Champagne Baths and Ping Pong Balls...

If any league has ever desperately wanted their regular season to end and their post season to begin, it’s the NBA this year. Between the rampant tanking for draft position, and Joey Crawford’s recent ejection of Tim Duncan (which is no laughing matter by the way), NBA commissioner David Stern must be unusually thankful that his season’s over and the focus of the public will be on first round matchups and not fired refs, brawls, new balls, and subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) improving lottery odds

From 16 to number 1 here’s how I’d rank the likelihood of a June Champagne bath for the playoff teams:

16) Washington Wizards – The Wizards are still missing a rugged low post presence to balance out their roster… Oh no, wait, that’s not why they’re the team Toronto, Chicago, and Cleveland spent all week trying to secure in the first round, it’s because Agent Zero, who along might have pulled a first round upset, is stuck on the sidelines until next season.
15) Orlando Magic – The worst team in the playoffs goes against title tested Detroit. Sorry Magic, but Dwight Howard is still too young, and the rest of the roster to anemic, for you to upset the Chauncey Billups’ crew.
14) Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are free-falling, but then of course nobody plays well when they lose both their starting power forward and their starting center. Yes, Kobe alone could win a series, but against the Suns. Not this year.
13) Golden State Warriors – You have to love the Don Nelson versus Dallas first round match up, and yes, GS had incredible success against the Warriors this year, but they aren’t taking the Mavs beyond six games.
12) New Jersey Nets – Another just incredible first round pairing, at least from a water cooler perspective, the Nets are fortunate that Arenas’ injury crippled the Wizards and allowed the Nets to pass them, because Vince Carter might actually try if it means upsetting his former employers, against Chicago they’d have lost fast.
11) Utah Jazz – Utah fans will go apocalyptic about being a slot behind a division rival they beat by six games, but the Jazz have been slumping for two months now. Andrei Kirilenko never broke out of his funk, and they still lack a reasonable starting two guard. What looked like a great first round match up with Houston, now looks like a five or six game series.
10) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets have finally clicked and if the result isn’t exactly scaring the Spurs, it’s at least making them sweat a little.
9) Toronto Raptors – Not this year for the Raptors, but of course if I’d said six months ago that they’d win their division, finish with the third seed, and possibly win a first round series, well, I think most Raptors’ fans would have been pretty happy with that.
8) Chicago Bulls – Wow, did the Bulls ever drop the ball last night in New Jersey. With the second seed and an opening round match up with Washington on the line, the Bulls lost to the Nets giving the Heat in round one, the Pistons in round two, and the Cavs in round three… ouch.
7) Miami Heat – the Heat have three things going for them: Shaquille O’Neal’s their starting center, Dwayne Wade’s their starting two guard, and Pat Riley’s their bench boss. I think Chicago is perfectly capable of beating them, as we almost saw last year, but I think the Heat are more likely to go all the way.
6) Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron is actually good enough to lead the Cavs out of the East, and their path to the finals was made much easier by their win, and Chicago’s loss last night, but how can I pick a team to win it all with Eric Snow as the starting point guard?
5) Houston Rockets – The Rockets are a chic dark horse team to win it all. With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy, I think the Rockets will make short work of Utah and give Dallas everything the Mavs can handle, but I’m not convinced the Rockets are deep enough to take down the Mavs and the winner of Spurs-Suns.
4) Detroit Pistons – The Pistons are another beneficiary of the Bulls blunder, because they now will play a second round match up against a team that’s given everything to get past round one. I think they’re a little too old, a little too banged up, but nobody’s going to be taking the Pistons for granted.
3) Dallas Mavericks – The Mavs won a league best 67 games, something which has only been done eight time in NBA history. Of those eight, only the 72/73 Celtics failed to convert their regular season success into an NBA championship. So, the smart money would be on the Mavericks winning everything. So why do I have them third? Stupidity mostly, a vague feeling that they weren’t quite as good as their record, and that San Antonio of the Suns will take them in a seven game series.
2) San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs were actually the leagues best team over the season’s second half, and their 8.4 point differential was the best in the league. Yes, they might have the refs against them, but I imagine that an early game call going against them is the most the Joey Crawford fiasco will affect them. David Stern will make it very clear to the refs calling the Spurs games that everything has to be on the even. He can’t have the suggestion of refs with an agenda.
1) Phoenix Suns – I don’t like that they have to play the Spurs in the second round, which is why winning 68 games would have been good. But the Suns don’t have the depth that the Mavs do, to make every game count. In the playoffs however, I think the strength of their top six overcomes the depth of Dallas and San Antonio. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but it seems that the Steve Nash has that determined look this year. He’s still having fun, but he’s fierce at the same time.



And in the season that will forever be remembered for it’s blatant tank jobs, I’d be remiss if I talked about the playoff team without mentioning this year’s (ahem) losers… here’s how I want the lottery results to play out:

1) Boston – The Celtics should be a great team. Even though I dread the thought of Bill Simmons wetting himself over the chance to draft one of the big two (Greg Oden or Kevin Durant), I just cannot escape the thought that seeing a team with such a storied history, languishing in mediocrity and irrelevance is heartbreaking. It’s the same reason that three years ago when the NHL conducted its “Sidney Draft” I was secretly hoping that Montreal would win the rights to Crosby. Sure, it would have meant watching my roommate, Big Sexy, walk around with a boner for two months, but at least the greatest franchise in NHL history would have mattered. A top two pick in this draft will make the Celtics relevant and that’s all I can ask for. (Greg Oden).

2) Portland – If the Trailblazers defied the odds and won the lottery I’d be Ok with that. Sure it’s not quite Celtic lore, but this is a proud fan base that’s suffered egregious harm from Paul Allen’s questionable ownership. Actually, David Stern should use his phenomenal powers (I’m pretty sure he can affect the lottery, just with the power of his brain, kind of like a Jedi mind trick, but without the goofy hair), to put Oden or Durant in Portland. (Kevin Durant).


3) Chicago – When James Dolan gave Isaiah Thomas the hearty thumbs up for a job well done, the pick that Chicago would have gotten from the Knicks was 16th, which wouldn’t have made the Eddy Curry trade so terrible. Of course, if Curry doesn’t tip in that last second shot against Charlotte last night the Bulls would’ve had 5.8% chance of the top spot, but instead they have a 1.867% chance, still jumping up to third would still make the trade lopsided. (Al Horford).

4) Memphis – The Grizzlies last place finish means that they can drop to no worse than fourth, so whatever, they finish here, maybe if they’d never left their much, much cooler home I’d want them to win the lottery, but in Memphis? Even the local Elvis’ don’t care… (Joakim Noah).

5) Milwaukee – Did you know that there’s a 15.6% chance that Milwaukee wins the lottery and Durant plays the first decade of his career in Wisconsin? Actually the odds are higher if you figure out what the possibility of them winning the second slot are. With a frontline of him, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva they’d be good, really good, but… ughhh… Wisconsin? Really? For some reason it bothers me less for Oden than Durant, I’m not sure why. (Julian Wright)

6) Phoenix – The Suns can get the fourth pick if Atlanta’s pick ends up outside the top three. And at worst, they’ll end up with the 6th choice, which is still good enough in this draft to grab an awesome talent. Of course, it’s just as likely that Atlanta ends up in the top three. (Brandon Wright).

7) Seattle – If the Sonics take Chad Ford’s sixth rated prospect, then we can see how giant Chinese youngster gets along with the folks in Oklahoma City. (Yi Jianlian).

8) Minnesota – After the top three selections the lottery just conforms to the standings (with ties decided by coin flip), which really makes the rest of this just an exercise in typing and pithy comments. (Mike Conley).

9) Charlotte – The Bobcats could actually contend for a playoff spot next year just by having Sean May, Raymond Felton, and Emeka Okafor healthy, but getting someone special in the ninth spot certainly would help. (Corey Brewer).

10) Sacramento – The Kings need to blow things up. Find Mike Bibby a new home (difficult, but probably not impossible), find Ron Artest a new home (quite possibly impossible), and draft a replacement for the suddenly ancient Brad Miller (entirely possible in this draft). (Spencer Hawes).

11) Atlanta – Even if the Hawks are shut out of the top part of the draft, which they very well might not be, they’ll still get to draft in the lottery thanks to the Pacers’ acquisition of Al Harrington. Since Harrington’s already been traded by Indiana, who subsequently missed the playoffs, this actually is one of Billy King’s better deals. (Roy Hibbert).

12) Philadelphia – Philly fans thought the 76ers thought they’d be challenging for Oden, but the AI trade and subsequent dumping Chris Webber, actually made them a pretty good team. (Jeff Green).

13) New Orleans – Another club that needs some good health to be in the playoffs. Since their .6% chance of winning the lottery seems unlikely of helping them out, they’d better hope that freshman studs like Thaddeus Young and Chase Buddinger come out. Both will probably still be here at 13, but only because the top of this draft is so good.

14) Los Angeles – The only way the Clippers season is not seen as incredibly disappointing is if they pull a 1993 Magic and go from the worst lottery odds, to lottery Kings. But that’s about as likely as me winning the big 12 million draw this weekend. (Acie Law).