Drowning in a Yellow Sea...

In the end 67 victories mattered not, as the NBA’s regular season MVP and his team drowned in a rabid, churning yellow sea, a buzzing, hornet-like storm they could not have anticipated and couldn't combat. For hoops fans in Oakland, the scene was reminiscent of the Detroit Tigers and their raucous celebration after breaking a decade worth of losing, last fall against New York. For Dallas, the series made 82 regular season games more than meaningless. Like Detroit last year, who poured everything into a record setting early season pace, only to lose in the second round of the playoffs to a late jelling team, Dallas seemingly expended their best through the winter. What they found in Golden State, was a swirling dervish of a team. Something without rhyme or reason, which made it incredibly difficult for their coaches to make adjustments. Conversely, they also found a team, whose opposing coach knew exactly what adjustments to make on them. Who intimately knew their offence and how to throw different defenders, from different angles at Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, it was a terrible performance by the presumed MVP, but it would be a disservice to both the Warriors and Dirk himself, to claim he choked. Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Baron Davis and the rest of the Warriors defenders (a team not particularly well known for their defense), were perfectly suited for defending Dirk. Golden State coach Don Nelson was Dirk’s coach for six plus seasons, and thus he knew where Dirk wanted to take his shots. Under his guidance, the Warriors’ defenders kept Dirk out of those spots and forced him to take difficult shots, harassed by a harem of defenders.

Of course, the league’s best player is supposed to adjust and with the exception of a 3 minute stretch at the end of game five, Dirk never adjusted. He wasn’t alone, Avery Johnson was unable to overcome the match up nightmares created by his mentor, and both he and Dallas owner Mark Cuban fell pray to the war of words with Nellie, a war which a 67 win team should never have to engage in. Michael Jordan, renowned for his killer instinct, was also known as a phenomenal trash talker, but his talk was always based around arrogance. He knew he was the best and he knew you weren’t going to beat him. This week, as Cuban claimed that Nellie was afraid to coach team’s with great expectations, Johnson suggested that the pressure was all on Golden State, and Dirk whined, they didn’t sound like a team that knew they were the best, they sounded like a team making excuses in case they lost. It was Golden State that had the swagger, led by Baron Davis, who was clearly the best player on the floor, Stephen Jackson, who’s championship experience, and “you never know when I might run into the crowd” crazy man edge were invaluable, and Nellie, they seemed relaxed yet cocksure. They were ready to fight, whether it was within the context of the game, or to protect one of their own after the whistle had blown. Loose balls landed in their hands, not because they were standing in the right spots, but because they ran them down. While Dallas feared losing, Golden State seemed sure that they could, and ultimately would, win. Basketball, more than any sport, is a game of rhythm and momentum, while Dallas struggled to find a rhythm, Golden State grabbed the momentum, which gave them a rhythm and suddenly that cylinder was eight feet wide and everything was falling, even off balance, toss it up while lunging to get a foul call, threes. When Davis hit that improbable shot, and the sea of yellow went bananas (no pun intended), the writing was clearly on the wall: after 16 years, the Golden State Warriors are going to the second round and the team with 67 wins is going fishing.

It was an incredible performance by one of pro basketball’s most exciting team’s, in front of what has to be it’s greatest fans (or at least loudest) and it left me with five thoughts:

1) If you look solely at their respective records, this might seem like the biggest upset in NBA history, but I would argue that Dallas wasn’t as good as their record (I did have them third in my ranking of playoff teams), and Golden State was better than their record, just getting healthy at the right time, putting the teachings of Nellie into full throttle, and meeting an opponent that was perfect for them. A massive upset? Yes, of course. The greatest of all time? No, I think that remains Denver over the Sonics in 1994.

2) Given that Stephen Jackson just was the primary defender involved in shutting down Dirk, while also averaging 22 points on 45% shooting, including 33 in last night’s series clinching game, it’s hard to remember that he was such a pariah three months ago that Indiana couldn’t give him away. As ESPN’s Bill Simmons has repeatedly said, a team can survive with one headcase, it’s only when a second one’s added that things become problematic. This is particularly true if they are surrounded by a coach with a strong presence (Don Nelson) and an alpha male star (Baron Davis). That was the secret of Dennis Rodman’s success in Chicago (Phil Jackson and Michael Jordan). Yet that raises a question, why weren’t more contending teams interested? I can see that Jackson would have been a disaster on a team like Charlotte, but why weren’t the Heat (Pat Riley and Shaq), the Jazz (Jerry Sloan and Carlos Boozer), or Lakers (Phil and Kobe) trying to nab him in January? Or, given his knowledge of the Spurs, and the way he just helped eliminate the Mavericks, wouldn’t the Suns have been better off if they’d packaged something with free agent disappointment, Marcus Banks, for Jackson?

3) So where does Dallas go from here? Was this just a random bad stretch in an otherwise brilliant season? Or are there fundamental problems with the team that need fixing? This will be a huge offseason for Dallas as they decide which direction they head in. Really the decision all boils down to whether Dirk is the guy who can lead his team to a title or not. If they still think he can, then they look to resign Jerry Stackhouse and perhaps find a more natural point to improve their half court distribution. If they think he isn’t that guy, then they need to see what packages team’s can put together for him. That may involve a straight up trade for another talent (Indiana’s Jermaine O’Neal) that keeps them competing, or it might involve a package of younger players (say, Boston) which sets off a rebuilding phase. Either way, the decision begins with what Mark Cuban thinks about Dirk Nowitzki.

4) Generally, I have no problem with the way the NBA maintains their seeding, but this year I wish that, like the NHL, the NBA would re-seed after the first round. In part that’s because I think that the two best teams in basketball are, for the second straight year, meeting in the second round, but also it’s just that I would love to watch Phoenix and Golden State go at it in round two. While San Antonio would be a great match up with Houston (assuming they hold serve at home in game seven Saturday night), the Suns Warriors series would stylistically be majestic. Of course, it still might happen, but, oddly enough it seems more likely that Golden State will be there than Phoenix.

5) Which brings us to the most important question of all for Warrior fans, how far can they go? The honest answer right now, assuming that Baron Davis’ hamstrings aren’t going to be an issue, is that it seems clear they can make the conference finals. Houston has two great players, each of whom is somewhat ungaurdable, but Golden State has the small bodies to make life annoying for McGrady and Nellie has frequently proven that he’s a master at taking big centers, of which Houston has an extreme one, out of games. If they face Utah, then we’ll see two offensive teams opening up, but I think the Warriors just have a few more horses, and that Davis shows young Utah point guard Deron Williams what’s the meaning of veteran savvy. Once in the conference finals, I think that the winner of San Antonio Phoenix will just be too strong for Golden State to beat in a seven game series. Of course, that’s what we all just said about Dallas…