The "Real" NBA Season Begins

With the NBA season finally, mercifully, finished, it’s time to swing our… “What’s that Sweetie? It’s not over? There’s still another game tonight?” Oh, well, whatever… With the NBA finals mired in something close to irrelevance, it seems appropriate to take a quick look at what could be the most exciting, action packed offseason since, well, ever. Just look at the names that might be available: Jermaine O’Neal, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Lamar Odom, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko, and oh yeah, this guy out of LA you might have heard of… Kobe Bryant. And that doesn’t even get us started on the inevitable Kevin Garnett rumors. On top of the bevy of all star talent available, there’s also that small thing about what may be the greatest draft ever, and a free agent class that lacks the headline star power of the trade market, but still includes Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis, and potentially, Vince Carter.

So, after a shockingly slow trade deadline, and an obnoxiously boring playoffs (record low ratings for the finals is a bad sign, no matter what David Stern might say to Bill Simmons), it might just be time to get excited about basketball again. With a few good moves teams like Portland, Milwaukee, and even Atlanta can jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and others, namely Chicago, Houston, and Utah could put themselves into championship contention. With that in mind, lets look at how the offseason shapes up by answering five questions about each conference.

The five biggest issues facing the Eastern conference this offseason.

1) Has LeBron now taken over the Eastern Conference for the next decade?

Well, in a word… No. No doubt LeBron took a giant step forward in the Detroit series and he could dominate the Eastern conference for the next decade, but as was shown in the San Antonio series, LeBron’s cast aren’t Pippen, Rodman, or Steve Kerr, and LeBron isn’t Jordan. The conference is still open. Dwayne Wade’s supporting cast has one foot in the grave, but when healthy he probably plays LeBron to a draw, and while Detroit is on the way down, with a good offseason Chicago could take another step forward and block LeBron’s path back to the finals.

2) Will the East recover from May 22?

After almost a decade of suffering from a seriously lopsided league, two talents came along, who --- along with James and Wade --- could have immediately reduced the talent gap. If Oden had landed in Boston and Durant in Milwaukee, both of those teams would have been title contenders in two years. Instead, the top two picks landed in the West, the northwest to be specific, and the East got another kick to the nards. What does this mean for the East? That they’d better hope that Garnett and Kobe are traded their way (which if they are traded, it’ll probably be East), that Chicago should be aggressively pursuing Zach Randolph (assuming Garnett isn’t available), and that David Stern should force Billy Knight, Isaiah Thomas, Billy King, and Danny Ainge to be relocated to Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas, and Portland respectively. That more than the presence of Durant and Oden should have the desired effect of making the East better, while drastically reducing the quality of play in the West (I actually really look forward to the prospect of Isaiah trading Tim Duncan to the Knicks for Stephon Marbury and a few draft picks).

3) What will Atlanta do with the third pick?

With Portland and Seattle’s choices locked in stone (and no, Durant’s workout didn’t affect anything other than the vocal chords of a few loud mouthed idiots), Atlanta really holds the keys to this draft. What they desperately need is a competent presence in the middle, and somebody to run the show. They could take Mike Conley higher than most peg him, they could draft another athletic swingman, or they could trade down to one of the teams that want Al Horford, gain an asset, and then take Conley. But, given the logic, Knight will draft Brandon Wright, who’ll be another enigmatic talent, hanging out on the wing, with Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress.

4) Is there any doubt the Celtics are now cursed?

Whether it’s because of Len Bias, or whether Red reneged on some Faustian deal that has led to their demise, can there be any doubt that the Celtics are cursed? Or is it just terrible management? Whatever the case, after seeing their Oden-Durant dreams descend into the murky waters of Yi-land, and watching Tim Duncan ascend to one of the all-time greats, the Celtic faithful must be starting to wonder about possible curses (after all, these are the same fans who spent 86 years fearing the curse of the Bambino). More than anything, Boston needs direction, but confoundingly, they seem content to be committed to their youth, while also believing they can compete right now. Danny, trade Pierce for more assets, or trade some of the kids. You might be cursed, but that’s no reason to be dumb.

5) A ridiculously early playoff prediction for the East?

So, who has the best offseason? As I said above, even the Hawks could make the playoffs if they made some smart moves this offseason, but… what are the odds of that happening? With Billy Knight in charge? Not bloody likely, but the point remains that the East is so terrible, that someone who was terrible last year, could jump into the playoffs by making a smart move or two. That’s all it would take, but that seems unlikely to come from Atlanta, Boston, the Knicks, Charlotte, or Indiana. Philly seems on the cusp, and Milwaukee certainly has enough talent where some health and better coaching could land them in the playoffs. The givens are Detroit (on the way down, but with a lot of room left), Chicago, Cleveland, and Toronto. I think that if Gilbert Arenas remains healthy Washington remains in, same for Wade and Miami. Which leaves Orlando and New Jersey, ahhh… Dwight Howard takes another step and pushes out the grey beards in the swamp.

Five Questions for the Western Conference.

1) Will Kobe be traded?

This is the single biggest issue of the offseason. Does Kobe get moved anywhere? Two weeks ago I would have thought that the Lakers make some moves, and Kobe backs off his demands, but… Based upon his recent conversation with Jerry Buss, it would appear that Kobe’s sticking to his guns and wants to be traded, if that’s the case then the offseason is guaranteed to be massive. Where would Kobe go? Well, first of all, the Lakers aren’t sending him to any Western conference teams, so the Suns, Mavs, and Clippers (especially the Clippers) can forget about him. Second, with his no trade clause, he’s not going to a small market, so Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Toronto can just assume he’s not on the market, and the Lakers aren’t getting LeBron or Dwayne Wade straight up, so he’s not landing in Cleveland or Miami. Realistically, that leaves Chicago (supposedly Kobe’s first choice), Philly, Boston, and the Knicks. Of those, only Chicago really has the assets to make an attractive offer, but as we’ve seen in recent years, as the trade demand drags on, teams settle for packages that at first would have been laughed off (if in doubt, then see: O’Neal, Shaquille; McGrady, Tracy; Iverson, Allan, and worst of all Carter, Vince). Additionally, one cannot forget that Lakers’ GM Mitch Kupchak will be the one masterminding any trade, and, well, he doesn’t exactly have the best record on this subject (again, see: O’Neal, Shaquille).

2) What about Garnett?

The T-wolves have staunchly refused to address trading Garnett in the past, which clearly was the wrong decision. Now, as they flounder in mediocrity, their division just became exceedingly tougher with the addition of Oden and Durant, their roster continues to be bogged down by mid level contracts for minimum players, and their management has shown nothing in a decade to give Minnesota fans hope. So no, Minnesota isn’t trading Garnett. At least not this offseason, but… If owner Glenn Taylor decides to shove Kevin McHale in a closet for two weeks, and take over the negotiations, he might realize that a deal with the Celtics that sends Garnett East for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastion Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and the fifth pick. That’s a lot of future cap space, a dominating low post presence, a streaky, but very young wing player, and the fifth pick to add to the seventh in a loaded draft. If they came away from the draft with Florida stars Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah, then they’d have a young core that set up like this: Randy Foye, Green, Brewer, Jefferson, and Noah. (Just for the record, I agree with Bill Simmons’ take, that this trade is the wrong move for the Celtics).

3) Can the Spurs secure their dynastical place in history by winning back to back championships?

In my opinion, if the Spurs win their fifth title in ten years, not to mention their second straight, next year then all of this hoopla about whether they’re a dynasty can be put to bed, with the answer a resounding yes. So can they? Of course they can. After their first title, Tim Duncan was injured during the following playoffs, and they ran into the Shaq-Kobe-Phil juggernaut, so it wasn’t happening that year, but after their 2003 title, they were outplaying the Lakers until Derek Fischer’s miracle game four winner, and in 2005 they were a dumb ass Ginobili foul away from defeating the Mavericks in game seven. Either of those plays go the other way and the Spurs probably win titles in those years (and yes, I’m betting that the Spurs don’t melt down in last year’s finals like the Mavs did against Wade and the Heat). So, it’s not as though there’s some fundamental flaw in them that makes it so they can’t repeat, but as each of the Spurs first three titles showed us, winning back to back championships isn’t just a walk in the park, so if I had to choose between the Spurs and the field, I’d take the field.

4) What about the Suns?

After recently handing over their GM responsibilities to Steve Kerr, the Suns enter a pivotal offseason. Owner Robert Sarver doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax, but with Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, and Steve Nash all making south of 10 million, there’s not a lot of room for the extensions to Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa. So, does someone convince Sarver that this team was one Big “Cheap Shot” Bob knock away from winning a title this year, and thus should be given one more run, or do they move Marion to save some money?

5) Who makes the playoffs out West?

Well, if this was tough in the East, it’s nearly impossible to predict the West, but for opposite reasons. Lets just go with the obvious off the top: San Antonio, Phoenix, and Dallas aren’t going to miss out (a massive injury aside), I think that Houston, Utah, and Denver each come in on the next tier. The final two spots are going to be fought out between the Lakers, Clippers, Golden State, New Orleans, and Portland. I think that even with a rookie Oden in Portland, the Blazers make the dance, and the Clippers have the least issues to address this offseason so I’ll nominally put them eighth right now (although, no doubt Elgin Baylor could blow that).