Let's Get Ready To Rumble...

Normally, I don’t bother to break down playoff series until the finals, but with the NBA’s two best teams (sorry Dallas, but you clearly were shown to be wanting) meeting in the second round, this just might be the NBA finals, only with the winner having to prove themselves for two more rounds. And, while I wish that the NBA reseeded after the first round, so that we could see Golden State run with Phoenix and San Antonio’s big men topple Houston’s Yao, you cannot deny the excitement of two pillars of NBA style meeting in the second round. Sure, the second round is too early for either team to be eliminated, but given the championship expectations of both clubs, lasting one extra round will hardly reduce the smarting of elimination.

Matchups:

Point Guard:
Phoenix - Steve Nash (PPG 18.6 | APG 11.6 | SPG 0.8 | PER 23.87)
San Antonio - Tony Parker (PPG 18.6 | APG 5.5 | SPG 1.1 | PER 21.46)
Diagnosis: Obviously Nash is the better and more important player, which isn’t about denigrating Parker, who is a better point guard than all but five men in the NBA, but Nash is a two time MVP, and while some might question that, they shouldn’t. He has raised, and adapted, his game for three straight years to ensure one thing: that his team wins. This year, when the re-integration of Amare Stoudemire seemed as though it might pull the team apart, it was Nash who drove them on a 30 of 32 win streak that galvanized the team currently before us. All season he’s played with a look that made me think he deserved a third MVP. Parker’s good, maybe bordering on great, but…
The Word: The “three” time MVP, Steve Nash, is in a different world.

Shooting Guard:
Phoenix - Raja Bell (PPG 14.7 | APG 2.5 | 3P% .413 | PER 12.01)
San Antonio - Michael Finely (PPG 9 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.3 | PER 13.76)
Diagnosis: This matchup points to the failings of analyzing teams in this fashion. In reality, Finely starts the game and then, depending on the matchups, either switches to small forward or gives way to Manu Ginobili. Bell plays a much larger part, defending the opposing team’s best wing, hitting the occasional three, and providing the Suns’ toughness. Both players are important and both contribute in their own way. If each were to play 48 minutes, then tonight, Bell would be the more important player, but you cannot discount the presence of Manu, which makes…
The Word: This is a wash.

Small Forward:
Phoenix - James Jones (PPG 6.4 | RPG 2.3 | APG 0.6 | PER 10.81)
San Antonio - Bruce Bowen (PPG 6.2 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.4 | PER 7.18)
Diagnosis: In the same way that the Spurs start Finely, but bring Manu in for the brunt of the minutes, James Jones starts for the Suns, but it’s Leandro Barbosa who dominates games. For most of the season the Suns started Boris Diaw here, but the flabby Frenchman failed to adapt to the presence of Amare Stoudemire, so Suns coach Mike D’Antoni went instead to Jones. This helps the starting unit and the second unit, as Diaw can create bigger mismatches against opposing teams’ second units. Bowen, obviously, is an integral part of the Spurs. While his defense slipped during the first half of the season, his 37 year old legs recovered to put together another all-defense caliber season. Like Bell, Bowen plays defense and hits threes, which, given the limited role of Jones, is…
The Word: Enough to give Bowen a slight edge.

Power Forward:
Phoenix - Shawn Marion (PPG 17.5 | RPG 9.8 | BPG 1.5 | PER 20.87)
San Antonio - Tim Duncan (PPG 20 | RPG 10.6 | BPG 2.4 | PER 26.2)
Diagnosis: ESPN’s John Hollinger would argue, correctly in my estimation, that Duncan is in fact a center. In reality, Elson starts the game, plays eight minutes, with another eight at the start of the second half, and after that Duncan shifts over to center when the Spurs go small, but then, Marion’s arguably a small forward, so really both are the most important defensive pieces of their team, create matchup problems, and score important points, only…
The Word: Duncan is, plain and simple, the better player.

Center:
Phoenix - Amare Stoudemire (PPG 20.4 | RPG 9.6 | BPG 1.3 | PER 23.15)
San Antonio - Francisco Elson (PG 5 | RPG 4.8 | BPG 0.8 | PER 11.26)
Diagnosis: Perhaps the single most important matchup of the series will be how San Antonio handles Stoudemire. Two years ago when these two teams met, Stoudemire dominated the Spurs big men, averaging 37 points in the Spurs five game victory. If Amare goes off, does Spurs coach Greg Popovich use Duncan on Amare, or does he try to bring a variety of help defenders? San Antonio is the best at making the other team play to their pace, but…
The Word: They seemingly have no answer for Stoudemire.

Sixth Man:
Phoenix - Leandro Barbosa (PPG 18.1 | APG 4 | SPG 1.2 | PER 18.49)
San Antonio - Manu Ginobili (PPG 16.5 | APG 3.5 | 3P% .396 | PER 24.18)
Diagnosis: Both teams understand the importance of having a dynamic game changing talent coming off the pine, and while it was Barbosa who took home the hardware as best sixth man during the regular season, it’s Ginobili who should have (he received precious few votes as voters punished him for starting half the year). In reality, Ginobili is a better player, but Barbosa so perfectly fulfils his role as spark plug off the bench that…
The Word: This is a wash.

Bench:
Phoenix – Boris Diaw, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Banks, Jalen Rose, Pat Burke
San Antonio – Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn, Fabricio Oberto, Beno Udrih
Diagnosis: The Spurs have a deep bench, and even in the playoffs, coach Greg Popovich’s rotation will remain ten deep. Robert Horry, Brent Barry, and Jacque Vaughn are savvy veterans each of whom has a ring (or six in Horry’s case), a clearly defined role, and the trust of Pop. The perception is that the Suns have a bad bench, which, they do. However, it’s a lot worse during the regular season than it is in the playoffs. At this time of year, even the deepest of teams shorten their rotation and only call the number of a few trusted vets. After Barbosa, D’Antoni has Diaw and enforcer Kurt Thomas on the pine. Diaw’s job is to create matchup problems for opposing teams and to create easy baskets for his teammates. Thomas’ job will be to make life annoying for Tim Duncan. After that the Suns bench is a little barren. Jalen Rose thought he’d be contributing by now, but he just cuddles up alongside Pat Burke, Marcus Banks, and Eric Piatkowski. So, while I don’t think Phoenix’s bench is as big a liability right now, if I had to bet on one bench having a tangible outcome on this series, it would be…
The Word: Big Shot Rob and the Spurs bench hitting the key shot.

Coach:
Phoenix - Mike D’Antoni (212-145 .594 regular season. 19-16 .543 playoffs)
San Antonio - Greg Popovich (576-276 .676. | 76-47 .618 3 NBA Championships)
Diagnosis: These are two of the five best coaches in the NBA right now and a solid case could be made for each being the best. Each is the complete embodiment of his team, the physical personification of what he wants his players to accomplish on the floor. Each has a deep, almost symbiotic connection with his star, which allows the teams to govern themselves. Popovich has the hardware, but I don’t think that should be held against D’Antoni. Basically…
The Word: This is a Wash.

X-Factor:
Phoenix - Home Court
San Antonio - Pace
Diagnosis: This series will be won based upon two factors, which team does a better job of controlling the pace, and which steals the most games on the others home floor. Both are dominant home squads (Phoenix 33-8, San Antonio 31-10), but don’t expect this series to go all Utah-Houston on us. San Antonio will take one of the first two games in Phoenix by controlling the pace and forcing the Suns to slow their attack. It will be up to the Suns to run on the Spurs in the Alamo Dome to steal back home court, because the deeper the series goes, the more home court matters. If this series only goes six, then it’s probably because the Spurs have controlled the tempo and win out at home, but if it goes seven…
The Word: Then home court matters most.

Picking a Horse:
Diagnosis: This series is the definition of a clash of styles, and will be seen as something of a referendum on whether small ball, offensive driven basketball can actually win a championship. Both squads are the embodiment of their style of basketball. While the Suns offer a plethora of offensive weapons, whose goal it is to score fast baskets every time down the floor, the Spurs bring suffocating defense, centered around the presence of a hall of fame big man. To most observers, the Suns’ style is the more engaging, but up to now, the Spurs is the more distinguished. There was a perception during the season that of the big three, the Suns could beat the Mavs, the Mavs could beat the Spurs, and the Spurs could beat the Suns. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Mavs aren’t around any longer to knock off the Spurs, so if they want to move on, they’ll have to do it themselves. Can they? Honestly, my head says no, it says that the Spurs are just too talented, too deep, and too well coached, but… my heart, well, my heart says that Steve Nash has had a look all season long, a championship look and that he’s the hungriest man on the court. In essence, that’s what this series is all about, San Antonio is the cerebral choice, while Phoenix is the heart, and…
The Word: I always follow my heart, Suns in seven.