A Sublime, Heavenly Game Seven...

What a wet, wild night of baseball it was, and in the end despite the efforts of Endy Chavez, the Cardinals rained down on the Mets, just as the heavens rained down on Shea. Game 7 of the NLCS, a game started by arguably the worst pair of pitchers in a game seven ever. But what was most surprising: those same two pitchers throwing gems; Scott Rolen seemingly escaping Tony La Russa’s dog house by depositing a Oliver Perez fastball a foot over the fence; Chavez going that foot above the fence to bring that ball back and then doubling Jim Edmonds off first to boot; Rolen responding by tossing an easy grounder, with a man running from first, over the Hudson into Manhattan, or Jeff Suppan getting out of that mess, with the bases loaded and one out. Where do you begin? Do you start with the efforts of NLCS MVP Suppan and his two hitter, or the game winning two run home run by Yadier Molina. Or, do you start with the finish, where rookie Adam Wainwright, with his college freshman scruff, allowed the bases to load with two outs and Cardinal killer Carlos Beltran (9 home runs and a Bonds-esque 1.280 OPS in 51 post season at bats against Cardinal pitching) coming up.

Yet earlier in that inning, did Mets manager Willie Randolph make a mistake by sending Cliff Floyd to the plate, after Jose Valentin and Chavez made the chests of Cardinal fans everywhere tighten, by hitting dinky little singles? Does Randolph deserve to be second guessed? Absolutely not, because he managed brilliantly in this series, but would the Mets have been better served sending somebody mobile to the plate? Floyd could not run, he was a huge threat to hit into a rally killing double play, he’s not a good bunter so he wasn’t going to move the runners, he was up there solely to deposit the ball over the fence… instead he struck out. Wainwright’s big looping curve ball falling from the heavens like the rain that continually plagued this series. Falling from above and dropping right into the strike zone. What a curve ball, incredible.

Of course, Wainwright couldn’t find the strike zone when he walked Paul Lo Duca, which brings us back to Carlos. As Beltran walked to the plate, I had enough time to email my girlfriend at work, update the situation and then email her again to say that the tension was going to make me ill, tension for whom? Certainly not for Wainwright, who after losing the Mets worst hitters, throws his curve for a strike, a fast ball which Beltran fouls off, and… that curve again, that sublime looping curve falling, falling, falling… Beltran… watching. Bases loaded, up two runs, facing the other team’s best hitter, Adam Wainwright throws three pitches, only one of which Beltran even swings at, and home plate umpire Tim Welke punches St Louis into the World Series. It really doesn’t get any more sublime.

Surely to some degree, this victory erases a few of Tony La Russa’s playoff demons. If the Cards win the Series, then it certainly makes up for 1988 and 1990 when La Russa’s superior Bash Brother A’s lost to the LA Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds. Tony’s critics argue that his teams play tight. Superior teams quailing under the expectations, and thus, despite a sterling regular season record, failing in October. This team had no expectations. None. Every pundit ranked them eighth of the eight playoff teams, but now they are in the World Series. And La Russa got there without a huge contribution from Albert Pujols, who was intentionally walked twice last night. When you only have one great hitter, the decision to give him a free pass is an easy one, why get beat by Pujols? Make somebody else hurt you. For the Mets it was a successful strategy --- certainly cleanup hitter Juan Encarnacion didn’t hurt them --- until Yadier Molina came up in the eighth. The catcher hit 6 home runs in 417 at bats during the season, but smacked 2 homers in 23 at bats in the NLCS. For sending a ball soaring up into the sky, where rain had pelted down all night, Molina is the hero. It’s all about timing and Molina’s timing Thursday night was perfect. It wasn’t Carpenter, it was Suppan. It wasn’t Pujols, it was Molina. It wasn’t pretty, but for La Russa and the Cardinals, it was heavenly.

He's Aloof, Can't Hit in the Clutch, makes 25 million, and oh Yeah, These Teams Want Him...

After another disappointing playoff series, the trade-ARod clamor is clogging up chat rooms like the Triple Pork Egg Benny’s (with maple syrup) I ate for breakfast this morning. Now, Brian Cashman, the Yankees GM, has attempted to quell those rumors, but really his pleas that ARod isn’t going anywhere are falling on deaf ears. Which of course is a good thing, given that playing around with possible superstar trades is the kind of thing someone in my position finds particularly enjoyable.

Lets begin by acknowledging that all this anti ARod nonsense is, well… nonsense. We are talking about a player who has hit 464 home runs in his first ten years in baseball. He fields two positions extremely well (despite a mid season bout of the WTFs), gets on base, and drives in runs. Sure, he’s overpaid, perhaps he’s not the most cuddly of players, and his postseason record leaves something to be desired, but those concerns are all red herrings. Firstly, he’s no longer really overpaid, not for the Yankees and not for anybody looking to acquire him. The Texas Rangers are so kindly paying roughly 1 million. The Yankees, or whatever team picks up his deal, will only owe ARod 64 million for the next four years. Sure it’s not chump change, but considering that Alfonso Soriano just turned down a 75 million five year deal and that Carlos “a year from now I’ll be DHing” Lee is looking for four years at 65+, getting an excellent fielder who will break 600 home runs in your uniform isn’t a bad idea.

Second, his postseason stats aren’t terrible (.280, .362, .485) and more importantly it’s an incredibly small sample size. The same was once said of Ted Williams, Mike Schmidt, and Barry Bonds. That’s because each of them went through a stretch like ARod’s 11-60 streak in his past three playoff series. It’s not indicative of him as a player, it’s a cold streak. Players go through hot streaks and cold streaks. It sounds pedantic and it is, but you cannot judge anything over 16 games. Nothing. And the clubhouse thing, I mean really, what are we eight years old here? Baseball history is full of sordid players who were asses. Guys far worse than ARod, it doesn’t matter. They aren’t literally sitting in trenches going to war together, they’re figuratively sitting in trenches going to war together. There’s a difference. Really, I swear. ARod being aloof isn’t going to affect whether his second baseman makes the turn and throw on a double play, and it’s not going to stop the runner rounding third from sprinting home on an ARod hit. Most importantly it’s not going to make the starting pitcher any better or any worse. ARod’s abilities on the other hand, will help the starting pitcher both in the field, and by putting runs on the board. There’s a famous quote in baseball, “momentum’s only as strong as the next day's starting pitcher.” Well the same thing can be said of chemistry. Every single World Series winner had good chemistry, but not because they were all chummy and had some gritty glue guys holding them together in the clubhouse, because they won. All that other stuff is just garbage perpetuated by a New York media which feeds a rabid, frothing readership with a heightened sense of baseball entitlement.

Other teams know that having ARod in the lineup, hitting third or fourth, not sixth or eighth, improves their team despite all this ridiculous nonsense (in fairness, Cashman seems to know this too). ARod has said that he wants to remain a Yankee and that he’ll never agree to a trade, but most insiders believe that there is a little lip service involved in this and that if the right situation were to arise, ARod would see that leaving NY is exactly what he needs to bring the gleam back to his career. Still, even if ARod is available, not everyone will have a shot at him. He’s not going to consent to a lost cause or tiny small market team, so you wont see him going to: the Royals, Reds, Rockies, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals, or Devil Rays. Nor is he likely to return to either of his previous homes, so Seattle and Texas are both out. Even if ARod wanted to go there and a good deal were on the board, you know that the Yankees would never, ever agree to send him to Boston. For that matter they likely wouldn’t want to face him 19 times a year in an Orioles or Jays uniform (pity…). And, despite his reasonable remaining contract, ARod is still too expensive for the tight budgets in Oakland, Minnesota, and Cleveland (which is a shame for the Yankees, as all three could offer great deals). Finally, despite his prowess, these four teams have all stars already at both short and third, so don’t expect him to pack for Florida, Atlanta, Arizona (well, not exactly all stars yet, but just be patient), or the Mets. That still leaves 10 teams who would be chomping at the bit to get ARod. Now, if the Yanks are moving him, then the reason is that they’re looking for pitching. So in each deal a starter must be acquired as the primary piece of the return package. They also need youth at catcher, a first baseman, and somebody to replace Rodriguez at third. Every team has their own untouchable player and most of the time those are aces. So, ARod isn’t going to bring Chris Carpenter in return from the Cards, nor will he garner Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs, or Roy Oswalt from the Astros, but outside of those three and perhaps another ace or two, ARod could and should warrant a top flight pitcher. Here are the ten teams and the package that I think the Yankees could reasonably ask for, from the least likely, to the most.

Cardinals Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes.
Analysis: A great location for ARod to end up, he’d bump David Eckstein to second and play beside Scott Rolen. Fans in St Louis are blindly loyal to Cardinal players and guys always love the organization. The problem is that outside of the untouchables (Carpenter and Albert Pujols), the Cardinals roster and farm system are barren. Wainwright and Reyes might be more than the Cards can bear to lose and otherwise they have nothing to offer.

Phillies Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Cole Hamels, Pat Burrell, and Abraham Nunez.
Analysis: Another uninspiring package. Nunez is a below average utility player and Burrell is an expensive bat off the bench, so the gem here is Hamels who showed flashes of brilliance in his first season, has incredible control and an experienced savvy which belies his youth. Still, what makes this particularly unlikely is that ARod would play third for the Phillies and most feel him returning to short is key to dropping the trade clause.

Giants Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez.
Analysis: Like the Cardinals, San Francisco has shown itself to be a warm environment to hometown players, even if they have hyper inflated heads (arrogant or otherwise), but also like the Cards, the Giants roster lacks desirable talent. Given that he’s one of their few future bright spots, I’m not certain the Giants offer Cain, but the kid with BIG time potential is the only realistic trade bait on the west side of the Bay Area.

Astros Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Brad Lidge and Jason Hirsch.
Analysis: The Astros desperately need offence, especially at shortstop where Adam Everett has a fabulous glove, but couldn’t hit the ball off a T. Lidge would be a monster set-up man for Rivera, and while Hirsch had a rocky introduction to the bigs, he was Houston’s top rated prospect at the start of last year. Lidge brings a lot to the table, but this package is downgraded over questions what Hirsch will bring in 2007.

Padres Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Bard, and Clay Hensley.
Analysis: I actually love this package, which fills three holes for the Yankees, so it only languishes in sixth because the Yanks need for top flight pitching supersedes their other needs. Despite a great first season, Hensley only grades out as fourth starter, not an ace. If the Padres really want ARod, then swapping Jake Peavy for Hensley, and including him in a package with Gonzalez would jump the Padres to the front of the que.

Tigers Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Jeremy Bonderman, Jordan Tata and Brandon Inge.
Analysis: Tiger ownership has shown themselves willing to spend money and GM Dave Dombrowski is smart enough to know that he needs to upgrade their offence if they hope to replicate this years success. The Tigers certainly have the arms to make a deal and ARod might consent to play for Jim Leyland, but if the Tigers indeed win the World Series then ARod might not want to be jumping on the coat tails.

Angels Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jeff Mathis.
Analysis: LA’s obviously a great market for ARod and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno has said he’s going to add a big name this offseason. The Angels have so many top prospects that the Yanks would be mad not to give them a call and try to sort something out. Of course, those prospects are so plentiful (and cheap) that trading them away for ARod might not be something conservative Angels GM Bill Stoneman wants to do.

Dodgers Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Chad Billingsley and Andy LaRoche.
Analysis: Like the Angels, the Dodgers have a plethora of prospects they could add to this if they really wanted to make a deal. Also like the Angels, the Dodgers need some offence and star power. Billingsley and LaRoche could both contribute to the Yankees next year, or if the Yanks prefer they could ask for Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Elbert, or even Andre Ethier. All good options worth New York’s consideration.

Cubs Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Rich Hill and Mark Prior.
Analysis: The rumor on the street is that the Cubs will hire Lou Piniella, making the Cubs ARod’s top choice. The only hitch being that the Cubs wont include either Zambrano or Derek Lee. So, if I’m the Yanks I get risky and ask for Prior. It’s the type of deal which will ultimately see one GM fired, but if he pitches for the Yanks, it really pays off. Hill, a top pitching prospect, is insurance.

White Sox Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Joe Crede, Brandon McCarthy, and Brian Anderson.
Analysis: If ARod goes anywhere, Chicago seems the most likely destination. Sox GM Kenny Williams has shown a proclivity for the big deal, and he’s shown that he’s not afraid to deal heroes from their championship roster if it makes his team better. McCarthy’s ready to start and Crede’s the kind of guy New Yorkers will love. ARod could play short and join Jose Contreas as Yankee castoffs who flourish in the South Side.

Expect Nothing, Everything, or at Least the Unexpected...

I guess this is why they play the games. The smart money Friday night was on the Cardinals winning and win they did. If I told you that a closer blew the game, no doubt you’d believe it to be the Cardinals precocious Adam Wainwright, not the Mets Billy Wagner. Even if I told you that the Cards won and asked you to guess how, I’m sure you’d have begun by telling me about starter Chris Carpenter and his fabulous October record. Of course he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, so they won in spite of his work, not because of it. Finally if I told you a Cardinal hit a game winning home run, the smart money would have to be on Albert Pujols, the decent money on Edmonds, the risky money on Rolen, the sCrappy money on Eckstein, the replacement money on Spezio, and the rookie money on Duncan, but nobody’s money, anywhere, would have been on So Taguchi, he of the 16 career home runs. Yet there he was, a defensive replacement for Duncan in the eighth, sending a Wagner fastball into the New York skyline to end an improbable night in Queens.

The series now heads back to St Louis, where the Mets will hand the ball to Steve Trachsel, Oliver Perez, and (after only three days rest) the ageless Tom Glavine. The Cardinals counter with Jeff Suppan, Anthony Reyes, and… Jeff Weaver? Seriously, is this what National League baseball has come to? That a guy who was pounded out of the AL with a 6.29 ERA will be tabbed to start on three days rest as though he’s Randy Johnson. Glavine has traditionally been terrible when throwing on three days rest, but can the Cardinals be any better with Weaver (who admittedly was very good in game 1). Either way, can there be any doubt that the AL champion will wipe the floor with whoever makes it out of this craptastic pitchers duel? Of course there can, because this is baseball and weird things happen in baseball.

By all appearances, after their sixth straight victory that AL team waiting for the NL champion will be the Tigers, whose hitters are peaking at the right time and whose pitchers are unbelievable. I’m not sure what Cuban voodoo dolls Tigers manager Jim Leyland found when he was managing the Marlins, but he obviously brought them to Detroit (which begs the question, did he forget to unpack them in Colorado, did the mountain air negate their power? Did Dante Bichette find them strewn on the buffet table and eat them? These are questions we need answers to), because Kenny Rogers just threw his second straight gem (2 hits, 6 Ks, and only 2 walks in 7.1 innings, giving him a 15 shutout innings this postseason), and those Tigers pitchers are looking like the great Dodgers of the mid sixties. I know that two years ago the Red Sox came back from 3-0 down, but remember that was the first time in baseball history, so yes it can be done, but that doesn’t mean it will. The Tigers are a good story and if any franchise deserves a little success it’s certainly them.

Still, I cannot help feeling badly for Oakland who had the best team in baseball in 2001, 2002 and probably even 2003. Like the Cleveland teams of the mid to late nineties, you look back at those A’s and go, wow. There was the three headed pitching monster (Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito), the top closer (Jason Isringhausen), the MVP first baseman (Jason Giambi), and MVP shortstop (Miguel Tejada), the all star third baseman (Eric Chavez), all star right fielder (Jermaine Dye), and even fancy mid season acquisitions (centerfielder Johnny Damon). Yet because baseball is a inherently random, those teams failed survive the first round, and because the players were really good, they priced themselves out of Oakland. So now you have Zito, who maybe made his final start for Oakland and Chavez, whose injuries have limited his offence (although not his defense). And while Oakland GM Billy Beane remains one of the best at putting competitive players on the field for reasonable prices, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the A’s under his stewardship are destined to always fall short. This is in no way indicative of Beane, nor a call for his removal, but just as John Hart’s great moves never resulted in a World Series title, it seems like Beane’s moves in Oakland will somehow continually fall short. He might be the best GM in the Majors, but in Baseball, some things just don’t happen the way you’d expect.

Oops I did it WRONG again...

It was an incredibly poor performance really. Lost job bad, actually. No, not Joe Torre’s job managing the Yankees against Detroit, but my job picking the Baseball playoffs winners. Just because I’m a glutton for punishment, lets do a little casual review: I picked the Yankees in three, Tigers won in four; I picked the Twins in five, A’s swept; I picked the Dodgers in four, the Mets swept; and finally, I picked the Padres in four, but the Cards won it instead. Personally, I think that I should at least get some credit for picking the correct number of games in the Cards – Padres series, but that’s just me. As for the rest of it, well, it’s not pretty. In fact, it’s downright ugly. Oh-fer, ouch. Hey, that’s why they play the games, I’m just here because I know the correct uses of :their, there, and they’re, not because I have ay special prognostication abilities. I mean lets face it, if I had any real insight, I’d be sitting at the bookies, not in front of the computer (not that Achanceyougottatake Sports condones gambling, lets be clear about this, we do not condone gambling… but winning money does have its benefits). All we can do after such a terrible showing is to pore ourselves a stiff drink, look back at our mistakes and learn some lessons for the future. That way, in about two hundred years I should be almost perfect, or if not perfect, at least able to predict that the Dodgers don’t have the power to beat the Mets.

So, since every thing I said before the division series was wrong and since we wont be seeing a San Diego – New York series, I need to make some sort of prediction. So, let me see, uhmmm… ahh… I have NO idea. Ok, lets do something radical here, lets get out that old magic Tupence and flip for it, ready? No, I can’t do that? Unscientific? What do you mean unscientific? We’re not just talking about any old coin here, it’s a Tupence. And not just any Tupence, but a magic Tupence. Magic! Well, no I don’t think that Peter Gammons ever consulted a magic Tupence, but what’s your point? Yes he is in the Hall of Fame, yes he’s probably the greatest baseball writer of all time, but… Ok, sweetie you’re right. If Peter wouldn’t use a magic Tupence then I shouldn’t either. But just remember that this was your idea…

Oakland – Detroit:

Pitching Edge – Well both staffs are very good and very deep. Both bullpen’s throw hard and throw strikes. The edge probably goes to Detroit who were slightly better during the regular season.

Hitting Edge – Frank Thomas is the best hitter in what is generally a weak hitting series. Detroit’s guys lack patience in the batters box, a weakness which could be exposed against Barry Zito and his big sweeping curve. Neither are great, but Oakland’s offence has the better chance to put runs on the board.

Managing Edge – Both guys are well regarded, of course Detroit’s Jim Leyland is worshipped and he’s got the ring. However, neither man in infallible. Leyland seems to have drunk the same Nieif Perez cool aid that Dusty Baker drank and Oakland’s Ken Macha is devaluing Danny Haren by pegging Esteban Loaiza to start game two. As I said, Leyland’s got the ring, but he’d better keep Perez’s butt on the pine.

X-factor – Well the X-factor could be Detroit’s young pitchers, but they seemed to slay that particular dragon when they beat the tar out of the Yankees, so I’m going to say that it’s Oakland’s Rich Harden, who Macha has pegged to pitch game three and (potentially) game 7. How healthy is Harden? How sharp is his stuff? How many innings can he go? If Harden pitches like the ace he is, then Oakland gets a huge edge, but if he’s still recovering from the myriad of injuries which held him out all summer then…

Bottom Line: Pitching, pitching, pitching. That is what this series will come down to. I like both staffs, but I like the Tigers’ guys just a little bit more. Unless Harden’s in top form, I like the Tigers in seven.

New York – St Louis:

Pitching Edge – Without Pedro Martinez, Chris Carpenter is hands down the best pitcher in this series, but since he finished off the Padres in game four, he wont go until game three. Really this is the ugliest pitching lineup ever in the Playoffs. The game four match-up is a scintillating duel between rookie Anthony Reyes (5.06 ERA) and trade throw-in Oliver Perez (6.55). Given the starters, this series is about the bullpen. Which means I give a h-U-g-e edge to the Mets and their number one ranked pen.

Hitting Edge – Uhhmmm… well my regular readers know the hard on I get at the mere mention of Albert Pujols, but besides him the Cards have the broken down Scott Rolen, the ageing Jim Edmonds, and the scrappy (which is a lot like crappy, but with an S in front of it) David Eckstein; the Mets have the indomitable Carlos Beltran, who hit four home runs in seven exceptional games the last time he played against Pujols in an NLCS, but they also have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Cliff Floyd. So again, the h-U-g-e edge goes to the Mets.

Managing Edge – Tony LaRussa has his fans and his detractors, but this is his eleventh time in the post season, so he’s no novice to the pressure and mind games of October ball. The Mets Willie Randolph is taking his first crack, but he learned his trade sitting beside Joe Torre. Toss up really, but I give the edge to LaRussa.

X-Factor – Chasing the Mets starters. Given how banged up his starters were Willie Randolph went to his bullpen early in the Division Series. With the extra work that they’ve been exposed to, the Mets relievers could wear out if the Cards can put repeated early pressure on them.

Bottom Line: St. Louis’ rotation is an embarrassment. Just ugly. Jeff Weaver is starting game one, that’s right, the same Jeff Weaver who was canned by the Angels earlier this year. I wouldn’t bet against Carpenter, but other than him the Cards are in trouble. I like the Mets in five.

The Funky Smell of Crappy Ball Players...

Do you smell that? It’s funky, like really expensive cheese or my feet after a long day in sandals… It’s the ripe smell of three week old spinach, or yesterday’s egg salad sandwich. It’s the prawn shells rotting in the garbage or a flat filled with 21 year old boys. No, the deeper I smell, the harder I sniff, I think the waft floating through the window is Clint Barnes, Josh Towers and the rest of baseball’s worst players. No, not the guys who just cannot cut it and were sent back down to the minors, or allowed to rot on the back end of the bench, but the truly terrible guys who drastically affected the baseball races by underperforming every day. They aren’t totally at fault, their managers deserve blame for allowing them to continue taking the field every day, and their GMs deserve blame for signing them to contracts in the first place. In general this isn’t about injury, guys cannot help getting hurt --- it happens to everybody, and it’s not really about picking on terrible teams. It’s about players who just shouldn’t be getting 500 at bats, or the ball every fifth day. Guys, plain and simple, who stink.

The stat listed alongside the smelly bastards’ name is VORP. If you don’t know what VORP is, check it out here, but basically Albert Pujols led the league with 86, Tampa Bay’s Johnny Gomes was at exactly zero and everyone of these guys were below zero. Which essentially means they were worse than my Grandma fishing out her faded mitt, throwing on the old bloomers and standing in the box to stare down Randy Johnson.

C – B. Ausmus, Astros (-16.9): The Astros, bless their loyal little souls, seem content to allow Ausmus to play until his cataracts are so bad he cannot see the ball; not that it would affect things any, because he already can’t hit the thing. Never known for his bat, he’s taken imeptitude to a special level. His .230 batting average is bad, but his .285 slugging percentage, is just slightly better than what my dog posted this year.

1B – T. Lee, Devil Rays (-11.1): Like a number of players on this list, Lee is a good fielder, which if a guy cannot hit doesn’t leave you with much. First base is a hitters position, it requires a guy who can occasionally drive in a run or put the ball over the fence. Lee’s 11 home runs and 31 RBIs aren’t exactly what I mean. His .756 OPS is near the top of the list of why the Rays had baseball’s worst offence. Lee should be on the roster of a team like the Yankees or Red Sox to play after the seventh inning of close games. He should not be appearing in anywhere near the 400 at bats he got with the Rays.

2B – R. Adams, Blue Jays (-10.3): I know better. I really do. You cannot predict with any certainty how guys will develop when you draft them. And high school pitchers are especially difficult to prognosticate, yet every time I hear Adams’ name, all I can think is… he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir, he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir, he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir, he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir, he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir, he was picked right in front of Scott Kazmir… It’s enough to drive a simple minded Jays fan insane.

SS – C. Barmes, Rockies (-21.1): Last year before losing a fight with a dead frozen dear (hey, these things happen. Jeff Kent once lost a fight with a sponge and Sammy Sosa with a sneeze. It a tough, tough business), Barmes was OPSing .867, then he came back, slumped through September and… well until the Rockies called up Troy Tulowitski to replace him, Barmes was the worst regular in baseball. His VORP is dead last, in large part to a .265 OBP. That stinks, worse than those eggs, worse than those rotting prawns, even worse than my feet and that’s saying something. The Rockies were better than expected this year, but unless Tulowitski fully unseats Barmes next year, contention will remain out of reach for baseball’s Mile High team.

3B – A. Nunez, Phillies (-18.3): Phillies GM Pat Gillick received a lot of credit for jettisoning David Bell, but what’s neglected in that credit is that for much of the season it was Nunez who benefited from those extra at bats. His .303 OBP is bad, his .273 slugging was worse, but both hurt the Phillies in a season where even the slightest production at third likely sees them in the playoffs.

LF – S. Podsednik, White Sox (-9.4): Nobody this year will be surprised to know that Podsednik has been bad, of course they would be surprised to know that he really wasn’t much better last year. Repeat after me, a .700 OPS is really, really bad, even if a guy hits .290 with 59 stolen bases. This year, his OBP dipped to .331, which is terrible for a leadoff hitter, no matter how fast or plucky he is. White Sox G.M. Kenny Williams will spend this offseason trying hard to replace Podsednik with a better bat, but I swear those of us who saw through his façade last year aren’t gloating, really we aren’t, well at least only a little…

CF – B. Anderson, White Sox (-11.0): My bad, I cannot lie. I claimed that the White Sox wouldn’t miss Aaron Rowand (sent to Philly in the Jim Thome trade), because Anderson would actually be better. Well, Rowand spent half the year injured and wasn’t particularly good the rest of the time, but he still managed a VORP of 8.6, which is just a teeny tiny itsy bitsy bit better than Anderson’s. If the Sox hadn’t allocated 1,000 at bats to Anderson and Podsednik, then they’re still playing baseball.

RF – D. Hollins, Devil Rays (-6.8): It hardly seems fair to choose another Ray, given that they are really a triple A team in a big, Big, BIG league division, but if you’re hopping to occasionally beat the Orioles, not to mention the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and oh yeah those pesky New York Yankees, well you need to stop giving prime at bats to guys like Hollins. A batting line of .228, .269, .423 absolutely kills a team. You cannot have a regular player who has a .269 OBP, you just cannot.

DH – C. Everett, Mariners (-10.3): If I were picking a GM to go with this team, Seattle’s Bill Bavasi might be the number one contender (assuming of course that the Royals Allan Baird was disqualified when the Royals separated themselves from his service). Everett used to be a questionable locker room presence with a good bat, now he’s just a questionable locker room presence.

Bench:

C – Doug Mirabelli, Red Sox (-7.9) The absurdity is that after being reacquired from the San Diego Padres, he was brought to the ballpark for his first game by police escort as though he was Babe Ruth returning to save the Red Sox… Five months later he was hitting .191 with a .267 OBP and he cost the Sox two players who ended the season on my Best Team list. Of course you couldn’t blame the Red Sox if they were actually re-acquiring Babe Ruth, but Mirabelli’s career OBP is .320. It even might have sufficed if he was the personal catcher returning home to catch Cy Young, but he was returning to catch Tim Wakefield. Come on people.

Inf. – J. McDonald, Blue Jays (-10.5): It’s not just that Adams was bad, it’s that he was bad and the man on the bench to replace him was McDonald. I actually like John, I was watching in Seattle when he cranked a grand slam off the Mariners, and he “seems” to hit almost every time I’m watching, but his OBP is .271 and you know what that means… Great if he’s a defensive replacement, but not when you need him for 286 at bats.

Inf. – T. Perez, Devil Rays (-19.3): It’s another pathetic Ray and I feel bad, I do, really, but what can I do. Honestly, there’s a reason that they scored the fewest runs in baseball. Perez was a part time, utility player and an extremely crap one at that.

Inf./OF – J. Mabry, Cubs (-12.6): In 2004 Mabry was a productive player off the bench for St. Louis and somehow everybody still thinks he still is. He isn’t. With a .607 OPS the Cubs are better off allowing the pitcher to hit.

OF. – L. Ford, Twins (-11.1): It’s remarkable that the Twins went on that run to the playoffs with Ford, of course going on that run had little to do with Ford and his anemic .599 OPS.

Starters:

B. Colon, Angels (-1.7): It isn’t exactly his fault that he hurt himself, but the Angels ace, and the reigning Cy Young winner, only gave his team 56 innings and with a plus 5 ERA to boot. He’s the ace of my crappy team.

M. Mulder, Cardinals (-15.4): Two years ago the Cardinals traded away Danny Haren and Kiko Calero to the A’s to secure the services of a dominant number two to pair with Chris Carpenter. Too bad the guy they got in return was Mulder, whose stuff just isn’t that good any more.

J. Piniero, Mariners (-13.4): Piniero was a really good rookie and has gotten since progressively worse. His VORP has gone from 46.9, to 18.7, to 2.3 to… this horrible embarrassment of a season. If he were the pitcher he showed M’s fans as a rookie, then maybe Carl Everett’s presence wouldn’t have been so bad.

J. Johnson, Indians/Red Sox (-4.6/-6.1): Nobody expected anything from Sidney Ponson and Jeff Weaver was a little (emphasis on the little) better with St Louis, but Johnson was being counted on to help Cleveland’s playoff charge and after being cut he then managed to sabotage the Red Sox season as well. Bang up job of crappiness.

J. Towers, Blue Jays (-18.5): The Jays season was flushed down the drain by their fifth pitchers. It’s not like I had high expectations for Towers, I certainly wasn’t hopping for anything like what he gave us last year, but seriously… Until Hayden Penn’s September call-up, Towers had the worst VORP in the majors, which means that the Jays gave 12 starts to the worst pitcher in baseball. And of course if we’d picked Kazmir instead of Adams then we wouldn’t have signed Towers to that two year contract. Sigh…

Relievers:

C. Polite, White Sox (-9.4): During their championship run, Polite was the White Sox’s top man out of the bullpen. He threw 67 innings with a 2.01 ERA, but this year Polite was less effective. He managed only 30 innings and his 8.70 ERA was a teeny bit worse.

J. Romero, Angels (-7.9): The Angels thought they were getting a top flight lefty arm when they brought him over from Minnesota, unfortunately they also used him against righties. His 1.22 WHIP against lefties was solid, but righties hit a robust .382 against him, which no doubt contributed to his 6.70 ERA.

B. Chen, Orioles (-15.1): The great Leo Mazzone couldn’t do anything to help Chen, who was ineffective in both his role as spot-starter and reliever. Any stinky team needs a really bad long reliever and Chen, with his 6.93 ERA is our feet funk man.

G. Majewski, Reds (-4.0): Considering that the Reds gave up Austin Kearns to get Majewski, he was a huge disappointment. Missing the playoffs cannot be entirely blamed on him, the Reds were overachieving to begin with, but Majewski was brought in at great cost and did nothing but stink.

C. Reitsma, Braves (-8.4): It finally happened, after 14 seasons the Braves finally missed the playoffs. Despite what their fans might think, it was bound to happen at some point. Ironically, it was ultimately the pitching staff that brought them down. While Reitsma isn’t specifically at fault, his pathetic job in relief is indicative of a porous pen no longer coached by Mazzone.

D. Turnbow (closer), Brewers (-12.6): Last years surprise closer, showed that he was less stud finisher and more stinky fromage. From 39 saves with a 1.74 ERA to 24 with a 6.87, just shows that there’s nothing that cannot be made funky with a little time to mold. The perfect closer to our crap team.

Just remember boys and girls, on this Canadian Thanksgiving, to be thankful that your team had these extremely terrible players who ensured that now you are enjoying the wonderful exploits of the NHL season, rather than caring about some silly old baseball playoffs. And, finally, if you think that you smell something really funky in your bedroom this offseason, be careful to check under your bed. It might be that Thai dish you ate last week, it might be your gym socks forgotten in their bag, or it might Josh Towers preparing for another great season…

A 43,000 Champagne Group Shower...

This is why they play the games. It was an obvious result: one of the greatest offences ever assembled against a talented but young pitching staff. Every single prognosticator, including this stubby, repentant boy, chose the Yankee’s hitters to slug Detroit’s pitchers like a piñata at a Boxing Party, but instead the Yankees slugged like my niece at a tea party. It was quaint the way they stood up at the plate and waved their little sticks, blinding swatting at whatever Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman decided to throw at them. Rogers, known as a four month pitcher, found a fifth month which agreed with him. He might not be able to throw well in August and September, but he looked pretty good in his October debut. And then there was Bonderman. With the Yankees season on the line, with Joe Torre, Gary Sheffield, and (especially) Alex Rodriguez’s Yankee lives hanging in the balance, Bonderman stepped up and no-hit the Yankees for five innings. During that time he threw 6 balls. The team that had scored 5.7 runs per game during the year, looked more tepid Devil Ray than dominant Yankee. And how in an elimination game were the Yankees starting Jarret Wright? And backing him up with Corey Lidle. Was it any surprise when Wright was chased after two and two-thirds of an inning? Or that Lidle only last another inning and a third? Next year the Yankees should have Phillip Hughes to start that fourth game, because if the Yankees really want to dominate baseball, then Wright should never again start a playoff game for them.

As the game finished, after Bonderman left with an 8-1 lead and two outs away from victory, the story was about the Yankees and how George Steinbrenner would react to this latest playoff defeat, but when Jamie Walker got Robinson Cano to weakly ground out to second base, and the Tigers players erupted with the elation borne in 2003’s 119 loss season, the story changed. The Tigers players went into their locker room, they broke out the Champagne, they drenched one another. It was a moving celebration for a Franchise that hadn’t won a playoff series since 1984. Normally teams celebrate victory in the Division Series the way I celebrate a successful prostate exam, yet the Tigers were genuinely ecstatic, bursting out of the locker rooms and back onto the field to share the celebration with their fans. People who supported the team even as it’s playoff-less streak stretched to 18 years. People who watched the team lose 96 games in 2001, 106 in ’02, a record 119 in ’03, 90 in ’04, and 91 games last year, a five year run of .379 ball. But those who remained through that long playoff draught and the especially dreadful past five years were rewarded as legend Jim Leyland returned to baseball at the helm of their team.

From 71-91 to 95-67 the Tigers and their fans were just happy to be in the playoffs. Compare that to the Yankees and their fans. Can you imagine if ARod had played for the Tigers this year? His 35 home runs and 121 RBI would make him a hero, but in NY where the expectations are a World Series victory and nothing less, he’s a goat. There were no goats this year for the Tigers, only heroes. And Saturday afternoon in Detroit those heroes were vindicated. They showed all those experts, all those idiots like yours truly, that the maxim, ‘great pitching always beats great hitting’ should never be forgotten. They shared their victory with themselves and then they flooded back onto the field to share it with the 43,000 faithful who remained, cheering their heroes, at a time when most stadiums would already be barren. The Tigers players brought their champagne bottles with them and they showered the fans in the victorious liquid. It was blissful pandemonium, players running the stadium, slapping every hand they could find; Rogers drenching a police officer, rubbing the liquid into the beleaguered, but blissful officer.

As a fan you always dream of being in the locker room with your heroes, being drenched with the champagne, sharing in the euphoria of victory. The Tigers’ players , who couldn’t bring the fans into the locker room, took the locker room to the fans. It was a meaningful and moving celebration, a truly spectacular display of emotion from both player and fan and it was totally and utterly deserved. Now while the Yankees must ask what went wrong, the Tigers look forward to the Oakland A’s and more postseason ecstasy.

Somebody Get Some Pants on that Kid...

These are the precocious young talents, the tricycle driving, soother sucking, block building babies of the league. And Baseball’s Father Stork must have been busy this offseason, because this is a phenomenally gifted, incredibly deep crop of rookies. I guarantee that when you look back at this team in five years you’ll be blown away, at that point we might be able to anoint it the best ever. But that’s for another day, today we can just marvel against how good they were in 2006. There isn’t a position in which I didn’t have a choice to make (although sometimes it was easy) and the particularly remarkable group were the relievers. Normally for the rookie team I only pick a right handed starter, maybe a lefty, and a closer, but this year had so many good pitchers I was able to pick an entire pitching staff. The starters were the ones who got the big press, but guys like Cla Meredith and Joel Zumaya made my big league team, and another couple of guys were very close. So without any further adieu, lets start naming these baby greats. Time spent in the majors matters, even though Delmon Young and Adam Lind were awesome, they were late season call ups and really had no influence on the outcome of the season, as a rough rule of thumb, I was looking for 250 plate appearances for hitters and more than 50 innings for pitchers. Also, like the Big Club, I value long term potential, but I do place a greater emphasis on what guys did in 2006 than with the Big team (and obviously salary isn’t a consideration, since generally these guys are all paid the minimum). Finally I didn’t include the Mariners Kenji Johjima, while he is technically a rookie (and therefore should be included in ROY discussions), he’s a veteran of professional baseball, is older than me and thus doesn’t really fit in with what this team is about.

C – Russell Martin, Dodgers: Naturally the Dodgers catcher gets bonus points for being Canadian (although not that many, because he’s from Ontario…), but he didn’t really need them. An early season surprise for the Dodgers, Martin finished fourth among N.L. catchers with 65 RBI and first among rookie backstops with a 20.1 VORP.

1B – Prince Fielder, Brewers: The reason the Brewers were willing to trade away Lyle Overbay was because they absolutely needed to get the son of Cecil into the lineup. It’s certainly not a decision they’ve regretted. The LARGE kid, led rookies with 28 home runs and rookie first basemen with 17 win shares.

2B – Dan Uggla, Marlins: Howie Kendrick, Josh Barfield, and probably Ian Kinsler will all be better, but none of them had seasons anywhere near as strong as Uggla. Despite a terrible September, the 26 year was third among rookies with 22 win shares and he lead rookie second basemen with a VORP of 40.0 (fifth in the Majors among all 2 baggers).

SS – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins: A top five fielder among NL shortstops, and the far away leader in VORP among rookies with 55. Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki and Arizona’s Stephen Drew may be great one day, but Ramirez already is.

3B – Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals: Leads all rookies with 110 RBI, plays gold glove caliber defense and has shown a proclivity to knock in runs during important moments in the game (what the old folks like to call… clutch). 25 win shares and a VORP of 28, -he’d have been a lock for ROY in almost any other year

RF – Nick Markakis, Orioles: It took him two months to get acclimated to the Majors and he’s had a slight swoon in September, but in the middle months he was awesome, highlighted by an August in which he hit 10 homers, with 26 RBI and an OPS of 1.140. He’s going to be a beast.

CF – Luke Scott, Astros: When the Preston Wilson experiment in Houston crashed horribly to the ground (did you see that, yup that’s right, sweet little NASA reference right there), the Astros lucked out when Scott emerged. His VORP, 30.8, is third among rookies and his OPS is a very robust 1.086. No, he wont be this good next year, but the Astros wouldn’t have made that almost playoff run without him.

LF – Josh Willingham, Dodgers: Andre Eithier was the flashier player and he might ultimately be the better one, but Willingham was a consistent producer for the Marlins, hitting 26 home runs and batting a respectable .277, with a 28.5 VORP.

Starters:

Francisco Liriano, Twins – Obviously he was only a four month player, but those four months allowed him to lead rookie pitchers with a 50.7 VORP. Lets all hope that he gets healthy, because he’s a joy to watch.

Justin Verlander, Tigers – Detroit was this season’s biggest surprise and Verlander front lines that. His VORP is 46 and he has 15 win shares. Baring injury, he’s going to be a Cy Young contender for most of the next decade.

Jered Weaver, Angels – Want to talk about a phenomenon, try going 9-0 to start your big league career. Scouts attribute his success to phenomenal command, but believe his stuff grades out more as a second starter. Great, I’d love the Jays to have him and his 11-2, 2.56 stat line.

Matt Cain, Giants – His ERA, 4.15, doesn’t look impressive, but he’s a big time pitcher with ace quality stuff. His 12 win shares trails only the three guys above him.

Scott Olsen, Marlins – Teammate Josh Johnson has better numbers and teammate Annibal Sanchez has the no-hitter, but Olsen’s a big lefty, who’s going to be the best of the Marlins’ young hurlers. So, I’m bestowing him with the fifth spot.

Relievers:

Joel Zumaya, Tigers – Perhaps the most sensational pitcher of the season. Phenomenal stuff, a great reliever. Might be shifted back to starting, but more likely the Tigers future closer.

Cla Meredith, Padres – Both Zumaya and Meredith made my big Boys team. They were awesome. Meredith made one bad pitch (which Albert Pujols pounded over the fence in a desperate attempt to salvage St. Louis’ season) all season. His ERA wont always be 1.07, but he’s no fluke.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals – Another future starter (probably next year), Wainwright momentarily made Tony LaRussa forget that he hates rookies, by having an impressive 8.49 K/BB and 1.15 WHIP. Make pitches and keep hitters off the bases and Tony will call your name 60 times as well.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers - At some point you begin to wonder what more you can write about relievers, but if you haven’t seen Broxton pitch this year --- and lets face it, you probably haven’t --- then you’re missing out. The kid’s a gamer, he’s tough, resilient, and talented.

Jake Woods, Angels – The Mariners and I actually have something in common, besides of course spending most of our year wearing a raincoat: like them, I’m glad that Woods took an extra year to develop into a great middle reliever. For the Mariners it meant they were able to easily acquire him from the Angels and for me it meant that in my fantasy league, my Buddy Big Sexy used a mid season trade on a reliever who pitched exactly one inning, recording no outs and giving up two runs; ahh, it always feels good watching his players stink.

Ramon Ramirez, Rockies – Humidor or no humidor, any rookie pitcher who can throw 44 innings with a 4.5 ERA in the Rocky Mountain air has a spot on my team (his 1.59 ERA on the road doesn’t hurt either).

Jonathan Papelbon (closer), Red Sox – What, you thought I was going to pick somebody else to close for the kiddies? H*!! No. Paps was the man. Plain and simple. 35 saves with a 0.92 ERA, 75 strike outs in 68 innings, only 13 walks. Wow. Too bad he got hurt near the end and their season went to a word which sounds suspiciously like “hit”, or he might have led the AL in saves. Oh well, there’s always next year…

An Entire Roster of Baseball's Best...

Everybody keeps boasting about how the Yankees have nine all stars in their lineup, which is incredibly impressive, believe you, me. Except for one intsy, bitsy, tiny problem. What does that mean? Honestly? Do you know who was an all star this year? Mark Redmond. This isn’t really meant to disparage Redmond, who’s an ok pitcher on a terrible team, just as it isn’t really meant to point out how good or bad the Yankees lineup is, but rather it’s to point out that being an All Star isn’t particularly impressive. Guys are selected as all stars because the fans in their city understand how to stuff electronic ballot boxes and guys are all stars because baseball insists on selecting a player from every team. Sometimes guys are all stars because they’re the best, but not always… If you really want to know which players are the best, touting the all stars isn’t the way to go, instead take a look below at the 25 man roster that you’d salivate over, if only your GM could figure out a way to pencil them into you team’s scorecard. Remember that while it’s extremely important how a player performed this year, this list isn’t just about a guys performance, it’s also about his contract, his age, these are the guys you want for your team, so that you can challenge the Yankees for the next decade; or put more accurately, these are the guys who at some point in the next decade will be beating your team while playing for the Yankees. Finally, we reward players for what they do, not for what others in a similar situation would do better. So, , relief pitchers and bench players are chosen from players who actually fill those roles, i.e. no keeping Vernon Wells on the bench as a defensive replacement, or fielding a bullpen of all closers.

Starters:

C – Joe Mauer, Twins… Brian McCann has had a phenomenal season for the Braves, but one of the reasons nobody is talking about him is Mauer (another, of course, is that the Braves missed the playoffs for the first time since I started watching baseball). The Minnesota backstop is a beast and despite being 23 he does it all: game calling, plate protection, throwing out runners, hitting third in the lineup of a division winner. He does it all, except hit homers and in the next year or two he’ll start drilling those.

1B – Albert Pujols, Cardinals… Ryan Howard has had a great first full season, but lets remember two things here: 1) despite this being his first full season, Howard is actually 26, the same age as Pujols. 2) Phat Al has already been doing this for five years and I’d rather tie my wagon to him than Howard.

2B – Chase Utley, Phillies… Nobody else is even really close. His VORP this year leads all other second basemen by 18 points.

SS – Derek Jeter, Yankees… Jose Reyes might take Jeter’s spot as soon as next year --- he is after all ten years younger, but Jeter was the best hitting shortstop in baseball this year. Whether you like him for his intangibles or for his 79.2 VORP, you have to admit that the Yankee captain is fully deserving.

3B – David Wright, Mets… Perhaps the hardest decision in this whole endeavor (seriously, I rewrote this three times, changing my mind, and then changing it back). I really wanted to choose David Wright and had he continued his first half pace, it would have been an easy choice, but his poor August and five home runs since the all star game allowed Cabrera to lap him in VORP (79.1 to 53.3). Clearly Cabrera is the better hitter and since they’re both 23 probably will continue to be, so why’d I choose Wright? Defense mostly. While Wright will be soon be battling Ryan Zimmerman for gold gloves, I’m not convinced that next year Cabrera wont be back in the outfield, or even at first.

RF – Vladimir Guerrero, Angels… Jermaine Dye has been better, but I cannot discount the previous three years. Vlady is pricey, but he’s a producer, despite never having adequate protection in the lineup. Yes, his range in right is only slightly greater than George Bush’s vocabulary, but he can still make runners pay with that cannon of an arm.

CF – Grady Sizemore, Indians… Here’s a quiz for you kids out there: Which center fielder had the highest VORP this year, a) Vernon Wells, b) Carlos Beltran, c) Andruw Jones, or d) Grady Sizemore? He’s the youngest of the bunch, has the most extra base hits, plays excellent defense (which I admit all four do), and costs the least (by far); Sizemore might actually be the best overall player in baseball and if he isn’t yet, he will be over the next five years.

LF – Matt Holliday, Rockies… His VORP is second in the majors among left fielders. Manny Ramirez is first, but given that the Flakey one makes 19 million more dollars, I’m happy to take the younger, more reliable player.

DH – Travis Hafner, Indians… If he hadn’t gotten hurt and missed September, Plonk might have broken 100 in VORP, something only Barry Bonds has accomplished in the past five years. I love Pujols, but Hafner is the best hitter in baseball.

Bench:

C – Josh Bard, Padres… One of the biggest reasons for the Red Sox’s collapse this season was panicking after Bard failed to catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. They shipped him off to San Diego for Doug Mirabelli, where Bard flourished as Mike Piazza’s back-up.

Inf. – Mark DeRosa, Rangers… DeRosa ended up getting over 500 at bats with the Rangers this year, by playing the Chone Figgins utility role. He obviously played over and above his ability, but having a guy who can field every position on the field is a nice luxury.

Inf. – Omar Infante, Tigers… Infante plays all the infield positions and hits above average. The Tigers greatest mistake this year, was trading for the useless Neifi Perez after 2B Placido Polanco was injured. Infante deserved those at bats.

OF – Reed Johnson, Blue Jays… Johnson is good with the glove and can play any of the three outfield spots, but he’s also a gritty hitter who works at bats, runs the bases and plays hard. Benefited when the injury to Alex Rios opened a regular spot for him, but by next year he will likely return to the bench, or a platoon role.

OF – David Delluci, Phillies… Not a terribly good fielder, but Delluci is a dangerous left handed hitter – which every bench needs. The Phillies season really took off when they

Starters:

Johan Santana, Twins… Won the CY Young two years ago and should have won last year, but was robbed because voters are too caught up about wins. Fortunately that wont be a problem this year, despite a late September blip, Santana has tied for the Major league lead in wins, and leads the majors in strikeouts and ERA. That’s what the old folks like to call the pitching triple crown.

Francisco Liriano, Twins… The Twins one-two was so good I thought, yeah ok, slice me off a piece o’that pie. Sure, I’d feel better about this if I didn’t have a sneaking suspicion that Liriano will miss next year with Tommy John surgery, but until he went down he was awesome, simply awesome. Among the baby pitchers, Verlander was great, Weaver exhilarating, and Florida’s quintuplets remarkable, but Liriano untouchable.

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees… In a rotation stocked with geriatrics Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina, and high priced busts Jarret Wright and Carl Pavano, it’s Wang who pitched well enough during the regular season to get the ball for game one of the playoffs. His strikeout rate is anemic and I’d expect that it’ll have to get better for him to have long term success, but this year he masterfully used his fielders and won 19 games.

Ervin Santana, Angels… Santana lacks consistency, but he’s got great stuff. If he masters spotting his pitches and gets a better understanding of the art of pitching, then watch out. Until then, he’s more than adequate as a teams fourth starter.

Jered Weaver, Angels… Teams go into every season with a fifth starter decided upon, but more often than not, that guy is quickly demoted though inefficiency or injury. Good teams have somebody in the minors to whom they can turn to help the club. After joining the team at the end of May, Weaver proceeded to rip off nine straight wins. He finished 11-2, 2.56, not bad for a mid-season call up.

Relievers:

Joel Zumaya, Tigers… Any reliever discussion has to begin with the Tigers big flame throwing righty who has electrified the Majors by repeatedly hitting 102 on the radar gun. Despite his precocious age, Zumaya dominated pitchers for an entire year.

Cla Meredith, Padres… Do you remember earlier when I discussed the terrible Red Sox trade for Mirabelli? Well guess who else went West with Bard. So, while the Boston pen hemorrhaged runs, Meredith has put together a 5-1 record with a 1.07 ERA.

Scott Shields, Angels… Shields remains a work horse, with three straight seasons of more than 90 relief innings. His arm never gets tired and he continues to be the preeminent set-up man in baseball.

Scott Proctor, Yankees… Joe Torre likes to find a pitcher or two and then ride him hard, this year Proctor is the man and he’s responded by throwing over 100 solid innings for the Yankees, no small feat for a player his age.

Denny Reyes, Twins… Want to know how the Twins went from seven games under .500 to 21 over? Pitching, pitching, and pitching. Santana is the star, Liriano the precocious talent, Joe Nathan the finisher, but Reyes has been the best of a very good bunch at bridging the gap between the ones and the other.

Mariano Rivera, Yankees… The aforementioned Nathan will soon be the best closer in baseball (and he is currently the best bargain), and rookie Jonathan Papelbon might have had the best season among closers before getting shut down in September, but Rivera remains the king and until he shows signs of slipping, he’s my closer.

A Sporadic Day of Baseball Observations... Part Three.

Observations from Game 3, Tigers (N. Robertson) v. Yankees (C. Wang):

- Joe Buck looks like a diminutive, white circumcised penis. Seriously, like a little circumcised penis. He talks like one too. I used to like him, but he’s quickly become the most annoying network number one in sports. Possibly even more arrogant than Al Michaels, which really, really says something. And just when you think it cannot get any worse, they show Tim McCarver. If Buck looks like a little penis, then McCarver definetly looks like his old, shriveled ball. So basically, what I’m saying is that Fox’s number one broadcast team is a diminutive, one test-ied penis. Seems fitting doesn’t it?

- Joe Torre has won something close to 10 million games --- give or take a couple --- and he has nine division titles, 6 A.L. pennants, and, oh yeah, four World Series, but seriously what is he doing with ARod? Is dropping him to the sixth spot after he’s hit fourth or fifth all year really going to help him overcome the perception that he isn’t clutch? Especially after he hit .358, .465. 651 in September. I mean honestly. Give it a rest already.

- Apparently the Tigers are starting Nate Robertson in game one because he’s tough against lefties. That’s good and everything, because the Yankees do have four lefties in the lineup and Posada is better from the left side, but ahh… what about the four righties? The Yanks had the third best OPS against lefties this year and that was without Sheffield all year. Good luck with those guys, Nate.

- I bet you one of those lefties kills Robertson at some point tonight.

- Damn, that was one heck of a great double play. Somebody earlier today suggested that the Yanks should be starting Jason Giambi over Sheffield at first, no way Giambi gets his big drugged up body down in the splits to catch that ball.

- Captain Yankee just showed some base running chops. Say whatever you want about Jeter, but he does love to play in the post season.

- Spike Lee’s sitting with Kevin Pollack? Really? Pollack? Him? In Pollack’s favor, he looked like the cool tough guy from Usual Suspects, not Walter Mathieu’s wimpy son from Grumpy Old Men, but still… I think Spike’s cool rating just went down five points. I love how Buck didn’t even acknowledge Pollack, just Spike… classic.

- And while typing that big rant the Yankees crossed the plate three times. That’s ok Robertson, just because you lost Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Sheffield all isn’t lost… you have the lefty Giambi and then that choker ARod, before Matsui. Honestly, you know ARod isn’t getting a hit, he’s not clutch, remember?

- Now they are talking about Giambi and how he recovered from the steroids debacle… and he tattoos it over the fence. I love how they have that whole discussion, without bringing up how Giambi went from being a scrawny (for him), hacking, 20 million man who that Yankees were desperately trying to dump to looking something remarkably like his old self. Miraculous, how his power came back. No doubt the result of his contrite apology for, ahh, something. Certainly has nothing to do with the fact that baseball still doesn’t draw blood to test for HGH. I’m not saying he’s guilty… I’m just saying I love how Buck and McCarver discuss the whole situation with blind acceptance of his recovery.

- Oh sure, ARod gets a hit now, the score’s 5-0. What a bum, trade him away Cashman. He sucks.

- I just re-read what I wrote earlier, no not the part about how McCarver’s a testicle and Buck his stubby little prick, but about how a lefty would hurt Robertson, well I’m here now to admit I was wrong… wrong, wrong, wrong… Two lefties hurt Robertson (even three if you remember that Damon’s dinky little hit started the inning). Five Yankee RBIs all from lefthanded hitters. Good thing they started a lefty.

- You have to love the celebrities watching in the Bronx. First we had Spike chillin’ with his homeboy Pollack, now we have the Donald, Philbin, and Dick Ebersol. We’re really busting the A-listers out here, aren’t we. Thank god I know that Regis Philbin is in the house, now I can rest easy tonight knowing that we were both watching the same game. And serisouly, how many people with terrible, terrible hair could they find to sit together and watch the game, what was Courtney Love not available as a female companion?

- Jeter caught in a run down and we’re going to the fifth. Maybe I should think about dinner…

- Oh sure, I start cooking in the kitchen and the Tigers start making a game of it… Wang’s looking a bit wonky.

- They’re talking to Ken Rosenthal, he’s the Peter Gammons of this group. I wish they talked to him every inning, instead of only once per game. Rosenthal looks like he wants to punch out Joe, who wont stop yammering about nearby celebrities. It’s almost comical, but just because Rosenthal looks like he’s considering whether the money’s worth conversing with this idiots.

- At no other stadium do they show so many shots of the fans. And not just the celebs, but all the fans. They just keep panning over them, which would be fine, except Yankee fans aren’t the most beautiful of people.

- Wang’s pitched a good game, I’m not sure why Torre’s pulling him. Their bullpen sucks, except of course for Mariano Rivera who cannot pitch more than an inning. I mean Myers, Villone, Farnsworth? Yikes.

- I miss “Take me out to the ball park..”

- My girlfriend just asked if the Yankees would get home field in the World Series, because the American League won the all star game… This might be my proudest moment. Seriously. Maybe even more than the first time she dropped the “combo.”

- Tigers just cannot capitalize on the Yanks middle relievers. Too bad. Fox has shown about four hundred shots of Rivera. Seriously. Four hundred. I know he’s good, but do I really need to watch him hopping up and down in an effort to get warm.

- A spectacular game by Jeter, just awesome. 5 for 5, capped off by a homer. Sublime. He even made some great plays in the field.

- Mariano’s in there, which means it’s over and my day of random blabbing to you is over. I’d like to thank my wonderful girlfriend for reluctant participation in 9 hours of baseball (and yes, she left part way to get her hair cut off, but she looks frickin’ hot so I forgive her). I hope you enjoyed all this baseball and I’ll see you tomorrow (although perhaps without so many words.

One more thought attached to Part Duex...

Not to seem like a Pujols whore, but the guy is the complete package. People who don't watch him paly think that he isn't going to be a good fielder, because he's a big boy... But they're idiots, look at him go down to his left, get up an make the throw to get them out of that inning. He can field.

A Sporadic Day of Baseball Observations... Part Two.

Observations from Game 2, Cardinals (C. Carpenter) v. Padres (J. Peavy):

- I think the Padres win this series, but the Cards best chance to take a game is today. Carpenter – Peavy’s a great match up. Jake hasn’t had his best season, but he’s been better than people think. Still, Carpenter is the Cards only good starter and they need to take game one.

- People think the Padres cannot hit, but they actually led the NL in runs on the road. Too bad they have home field advantage in this series…

- Where would the Cardinals be without Albert Pujols? Seriously. Jake Peavy is a good pitcher, but Phat Al just tattooed that pitch about a mile and a half…

- The Cards will need Jim Edmonds to sip from the fountain of youth if they are to make any noise in this series. He’s aged really quickly since their 2004 playoff series, but he’s pivotal for them to succeed.

- Chris Carpenter looked tired in his final start of the season, but he’s looking sharp. Six K’s and only 3 hits, but he’s already thrown 70 pitches, a quick 5th would be ideal.

- Why do they pitch to Pujols? At least it was on the ground and not flying over the fence. That was a big hit for Edmonds, he’s 2/3, with a run scored and an RBI…

- Ten pitches was exactly what I meant when I said that Carpenter needed a fast inning.

- Uhmmm… I’m sorry I was busy picking my nose, but did Mike Piazza just throw somebody out? Somebody pinch me, this cannot be right.

- Belliard just stole and I was ready to write something snarky about Piazza, but he actually made another great throw. Seriously, either the Padres are sneaking Jason Varitek in there in a Piazza wig, or I really am dreaming.

- No more Peavy, I feel bad because he hasn’t exactly pitched poorly, but five runs when the reigning Cy Young winner is opposing you wont cut the mustard. Besides he just gave up an RBI single to Yadier Molina, a guy who’s VORP for the season was an anemic, Good strike totals, but not good strikeouts. There’s something indicative of his performance in there, I’m just not quite smart enough to tell you what.

- Damn Dave Roberts is playing good ball. Even at 52, or however old he is nowadays, he’s frickin’ fast. Giles had better drive him in here if the Padres want to stay in this game. Like Edmonds, Giles has aged a lot in the past two years, he still gets on base, but that’s not always enough. They need him to drive runners in, specifically Dave Roberts right now… well, I guess that’s what I meant. Sort of.

- Good throw by Edmonds, oh, now I’m saying the same thing as Chris “loves the savvy nicknames” Berman.

- Involuntarily I’ve checked out of this game… but Russle Branyan’s triple just brought me back. Damn, what an effort by Edmonds. Of course he made a double a triple, but seriously you have to love a guy who was limping the last time we saw him, sprinting full out and diving through the air for a ball in a 5-1 game.

- The Cards bullpen is up, that cannot be a good sign. Bye, bye birdie…

- I love Bard and he gets plunked… well, more like love tapped, but still. The Padres have good options in their lineup for pitch hitting, but unfortunately they just brought up Belhorn. This is a strikeout. Watch, I promise.

- Told you.

- Frickin’ huge stop by Ron Belliard. I questioned the trade that brought him here, but that single play might have made it worthwhile. Standing on deck was the red hot Brian Roberts. Huge play.

- Wow, there’re a lot of shadows in San Diego… Ok, now I’m tired and writing non sense. I’m going to pay some bills and come back at you during the Yankees – Tigers game. Aurevoir, or something… Of course, Giles just doubled and if this game get interesting in a minute I might reconsider.

A Sporadic Day of Baseball Observations...

Observations from Game 1, A's (B. Zito) v. Twins (J. Santana):

- Barry Zito is a great pitcher. Since 2001, his first full season in the Majors, Zito has thrown 214, 229, 231, 213, 228, and 221 innings each year. Understand the importance of that for Billy Beane. He knows that every fifth day, his manager will be able to write Zito’s name down and get six to seven innings. This is of course why his agent Scott Boras is going to be asking for 15 million over 5 years, but as important as he is to a starting lineup, I’m not convinced he deserves ace money. As this game started, after watching Santana mow down the A’s in the first, Zito came to the mound and I thought, ‘if Santana has a 8 inning, 4 hit, 1 ER, 11 K day, there’s no way Zito can match that. It’s not that he’ll be bad, but he’s going to give up 3 runs, at least. Dependable, but lacking that shutdown quality, makes him seem like a great number two pitcher. Of course, A.J. Burnett was given 55 million over five to be a number two and Zito’s deal, given his health, should be better than A.J. Burnett’s. That puts him at 60, or even 65 million for 5. Yikes. I hear the Padres are going to be interested in him, that would require a little less money (which isn’t likely in the World of Boras), but what a perfect destination. Good defense, warm location, HUGE home park.

- Wow, Frank Thomas is a beast. He’s even starting to look pretty good in green, but I wonder if there’s some sort of provision Oakland can petition MLB for about getting someone to run around the bases for him on Home Runs. Like they do for the seventy year old in my beer league softball, because even on HRs, when Frank can take a leisurely stroll around the bases, it’s looking pretty tough for him to make the trot.

- Ok, so much for Santana only giving up one run. He’s striking every other batter out and the Atheltics have still put two runs on the board. They don’t get a lot of credit, but the A’s are good…

- I’m cheering for either one of these team’s to win the World Series. I really like the Twins, but I was annoyed when they ended up winning their division and thus drew the A’s. Baseball needs to do away with the ridiculous rule, whereby teams cannot open the playoffs against a team in their division. The rule is absurd and there is no practical reason for it, especially given the importance baseball puts on intra-division rivals.

- Joe Morgan and Jon Miller really, really, really, need to forget about Luis Castillo’s blown stolen base in the first inning. It’s the fourth inning and they are still yammering on about how he shouldn’t have run, because Zito was struggling to throw strikes. You guys are right, it was a bad decision, but you’ve made the point. Honestly, let it go.

- The Sportsnet guys are asking if fans think the right amount of teams make the postseason, or whether it should be expanded. I used to champion a second Wild Card team, with a single game play-in. It would give importance back to winning your division cleanly, because a team would have to use their Ace in a play-in game, thus hurting their chances in the division series. However, one game is inherently flukey and it seems silly that this year the Tigers could miss out on the playoffs, despite being 5 games better than the White Sox over 162 games, because they lose one single game. Yes, it would be in their home park, but it’s one game. So, right now, today, I’m not so sold on that idea. I’m definitely not in favor of expansion, beyond the potential play-in game. Too many teams in the playoffs devalues the 162 games they play between April and September. I like those games.

- Five pitches in the last inning for Santana. Despite the two runs, he’s pitching great. Zito can only find the strike zone every other at bat, but he’s winning right now, throwing a one hitter. I love baseball.

- This game is FLYING… Seriously, we’re barely over an hour since it started and we’re already half way through the sixth. I actually want to go get a bite to eat soon, do you think it’ll be over by the time my girlfriend is out of the shower? It’s even odds. I mean she’ll be in there awhile, but games tend to bog down from the seventh onward.

- I love how Thomas was almost thrown out running to first… Brilliant.

- Wow, Bartlett just killed his pitcher, you HAVE to double Thomas up there. Oh well, it happens, the scarier thing is that as I typed “wow” at the exact moment that Jon Miller said it… great, now I’m saying the exact same thing as Miller… it’s one of those moments in life when you’ve prepared someone to bash you over he head, you know like “the day I start talking like Jon Miller or Joe Morgan, bash me over the head…” Only, because I never considered the possibility of this occurring, I haven’t made the necessary precautions… Damn. I think I’ll have to settle for going for food… Maybe it’s the hunger that’s causing me to talk like Miller. I’ll be back…

Why Do the Tea Leaves Keep Showing Those Damn Yankees...

Who would you rather face in the first round of the playoffs? The best team in the league, which sends out a lineup rivaling the Ruth-Gehrig led Murderers Row or would you prefer to play a good Oakland team, one with a solid quartet of starters, but with an anemic offence? Obviously you’d want to play the good team, not the potentially great one. Assuming that you intend to advance to the World Series, you have to beat the Yankees and that awesome assortment of hitters at some point, but the longer you can avoid it the better. If the Twins were going into the playoffs with Santana and Liriano pitching then maybe a five game series against the Yanks would benefit them, but they aren’t. So avoiding the Yanks is a team’s best chance of survival. That was the reward yesterday when the Twins beat the White Sox and the Tigers lost to the Royals. Congratulations Detroit, you’re going to the playoffs for the first time since the eighties and your reward? Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Posada, and Cano. Have fun, enjoy the comedy and remember to tip your waitress.

Of course winning isn’t strictly impossible, especially because the Yankee’s pitching leaves a lot to be desired, but given that their 1 through 9 contains two automatic hall of famers, three possible electees, and nine all stars, beating them wont be easy. Besides being studs, the lineup is also diverse, a complete mix: four righties, four lefties and a switch hitter. They alternate through the lineup, making them devastatingly hard to match up against. They have the highest OBP in the league, with guys like Damon, Abreu, and Giambi who break down the starting pitcher by showing patience verging on reticence. This gets the opposing manager picking up the bullpen phone earlier than most teams, which allows them to eat the weaker pitchers on an opposing team’s staff. So to beat them you need a pitcher who throws strikes, spotting the ball in places where the hitters wont punish you. And, almost more importantly, you need a very good bullpen that can be prepared to heave a heavier load.

For the American League contenders, any path to the World Series, seemingly involves shutting down that Yankee lineup. Clearly a daunting and possibly insurmountable task. Yet of all the teams in baseball, the three teams in Majors who might match up the best are actually Minnesota, Detroit, and Oakland, because they are the American League’s top three bullpens. Each of them also boasts good starting staffs, who could be great. Unfortunately, this task falls first to the Detroit Tigers, whose young pitchers will be put to the test in Yankee stadium, where they will have to deal with both the Yanks lineup and the circus atmosphere that is October baseball in the Bronx. Somewhat surprisingly they have forgotten man Nate Robertson slated to start game one and rookie sensation Justin Verlander will try to do the job in game two. The key to the series is Verlander, I’d expect Robertson to lose game one, because Chien Ming Wang is stupidly good at home (11-3, 3.03 ERA), so Verlander needs to steal game two from the Yankees, then the Tigers will look for old man Kenny Rogers and 23 year Jeremy Bonderman to win out at home. The Tigers were actually slightly better on the road then at home, but they cannot anticipate getting that advantage in the playoffs. Not to disparage Robertson, but he isn’t an unflappable ace to take the mound in the Bronx and win game five, so the Tigers best chance is to take the middle games. Too bad that seems unlikely, the Tigers have been stumbling, they are inadequate offensively, and their starters seem to have worn down over the past month. The Yanks get solid starts from Wang and Mussina, and knock Rogers out early to sweep.

Minnesota is hurt, although not decimated, by the injuries to Francisco Liriano and retiring local hero Brad Radke, but they have the best starter in baseball --- the superfluous Johan Santana --- the underrated Boof Bonser (4-1, 2.63 ERA in September), and the precocious Matt Garza. After those three, Radke, who on Thursday made his first start in a month and the erratic Carlos Silva, will be forced to give some meaningful innings, which they likely aren’t capable of. On the bright side for the Twins, their bullpen is the best in baseball, with a 2.91 team ERA out of the pen and a stellar 8.13 K/9. If the Twins get to the Championship round and face the Yanks, don’t be surprised to see Santana go three times. Of course, to get there the Twins will have to get past the Oakland A’s and their quartet of excellent starters. Barry Zito is the big name (and the one gunning for the big payday), but Danny Haren, Esteban Loaiza, and Joe Blanton are also completely capable of shutting down an opposing team. Then there is Rich Harden, who made two sublime rehab starts, before being shellacked by the Angels on the seasons final day. At his best, Harden is one of the three best pitchers in baseball. If he can be throwing at even 80%, then the A’s will be tough to beat. Both the Twins and the A’s have been playing excellent baseball, and both have underrated offences. The A’s have yet to escape the first round in the Billy Beane era and as much as I think this is the year to break that streak (after all, I did pick them to win the World Series in March), I cannot guess against Santana in a five game series. The key is Bonser, if he can get that game two win, then Santana wins the fifth game at home. If the A’s can shake the youngster then the Twins will be tempted to bring Santana in on short rest for game four and they’ll lose.

As much as I want to get excited by the N.L. playoffs, I cannot shake the feeling that they are the AAAA playoffs and whoever wins will be hard pressed to take even a game in the World Series (something which hasn’t been done since Josh Beckett beat the Yankees in game 6 of the 2003 Series). The Mets might have been able to push the AL champion, but without Pedro Martinez, their pitching staff consists of the 87 year old Orlando Hernandez, the 89 year old Tom Glavine, the 88 year old Steve Trachsel, and the 8 year old John Maine. Seriously. Hernandez is renowned for his post season heroics, but he’s “believed” to be 36 and is four years past his last great postseason. Glavine seems content to ignore father time, but even as a younger man, his finesse ways never played as strong in the playoffs, and Trachsel, well he’s Steve Trachsel, I mean seriously. Maine has pitched well since being called up, but he has 24 career starts in the majors. Without Pedro’s mastery, the Mets rotation is thin. Everybody has assumed for months that they’ll stroll into the World Series, but I’m not convinced that they can survive their first round opponent. The Dodgers have been Jeckyl and Hyde all year. Game one starter Derek Lowe is an experienced playoff performer. The Glavine – Greg Maddux game two match up is a great one for geriatrics and fans of the game alike, but the real key to the series is LA starter Hong-Chih Kuo. The Taiwanese youngster has an unimpressive 1-5 record, but he’s pitched much better in September (3.06 ERA) and he’s left handed. This matters, because the Mets potent offence seems to lose a little oomph against lefties, and by little I mean an anemic .730 OPS. The Mets are undone by an old pitching staff and by their inability to hit lefties.

The Cards did everything they could not to get into the playoffs, but since Houston dropped the ball after an improbable 9 game winning streak, the Cards will have to delay their golfing plans for another week. Still, in what has to be the least interesting series, I don’t expect a long delay for the Cards. Besides Albert Pujols, the Cards lineup has seemingly gone from robust to wimpy, which plays right into the Padres hand. With four great starters, the Pads could sweep, but somehow I’d guess Pujols will single handedly steal a game. Not enough to extend their season, but something.

In the ALCS, the Yankees and Twins go six, before the 1-9 of the Yankees order finally wears down the Twins pitching. In the NLCS the Dodgers better hitting is lost in the depths of two pitchers parks and the Padres take a grueling, intense, seven game series. For the World Series we’re treated to a repeat of the 1998 Series and just like then, the Yankees sweep. And believe me when I say that I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Twins, Padres, or A’s win. They always say that great pitching wins in the playoffs, but somehow I just cannot see the pitching being better than the Murderers Row of the 21st century.

Six Months Later and I'm Still an Idiot...

Well, it’s over. Finished. Done. Six months later, hundreds of pitchers, thousands of at bats, some horrible blunders, and 100 odd victories by the Yankees, actually only 97, but who’s counting, well beside MLB, thousands of baseball websites, every newspaper, a million MLB fans in New York and me… This seems like as good a time as any (and certainly better than a month ago) to review my pre-season predictions and see how things really played out. This is really a big exercise in contrition, because there is no other way to look at this than to admit every stinking thing I wrote earlier in the year was fraught with the utmost stupidity. I’m an idiot and lets see how…

AL East – Ok, I actually have to score some points here, no not for predicting that the Yanks would win the division (that’s a bit like saying that my Dad will get out of bed bald), but for knowing that the Jays would break the Red Sox hegemony over second. Unfortunately second place, 87 wins and $1.50 will get you a Lobster Dinner, but only on Mondays and only at the Rugby Club (all of which is neither here nor there). Despite finishing second I cannot shake the sensation that their season was a disappointment.

AL Central – Like every other chubby dude with a typewriter, I missed the boat on the Tigers. In my notes I actually had them improving, but into the wonderful realm of .500, not .600. I was not alone on this, I don’t feel bad… I don’t, really. Ok, maybe a little. The Tribe killed me, but I did say that they wouldn’t be as good as last year, and the Twins hitters have matched “the dominance of their young hurlers.” At least to some degree. The White Sox, well… 20 of the 25 guys on the roster were as good or better, unfortunately those other 5 were their starters, and well, starters are kind of important aren’t they?

AL West – The A’s, the A’s, the A’s… I bet you thought I was crazy at the end of May, when the A’s where an anemic 24-29 and I am… crazy like a fox!

AL Wild Card – Or just plain crazy like a donkey (which is a polite way of calling myself an @$$). Ok, so maybe the Jays didn’t win the AL Wild Card, forget the AL, who cares about the AL, look at my NL Wild Card choice (“what’s that Honey, I picked who? Mil-what the H*** was I thinking… Sigh…”) . Actually, if you read what I wrote for each team, it’s pretty spot on and I did have the Twins second, that counts for something doesn’t it? Please, come on, throw me a bone here people I’m drowning… (“no Honey, I don’t know how exactly a bone is supposed to save me from drowning”).

AL ROY:
Prediction: Jonathan Papelbon – No shame here, the kid was awesome, frickin’ awesome.
Reality: Until August, this thing was a three horse race with Papelbon, Justin Verlander, and Francisco Liriano lapping the rest of the field. Then Paps and Liriano hurt themselves and Verlander won almost through default. Incredibly deserving, but a bit of a let down after the first four months.

AL MOY:
Prediction: John Gibbons – I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. It isn’t that I’m wrong, it’s that I’m soooo wrong. Let me see, Gibbons tried to fight one of his position players, and got him kicked off the team (admittedly Hillenbrand’s an ass, but still), then he actually succeeded in fighting one of his pitchers (and had his nose broken by Ted Lilly, who decidedly isn’t an ass)… was he responsible for all the injuries? No, but I still think he’s a swaggering Texan who micromanages a little too much.
Reality: It’s a two horse race. Ron Gardenhire and Jim Leyland. Both have done exceptional jobs and you cannot really go wrong either way. I’d vote for Gardenhire, because his team actually won the division, but given the surprise of what the Tigers’ season, I think Leyland wins. Voters like surprises, whatever.

AL Cy Young:
Prediction: Johan Santana – Yes, frickin’ eh! Score one for the good guy! (“Yes Honey, I AM the good guy… What do you mean says who?).
Reality: Triple Crown (and yes I know the pitching version is less flashy than the hitting one, but really both are equally irrelevant), acknowledged best pitcher in baseball, should have won last year. Yup lock it up and send it over to Johan, it’s his.

AL MVP:
Prediction: Paul Konerko – Well Konerko didn’t have a bad season, but he wouldn’t even be the MVP on his own team, actually he likely isn’t even second.
Reality: There is no obvious choice here, Travis Hafner --- believe it or not --- was the best hitter, David Oritz is still viewed as the most clutch (most clutch? Clutchest? Clutcherirest, hey we’re just making stuff up over here…), Jermaine Dye and Justin Morneau both have flashy stat lines in the Triple Crown categories, but this award is really all about two players: Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer. Both players play premier positions for teams headed to the postseason, both play on teams loaded with talent (while Jeter’s Yankees have all those hitters, it’s actually Mauer who has two teammates joining him in my MVP top ten), and both are atop the league in batting average. Jeter, who is at once the most overrated and one of the most underrated players in baseball leads the AL in win shares with 33, Mauer is second with 31. It’s in VORP that Jeter gets some real separation, leading Mauer by 12.5 points. It’s close, but the nod here goes to the Yankee captain.

NL East – I’d like to think I did the right thing by giving the Braves the benefit of the doubt, but somehow I don’t think you’ll see it that way. Still, I think that what I wrote summed things up fairly well, and that minor oversight of picking the 79-83 win Braves should be forgiven…

NL Central – Remember last year when the NL West was pathetic (and no, it isn’t much better now), well welcome to the central, two years ago it had three strong teams, but then St. Louis became a bit cheap, the Astros forgot that you need hitters as well as pitchers, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs reverted back into… the Cubs. I should be able to take some joy from getting something right here, but I don’t… the whole thing is too ugly.

NL West – The West was again pretty crappy and the Padres once again won the war of craptrition, that’s really all I have to say about that.

NL Wild Card – OK, in my defense I did write, “If Ben Sheets can make 30 starts for the Brewers, then they will surprise a lot of people who missed their success from last year.” He didn’t, they didn’t can we just forget the whole thing? No? Hhmph…

NL ROY:
Prediction: Ryan Zimmerman – With over 100 RBIs, Zimmerman has come through for me in a year packed with rookies. With a little luck he might even win the thing, but in the interests of full disclosure, I have to admit that he’s third on my ballot, behind Dan Uggla and…
Reality: Hanley Ramirez, Florida’s young shortstop, was the best of a plethora of choices. No kidding, a plethora. I had 14 guys under consideration, fourteen. That’s insane. I’d guess that Zimmerman will win, because voters LOVE RBIs, but Ramirez, with a VORP of 55.0 and 23 Win Shares, was the best and should win.

NL MOY:
Prediction: Ned Yost – Damn, will this Brewers thing not leave me alone…
Reality: Congratulations Joe Girardi, now that you’ve been named NL Manager of the Year, what are you going to do next? Hand out resumes? Try the Cubs, I hear they’re hiring…

NL Cy Young:
Prediction: Jake Peavy – Yes, the smart money is on Jake Peavy, well at least the smartass money, but that’s practically the same things, isn’t it?
Reality: Arizona’s Brandon Webb narrowly beats out Chris Carpenter, with Roy Oswalt a rapidly closing third. So I missed the man at the top, I nailed the second and third, come on, give me some “dap” you know you want to…

NL MVP:
Prediction: Albert Pujols – Here’s what I wrote: ‘Baring major injury, I’m just going to write down Albert Pujols’ name for this award every year for the next decade, and more often than not I’m going to be right --- he’s just that good.’
Reality: And guess what, he is… A stupidly good start has become lost in all of Ryan Howard’s home runs, but it is Pujols who leads the Majors in VORP (86.6) and Win Shares (39). Yes, the late season collapse looks ugly, but only the Mets were good in the N.L. this year (and then only sometimes), everybody else was just fighting to keep their heads above .500. Without Phat Al, the Cards are sinking to the bottom, like a mob hit in the Hudson.

Ok kids, that’s it for my yearly effort in contrition (see Honey, I can admit I’m wrong…). Be sure to check back tomorrow to see my playoff previews and the first in my series of best 2006 teams.

Saints, Raiders, and an Introverted Man Named TO

The first month of the NFL season is over. By now, you’ve seen important games on Sunday night, you’ve seen the Saints remarkable return to the Superdome, and you’ve seen Bill Parcels left eye maniacally twitch after thirty straight TO related questions. So, now that we can see how things are beginning to shake out, lets take a little glance back and maybe even a glance forward and divulge some thoughts on the young NFL season.

1) Wither those Doomsday Scenarios – After the first team offence failed to score any touchdowns in the preseason, the pundits lit the Skins up for scoring only 26 points in opening the season 0-2. Everyone was tossing Mark Brunell, Joe Gibbs, and Al Saunders under the bus, despite the reality that Saunders, the highly sought after offensive coordinator brought in from Kansas City, has a 700 page playbook which was renowned for its intricacies. Now, after the Skins scored 67 in two straight wins, everybody’s rushing back to the boat.

2) The Raiders are bad – Really, really bad. Losing at home to the Browns after building a 21-3 lead is downright funky. These aren’t Otto Graham’s Browns, they’re Charlie Frye’s and the Raiders let Frye decimate them. I like Art Shell, he seems like a nice guy, but Yikes…

3) The Usual Suspects Are Also Bad – Guess what? Arizona (1-3), San Francisco (1-3), Detroit (0-4), Houston (1-3), and Cleveland (1-3) are all also really bad… again. They’ve been joined by Miami (1-3), Tampa Bay (0-3), and Tennessee (0-4) among the NFL dregs. Now, Miami won like a hundred straight games last year to finish 9-7, so they may just be developing into the Oakland A’s of the NFL, but Tampa and Tennessee had better watch out. Tampa’s been hurt by Chris Simms ineffective play and then his scary exploding spleen, but their defense is suddenly looking a bit old and when you start to look a bit old in the NFL you start to look ancient really fast. And Tennessee started the Vince Young experiment in week 4, which is almost 14 weeks too early. They’re only two years removed from a 12-4 season and have acknowledged that they’re rebuilding, but it isn’t as easy to tear it down and rebuild it as teams think (just ask San Fran).

4) Da BEARS – Yes, it was at home and yes MVP Shaun Alexander wasn’t there, but the Bears look good, real good last night. They started the season with three straight wins over their division rivals and then smacked Seattle in the mouth. After they destroyed Green Bay and Detroit by a combined score of 60-7 everyone said, well, sure it’s nice, but it was Green Bay and Detroit, well beating the defending NFC champs 37-6 sends a message. The Bears have played 8 straight home games in which the opponent has failed to score more than 10 points. This is bad news for NFC opponents, because in the battle for home field through the playoffs, the Bears now have an enormous lead, only accentuated by the reality that they could go 6-0 in their division; something the East and South contenders wont be able to do, leaving only Seattle who already trails in the tie breaker department. Speaking of which…

5) The Seahawks Will Be Fine – I know after this loss, everybody’s tearing up their Seahawks postseason predictions, but remember that they play in a division with Arizona and San Francisco. Yes, St. Louis seems to have happily progressed into the Scott Linehan era, but Seattle still has a relatively pain free path to the playoffs. They need not panic and rush Alexander back too soon, lest the rushing king further damage his foot and be permanently lost. They can survive without him until November, bringing him back early is panicky and just plain stupid.

6) Peyton, not Eli, is the Manning Who Rules NY – With two games in NY this year, Peyton got the clean sweep. In the Manning Bowl, his brother put up the better stats, but it was Big Brother who looked calm, confident and in control. And yesterday, Peyton watched the 24-21 lead he’d just given the Colts, disappear as fast as it takes Justin Miller to run 103 yards. So what does he do? Puts his helmet back on (one strap at a time too, just like you and I!) and marches his team back down the field to retake the lead 31-28. There are still two quarterbacks in the NFL and then everyone else, Manning and Brady set the gold standard and they seem unwilling to descend back to the pack.

7) Which Brings Me To – I know better, you know better, but admit it you were doubting the Pats after they decided to trade Deion Branch rather than pay him first receiver money. I actually cannot entirely blame them, because he isn’t worth star money and they traded him for a first round pick, but when Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel are your starting receivers, I don’t care if your coach is Bill Belichick and your quarterback Tom Brady, you just aren’t going to win… Except, the Pats coach is Belichick and their quarterback is Brady and of course, going on the road against an undefeated Cincinnati and they… paste them. Absolutely paste them. I don’t think that the Pats are Super Bowl bound this year, but they are obviously going back to the playoffs and once there only an idiot would bet against them. This time, I really do know better, don’t I?

8) New Orleans is a Great Story – And surprisingly, they’re also a good team too. I’m not sure that they’ll make the playoffs, but they are going to be in contention all year long. Playing as heroes for an entire region, they have rode the emotion and shown that offseason acquisitions Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and coach Sean Payton are the right men to bring this team back after several figuratively and (last year) literally homeless seasons.

9) So, Enough Blah, Blah, Blah, Who Yeah Got? – Ok, it’s playoff prediction time, so lets break down who we have going to the dance after the first month: The Colts take home field advantage in the AFC and San Diego, despite its loss this weekend, joins them in the bye. New England and Baltimore host playoff games against Cincinnati and Denver, which shockingly leaves the Super Bowl champion Steelers sitting on the sideline. In the NFC, the Bears continue to stroll to the top spot. Seattle recovers from this weekend to join them in the bye week. The Eagles win the loaded East and the Panthers recover from their 0-2 start to win the South. Atlanta runs Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn right into the playoffs and the TO show in Dallas continues to nauseate me. The Saints just lose out, as does Gibbs’ Skins, and the Giants.

10) And What Happens Then? – New England remembers that they’re better than Denver and ends the losing streak to the Broncos; Baltimore’s D isn’t enough to stop Carson Palmer, although Ed Reed does knock Chad Johnson out midway through the game; San Diego’s Phillip Rivers is terrorized by Bill Belichick’s schemes in the Divisional Playoffs and Indy’s offence is better than Cincy’s in a surprising defensive battle. Finally we get the Colts – Pats game that everyone expected last year, with Peyton manning showing he’s tougher than people give him credit for and capable of winning the big game.

In the NFC, TO returns to Philly for a playoff game, with the hype growing to such ridiculous heights that it overshadows the US finally finding Bin Laden. All of the hullabaloo finally causes Bill Parcels to snap and he goes Postal on the team, seriously injuring his entire starting lineup. In the quiet serenity of Philly’s locker room, Andy Reid, informed of the Cowboys’ debacle, allows --- for the first time ever --- the faintest hint of a smile. He later denies that it was a smile, suggesting that a fly was circling the locker room and landed on his lip, causing him to flinch. Regardless of their coach’s wanton use of smiles, the Eagles romp the Cowboys B team, giving McNabb vindication. After the Eagles – Cowboys game, people are amazed to discover that there’s still more football to be played and barely tune in to see the Panthers –Falcons game, so nobody remembers that the Panthers win… but they do, and then they travel to Chicago, where the Bears roll over them. The Eagles, so overjoyed to have beaten TO, forget to travel to Seattle and default. Given an extra bye week, the Seahawks look sharp in their return to Midway and finally break the Bears 10 point home streak, but Rex Grossman throws for 382 yards in a career performance and the Bears win.

The Super Bowl is the classic case of offence verse defense. With Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith on the sidelines, the game is dubbed the “Classy Bowl” and guarantees the first time in NFL history that a Super Bowl champion is coached by a man of color (unless of course we count the fire engine red that Holmgren seemingly gets near the end of every game). Defense usually wins, but on this day the best QB wins. Manning and Dungy finally combine to win the Big One.