Oops I did it WRONG again...

It was an incredibly poor performance really. Lost job bad, actually. No, not Joe Torre’s job managing the Yankees against Detroit, but my job picking the Baseball playoffs winners. Just because I’m a glutton for punishment, lets do a little casual review: I picked the Yankees in three, Tigers won in four; I picked the Twins in five, A’s swept; I picked the Dodgers in four, the Mets swept; and finally, I picked the Padres in four, but the Cards won it instead. Personally, I think that I should at least get some credit for picking the correct number of games in the Cards – Padres series, but that’s just me. As for the rest of it, well, it’s not pretty. In fact, it’s downright ugly. Oh-fer, ouch. Hey, that’s why they play the games, I’m just here because I know the correct uses of :their, there, and they’re, not because I have ay special prognostication abilities. I mean lets face it, if I had any real insight, I’d be sitting at the bookies, not in front of the computer (not that Achanceyougottatake Sports condones gambling, lets be clear about this, we do not condone gambling… but winning money does have its benefits). All we can do after such a terrible showing is to pore ourselves a stiff drink, look back at our mistakes and learn some lessons for the future. That way, in about two hundred years I should be almost perfect, or if not perfect, at least able to predict that the Dodgers don’t have the power to beat the Mets.

So, since every thing I said before the division series was wrong and since we wont be seeing a San Diego – New York series, I need to make some sort of prediction. So, let me see, uhmmm… ahh… I have NO idea. Ok, lets do something radical here, lets get out that old magic Tupence and flip for it, ready? No, I can’t do that? Unscientific? What do you mean unscientific? We’re not just talking about any old coin here, it’s a Tupence. And not just any Tupence, but a magic Tupence. Magic! Well, no I don’t think that Peter Gammons ever consulted a magic Tupence, but what’s your point? Yes he is in the Hall of Fame, yes he’s probably the greatest baseball writer of all time, but… Ok, sweetie you’re right. If Peter wouldn’t use a magic Tupence then I shouldn’t either. But just remember that this was your idea…

Oakland – Detroit:

Pitching Edge – Well both staffs are very good and very deep. Both bullpen’s throw hard and throw strikes. The edge probably goes to Detroit who were slightly better during the regular season.

Hitting Edge – Frank Thomas is the best hitter in what is generally a weak hitting series. Detroit’s guys lack patience in the batters box, a weakness which could be exposed against Barry Zito and his big sweeping curve. Neither are great, but Oakland’s offence has the better chance to put runs on the board.

Managing Edge – Both guys are well regarded, of course Detroit’s Jim Leyland is worshipped and he’s got the ring. However, neither man in infallible. Leyland seems to have drunk the same Nieif Perez cool aid that Dusty Baker drank and Oakland’s Ken Macha is devaluing Danny Haren by pegging Esteban Loaiza to start game two. As I said, Leyland’s got the ring, but he’d better keep Perez’s butt on the pine.

X-factor – Well the X-factor could be Detroit’s young pitchers, but they seemed to slay that particular dragon when they beat the tar out of the Yankees, so I’m going to say that it’s Oakland’s Rich Harden, who Macha has pegged to pitch game three and (potentially) game 7. How healthy is Harden? How sharp is his stuff? How many innings can he go? If Harden pitches like the ace he is, then Oakland gets a huge edge, but if he’s still recovering from the myriad of injuries which held him out all summer then…

Bottom Line: Pitching, pitching, pitching. That is what this series will come down to. I like both staffs, but I like the Tigers’ guys just a little bit more. Unless Harden’s in top form, I like the Tigers in seven.

New York – St Louis:

Pitching Edge – Without Pedro Martinez, Chris Carpenter is hands down the best pitcher in this series, but since he finished off the Padres in game four, he wont go until game three. Really this is the ugliest pitching lineup ever in the Playoffs. The game four match-up is a scintillating duel between rookie Anthony Reyes (5.06 ERA) and trade throw-in Oliver Perez (6.55). Given the starters, this series is about the bullpen. Which means I give a h-U-g-e edge to the Mets and their number one ranked pen.

Hitting Edge – Uhhmmm… well my regular readers know the hard on I get at the mere mention of Albert Pujols, but besides him the Cards have the broken down Scott Rolen, the ageing Jim Edmonds, and the scrappy (which is a lot like crappy, but with an S in front of it) David Eckstein; the Mets have the indomitable Carlos Beltran, who hit four home runs in seven exceptional games the last time he played against Pujols in an NLCS, but they also have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Cliff Floyd. So again, the h-U-g-e edge goes to the Mets.

Managing Edge – Tony LaRussa has his fans and his detractors, but this is his eleventh time in the post season, so he’s no novice to the pressure and mind games of October ball. The Mets Willie Randolph is taking his first crack, but he learned his trade sitting beside Joe Torre. Toss up really, but I give the edge to LaRussa.

X-Factor – Chasing the Mets starters. Given how banged up his starters were Willie Randolph went to his bullpen early in the Division Series. With the extra work that they’ve been exposed to, the Mets relievers could wear out if the Cards can put repeated early pressure on them.

Bottom Line: St. Louis’ rotation is an embarrassment. Just ugly. Jeff Weaver is starting game one, that’s right, the same Jeff Weaver who was canned by the Angels earlier this year. I wouldn’t bet against Carpenter, but other than him the Cards are in trouble. I like the Mets in five.