Getting the Jays their very own Papelboner...

When the Blue Jays failed to make any moves at the trade deadline, observers of the club believed that things were over, that the Jays were done. In reality, there were no sound deals that the Jays could make. There were no cost effective options out there who could be counted on to help. The Jays couldn’t afford to add to their payroll nor could they afford to sacrifice from their thin minor league system, because the farm system of a moderate payroll team is the single most important factor in long term success. Drafting and properly evaluating players allows a team to replenish their roster with inexpensive options, giving them valuable trading chips and allowing them to restock mid season when injuries hurt the big league roster. Who has been more valuable this season, B.J. Ryan (26s, 1.46 ERA) or Jonathon Papelbon (30, 0.64). Papelbon has been better, but both have been dynamite. So, who’s more valuable? How about the guy earning 340,000 v. the guy earning 4,500,000. Obviously the Red Sox closer is more valuable, because his miniscule salary allows them to allocate a greater portion of funds to other players (say, Manny Ramirez). The Jays have youngsters contributing, but not enough of them and none on the pitching staff. When injuries and ineffectiveness deprived the Jays of three fifths of their starting rotation, they went to the minors, where 6 guys have given them a combined 7 and 18 record in 34 starts. Combined with Josh Towers’ 1-9 record and seven guys have contributed a 8-27 record for the Jays. That’s pretty tough to overcome. For everything that J.P. Ricciardi has done well as GM of the Jays, stock piling the farm team is not one of them. The team has drafted with a strong emphasis on pitching, but has very few top notch pitching prospects. They also spent two first round picks on shortstops, but have a second baseman and an errant thrower to show for the picks. So, here is a look back at the drafts over which J.P. has presided, with the blessed power of 20/20. Given that nobody has fortune of drafting with 20/20 hindsight, this is less a critique of Ricciardi and more an exercise in what if…

2005 – It’s a little early to evaluate anything from the 2005 draft, nobody from the lower ranks have emerged as top prospects and only one player from the first round has made an impact in the Majors (Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, 3rd pick). The Jays selected Ricky Romero with the 6th pick, three spots later the Mets took Mike Pelfrey. Cameron Maybin (top rated prospect by Baseball America) went 10th, Matt Garza (just called up by the Twins) went 25th, and with the 26th choice the Red Sox took Craig Hansen. It’s too early to say who will be the best. Hansen is being touted as the Red Sox’s closer of the future (if they in fact make the bold move of switching Papelbon to the rotation), Garza’s AAA ERA is 2.05, and Pelfrey was being included in rumors for Barry Zito. Romero’s AA ERA is 7.76, he’s young and he might be great, but… With the seventh selection, the Rockies took shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Given the lack of depth at that spot, I take Tulowitzki, who’s defensively superb and patient at the plate.

2004 – Like 2005, it’s too early to see those late round picks work their way through the minors, but the first round has pretty clearly broken down into how good the guys are. The Jays had two picks, the first of which they used on David Purcey (16th) and the second on Zach Jackson (32nd). The draft was notable, because the top two prospects were represented by Scott Boras and fell. Jered Weaver went 12th and Stephen Drew (15th) almost fell to the Jays, but whether Ricciardi would have dealt with Boras remains a great unknown (and for the record, as great as Weaver has been thus far, I’d take Drew). However, given that those two weren’t on the board, the next best player for the Jays’ first pick was Philip Hughes (23rd), who is the Yankees top pitching prospect. Jackson was sent to Milwaukee this offseason, along with Dave Bush and Gabe Gross for Lyle Overbay. Overbay’s a great, underrated player so I’d like to keep the chips necessary to make that deal, but with Huston Street (40th) still on the board, there’s no conscionable way 20/20 takes Jackson. The later stages of this draft are still developing, however the fourth round did produce Casey Jansen (117th) who despite his troubles would still look good in AAA.

2003 – A good draft, with a dominant fourth round pitcher and a 15th round steal, too bad the Jays mostly missed out. Lets start with the first round, where the Jays used the thirteenth pick on Aaron Hill. Chad Billingsley (24th) and Brandon Wood (23rd) are both very highly touted, but neither have yet made an impact in the bigs. Other prospects chosen after Hill include Brian Anderson (15th), Conor Jackson (19th), Eric Duncan (27th), Daric Barton (28th), Carlos Quentin (29th), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36th), and Adam Jones (37th). There’s a lot of talent there, but given the Jays’ needs the only player I’d take over Hill would be Wood. An exceptional shortstop talent, Wood has shown plate discipline and power. I may regret this in a year, but right now, I’ll give the edge to Hill. In three years that might be different, but in July Hill hit .361 and since I am worried about the Jays competing this year, I take his contribution now over Wood’s higher ceiling. In the second, instead of Josh Banks (50th), how about the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier (62nd) who has a .940 OPS in 77 games with the big club this year. In the third I’d still take Marcum, who’s destined to pitch from the pen, but has thrown well in three emergency starts this year. It’s in the fourth that I want to throw up a little in my mouth. Sure, projecting who these guys will become is incredibly hard, perhaps even harder than any other job in sports, but with the 110th pick the Jays took Kurt Isenberg and with the 114th pick the Boston Red Sox took Jonathon “Freaking” Papelbon. Honestly, even if the Jays had screwed him up, getting him would have been worthwhile, if only because I never would’ve read about Bill Simmons’ “Papelboner.” In the sixth J.P. could have tabbed either Matt Kemp (181st) or Brian Bannister (199th) instead of Christian Snaverly. Since Christian is an outfielder I’ll go with the Jays’ supposed need and take Kemp. Finally, way down the draft in the 15th round the Jays selected Vito Chiaravalloti (440th) and while every franchise needs a Vito, fifteen spots later the Cardinals selected Anthony Reyes. I understand that this is an inexact science, but how are 454 people chosen before Reyes? Two years later he’s the number 1 prospect in the Cardinals organization. It isn’t as though he spent five years growing and developing, it’s been TWO years. Then, in the 17th round Ian Kinsler went 496th, WOW, that’s value.

2002 – Ok, 2002 was J.P.’s first draft, and of course it was the draft where the Jays took Russ Adams 14th, one spot before the Mets took Scott Kazmir, which started this whole exercise in futility. There were other good players taken after those two: Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain. Any of those guys would be better than Adams, but none of them will be better than Kazmir. In the second the Jays took Dave Bush, who pitched well last year before being sent to Milwaukee in the Overbay deal. Left on the board were Jon Lester (57th) and Brian McCann (64th), McCann is having a dynamite season for the Braves and Lester won his first six games after being called up. As I said above, I like Overbay and want to keep him, but I think with the talent we’ve compiled on this team we can make that deal with someone else. Since I took a pitcher in the first round, we’ll take a position player here and add a talented young catcher in McCann. In the third, Josh Johnson (113th) over Justin Maureau with the 86th pick. Instead of Adam Peterson with the 116th pick, what about Hayden Penn (136th). With the 146th, why not take Scott Olsen (173rd) instead of Chad Pleiness. In the eighth round, instead of Chris Leonard (236th), why not Brad Halsey (246th). Russell Savickas (266th) has a 7.36 ERA in AAA, Howie Kendrick (294th) had a 1.039 OPS in AAA before being promoted to the Bigs (where he’s hitting .338 after 22 games). Then, in the 10th with the 296th pick, the Jays selected Eric Arnold. Arnold’s 26 and struggling in AA, 24 spots later the Tigers took a 17 year old, who this year is blowing 100 mph fastballs past big league hitters, Joel Zumaya. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… WOW! Finally, in the 17th the Jays took Randy Braun 506th, while both Brandon McCarthy and Russell Martin were on the board. Martin’s tempting, but I’ll take McCarthy because he was pitching in the big leagues last season and thus has excellent trade value.

Just for curiosities sake, I browsed the 2001 draft, which cannot be included because it was conducted by Gord Ash, not Ricciardi. However, it should be noted that the Jays could have secured their corner infielders of the next decade, David Wright (38th) and Ryan Howard (140th). Ash didn’t take those two, so J.P. would have needed to make the same moves he made this offseason to acquire Troy Glaus (Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista). To acquire Overbay, the Jays sent Gabe Gross, Bush, and Jackson. If they don’t draft Bush and Jackson, then they need a replacement. It’s tough to lose a talented young left hander, but with Kazmir and Olsen ready, Gustavo Chacin becomes expendable. And given the value of young lefthanders and his higher ceiling, Chacin likely would have obtained Overbay without the need of a second arm.

The Jays roster to start the season:

C – B. McCann, G. Zaun
1B – L. Overbay, S. Hillenbrand
2B – I. Kinsler
SS – A. Hill, J. McDonald
3B – T. Glaus
RF – A. Rios, E. Hinske
CF – V. Wells
LF – F. Cattalanotto, R. Johnson

SP – R. Halladay (rh)
SP – S. Kazmir (lh)
SP – T. Lilly (lh)
SP – B. McCarthy (rh)
SP – J. Johnson (rh)

RP – H. Street (rh)
RP – J. Papelbon (rh)
RP – J. Zumaya (rh)
RP – B. Halsey (lh)
RP – S. Schoeneweis (lh)
RP – J. Speier (rh)
RP – S. Downs (lh)

This year, the Jays’ pitching was derailed when Burnett and Chacin injured themselves, if similar injuries struck this team, Reyes and Olsen are major league ready. When Hillenbrand jumped off the ‘ship,’ no big deal, because it’s past time to have Kendrick in the lineup. Miguel Tejada becomes available at the deadline, the Jays could have offered, Tulowitzki, Kemp, and Hughes, or maybe they offer Penn to Tampa for two months of Julio Lugo before promoting Tulowitzki in 2007. If Wells leaves after 2007 as a free agent, Rios shifts to center and Ethier plays right and hits third. Or… well, you get the point. It’s a drool inducing, over the top possibility. Nobody is fortunate enough to have Papelbon, Zumaya, and Johnson stepping up at the same time, but the point remains that having young, inexpensive talent sprinkled throughout the organization is the only way to counter George Steinbrenner’s millions.

Blue Jays: A Four Month Evaluation of Right and Wrong.

Do you believe in jinxing your team? I’m not entirely sure that I do, but I started this article on what has gone right and what has gone wrong for the Jays while watching them battle the A’s in Oakland. After a dramatic comeback to take the lead in the top of the 9th, who was walking in for the Jays, but BJ Ryan. Wouldn’t you know that I had just written Ryan’s name under the “Right” column? Did I jinx my team? Is it my fault they lost? Well, of course not (at least I’m pretty sure I can’t be blamed, can I?), but the loss means that the Jays finish the fourth month of the season with a very good 57-48 record, which means something has gone right. However, they’re also 6.5 back of the Red Sox, which means a lot of things have gone wrong. With two months left for the Jays to make a run at the division lead (and with the Yankees recent acquisition of Bobby Abreu, that just became a little bit harder), the time is right to look back at the previous two months and decide what has gone right and what has gone wrong for the Blue Jays this year.

Right: BJ Ryan – Until (I jinxed him) tonight, the high priced closer has been better than advertised. Three blown saves, none of which resulted in a loss. Now, the reality is that as good as Ryan is, there were going to be some bad outings. No reliever, not even Mariano Rivera, goes through an entire year without giving up some runs. You just hope that they come paired in outings when your team has a three run lead. He’s come in and pitched multiple innings when need prescribed, he’s struck out more than a batter per inning, he’s only allowed 9 runs all year (which breaks down to 6 in his first 45 appearances. Yes, July has been shaky, but he’s solidified the back end of the Jays’ rotation by being dominant.

Wrong: AJ Burnett – The high priced starter has been anything but dominant. Prior to signing his contract, Burnett was known as a phenomenal talent who’d never reached stardom because a) he’s frequently injured and b) he’s inconsistent. So, what has their supposed number two pitcher done for them this season. Missed 12 starts through two different injuries and when he has pitched, has given them three stellar outings (two of which, it should be noted, came against NL clubs), three good starts, and three terrible outings. Perhaps worthy of a number 4 starter, but far short of the dominance the Jays expected for 55 million.

Right: Outfield Defense – Frank Cattalanotto is the only regular outfielder whose defense can be described as average. Vernon Wells is a gold glove fielder, Reed Johnson covers more acreage out there than an crop duster and his arm makes runners think before trying to score from second. Before a freak injury, Alex Rios was being talked about as a potential gold glover, and after his injury Eric Hinske made some incredible catches in relief.

Wrong: Infield Defense – The flipping of Aaron Hill didn’t help, nor did the injury to John McDonald, but the Jays infield defense has been vastly sub par. Overbay is a stellar first baseman and Troy Glaus is surprisingly mobile at third (although his range isn’t confusing anyone with Eric Chavez), but up the middle the team has squandered far too many runs. Worst of all was when John Gibbons resorted to using Glaus at short, so he could keep Hillenbrand’s bat in the lineup. No, they didn’t make many errors, but they also didn’t get their hands on any balls. Of course much of the blame for the Jays’ fielding troubles can laid at the feet of Russ Adams, but we’ll come to that in a minute.

Right: Roy Halladay – The Doc has been great. Forget the 13-2 record, which has been helped by the generous run support he’s provided. Halladay has 13 quality starts and his worst outing (5 earned runs and the loss against Tampa Bay) came April 9th. It’s to the point where an outing in which he allows three runs and only goes 7 begins to feel poor. Until today’s loss (obviously my fault, not Halladay’s, nor --- I guess --- Ryan’s). Halladay was perfect this season breaking a Jays losing streak.

Wrong: Josh Towers and company – When J.P. looks back after the season and tries to assess why the Jays were 6.5 out on August 1st, perhaps he’ll place the blame on the infield defense, or the bullpen, or perhaps he’ll place the blame on the fifth spot in the rotation. That Josh Towers, with his 1-9 record and 9.11 (call emergency) ERA still has the fourth most innings pitched for the Jays this year is scary, downright scary. That he was replaced by Ty Taubenheim (1-5, 4.89) isn’t really making me feel much better. Even a league average pitcher would have been worth more than two wins from 21 starts, probably six more.

Right: The development of Aaron Hill – After a molasses like start (.195 in April), Hill has been slapping the ball around like he’s Tony Gwynn (.333 since, .361 in July). You’d still like to see more power from the intrepid young hitter, but the .415 OBP he posted in July made him a very valuable player. Defensively he’s far better suited to second base, where his range improves with every game and his strong arm allows him to turn the double play well. Not Orlando Hudson, but he’s improving, unlike…

Wrong: The development of Russ Adams – Oh Russ, what happened? Did they rush you to the Majors to soon? Were you just never really more than a utility player anyhow? Would the Jays have been better off taking the player drafted right after you (Scott Kazmir… d’oh!), yeah, they would have. Still, did we expect to see you start hitting like Niefi Perez (.276 OBP), while fielding like the Yankee- era Chuck Knoblauch (10 errors in 36 games at short)? No, we didn’t, but at the end of the season, you and Josh can fight over the largest chunk of blame for the Jays inspirational climb to… another third place finish.

Right: Eric Hinske – I’m not going to lie, Hinske has been in my dog house since his rookie season unnaturally heightened my expectations of his value. Yet this season, through the injuries to Alex Rios and Troy Glaus, I’ve come to value Hinske’s role on the Jays. Playing wherever the Jays have need of him, Hinske has not complained at being the positional odd man out. He’s come to the park every day, compiled his best offensive season, played terrific defense when needed, and not complained about sitting most nights.

Wrong: Shea Hillenbrand – I think I’ve written enough about him, but clearly he was something wrong this year.

Right: The bullpen – At times they have been stellar; coming in, striking people out to hold inherited runners, looking strong.

Wrong: The bullpen – At times they have been awful; coming in, taking more hits than the piñata in Glaus’ preseason commercial, looking weary.

Right: The Jays’ On Base Percentage and Home Runs – The Jays are second in baseball with a .360 OBP (.03 points behind Boston) and they are second in the American League with 144 HRs (18 behind the White Sox), so it should come as no surprise that they lead the Majors with a .842 OPS and that their offence has scored 565 runs. Of course as good as 565 runs are, they rank only 5th in the AL (6th overall).

Wrong: The Jays’ hitting with runners in scoring position – It isn’t so much their overall average with runners in scoring position, which is an acceptable .282 (5th in AL), but their league leading 105 double plays and their league worst 10 sacrifices. While the Jays hit capably with runners in scoring position, they don’t move runners over and thus ground into a lot of rally ending double plays.

Given the financial disparities of teams in the AL East, the Jays will not have a lot of seasons where they reasonably challenge for the title. Increased spending last offseason raised expectations, but the reality is that no matter how many things they’ve done right this year, there are just too many wrongs on their list. If they can correct a couple of these wrongs (the defense, moving runners over, and getting consistent outings from Burnett are reasonable goals), then they could make a push for 90 wins. It’ll still leave them short of October baseball, but should be enough for them to focus on what went right in 2006.

Baseball Trade Deadline Winners and Losers.

Mets GM Omar Minaya has done an excellent job positioning his team to reach the World Series. They have a phenomenal lineup, with a subtle blend of speed (J. Reyes), power (C. Delgado) and the two together (C. Beltran). In the offseason the Mets’ GM fortified their relief corps, which had been a source of frequent floods in the past, and he added veteran bats Delgado and Paul lo Duca. As a result of those moves, the emergence of youngsters Reyes and David Wright, and the appearance of the Carlos Beltran New York thought they were acquiring last year, the Mets lead their division by a stout 13.5 games. However their one glaring weakness is starting pitching. It wont hinder them making the playoffs and it probably wont hinder them winning the NL, but when they meet Boston, Detroit, the White Sox, or their cross town rivals in the World Series it will be a major hindrance. This isn’t as though the Mets’ starters aren’t good, but Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, and Orlando Hernandez are shading closer to 40 than you’d like. Worse, with the exception of Pedro, they are all soft tossers who try to beat you with location. The Mets were 6-9 in interleague play and that’s in the regular season, where the strike zone is usually a little more generous than the World Series. What the Mets need is a hard throwing young arm. Right now, this year and if he’s signed to a longer contract (i.e. not Barry Zito) then all the better. I don’t know if it was really on the table, but if the Astros were offering the Mets Roy Oswalt for some combination of Lastings Milledge and Brian Bannister and the Mets didn’t instantly jump, then they lost out on a fabulous opportunity to enhance their championship hopes. On the other hand, they did do well in fleecing Pittsburgh for relief pitcher Roberto Hernandez and reclamation leftie Oliver Perez for fourth outfielder Xavier Nady. So, it’s hard to know where to place the Mets. Are they better today than yesterday? Yes, but could they have gotten better for October? Maybe, who knows. Here’s some of what we do know from an eventfully, uneventful trade deadline.

Winners:

New York Yankees
Chalking the Yankees up as deadline winners is kind of like paying taxes; they’re both inevitable and they both make normal people want to pull their hair out (honest, it’s how my Dad lost his hair… the Yankees that is, not taxes). First they took Bobby Abreu and his .427 OBP from the Phillies, then they also got a reasonable fifth starter, Cory Lidle, to replace their fifth starter. Which is good, because they latter fleeced the Pirates in getting Craig Wilson for Shawn Chacon, that former fifth starter. What’s with New York practically stealing from Pennsylvania? Isn’t this what the U.S. has senators for? Shouldn’t the senator from Massachusetts be filling some sort of grievance to the senator of Pennsylvania for letting New York pillage Pennsylvania resources?

Los Angelos Dodgers
They are in last place in their division, but the Dodgers are only five out and they’re better today than they were yesterday. Julio Lugo significantly improves them at second (and possibly at short should they decide to move Rafael Furcal) and while giving up Joel Guzman stings, the Dodgers have baseball’s deepest system and thus cannot be worried about hoarding every prospect. Further, having Lugo made Cesar Izturis completely expendable, which meant that the Dodgers could take a flyer on 482 year old Greg Maddux. I’m not sure that Maddux has much left, but if you’re going to take a flyer on a player, taking one on a guy with 330 plus wins isn’t a bad idea.

Minnesota Twins
It was a minor move, but when the Twins moved Kyle Lohse to the Reds, they saved a little money and picked up a talented young pitching prospect for the future (Zach Ward) without affecting their roster for this year.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati continued to supplement their pitching, acquiring reliever Rheal Cormier from the Phillies and Lohse from the Twins. The Reds gave up Ward and 23 year old Justin Germano. Neither will turn out to be Francisco Liriano, nor would they have helped the Reds this year, so this was a great move for the NL Wild Card leader. Despite being 39, Cormier remains an extremely effective reliever (2-2, 12 holds, 1.59 ERA) and Lohse, despite a terrible year thus far, could have a resurgence pitching in the National League (see: Arroyo, Bronson).

Kansas City
Chalking up KC in the winners column is kind of like chalking up, ahhh… uhmmm, hhmmm… actually, this might be the first time since 1985, so lets get excited for the Royals big victory… Ok, ok, so it wasn’t a big victory, but in trading away Matt Stairs, Jeremy Affledt, and Danny Bautista for three prospects new Royals GM made the first of many, many, many, many (well, you get the point) steps in rebuilding the Royals (just writing “rebuilding” and “Royals” in the same sentence feels like an oxymoron).

Losers:

Baltimore Orioles
When the Orioles continue to flounder next year and the season after and the blame starts being tossed around like potato salad at a Bishop family reunion, then look on whom it lands. Invariably, it will land first on manager Sam Perlozzo, then finally it will find itself square on the face of GM Jim Fergusson. Of course it should really fall squarely onto the face of owner Peter Angelos, whose dubious judgment nixed a proposed trade of Miguel Tejada to the Anaheim Angels for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Santana would instantly have been Baltimore’s best pitcher since Mike Mussina left and Aybar is a slick fielding shortstop prospect who would have solidified their infield defense for next year. If I were Angelos, I might have pushed hard for super prospect Brandon Wood to be included over Aybar, since acquiring Tejada would mean that Wood’s path to the majors in Anaheim would have been blocked at both short and third, but even with Aybar this was a great trade for the Orioles. Santana is exactly the type of pitcher that Baltimore needs to be adding to their roster; combined with Canadian Erik Bedard, he would have given the Orioles the best rightie-lefty starting combo in the AL East. Angelos, who has always been too star struck for his own team’s good (see: 2005 – Sosa, Sammy) once again showed why his team has finished 4th in seven of the last eight seasons.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Xavier Nady and Shawn Chacon? A year ago I wrote that I liked the direction in which the Pirates were headed, but this move shows that I was wrong; they’re directionless. I feel sorry for local boy Jason Bay who will flounder away his best years in baseball’s Siberia.

Chicago Cubs
It’s almost as though GM Jim Hendry was worried that Dusty Baker wasn’t playing enough incompetent offensive infielders. Neifi Perez and your .678 career OPS, meet Cesar Izturis and his .634 OPS. Lets hope that Dusty can find a place for both of you and Ronny Cedeno (.640 OPS in his first whole season) in the same infield. That’d be swell.

St. Louis Cardinals
It’s been twenty odd years, so I get that Tony LaRussa doesn’t think much of young players, but really, why do they insist on trading Hector Luna (26, .772 OPS) for an older version of virtually the same player, Ronny Belliard (31, .757 OPS). Especially when you factor in that Belliard earns 4 million to Luna’s 345 thousand. Yes St. Louis also acquired Braves retread Jorge Sosa, but they did nothing to upgrade a pathetic outfield, nor an offence unhealthily dependant on studs Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen.

Toronto Blue Jays
Some might put the Red Sox here, because they failed to keep pace with the Yankees, but I have faith in the Sox’s front office assertion that nothing out there was worth surrendering their young pitchers (whose current pre-arbitration value makes them worth more than a Summer hat to a bald man), but the Sox still lead their division and they still have David Otriz (who seemingly spent most of the 2004 offseason smoking on Derek Jeter’s magic “clutch” pipe). The Jays? Well, the Jays don’t have a second starter, nor fresh arms for the bullpen. On the other hand, they do have a 6.5 game deficit in the East, a tired closer, an offence which is sputtering with runners in scoring position, and a first look at the Yankees lineup with the Abreu addition. I doubt Julio Lugo was the answer, but somebody (heck, given their troubles at short this year I might have even smiled about Iztruis), anybody would have been nice.