Baseball Questions After Week 1.

You know what I love about baseball’s offseason? The domino effect of movement. The Braves lose star shortstop Rafael Furcal to the Dodgers, and in a move to replace him, trade their star third base prospect to the Red Sox for SS Edgar Renteria. On the surface, this looks fine, because the Braves have third base filled with allstar Chipper Jones, but Chipper has been injury prone the past few years, and even when healthy, isn’t a particularly good third baseman. Had they kept Furcal, then next year they could have installed Marte at third and moved Jones to first, where Adam La Roche is not the hitter that either Jones or Marte is/will be. The Braves then would have been stronger at three integral positions. Of course Furcal is costing the Dodgers 13 million, while Renteria is only costing the Braves five (the Sox are paying the rest), so there is always a monetary consideration. However, given that Jones hurt his ankle in last nights loss, one has to wonder whether this is one domino effect the Braves will wish they had stabilized. Either way, it’s certainly a story line worth following. Here, after the first week of baseball, are 10 other story lines worth following this season, none of which involve the Baseball’s evil monkey in the closet…

1) Will Boston Regret Letting Damon Walk?

The counter side of the Atlanta domino effect is what the Sox did with Marte. After trading last year’s free agent disappointment (Renteria) for a third baseman of the future, the Sox let Johnny Damon take the Yankees money and suddenly had to use Marte in a trade for a centerfielder. Crisp may be just the player Damon is (and by the contracts end, he’ll be better), but if 3B Mike Lowell’s tank is empty, and it looked so this spring, then the Sox may regret not spending the extra money on Damon and keeping Marte.

2) Will New York Regret Signing Damon?

This might not be a story line for this year, but two years from now. Still it bears watching now. The reason that NY signed Damon was to replace a once great centerfielder whose range and arm died with age. Well, Damon already has a weak arm and at () he’s no spring chicken. Considering that the Yankees don’t need Damon as a leadoff hitter (shortstop Derek Jeter has better leadoff numbers), he really only earns his money if he improves their defense. In the short term he will, but for how long?

3) Which perennial basement dweller will make a Milwaukee like move .500?

Last year the Brewers took a forward step, and while they were far from winning a pennant, Brewer fans had to be happy to see .500 for the first time in13 years. This year some moron pundits even picked them to claim their first playoff spot since 1982, so if they are continuing on the up and up, then who among their former bottom dwellers will make a move towards respectability? Tampa has the young hitters, but it’s unclear whether their new management team has a plan; the Royals are just plain clueless; Colorado still hasn’t found any pitchers to consistently force outs in the mountains; nor has Cincinnati realized that fly ball pitchers don’t work in a park where the ball carries. So the best two bets are the Pirates who were once managed by Jim Leyland, and Jim Leyland’s current team, the Tigers. The Pirates have slowly been adding pieces to their young pitchers and the addition of the underrated Jim Tracy in the dugout will help them, but this year watch the Tigers. The A.L. is hard, and besides Kansas City, there aren’t any easy conquests in the Central, but Jim Leyland seems refreshed after his years away from managing, the Tigers have great young power arms, and a solid lineup top to bottom. Expect them to hang around the fringes of the Wild Card Race well into September and finish between 80-84 wins.

4) How will the Mazzone effect play out?

For fourteen years, the Atlanta Braves have won division titles and in only one of those seasons has their offense finished amongst the NL’s top three. Their titles have been built on the importance of defense, timely hitting, and (especially) precision pitching. Seemingly behind that has been Leo Mazzone, the only star pitching coach in baseball. So good have the Braves been over the years, that Mazzone has become the only coach to be routinely mentioned as a Hall of Fame candidate. Yet, questions remained, because Mazzone’s success could never fairly be separated from Mazzone’s bench boss, Bobby Cox. That is, until this year. Mazzone left Atlanta, to join the staff of his childhood friend, Sam Perlozzo, in Baltimore. What does this mean for the two squads? Can Mazzone work his magic with Baltimore’s young hurlers? Can he improve a squad which last year finished 10th in pitching, or was his success the result of a particular blend of circumstances? And what about Cox and the Braves? This year their pitchers have been hemorrhaging runs, but is that the loss of Mazzone, or just the reality that their staff lacks the arms it once had? This year will go a long way towards answering all those questions.

5) Why Did Billy Beane Give Esteban Loaiza 21 million For Three Years?

I understand that Oakland increased Beane’s budget and that the man is far, far smarter than I, but for the life of me I cannot fathom why after all his savvy moves he tossed money at Loaiza. Beane doesn’t look at things like wins, and he’s less concerned with ERA than you or I, but Loaiza seems a stretch, even for Beane. Pitching is expensive, but given Beane’s prowess at mining young pitchers, why would he allocate over 7 million to a 34 year old pitcher who has only two 200 inning seasons, a WHIP of 1.42, a K/BB rate of 2.30, and an OBA of .337?

6) Will the Mets (gasp) regret trading Kris Benson?

Forget for a second his playmate wife and forget any success he might have under Mazzone in Baltimore this season, because this question really boils down to whether the Mets will regret not getting 200 solid, but unspectacular, innings from Benson. The Mets are legitimate contenders to win the NL East, and are perhaps the best team in the entire NL, but their weakness is in a pitching staff where the top three starters average 36 years old. Their fourth starter is Victor Zambrano, and their fifth had ZERO career innings pitched . An injury to Pedro or Glavine could quickly quell the high expectations of the Mets.

7) Will the Angels realize that this is a rebuilding year for them?

Much like the A’s last year --- where they stayed competitive, but let their kids play --- the Angels have a chance to retool on the fly. It may involve sacrificing 5 wins this year (and thus the division), but the sooner that they devote innings to Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Casey Kotchman, the better they’ll be in the long term. Particularly if those innings (or more importantly, at bats) come at the expense of Garrett Anderson, Darrin Erstad, and Juan Rivera; each of whose tanks are running on fumes and costing the Angels victories.

8) Will the Devil Rays forget about the devil in their name and focus on winning some games?

The Rays, who are determining whether to drop the insidious Devil from their name, should instead be determining whether they plan on ever winning more games than they lose and if so, they should start by moving super prospect B.J. Upton to centerfield and then trading some of their excessive outfielders (Rocco Baldelli, Joey Gathright, and Aubrey Huff) for someone who can throw the ball across the plate. They don’t even need too strong of hurlers, because in two years, a potential lineup of Julio Lugo, Carl Crawford, Upton, Delmon Young, Jonny Gomes, and Jorge Cantu is going to RAKE.

9) On that note, will the Jays ever figure out how to beat the Devil Rays?

Ok, if, when they have those guys hitting one through six, and some decent pitchers on the mound, then fine the Jays can lose to them, but until then it is not acceptable. In this decade, the Jays have won only 57 of 108 games against the Devil Rays. By comparison, the Sox over the same period have gone 75 – 32 against Tampa. If the Jays wish to join baseball’s elite, which given the money they spent this summer they do, then they are going to have to take 13 of their 17 remaining games against the Rays.

10) Will fans realize that every time they boo Alex Rodriguez, they are booing a player who by all accounts has injected himself with nothing, but yet is well on his way to becoming one of baseball’s fifteen best players?

It’s strange the way that we take to some players and not to others. I like Jeter, something about the way he plays makes me cheer for him; thus, I’m not an ARod guy, but that doesn’t mean I can’t acknowledge that ARod is the best baseball player in the American League (determining the best between and Albert Pujols is an argument for another day). For all of the brew-ha over a certain surly outfielder in the Bay Area --- whom I’ve carefully ignored amongst things to focus on --- I find it galling that people goad ARod for something as vague as not being clutch. The guy was the best fielding shortstop in baseball, but immediately put his new team first and moved to third to avoid controversy with Jeter, he consistently hits over .300, with 45 plus homers and 100 plus RBI’s. One day he will win a championship and then everyone will suddenly realize that they’ve scornfully missed watching one of baseball’s treasures. Well save yourself the loss, skip the time, and enjoy ARod now.

How the West was Won... and the East, Central, and Wild Card.

While the American League has nine or ten teams who could win 90 games, the National League has, well, considerably fewer. The competitive balance is equally as taught, but the overall talent level of the clubs pales in comparison. 93 wins will guarantee someone a playoff spot, 90 wins should be enough to secure the wild card, and the West, well, the West should be won by somebody, I think, those are the rules aren’t they? Can we amend those mid season if we need to? Please?

NL East – Mets GM Omar Minaya made aggressive moves to upgrade the Mets behind the plate (Paul Lo Duca), at first base (Carlos Delgado), and at closer (Billy Wagner), which combined with the ascension of third baseman David Wright and a healthy Carlos Beltran have the Mets thinking pennant for the first time since 1988. Yet, shaky pitching and a general malaise of underachievement have me doubting. Philly will pose a challenge as their young hitters (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) take control of the team, and the loss of Atlanta coaching legend Leo Mazzone might hurt the Braves, but for 14 straight years the division has belonged to the Braves, and Mazzone or no Mazzone, until they cough it up I’m inclined to keep picking them.

NL Central – The Cards certainly aren’t as strong as they were last year, their corner outfielders are below average, they let a good, experienced bat at second base (Mark Grudzielanek) walk and replaced him with Aaron Miles (.303 OBP last year), and seemingly their entire bullpen was let walk. Fortunately for them Houston wont pitch as well as last year (especially if a certain someone stays away) and still cannot hit, and the Cubs fate is still tied to the health of Prior and Wood, which means another long season for fans of the south siders. The division dark horse is Milwaukee, who will be better than most believe, but still have too many holes to best Pujols and company. St Louis takes their third straight division crown.

NL West – last year the West was an embarrassment, won by the 82-80 Padres. By simple law of averages, it cannot be that bad again… can it? While logic says it wont be, the West still looks like a division which can be won by 5 poor months and one great one, but are any of the division’s 5 teams good enough to go 22-6 as the Padres did last May? The Dodgers were decimated by injuries last year, but still thought it wise to sign Nomar Garciapara, the world’s only living, walking, breathing groin pull. The over under on games played by Bonds is 60, which is 60 to few for the Giants. The Padres have the NL’s best pitcher, but nobody to hit the ball out of cavernous Petco Park. The guess here is that the Arizona Diamondbacks develop faster than anyone predicts, play solid enough ball through the first four months and make a late season charge to steal the division. Dbacks in an upset.

NL Wild Card – Houston rode phenomenal starting pitching to last year’s Wild Card, but without the Rocket, they’ll struggle to repeat that this season. Still, the consistently slow starters should put together a solid summer run, which makes them competitive in the Wild Card battle. They’ll compete with the NL East losers (Philly and the Mets) and with the teams in their own division --- I’m betting against anyone in the West posing a serious challenge. If Ben Sheets can make 30 starts for the Brewers, then they will surprise a lot of people who missed their success from last year. The Brewers out play, out hustle, and (most importantly) out pitch the competition and win the wild card.

Awards:

MVP – Baring major injury, I’m just going to write down Albert Pujols’ name for this award every year for the next decade, and more often than not I’m going to be right --- he’s just that good.

Cy Young – Johnson and Schilling went to the AL, Prior and Schmidt cannot stay healthy, the Rocket seems to have landed, and Willis wont get any run support from the kiddies he’s playing for, which means that this award will be a battle between champion Chris Carpenter, 20 game winner Roy Oswalt, and young star Jake Peavy. The smart money is on Peavy, who already has an ERA title under his belt.

Rookie Of the Year – Ten years ago, Jeter, ARod, and Nomar burst onto the scene and made shortstop the new glamour position in Major League Baseball. This year, the Nationals’ Ryan Zimmerman will emerge as the next great player in a wave of superstar third basemen who are taking the glamour from short and hitting it on over to third.

Manager of the Year – This award always goes to the manager who takes his team from average to contender, which means that this year the award is taken by Milwaukee’s cagey old manager Ned Yost.

Finally: Atlanta recovers from their recent playoff ineptitude to beat the Brewers, who are just happy to be in the playoffs. St. Louis makes easy work of the Diamondbacks, before (gasp) out pitching the Braves for the NL crown. All of which brings us a fabulously intriguing World Series with the Cardinals winning the National Leagues first World Series game in two years, but Oakland taking the series in six…

Picking Pins in a Haystack, or Prognosticating the American League...

2006 will be the year of the American League. The National League has some good teams, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves are always competitive, the New York Mets have reloaded, and if that San Francisco starter plays 120 games then the Giants will be a different team, but the American League, well, the American league will be a season long slug fest. Going into the year 9 teams are legitimate contenders for the four playoff spots. I’m not much of a mathematician, but even I can tell that will mean a lot of disappointment in many different cities. So how to sort through the confusion, well it’s fairly simple --- everybody agrees upon it and the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox just proved it: pitching wins. If you have the best pitcher on the mound that night, your team will win more often than not. Thus, the teams which escape the American League battle royal will be the ones who bring the best arm to the mound more nights than not.

AL East – By that maxim, the American League East will be won by whatever team has the best pitching. Simple. And looking at the rosters, the best rotation in the AL East belongs to… the Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, they wont win the division, because while pitching wins, the reality is that a team will never go through the full season with their 5 starting pitchers each making 32 starts. Players get hurt, sometimes they blow out an elbow, sometimes they just break a leg with a come backer up the middle, either way teams with the most resources are best equipped to deal with such blows. The Sox and Yanks each have seven prospective starters and their powerful offences give them the leeway to recover should grey beards Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling prove ineffective. The Jays will certainly be better, maybe even 90 win better, but against 100 million dream teams, that’s hardly enough. The Yanks win the division for the 8,000th year in a row.

AL Central - After the Chicago White Sox’s World Series victory, some unnamed party pooper pompously claimed that if the Sox went into next season with their 2005 roster, they wouldn’t even win their division, let alone repeat. Well, I doubt that Sox GM Kenny Williams heeded any utterance of mine, but regardless he showed himself to be one of the games most astute GM’s, by plucking Jim Thome from Philadelphia and Javier Vazquez from Arizona. Meanwhile, the Indians took a side step (they’ll be better next year, but the Andy Marte – Coco Crisp deal wont help them enough in 2006), and the Twins are left wondering if any of their hitters will match the dominance of their young hurlers. The White Sox repeat, but in a tight three way contest.

AL West – You have one team with great pitching but weak hitting, you have one team with great hitting and weak pitching, you have one team with both, and then you have the Seattle Mariners. For all the blather over “Moneyball” tactics, we sometimes lose sight of the fact that Billy Beane is an exceptional GM. Last season he was forced to depart with two of his big three pitchers, but rather than that costing his team, it served as a springboard. The Athletics enter 2006 as the most complete team in baseball. They have depth at every position and in every aspect of the game. Their offence, so anemic since Miguel Tejada left, will be productive and their pitching will be in the AL’s top 3. The A’s win the division going away.

AL Wild Card – This is where things get interesting. The Sox, despite having the best 3-4 combo in baseball have too many question marks in their rotation and too many weak links in their lineup. The Rangers will rake, but their young power arms are still a year away. The Angels can throw, but despite baseball’s best farm system, they still have no one to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. The Tribe will go as far as Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore take them, but they need more production from their corner infielders and their corner outfielders. The Twins will surprise people who think that their run is over, but they don’t have the depth to catch… The Toronto Blue Jays. Maybe I’m an optimist, but JP Ricciardi’s moves pay off with the Jays first playoff appearance since Joe Carter beat Philly with one sweet swing…

AL Awards:

MVP – Being the big gun on the World Series champions gives Paul Konerko the credit he needs to beat out A-Rod, David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero.

Cy Young – Rich Harden is a popular choice and while I’d love to predict a victory for him, I have to give it to Johan Santana, who should have won last year.

Rookie of the Year – Jonathan Pappelbon will be closing for the Red Sox before Independence Day, and like Huston Street last year, his 25 saves will be enough to sway voters away from everyday player Ian Kinsler.

Manager of the Year – Despite how much money J.P. spent, if John Gibbons leads Toronto past the Red Sox, Angels, and Tribe into the playoffs, he will be the manager of the year.

Finally: In the American League playoffs, riding the hot streak which took them to the playoffs, Toronto is able to upset the World Series champion White Sox. Meanwhile, the Yanks and A’s go the distance before the A’s superior depth sends the Boss into a massive coronary. Just as it was in the early 90s, the Jays’ path to the World Series is blocked by an older, more experienced Oakland team, who wins the AL Pennant, going to the World Series to meet… (don’t you just hate to be continues).