Monday, May 21, 2007

No Champagne Supernova for the Suns this Year...

In the end, the Suns didn’t lose because of suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw, and they didn’t because of a cut that couldn’t be salved, but because for nine minutes bridging the end of the third and start of the fourth quarter, the Phoenix Suns, couldn’t make a shot. Yes, they were pooched by some ridiculous calls, but as Leandro Barbosa stood all alone on the three point line and clanged his shot of the back rim, it became apparent that the Suns were going to lose, not because of all the crap piled against them, but because they couldn’t do the single thing they are known for: the couldn’t make a basket. As Manu Ginobili and Michael Finely rained threes and Tony Parker dropped deep twos, the Suns looked discombobulated, confirming Mike D’Antoni’s contention that San Antonio plays together better, although perhaps not his contention that his Suns have more talent. And while I believed that Nash would stand up and drive them to victory, his efforts came too little to late. Down twenty with nine minutes left against the Spurs is not the time to attempt a comeback, but that was how bad things went for the Suns, so quickly, from up one with 6:47 remaining in the third, to down 20. In that time, Nash had two assist, one turnover, and no shots. He also sat out four and a half minutes, and I know that Nash runs at a frantic pace on old legs, but for four and a half minutes, while he was on the bench, the Suns’ season slipped away.

So where does Phoenix go from here? Did this loss prove that their system cannot beat the Spurs? Or did it merely show that this year, with luck, bloody noses, and the commissioners office against them, they couldn’t beat the Spurs. How do they go forward? With their payroll jumping headfirst into luxury tax zone, owner Robert Sarver has said he wants to remain beneath the tax threshold, which means that somebody has to be moved. Complicating that is that the Suns’ need to deepen their bench at the same time. They need to find a competent backup to give Nash some breathers (Barbosa’s obviously great, but he’s more of a two) and another live body or two for the rotation. Obviously Nash isn’t being moved, which means that either Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion will have to be moved if the Suns are going to escape the tax. Now perhaps Sarver, believing that they were jobbed this year, will give them one more year and pay the price, but if he doesn’t…

Rumor One:

The big rumor working the mill is that the Suns will try to package Marion and the pick that they get from the Hawks together, in an attempt to move up for Kevin Durant. Now, not only will this require the Suns getting the Hawks pick, a possibility, but nothing near a guarantee, but it would also involve someone actually wanting to give up the rights to Durant, which is possible but not probable. Even for Marion and the fourth pick, Durant is seen as such a unique and phenomenal talent that it’s unlikely a team would sacrifice his potential brilliance. The possibility of having the next “Jordan” is too great to pass up for most teams.

Rumor Two:

This one comes direct from Bill Simmons and plausibility wise, it’s actually pretty good. The Suns put Amare Stoudemire together with Marcus Banks and Eric Piatkowski (for money reasons) in a deal for Kevin Garnett. Maybe they also swap draft picks, or give Minnesota their pick from Cleveland, but while Garnett costs them slightly offensively, he certainly helps them with defense, rebounding, and neutralizing Tim Duncan. It makes sense for Minnesota, as Stoudemire is six years younger than Garnett and as close as they are ever going to come in terms of a straight up swap of talent. Will it happen? Well, probably not, because as Bill would likely note, it just makes too much sense for NBA GMs to consider…

Other options:

Denver might be looking to get out from beneath the contract of Marcus Camby, which would open the door a crack towards a deal with Phoenix. This wouldn’t help them financially, but they could move Thomas’ final year with a package of picks. It probably isn’t enough for Camby, but it’d be worth a shot to acquire a fleet shot blocking center who could start the break and still get down court in time to finish it at the rim.

Alternatively, the Suns could get crazy and make a play for Ron Artest, whom Sacramento will spend all summer trying to move. Although this would be lunacy, it also might be one of those gambles that pay off.

The Dream Scenario:

In a perfect storm type summer, the Suns could actually pull off both of the rumored moves, as they generally involve separate pieces. If say, Boston got the second pick, they could convince Danny Ainge that he’d be better off complementing Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson with Marion and Corey Brewer (drafted fourth), than just Durant, while simultaneously making the pitch for Garnett. Sure, it’s incredibly unlikely, but from a fantasy standpoint, the thought of the Suns breaking things up and re-tooling with both Durant and Garnett is pretty awesome. Pushed by Nash, the Suns’ new front court would be lethal, long on defense, capable of rebounding over anyone (remember that Durant averaged over 11 rebounds in college and rebounding numbers usually translate quite accurately from college to the pros), and of scoring from multiple spots on the floor. Of course this requires the NBA gods favoring the Suns tomorrow when the balls come out of the lottery, and it involves Ainge and Minnesota GM Kevin McHale being dumb enough to make the deals. Hhmmm… so maybe it isn’t such an impossibility after all.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Big Shot Rob Strikes Again, and the Suns Pay...

Once again the NBA followed the letter of the law and completely missed the point. Every major brawl in NBA history is the result of an uncalled for, over the top foul that ignites tempers on both sides. Yet, the NBA consistently punishes the wrong team for such fouls. Detroit’s Ben Wallace pounds Ron Artest to the ground, igniting the worst riot in NBA history, and who pays the worst price? The Pacers, who are still trying to recover from the destruction of what many thought was a championship team. New York’s Mardy Collins gives a pile driver foul on Denver’s J.R. Smith and who ends up paying the worst price? The Nuggets who lose Carmelo Anthony, the NBA’s leading scorer, for 15 games. Big shot Rob comes up with a BIG shot on Steve Nash, and who gets punished? The Suns, who will lose their home court advantage by playing game five without all-NBA first teamer Amare Stoudemire, and without Boris Diaw. Look, I’m not saying that the NBA shouldn’t suspend players who come off the bench and cause the melee to escalate, all I’m saying is that they’re trying to stop the spread of fire, instead of focusing on stopping the ignition. Basically, what they’ve told the Suns, is that tonight, at some point in the game when Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are on the bench, the Suns should send Pat Burke into the game to lay a hard foul on a driving Manu Ginobili. The reality is that Duncan and Parker will jump up and come to the defense of their teammate (as they should), be suspended for that decision, and the Suns will trade the services of Burke for a game without Parker or Duncan. That’s the logic that the NBA continues to lay out in these situations, when they punish the team that was assaulted, but gives the assaulting team a relative pass. It’s stupid. In this situation, Stoudemire was detained by Suns coaches before he got anywhere near the fight, and Diaw turned himself around. If you actually watch the tape it seems as though Diaw is actually more concerned for Nash and turns back to the bench when he sees Nash get up. So, basically he was suspended for taking two steps towards a fallen teammate and turning around again, wow that’s smart justice!

What does this mean for the Suns? It means that they dust off Jalen Rose, and perhaps Marcus Banks, if only to play five or six minutes each, they also play the whole game with their smallest possible lineup, get pounded on the boards, and use Shawn Marion for all 48 minutes. Can they win? Sure, we have seen in the past, even by these Suns (last year when Raja Bell was suspended for his legendary clothesline of Kobe Bryant), that teams rally for a game when their teammate is suspended. After the Malice at the Palace, the Pacers won their first game without Jermaine O’Neal, Stephen Jackson, and Ron Artest, after the Knicks brawl the Nuggets won their first game without Anthony and Smith, while those teams eventually succumbed to playing without their best players, they rallied for one game. Of course neither of them, nor the Suns last year, were playing the San Antonio Spurs. Really, whether the Suns win or not comes down to their two time MVP. I said at the beginning of this series that the Suns were going to win because of Nash, and this is his moment. This has been a hard series for him, he missed the crucial moments of game one because his nose was gushing blood, he was kneed in the nards by Bruce Bowen, and now, because Robert Horry hammered him into the boards he’s lost his best big man, so what can he do? He can step up, shoot the lights out, get all of his troops on the same page, and will them to victory. If the Suns lose, they’ll lose because of the suits in New York, but if they win, they’ll win because they have the two time MVP and despite what some might think, he actually is that good. Like I said, it’s his moment, his moment to prove those who doubt his MVP awards wrong, his moment to get revenge for all the blows the Spurs have laid on him, his moment to push his nemesis to the brink of elimination, whether he grabs that moment will determine whether the Suns go home, or go BIG.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Clearing Out the NBA Notebook...

The NBA announced their all-NBA teams today and unlike most of the other awards this season, I actually think they got it fairly right. If I were going to quibble about anything, it would be that LeBron James should be on the first team. A move which would send Amare Stoudemire to the second team as a center, promote Kevin Garnett to the second at forward, bump Yao Ming to the third, Dwight Howard out all together, with Shawn Marion added to the third as a forward. While that seems drastic, it’s more just a chain reaction thing than a real cataclysmic restructuring of their decisions. What this really means though, is that we’re only a few days away from the big MVP announcement…

The Idiocy of NBA Playoff Scheduling…



I continue to be confounded, and annoyed, by the NBA’s playoff seeding and schedule. Three nights off between games two and three in the Suns-Spurs series is just down right stupid. Not as stupid as having those two teams playing in the second round, but stupid all the same. You want to maximize the intensity of your playoffs so that fans get into series and have to keep following them. The longer you break the action, and for that point, the longer you draw out the whole proceedings, the less interest fans take. There are four series going on right now, which means I should be able to watch two games every night. Instead, I never know who’s going to be playing, I have to go look online, find out it’s only one game and find other things to occupy my time. Obviously I’m going to come back, but what about the fans who find other things to occupy their time and then forget about the playoffs? Why give them the option? I know that the NBA’s logic is that the longer the playoffs go, the longer the NBA’s in the national consciousness, but I think instead the longer it goes the more irrelevant it becomes. Like the NFL playoffs, the NBA needs to work on making their postseason, shorter, tighter, and thus hotter.

The Idiocy of NBA Playoff Seeding…



Likewise, they need to ensure that the best teams are meeting as late as possible, which means reseeding after the first round. David Stern said to the guys on PTI the other day that the reason the NBA doesn’t reseed after the first round of the playoffs is because the TV guys don’t want to… Uhmmm… really? This is Stern we’re talking about. The man who walks into every meeting knowing that he’s the smartest man at the table, who rules his team with a Stalin-esque influence, who single handedly fixed the 1985 draft to give Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, while simultaneously infiltrating the Soviet Union to bring down the Red Menace. I mean, is there anything he cannot do? Still, if I were a TV executive reading that quote, I’d think to myself, “wait, I do want the best teams meeting as late as possible, and apparently we control that…” This actually might be the moment to try and push through something like that, because I am pretty sure that Stern is distracted right now. I have no real doubts that he’s using his considerable mind powers to alter the memories of every single MVP voter into believing that they voted for Steve Nash, LeBron James, or any member of the Detroit Pistons not named Rasheed Wallace. That way when the MVP announcement goes out and it’s not Dirk, nobody will be surprised. This will be the true test of how far his powers go.

Counter Move, Counter Back…



I was impressed with the lineup changes that Mike D’Antoni made prior to game two, moving eighth man Kurt Thomas into the starting lineup to pester Tim Duncan, which allowed Shawn Marion to use his inhuman reach and athleticism to contain Tony Parker. Thomas helped to neutralize the Spurs advantage on the boards, while only taking a little away from the Suns offensive attack. The real advantage though, came in allowing two of the Suns weaker defenders, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, to cover the Spurs weakest offensive weapons (Bruce Bowen and Francisco Elson). It actually also makes Nash a better defensive weapon, because while his lateral speed makes him a one on one liability (especially against the lightning quick Parker), Nash is an underrated help defender, who sees the passing lanes well, knows the angles, and is fully committed to sacrificing his body in front of much larger players. All of that is neutered if he’s covering Parker, but leaving Bowen to take a charge from Ginobili is an easy choice.

At this point, the Suns have to know that they made the right adjustments to beat San Antonio, and that they were a good bandaid away from leaving Phoenix with a two-oh lead, but they also had better know that Greg Popovich is pretty good at his job, and that he’s going to come back with some changes for them. Game three isn’t a must win for either team, but I’d bet the winner on Saturday wins the series.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Let's Get Ready To Rumble...

Normally, I don’t bother to break down playoff series until the finals, but with the NBA’s two best teams (sorry Dallas, but you clearly were shown to be wanting) meeting in the second round, this just might be the NBA finals, only with the winner having to prove themselves for two more rounds. And, while I wish that the NBA reseeded after the first round, so that we could see Golden State run with Phoenix and San Antonio’s big men topple Houston’s Yao, you cannot deny the excitement of two pillars of NBA style meeting in the second round. Sure, the second round is too early for either team to be eliminated, but given the championship expectations of both clubs, lasting one extra round will hardly reduce the smarting of elimination.

Matchups:

Point Guard:
Phoenix - Steve Nash (PPG 18.6 | APG 11.6 | SPG 0.8 | PER 23.87)
San Antonio - Tony Parker (PPG 18.6 | APG 5.5 | SPG 1.1 | PER 21.46)
Diagnosis: Obviously Nash is the better and more important player, which isn’t about denigrating Parker, who is a better point guard than all but five men in the NBA, but Nash is a two time MVP, and while some might question that, they shouldn’t. He has raised, and adapted, his game for three straight years to ensure one thing: that his team wins. This year, when the re-integration of Amare Stoudemire seemed as though it might pull the team apart, it was Nash who drove them on a 30 of 32 win streak that galvanized the team currently before us. All season he’s played with a look that made me think he deserved a third MVP. Parker’s good, maybe bordering on great, but…
The Word: The “three” time MVP, Steve Nash, is in a different world.

Shooting Guard:
Phoenix - Raja Bell (PPG 14.7 | APG 2.5 | 3P% .413 | PER 12.01)
San Antonio - Michael Finely (PPG 9 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.3 | PER 13.76)
Diagnosis: This matchup points to the failings of analyzing teams in this fashion. In reality, Finely starts the game and then, depending on the matchups, either switches to small forward or gives way to Manu Ginobili. Bell plays a much larger part, defending the opposing team’s best wing, hitting the occasional three, and providing the Suns’ toughness. Both players are important and both contribute in their own way. If each were to play 48 minutes, then tonight, Bell would be the more important player, but you cannot discount the presence of Manu, which makes…
The Word: This is a wash.

Small Forward:
Phoenix - James Jones (PPG 6.4 | RPG 2.3 | APG 0.6 | PER 10.81)
San Antonio - Bruce Bowen (PPG 6.2 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.4 | PER 7.18)
Diagnosis: In the same way that the Spurs start Finely, but bring Manu in for the brunt of the minutes, James Jones starts for the Suns, but it’s Leandro Barbosa who dominates games. For most of the season the Suns started Boris Diaw here, but the flabby Frenchman failed to adapt to the presence of Amare Stoudemire, so Suns coach Mike D’Antoni went instead to Jones. This helps the starting unit and the second unit, as Diaw can create bigger mismatches against opposing teams’ second units. Bowen, obviously, is an integral part of the Spurs. While his defense slipped during the first half of the season, his 37 year old legs recovered to put together another all-defense caliber season. Like Bell, Bowen plays defense and hits threes, which, given the limited role of Jones, is…
The Word: Enough to give Bowen a slight edge.

Power Forward:
Phoenix - Shawn Marion (PPG 17.5 | RPG 9.8 | BPG 1.5 | PER 20.87)
San Antonio - Tim Duncan (PPG 20 | RPG 10.6 | BPG 2.4 | PER 26.2)
Diagnosis: ESPN’s John Hollinger would argue, correctly in my estimation, that Duncan is in fact a center. In reality, Elson starts the game, plays eight minutes, with another eight at the start of the second half, and after that Duncan shifts over to center when the Spurs go small, but then, Marion’s arguably a small forward, so really both are the most important defensive pieces of their team, create matchup problems, and score important points, only…
The Word: Duncan is, plain and simple, the better player.

Center:
Phoenix - Amare Stoudemire (PPG 20.4 | RPG 9.6 | BPG 1.3 | PER 23.15)
San Antonio - Francisco Elson (PG 5 | RPG 4.8 | BPG 0.8 | PER 11.26)
Diagnosis: Perhaps the single most important matchup of the series will be how San Antonio handles Stoudemire. Two years ago when these two teams met, Stoudemire dominated the Spurs big men, averaging 37 points in the Spurs five game victory. If Amare goes off, does Spurs coach Greg Popovich use Duncan on Amare, or does he try to bring a variety of help defenders? San Antonio is the best at making the other team play to their pace, but…
The Word: They seemingly have no answer for Stoudemire.

Sixth Man:
Phoenix - Leandro Barbosa (PPG 18.1 | APG 4 | SPG 1.2 | PER 18.49)
San Antonio - Manu Ginobili (PPG 16.5 | APG 3.5 | 3P% .396 | PER 24.18)
Diagnosis: Both teams understand the importance of having a dynamic game changing talent coming off the pine, and while it was Barbosa who took home the hardware as best sixth man during the regular season, it’s Ginobili who should have (he received precious few votes as voters punished him for starting half the year). In reality, Ginobili is a better player, but Barbosa so perfectly fulfils his role as spark plug off the bench that…
The Word: This is a wash.

Bench:
Phoenix – Boris Diaw, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Banks, Jalen Rose, Pat Burke
San Antonio – Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn, Fabricio Oberto, Beno Udrih
Diagnosis: The Spurs have a deep bench, and even in the playoffs, coach Greg Popovich’s rotation will remain ten deep. Robert Horry, Brent Barry, and Jacque Vaughn are savvy veterans each of whom has a ring (or six in Horry’s case), a clearly defined role, and the trust of Pop. The perception is that the Suns have a bad bench, which, they do. However, it’s a lot worse during the regular season than it is in the playoffs. At this time of year, even the deepest of teams shorten their rotation and only call the number of a few trusted vets. After Barbosa, D’Antoni has Diaw and enforcer Kurt Thomas on the pine. Diaw’s job is to create matchup problems for opposing teams and to create easy baskets for his teammates. Thomas’ job will be to make life annoying for Tim Duncan. After that the Suns bench is a little barren. Jalen Rose thought he’d be contributing by now, but he just cuddles up alongside Pat Burke, Marcus Banks, and Eric Piatkowski. So, while I don’t think Phoenix’s bench is as big a liability right now, if I had to bet on one bench having a tangible outcome on this series, it would be…
The Word: Big Shot Rob and the Spurs bench hitting the key shot.

Coach:
Phoenix - Mike D’Antoni (212-145 .594 regular season. 19-16 .543 playoffs)
San Antonio - Greg Popovich (576-276 .676. | 76-47 .618 3 NBA Championships)
Diagnosis: These are two of the five best coaches in the NBA right now and a solid case could be made for each being the best. Each is the complete embodiment of his team, the physical personification of what he wants his players to accomplish on the floor. Each has a deep, almost symbiotic connection with his star, which allows the teams to govern themselves. Popovich has the hardware, but I don’t think that should be held against D’Antoni. Basically…
The Word: This is a Wash.

X-Factor:
Phoenix - Home Court
San Antonio - Pace
Diagnosis: This series will be won based upon two factors, which team does a better job of controlling the pace, and which steals the most games on the others home floor. Both are dominant home squads (Phoenix 33-8, San Antonio 31-10), but don’t expect this series to go all Utah-Houston on us. San Antonio will take one of the first two games in Phoenix by controlling the pace and forcing the Suns to slow their attack. It will be up to the Suns to run on the Spurs in the Alamo Dome to steal back home court, because the deeper the series goes, the more home court matters. If this series only goes six, then it’s probably because the Spurs have controlled the tempo and win out at home, but if it goes seven…
The Word: Then home court matters most.

Picking a Horse:
Diagnosis: This series is the definition of a clash of styles, and will be seen as something of a referendum on whether small ball, offensive driven basketball can actually win a championship. Both squads are the embodiment of their style of basketball. While the Suns offer a plethora of offensive weapons, whose goal it is to score fast baskets every time down the floor, the Spurs bring suffocating defense, centered around the presence of a hall of fame big man. To most observers, the Suns’ style is the more engaging, but up to now, the Spurs is the more distinguished. There was a perception during the season that of the big three, the Suns could beat the Mavs, the Mavs could beat the Spurs, and the Spurs could beat the Suns. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Mavs aren’t around any longer to knock off the Spurs, so if they want to move on, they’ll have to do it themselves. Can they? Honestly, my head says no, it says that the Spurs are just too talented, too deep, and too well coached, but… my heart, well, my heart says that Steve Nash has had a look all season long, a championship look and that he’s the hungriest man on the court. In essence, that’s what this series is all about, San Antonio is the cerebral choice, while Phoenix is the heart, and…
The Word: I always follow my heart, Suns in seven.

Friday, May 04, 2007

Drowning in a Yellow Sea...

In the end 67 victories mattered not, as the NBA’s regular season MVP and his team drowned in a rabid, churning yellow sea, a buzzing, hornet-like storm they could not have anticipated and couldn't combat. For hoops fans in Oakland, the scene was reminiscent of the Detroit Tigers and their raucous celebration after breaking a decade worth of losing, last fall against New York. For Dallas, the series made 82 regular season games more than meaningless. Like Detroit last year, who poured everything into a record setting early season pace, only to lose in the second round of the playoffs to a late jelling team, Dallas seemingly expended their best through the winter. What they found in Golden State, was a swirling dervish of a team. Something without rhyme or reason, which made it incredibly difficult for their coaches to make adjustments. Conversely, they also found a team, whose opposing coach knew exactly what adjustments to make on them. Who intimately knew their offence and how to throw different defenders, from different angles at Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, it was a terrible performance by the presumed MVP, but it would be a disservice to both the Warriors and Dirk himself, to claim he choked. Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Baron Davis and the rest of the Warriors defenders (a team not particularly well known for their defense), were perfectly suited for defending Dirk. Golden State coach Don Nelson was Dirk’s coach for six plus seasons, and thus he knew where Dirk wanted to take his shots. Under his guidance, the Warriors’ defenders kept Dirk out of those spots and forced him to take difficult shots, harassed by a harem of defenders.

Of course, the league’s best player is supposed to adjust and with the exception of a 3 minute stretch at the end of game five, Dirk never adjusted. He wasn’t alone, Avery Johnson was unable to overcome the match up nightmares created by his mentor, and both he and Dallas owner Mark Cuban fell pray to the war of words with Nellie, a war which a 67 win team should never have to engage in. Michael Jordan, renowned for his killer instinct, was also known as a phenomenal trash talker, but his talk was always based around arrogance. He knew he was the best and he knew you weren’t going to beat him. This week, as Cuban claimed that Nellie was afraid to coach team’s with great expectations, Johnson suggested that the pressure was all on Golden State, and Dirk whined, they didn’t sound like a team that knew they were the best, they sounded like a team making excuses in case they lost. It was Golden State that had the swagger, led by Baron Davis, who was clearly the best player on the floor, Stephen Jackson, who’s championship experience, and “you never know when I might run into the crowd” crazy man edge were invaluable, and Nellie, they seemed relaxed yet cocksure. They were ready to fight, whether it was within the context of the game, or to protect one of their own after the whistle had blown. Loose balls landed in their hands, not because they were standing in the right spots, but because they ran them down. While Dallas feared losing, Golden State seemed sure that they could, and ultimately would, win. Basketball, more than any sport, is a game of rhythm and momentum, while Dallas struggled to find a rhythm, Golden State grabbed the momentum, which gave them a rhythm and suddenly that cylinder was eight feet wide and everything was falling, even off balance, toss it up while lunging to get a foul call, threes. When Davis hit that improbable shot, and the sea of yellow went bananas (no pun intended), the writing was clearly on the wall: after 16 years, the Golden State Warriors are going to the second round and the team with 67 wins is going fishing.

It was an incredible performance by one of pro basketball’s most exciting team’s, in front of what has to be it’s greatest fans (or at least loudest) and it left me with five thoughts:

1) If you look solely at their respective records, this might seem like the biggest upset in NBA history, but I would argue that Dallas wasn’t as good as their record (I did have them third in my ranking of playoff teams), and Golden State was better than their record, just getting healthy at the right time, putting the teachings of Nellie into full throttle, and meeting an opponent that was perfect for them. A massive upset? Yes, of course. The greatest of all time? No, I think that remains Denver over the Sonics in 1994.

2) Given that Stephen Jackson just was the primary defender involved in shutting down Dirk, while also averaging 22 points on 45% shooting, including 33 in last night’s series clinching game, it’s hard to remember that he was such a pariah three months ago that Indiana couldn’t give him away. As ESPN’s Bill Simmons has repeatedly said, a team can survive with one headcase, it’s only when a second one’s added that things become problematic. This is particularly true if they are surrounded by a coach with a strong presence (Don Nelson) and an alpha male star (Baron Davis). That was the secret of Dennis Rodman’s success in Chicago (Phil Jackson and Michael Jordan). Yet that raises a question, why weren’t more contending teams interested? I can see that Jackson would have been a disaster on a team like Charlotte, but why weren’t the Heat (Pat Riley and Shaq), the Jazz (Jerry Sloan and Carlos Boozer), or Lakers (Phil and Kobe) trying to nab him in January? Or, given his knowledge of the Spurs, and the way he just helped eliminate the Mavericks, wouldn’t the Suns have been better off if they’d packaged something with free agent disappointment, Marcus Banks, for Jackson?

3) So where does Dallas go from here? Was this just a random bad stretch in an otherwise brilliant season? Or are there fundamental problems with the team that need fixing? This will be a huge offseason for Dallas as they decide which direction they head in. Really the decision all boils down to whether Dirk is the guy who can lead his team to a title or not. If they still think he can, then they look to resign Jerry Stackhouse and perhaps find a more natural point to improve their half court distribution. If they think he isn’t that guy, then they need to see what packages team’s can put together for him. That may involve a straight up trade for another talent (Indiana’s Jermaine O’Neal) that keeps them competing, or it might involve a package of younger players (say, Boston) which sets off a rebuilding phase. Either way, the decision begins with what Mark Cuban thinks about Dirk Nowitzki.

4) Generally, I have no problem with the way the NBA maintains their seeding, but this year I wish that, like the NHL, the NBA would re-seed after the first round. In part that’s because I think that the two best teams in basketball are, for the second straight year, meeting in the second round, but also it’s just that I would love to watch Phoenix and Golden State go at it in round two. While San Antonio would be a great match up with Houston (assuming they hold serve at home in game seven Saturday night), the Suns Warriors series would stylistically be majestic. Of course, it still might happen, but, oddly enough it seems more likely that Golden State will be there than Phoenix.

5) Which brings us to the most important question of all for Warrior fans, how far can they go? The honest answer right now, assuming that Baron Davis’ hamstrings aren’t going to be an issue, is that it seems clear they can make the conference finals. Houston has two great players, each of whom is somewhat ungaurdable, but Golden State has the small bodies to make life annoying for McGrady and Nellie has frequently proven that he’s a master at taking big centers, of which Houston has an extreme one, out of games. If they face Utah, then we’ll see two offensive teams opening up, but I think the Warriors just have a few more horses, and that Davis shows young Utah point guard Deron Williams what’s the meaning of veteran savvy. Once in the conference finals, I think that the winner of San Antonio Phoenix will just be too strong for Golden State to beat in a seven game series. Of course, that’s what we all just said about Dallas…