A LONG Exercise in Futility...

Why do they do this to me, seriously, why? In the most recent* issue of Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci and the SI’s baseball writers tackled the intrinsically unanswerable topic of baseball’s all time all star team. I got the magazine out of my mail box just before midnight after a night spent looking at posed dead people, celebrating October Fest, and enjoying the flavored tobacco of Vancouver’s finest sheesha bar; it’s a long story, but a long story for another day, because it’s neither here nor there. All I wanted was my soft pillow and warm bed, but as I flipped through my mail, there it was. I mean just look at the cover. The vibrancy of each player, sitting in the dugout: Willie Mays laughing hysterically, Hank Aaron perched, bat in hand ready to strike, Ted Williams and Ty Cobb engaged in a deep conversation (probably about hitting), Mickey Mantle looking wild eyed and happy to be there. The actual article shows the other half of the dugout: Joe DiMaggio staring quiet and intense; a baby faced Roger Clemens gripping the ball, ready to blow a fastball past somebody’s chin; Yogi Berra and Mariano Rivera on the edge of the dugout, exuding confidence. It’s a great photo illustration constructed by Aaron Goodman and the short article (an extract from their soon to be released “The Baseball Book”) had my blood flowing. There was no early bed time for me. I spent hours looking at their guys, pouring over baseball prospectus, and agonizing over this greatest of baseball arguments. Honestly, how could I not. Arguing and debating the merits of a best team is exactly what this man finds to be a romantic notion. Is it irrelevant? Of course, I mean who really cares whether Warren Spahn or Randy Johnson was the more dominant lefty, honestly, who? Besides of course… me. I care, I care so much that it consumes my thoughts. It’s all I can think of. My poor girlfriend is busy talking to me about the cancerous child she spent all day working with and as she talks, all I can hear is, “yes, Aaron is the all time home run leader and yes, he deserves ample credit for breaking that record in an age when a man of color passing a white man atop baseball’s hallowed record was unfathomable to far, far too many white baseball “fans,” but he only won a single MVP award, never hit more than 47 Home runs in a single season, and never had an OPS above 1.079, which isn’t even among the top 100 single seasons ever. Great, obviously. Hall of Famer, of course, but among the five best outfielders… not quite.” Even though her lips didn’t seem to mimic the words I was hearing, and even though I’m pretty sure she stopped speaking around when I heard “MVP award” and spent the rest of the time talking closed mouth and angry, it’s what I hear. The only way to stop the madness, the only way to become a functioning human being again is to succumb to the urge, to spend twenty hours on baseball-reference, looking at the all time leaders in OBP, OPS+, who won MVPs, or Gold Gloves. Yes, it is a ridiculous effort in futility and of course there are no right answer, but here’s my own team. Oh and for the record, while there is no right answer, this is the right answer:

Sports Illustrated broke their team down with only nine pitchers, which is representative of the number that teams used to carry. I generally prefer to go with a modern 14-11 split. This is really all academic, so I’ll split the difference and go with 10 pitchers. That leaves two catchers, 7 infielders, and 6 outfielders. Of their nine pitchers, they had seven starters, which again is indicative of baseball history, where mostly anyone who pitched for you was a starter. Now the game has become quite specialized, but still a reliever has to be extra special to warrant inclusion over a starter.

Finally the biggest complication is Negro league players. Traditionally they are excluded from lists of this type because they “didn’t play against the best players,” of course that same argument could be made of Ruth, Gherig, and Cy Young. In fact if you look at how black players dominated the game from the mid fifties --- when integration was largely complete --- until the late eighties (at which point their numbers started to dwindle and Hispanic players emerged enforce), you could say that it’s the white players whose stats should be devalued for not having played against the best. Still, stats is the key word here. While I know that in 1913 a 25 year old Walter Johnson went 36-7, with a 1.14 ERA in 346 innings pitched. I know that he had a 0.78 whip and a 259 ERA+, heck I even know that he threw 3 wild pitches. Getting reliable statistics for the Negro League is far less certain. I really wanted to include Josh Gibson, but I have no clear idea of how good he was. I know he pounded home runs, perhaps more than 900, but what size were the parks, how did he field, was he adept at getting on base? Perhaps if I were more imaginative I could comfortably put him on the team, but, apparently, I’m not. So, more than being baseball’s all time all star team, this is Major League Baseball’s all time cosmic team.

C – If you exclude Josh Gibson, which in a fit of weakness I did, then the greatest hitting catcher is Mike Piazza. He leads the pack and by a good margin, of course my grandma makes a stronger throw to second. Ivan Rodriguez and Johnny Bench are the fielding bench marks and Yogi Berra set the “leadership” standard. Catching is inherently about leadership and defense, so despite his 400 home runs from the position, Piazza falls short. Like SI, I like Berra and Bench. Nobody has won more than Berra’s 10 World Series titles, and yes, obviously he played for the Yankees, but he bridged the team from the Joe DiMaggio era to the Mickey Mantle era and was a Mark Messier type leader. The stat-Jason is shouting on my one shoulder that leadership is overrated, and while I’m inclined to agree with him I think there’s a roster spot for Berra on this team. Bench is the best combination of hitting and defense, not quite as good at the one as Piazza and arguably not quite as good at the other as Rodriguez, but he won 10 gold gloves, an MVP award and had a 126 OPS+, by contrast, Piazza has a 145 OPS+, but couldn’t get a gold glove if it were running from first to second (he’d try and knock it out with a well placed throw, which would bounce as it passed the mound and roll pleasantly past the laughing gold glove). Rodriguez has won 12 gold gloves, but with a 113 OPS+.

Looking Forward: Joe Mauer – He really could be the starting catcher on this team in fifteen years, he’s that good.

1B – Strong sluggers abound at the position, but nobody has come close to the standard that Lou Gehrig set over 60 years ago. Lost in the glorification of Babe Ruth was how great Gherig really was. His story was always tied to Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and his famous retirement address, but the recent reclamation of old stats has brought Gehrig to the forefront again, for more than his disease, for his greatness.

Obviously you need a slugger for the bench and Jimmie Foxx is the best slugger not to be starting. Frank Thomas was very good, as was Mark McGuire, but both lost a number of years to injuries and neither had a season as great as Foxx’s in 1932 when he posted a .364, .469, .749 batting line.

Looking Forward: Albert Pujols – I’m not certain that Phat Al will post numbers as dominant as Gehrig’s, but another five years at his current level and he’ll replace Foxx.

2B – Who do you choose? Jackie Robinson not only broke the color barrier, but won the 1949 MVP. Joe Morgan won two MVP’s, during the 1970’s; Roberto Alomar set the gold standard for fielding the position; Craig Biggio was a better hitter than most realize; and Eddie Collins had a greater cumulative career than any other second baseman and thus leads the group with 574 win shares. Still I think the standard for two-baggers was set in the twenties by Rogers Hornsby. It’s said that Hornsby’s plate coverage was so good he could hit anything, even ‘get a single on a throw to third. He struck the ball so hard he could hit it through a car wash, not even get it wet.’ I think we can all agree that Joe Morgan was the better athlete and played when the talent in the game was far superior, but Morgan never dominated the National League the way Hornsby did. He retired young, he was (supposedly) surly, but for 14 years he WAS the National League. From 1920 to 1925 Hornsby led the NL in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. In each individual season. Nobody else has *ever* done that. For playing at such a high standard during the 70’s (possibly baseball’s most underrated era) Morgan makes the team for the bench.

Looking Forward: Nobody.

SS – I’m not sure if this is an indication of what I think of Honus Wagner as much as it is an indication of what I think about Bill James, who puts Wagner’s win shares at a mind boggling 655. Only Ruth, Ty Cobb, and that inflatable head from San Francisco have more. After him the position was dominated by slick fielding, no hitting glove men like Phil Rizzuto. Then came Cal Ripken and his big 6’5” frame. While Cal was setting the consecutive games record, he also showed teams (and young players) that shortstops can be proficient with the bat as well as the glove. Which brings us to Alex Rodriguez. He was a gold glover at short and close to at third (forgetting those weird three weeks this summer), he can hit for average, and --- oh yeah --- he has over 450 home runs in his first 10 years. The problem is that he only played 8 years at short before joining the Yankees. So I heed Bill’s advice and Wagner’s my man, although ARod is an obvious inclusion on the team.

Looking Forward: If Rodriguez leaves NY and moves back to short for another three years he could replace Wagner as the starter, but otherwise nobody is close to consideration for a spot.

3B – Brooks Robinson was the greatest fielding third baseman ever, Eddie Mathews hit 512 home runs, and George Brett was a great, great player, but nobody combined the glove at third with the bat as well as Mike Schmidt. He set the bar high, with 10 gold gloves, 548 home runs, and 467 career win shares.

Looking Forward: David Wright – I admit that perhaps I have an exaggerated man crush on Wright, but he’s better than Ryan Zimmerman, and while not quite the hitter of Miguel Cabrera, is a far better fielder. Probably never Schmidt’s equal, but great all the same.

OF – It’s crowded out there in the Cosmic outfield, any way you look at things, one of the game’s seminal players is going to be left off; is it DiMaggio, Cobb, or Aaron. And then there’s the elephant in the closet: Barry Bonds and his outrageous numbers from 2001-2004. Look lets not get silly here, Bonds’ four year run is the best EVER. It’s not even really close. In Ruth’s best four year stretch, he put up RC/27 of 18.30, 17.82, 11.10, 17.10. Bonds’ four year numbers: 17.18, 19.17, 15.53, and 20.11. That 20.11 came in 2004, when Bonds had an unreal .609 OBP. That means three of every five times he came to the plate he ended up on base. Yet there is absolutely no reasonable doubt that those four years were aided by steroids. Was Bonds the only one? No, obviously not and despite their steroid use, nobody else came close to replicating those numbers. In part that’s because Bonds was so good before using the ‘roids. Good enough to have retired with 500 stolen bases and over 500 home runs (probably even over 650), but he almost certainly wouldn’t have passed Ruth let alone challenging Aaron. He was the best player in baseball for most of the nineties and might have retired as one of the all time unquestioned greats. Unfortunately that wasn’t enough for him, he cheated and while baseball might not have consequences for that, this team does. It’s harsh, but it’s my cosmic team and there are plenty of insanely good players without the Elephant.

With that out of the way, lets focus on the players who are eligible, beginning with the locks. Babe Ruth is a larger than life icon and for good reason. Nobody hit home runs before Ruth (the career leader Ruth passed was, Roger Conor with 138), he created the home run and his numbers (12.93 RC/27, 207 OPS+, and 234.2 WARP3) reflect that. Only Ted Williams put up anything close to those numbers, which makes him another lock. Actually, if you figure that Williams basically lost five seasons to war, it’s not unreasonable that he might have been the best hitter ever. While those two set the standard with the bat, neither were particularly fleet fielders, so somebody between them in center becomes essential. And if you are looking for baseball’s best fielder you have to begin with Willie Mays. Mays won 12 gold gloves, smacked 660 home runs, and easily earns the centerfield spot. The bench spot begins with Mantle, who was a better hitter than Mays although not quite the glove man. Mantle’s a switch hitter with a 172 career OPS+, so he provides balance to the team with both his glove and bat. Ty Cobb is also a lock. Among outfielders his OPS+ of 167 trails only those four, the Elephant in the closet, Dan Brouthers and Joe Jackson. Since we’re ignoring the Elephant lets look at the other two, Brothers played in the 1800s, his career ending in 1896 and Jackson, well Shoeless Joe trails Cobb by 2417 hits, 417 doubles, 1152 RBI, which is a very good career in itself. Yes, Jackson would have posted better numbers had he not been suspended for life following the Black Sox scandal, and if you believe Field of Dreams then he wasn’t really at fault for that, but… Fault or not, he lost a decade from his career and I can’t just make that up. As a final endorsement of Cobb, lets look at where he stands for a few important statistical points: Career batting average – 1st (.366), On Base Percentage – 9th (.433), Runs – 2nd (2246), Hits – 2 (4189), Total Bases – 4th (5854), Doubles – 4th (724), Triples – 2nd (295), Runs batted in – 6th (1937), Stolen bases – 4th (892). Damn, that’s domination across the board. They even say that Cobb was ‘so fast he could turn off the lights and be in bed before it got dark.’ You know what that means, assuming that my team is going to be playing in the modern cosmic AL (i.e., with the lumbering Ruth DHing) then Cobb will be my starting right fielder and leadoff hitter. That leaves one spot and Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio, and Stan Musial to choose from. Aaron has the best career numbers, DiMaggio was the biggest icon, but Stan the Man had the best per season averages (159 OPS +, 9.00 RC/27, .332 EQA). So logically Stan Musial should be the guy. But I hate logic, it always tells me things I don’t want to know, so here’s the deal. Bonds’ numbers are stupid, Paris Hilton stupid. Asshole? Yes. Top heavy? Uhm yeah. But how the heck am I supposed to look the other way when the man posted a .609 OBP in 2004? Seriously, who the hell needs scruples, when you have bonds’ .863 slugging percentage coming off the bench. Yeah, maybe you don’t like him, I don’t really like him either, but “Herman, why does my Cosmic team play the game? They play the game to WIN.” Bonds is in.

Looking Forward: Grady Sizemore – probably doesn’t become that great, but he’s a phenomenal young player.

Pitchers – Considering I just dropped slightly over 1,000 words on six outfield spots, you might be asking yourself how the hell many you’re going to have to wade through to know the nine pitchers on this team. And lets be honest for a second here, nobody but my most ardent fan is even still reading this thing (thanks Mom!), so there’s really no reason to be swanky, or drop some phat wit on your asses, which of course is good because I couldn’t even if I wanted to. So lets just drop some names like I’m a Hollywood gossip columnist. How’s Roger Clemens and his seven Cy Youngs, 144 career ERA+, 4604 strikeouts, and 348 wins. What about Walter Johnson, with his 2.17 ERA, 417 wins, and 1.06 WHIP. Want some more? What about Pedro Martinez with his .691 career winning percentage and insane 160 ERA+ . That’s twelve points higher than baseball’s next highest, but Lefty Grove, with his 148 OPS+ and his 1931 season (31-4, 2.04 ERA) is very deserving. Want more names? How about the greatest left hander of all time: Randy Johnson, he of the five Cy Youngs and four other top three finishes (not to mention, 4500 strike outs and 138 ERA+). Speaking about Cy Youngs, then what about Greg Maddux and his four straight. You know, the years where he posted ERAs of 2.18, 2.36, 1.56, 1.63. And if we’re talking about four year runs, then we have to discuss Sandy Koufax and his 1.88, 1.74, 2.04, and 1.73 run which ended with his early retirement (is it better to die young, or to fade away?). Who are we missing? Well, we keep talking about his award, so how about Cy Young? Sure, his best years were before the turn of the century, but it’s hard to argue with those 511 wins. The one record in sports that truly stands as unbreakable. While I’ve tended to ignore relievers, because they are largely a modern phenomenon, we need to represent one and really, is there anybody besides Mariano Rivera? I mean, I like Dennis Eckersely, but he deosn’t have a career post season record of 8-1, with 34 saves in 70 appearances and a 0.80 ERA. Sure, Trevor Hoffman just broke the all time save record, but Mariano is only 69 back. He’s the best reliever ever, an integral part of the most recent Yankee dynasty and an obvious choice. That leaves one spot (and hey, lets give some dap for getting here in under 500 words), so who to pick? There are a lot of great names: Warren Spahn, Pete Alexander, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, but really there is only Christy Mathewson and Bob Gibson. Arguments could be made for either one, but I’m going with Gibson, because of his postseason work. He played in three World Series and in each one the series went seven games, with Gibson pitching complete games in game 1, game 4, and game 7. Three post season series, three games apiece, nine complete games. That he had a 7-2 record with a 1.89 ERA is only gravy.

Looking Forward: Obviously this was the year for young pitchers, but all those rookies have a long way to go before they join this conversation. Johan Santana however just won his second Cy Young, should have won last year (but voters are stupid about wins), has an ERA+ of 144 and a career winning percentage of .716; both of which rank in the top ten. All he needs is health, of course that’s been said of a lot of guys who then watched their careers end early.

So, that’s the team, which means all that’s missing is the batting order. (batting stance and position listed next to them):

1) T. Cobb, lf, lefty.
2) R. Hornsby, 2B, righty.
3) T. Williams, rf, l.
4) B. Ruth, dh, l.
5) W. Mays, cf, r.
6) L. Gherig, 1b, l.
7) M. Schmidt, 3b, r.
8) Y. Berra, c, l.
9) H. Wagner, ss, r.

* It should be noted that the first 3,000 words of this were written over a month ago, but then my computer went on the fritz and it took until now for me to finish the great, wordy, beast.

Frank Thomas and Other Baseball News

He’s old, his body is incredibly creaky, but… Frank Thomas was one of the ten best hitters in the American League last year. He hit 39 home runs, drove in 119 runs and had an RC/27 of 7.22. If he plays, Thomas will hit. With the new two year contract the Jays have reportedly given him, Thomas will pass 500 home runs in a Blue Jay uniform and he will provide the team with a dominant slugging DH. 23 million is a lot of money for a player with Thomas’ body, but in their division (with the two idiots at the top), the Jays have to take chances. If Thomas gives them 250 games over two years, it will have been the right move.

The Jays still have a huge hole at catcher and shortstop, and they lack depth at the back end of the rotation. They *might* have futures in the league, but Casey Jansen, Shaun Marcum, and Dustin McGowan aren’t going to help the Jays pass the Yanks and Sox. The market has borne out and it seems that the price is only rising for pitching (suddenly, the 55 million 5 year deal for A.J. Burnett doesn’t look so terrible). J.P. Ricciardi is no doubt searching out the bargains where he can although they are proving harder to find as teams desperately search for options. Two names stand out as solid low money, slight risk, bug upside options: Randy Wolff and Vincente Padilla. Wolff is a year removed from Tommy John surgery and should improve upon his numbers of last year. More importantly, he’s very tough on lefties, which plays well for a Jays team which has to pitch against: David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Bobby Abreu. Padilla has temperament issues and a known alcohol problem, but despite his demons he had reasonable success pitching in the sandbox that is Ameriquest Park. Giving him a multi year deal would be a mistake, but an incentive laden one year deal could give the Jays a solid fifth pitcher. A rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, Wolff, and Padilla would certainly be enough to complement the Jays beefy offence.

Finally, there are the Vernon Wells negotiations, which seem to be at the heart of every move the Jays make this offseason. If the writing seems to be on the wall and Ricciardi knows that Wells wont be coming back, do they trade him or do they look to succeed this year and worry about his leaving next offseason? Signing Thomas would seem to be indicative of their intent to compete this year, a decision which certainly includes Wells. Still, the best possibility for filling that hole at short and in the rotation might be finding a new home for Vernon. Anaheim’s Ervin Santana and Brandon Wood seems about right for a three time Gold Glove winning centerfielder with 30 plus home run power.

Around the Horn:

- The 51 million the Sox spent for the negotiating rights to Daisuke Matsusaka seems exorbitant --- and it is --- but the Sox will make most of that money back in merchandising rights alone. Getting a toe hold into the Asian market, both for young Asian players and for the almighty dollar. Signing Matsusaka will still cots the Sox another 50 plus million, but insiders believe that he will come in and be one of the top ten pitchers in baseball, so between the market emergence, getting a toe hold in the burgeoning Asian market, and having a top 10 pitcher, it’s money well spent. After two years of watching their staff fall apart, the Sox go into the 2007 with a starting four of Curt Schilling, Matsusaka, Josh Beckett, and Jonathan Papelbon the Sox rotation looks Tiger strong. Given that Sox seem to be the leaders in the clubhouse for Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew, they might also be the leaders in the Hot Stove Championship.

- The Cubs spent a lot of money last week ensuring that Lou Piniella would have a veteran infield. Re-signing Aramis Ramirez was the right choice and so was giving Mark DeRosa a three year, 13 million deal. I was wary of any team that spent big on DeRosa after his career year, but 13 million for three years means that even if the utility man/second baseman recedes to his career norms the Cubs haven’t bankrupted themselves.

- Detroit may regret giving away Humberto Sanchez for two years of the petulant Gary Sheffield, but this is one of those proverbial deals which should help both teams. Sheffield gives the Tigers a middle of the order force who understands working the strike zone, and Sanchez gives the Yankees a young pitcher to help replace Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson when they finally kick their feet up.

- There are two reasons I love Cleveland’s acquisition of second baseman Josh Barfield for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and pitcher Andrew Brown. First: it was a great deal, Brown is a low level pitching prospect who might one day provide some innings from the pen, and while Kouzmanoff can hit, he’s blocked in Cleveland by Andy Marte and doesn’t provide the total package of Barfield. Second: the acquisition of the second baseman, means that Cleveland will stay clear of Ronnie Belliard who looked so fat by seasons end, that he was fielding second from ten feet out in right field.

- I was surprised that Kerry Wood re-signed with the Cubs, he’s obviously a guy trying to recapture he’s greatness and going somewhere new, for a fresh start would have seemed the obvious option. Plus, why would the Cubs want to continue the Wood- Mark Prior, “if they’re healthy…” era. They haven’t been healthy since 2003 and surprise, surprise the Cubs haven’t made the playoffs since then.

Regrets...

Achanceyougottatake Sports has a confession: I missed my most ardent Hoops supporter, my Cullen surfing, favorite Cuz’s (which I can say, because he’s my only cousin who actually reads the blog) wedding. I had a valid excuse (although not a valid excuse for not sending along my best wishes and a marriage confirming Tupence), but still I’ve regretted it every day since June. Seriously, every day. I feel terrible. I think about missing out on his wedding with a startling regularity. Not being there on his day was terrible and I sincerely regret having to move that weekend. So, in honor of Big Cuz and the wedding I missed, lets take a look at the NBA’s thirty teams and something each of them regrets. It might not be a congratulatory Tupence, but it’s something.

Boston Celtics – The Celtics should be regretting sending the 7th pick to Portland for Sebastion Telfair (with Raef LaFrentz and Theo Ratliff also switching postal codes). Two years ago pundits killed the Trailblazers for reaching up to 13th to take Telfair and since then he’s done just enough to lose his place as Portland’s PG of the future. So, logically, giving up a HIGHER pick for him makes sense.

New Jersey Nets – The Nets have a solid team, but they surely regret not finding a solid low post presence to provide some rebounding and balance to their attack.

New York Knicks – How many words is this supposed to be? Let me see, the Knicks regret the Stephon Marbury trade, they regret the Eddy Curry trade, the Jalen Rose trade, the Steve Francis trade, the Malik Rose trade, the Jamal Crawford signing, picking Renaldo Blackman 20th, the Jered Jeffries signing, and oh yeah that slim hard worker Jerome James and his contract. Surely, we could just sum this all up into two words: Isaiah and… ahhh… uhmm… Thomas.

Philadelphia 76ers – It might be the Samuel Dalembert deal, but given how gimpy he’s been so far this year, I think the Sixers really regret the Chris Webber deal.

Toronto Raptors – The Raptors shouldn’t regret trading Charlie Villaneuva to the Bucks, but they should regret only getting TJ Ford in return. Given Ford’s anemic shooting, injury history and the NBA’s never trade BIG for small motto, this was a bad deal from its inception. At least the Raptors needed some draft picks.

Chicago Bulls – I’d think that after last night’s defeat the Bulls lack of a pure scorer is something they regret. Ben Wallace was a good recruit, but 16 million for somebody who doesn’t put the ball through the hoop… ouch.

Cleveland Cavaliers – I’d think the Cavs regret taking that LeBron James kid first in 2003 over Darko Millic. Big regret, huge. I might be kidding about this one…

Detroit Pistons – The Pistons should be regretting replacing Wallace with Nazr Mohammed. Terrible decision, like the Republicans replacing George W. with Jed.

Indiana Pacers – I think that the Pacers will ultimately regret not blowing this team up. It seems to me that they’re destined to bob around 6th, which is disappointing two years after looking like basketball’s best team.

Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks are regretting the fact that they live in Milwaukee and really, who can blame them, for while Milwaukee was once the world’s foremost beer producer, they now only have Miller… Ughhh…

Atlanta Hawks – Well given the way Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw have started this season, it could be argued that the Hawks are no longer regretting their acquisition of Johnson (although next June they’ll regret including this years pick), but they still are regretting passing on Chris Paul with the 2nd pick in 2004’s draft.

Charlotte Bobcats – I think the ‘Cats must regret not swapping the 5th and 13th picks (or Raymond Felton and Sean May) on draft night two years ago for Paul. Yes, they’re both UNC kids, but Paul’s also from North Carolina and, well, he might already be the NBA’s best point guard.

Miami Heat – They spent all summer celebrating Miami’s first NBA championship, so I cannot imagine they’re regretting much right now, but by next May they might be regretting bringing back the same (read: old) team.

Orlando Magic – Since his ass is still rotting in Spain, I’d have to think the Magic are regretting taking Fran Vazquez in 2005, especially with Hermione’s big brother Danny still on the board.

Washington Wizards – I think Washington is regretting changing their name from the fear inducing Bullets to that wimpy Wizards, because nobody actually reads anything about Wizards, or their bushy haired friends.

Denver Nuggets – Kenyon Martin. KenYon MarTin. KENYON MARTIN. That’s a lot of money for a player whose knee is shot.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Like the Knicks, there’s a lot on the T-Wolves roster for them to regret and it could all be tossed on the shoulders of Kevin McHale, but I’m going to say that the Wolves will regret not trading Kevin Garnett to the Bulls.

Portland Trailblazers – Well, pick your poison. Do they regret the Theo Ratliff deal (and yes, they traded him, but in return they had to bring in Raef LaFrentz), or the Zach Randolph deal? Ratliff’s gone, Randolph’s playing like Moses Malone, so lets just go with not trading Darius Miles, he of the broken knee and 34 million bucks remaining, to the Knicks last year for Antonio Davis’ expiring contract.

Seattle Supersonics – They probably regret not teaching defense in training camp. Or maybe they regret taking a basketball mad city and turning it into a candidate for relocation. Although who can blame ownership, I mean, who the heck needs lattes when you have Cowboys. Lattes are just milky coffee, but Cowboys… they have hats, ropes, pointy boots, horses, and cattle prods. Come on, you know you’d rather have a cattle prod than a latte.

Utah Jazz – Well, Deron Williams is playing pretty well, but still, we know that if they answered honestly, Jerry Sloan and Jazz GM Kevin O’Connor regret not taking Chris Paul instead. I know what you’re thinking, I’m slurping up so much to Chris Paul that you think I might have a bigger man crush on him than Sasha Baron Cohen, well that’s just crazy. There’s nobody I “heart” more than Borat… No, serisously the reason Paul keeps coming up is because the NBA’s new rules benefit teams with a great point guard and Paul is the best to come along in a decade. He should have been the first pick in that draft, at worst second after Bogut. Instead he went fourth and many other teams passed up the opportunity to trade up for him. The Jazz, 41-41 probably make the playoffs last year with Paul instead of Williams.

Golden State Warriors – Well, they might regret being named Golden State, which surely limits their marketability. Or perhaps they regret not making the playoffs while Big Cuz still lived in their city, but honestly when it comes to the Warriors is there any other answer than Mike Dunleavy?

L.A. Clippers – Things are looking pretty rosy in Clipperdom these days, so it’s hard to find things that they regret, but if forced to choose, I’d think they will regret the deal they gave to Tim Thomas. That’s a lot of money for a guy who’s never played hard and only lived up to his potential for one postseason.

L.A. Lakers - With the emergence of Andrew Bynum (and really, even without it), the Lakers should be regretting the deal that sent Caron Butler to Washington for Kwame Brown. The Lakers then overpaid Brown, compounding the mistake.

Phoenix Suns – Everybody’s getting a little antsy about their 1-5 start, but that doesn’t really bother me. What does bother me, is the Suns trading away the 21st pick in the draft and then instead signing Marcus Banks. They gave Banks 20 million for four years, when they could have drafted Rajon Rondo and paid him 6.5 million for four years. That’s a huge difference for a team that’s stuck tight up against the luxury tax. They also might regret adding Jalen Rose, who replicates skills they already have and provides nothing of what they need (i.e.: defense).

Sacramento Kings – The Kings are regretting that they aren’t already in their owners’ hometown: Las Vegas, where they could be mowing down on $1.00 steaks, watching world class showgirls, and tossing the occasional quarter in the occasional slot.

Dallas Mavericks – Well, I don’t know. Given his two MVP awards, they might be regretting letting Nash walk, of course they went to the finals last year, so perhaps not.

Houston Rockets – Long term the Rockets might regret trading Rudy Gay for Shane Battier. Of course, if Gay plays with the same passion in the pros that he played with at UConn, then they’ll just regret Jeff Van Gundy stagnating their offence.

Memphis Grizzlies – At this point, I’d think the grizzlies might be regretting letting star forward Pau Gasol play in the World Championships. Perhaps, just maybe.

New Orleans Hornets – Everything looks rosy when you’re off to a 4-1 start and the Hornets are of course the team that made the CORRECT decision in drafting Chris Paul, but… they did give Peja Stojakovic a LOT of money and despite their hot start, Peja has SUCKED.

San Antonio Spurs – I think they probably regret not devising a better final shot in their overtime game 7 loss to the Mavericks last Spring, especially after watching the finals and knowing that they could have beaten Miami. Oh well, there’s always this year.

Which I guess is the only thing you can do with regrets. Think about them, learn from them, and make sure you don’t make the same mistake in the future. So, the next time Big Cuz and his new Bride, Ms. Big Cuz, decide to celebrate their love in front of friends and family, I’ll be there tail between my legs and Tupence in hand.

Hoop Hoop, Dunk Dunk...

It’s a new NBA season, we’ve got a new leather friendly ball; we’ve got a new Champion; we’ve got Isaiah back on the bench, and Larry Brown nowhere to be seen. We’ve got Michael as the boss in Charlotte, Don Nelson as the mastermind in Golden State, and Ben Wallace as the reinforcements in Chicago. Just as defense was in vogue during the late nineties, offence is sprinting down the floor. You have Amare returning in Phoenix, a healthy Yao and T-Mac in Houston, and Vince Carter in a contract year. Kobe Bryant has spent all summer thinking about Shaq winning a championship without him, and Tim Duncan finally spent a summer with his feet up. Detroit has to show it can compete without the ‘Fro, and Memphis has to show they can stay competitive until Pau Gasol comes back. Bryan Colangelo has assembled a lot of pieces in Toronto, but can they show the offensive savvy of his Phoenix teams? And even if they do, can they actually stop anyone on the other end? Oh yeah, if all that’s not enough for you, we might also have those three precocious, fresh out of diapers superstars, you know the ones who just appeared on SI’s NBA preview issue, and are going to be featured on ESPN and TNT so often that by the end of the year you’ll have spent more time with LeBron, Carmelo, and Wade than you’ll have with your spouse. And if all of that isn’t enough to tickle your NBA fancy, it’s been at almost eight months since Ron Artest sabotaged his own team, so there’s bound to be some fun in Sacramento! As the old folks like to say, the NBA… it’s FAN-tastic! Here’s how it plays out.

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams:

1) Cleveland Cavaliers (59-23) – LeBron takes another big step forward and bounce back years from Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones provides some shooters to space the floor. The King wins his first central division crown.

2) Miami Heat (54-28) – The Heat will be good, because they have Dwayne Wade on the floor and Pat Riley on the bench, but Shaq, Alonzo, and Payton, are all closer to 40 and Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Jason Williams are each on the wrong side of 30.

3) Chicago Bulls (51-31) – A ten game improvement is not totally the result of Ben Wallace, Kirk Heinrich benefits from his time with team USA and Ben Gordon finally realizes that consistency is more important than highlight real fourth quarter comebacks.

4) New Jersey Nets (50-32) – a number of publications have the Nets pegged into the conferences number two hole, but I don’t see it. The lack of balance in their attack combined with the lack of a post defender and rebounder mean a season similar to last year. An injury to Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson will see them closer to .500.

5) Detroit Pistons (50-32) – Even if they had re-signed Wallace, the Pistons would have receded. They were more like the second half team that went 27-13 than the first half team that went 37-5 a fact which will only be exacerbated by replacing Wallace with Nazr Mohammed.

6) Indiana Pacers (45-37) – The Pacers are trying to escape the star crossed Ron Artest era and while I might have blown things up and started over, they kept the status quo but with Al Harrington subbed in for Peja Stojakovic. They’re brittle, but if stalwart coach Rick Carlisle lets them run, they’ll win some games.

7) Washington Wizards (44-38) – Like the Nets, the Wizards have way too much on the outside and not enough on the inside, still Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offence perfectly suits their big three: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler.

8) Orlando Magic (43-39) – They’ve had shaky drafts the past two years (Fran Vazquez and J.J. Reddick), but the continued development of Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Darko Milicic mean that the Magic are on the up.

The Rest:

9) Milwaukee Bucks (42-40) – Bucks are good, but their shallow point guard situation holds them back.

10) Toronto Raptors (39-43) – Bryan Colangelo made a lot of moves, not quite enough to get them in the playoffs, but enough for their best season since ’02.

11) Boston Celtics (38-44) – Paul Pierce had his best season ever last year, and they won 33 games; Danny Ainge has turned the team over to the babies and they need to grow.

12) Philadelphia 76ers (37-45) – This team is so expensive and misconstrued, that it’s going to be a long, painful decline.

13) New York Knicks (35-47) – Normally Larry Brown is worth ten extra wins to a team just for agreeing to coach, in the Knicks’ case he’s worth that just by leaving.

14) Charlotte Bobcats (35-47) – Raymond Felton promised the playoffs, which isn’t going to happen, but if everyone’s healthy the ‘Cats will be better.

15) Atlanta Hawks ( 30-52) – The Hawks could have drafted Chris Paul and Brandon Roy, but instead they took Marvin and Sheldon Williams. There’s always next year.

Western Conference Playoff Teams;

1) San Antonio Spurs (63-19) – Tim Duncan finally had a whole summer to rest, Tony Parker’s a year older, and Manu Ginobili’s well, Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are the model of consistency and will again pace the Western Conference.

2) Dallas Mavericks (62-20) – The Mavs will recover from their horrific Finals experience by beating teams all season, but everyone knows that Dallas’ season starts in June. Anything other than championship redemption will be a disappointment.
3) Phoenix Suns (59-23) – The best thing for Phoenix, and for Amare himself, would be Stoudemire accepting a limited sixth man role that helps Phoenix exploit mismatches and keeps Stoudemire from re-injuring his knee.

4) Utah Jazz (47-35) – Health is the only thing keeping the Jazz from getting back to the playoffs. If they can get 75 games from Andre Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer, then the Jazz will be singing all the way to the Northwest Crown.

5) Los Angeles Clippers (50-32) – For the second year in a row, the Clippers remain LA best team. The continued development of point guard Shaun Livingston and Elton Brand’s broad shoulders keep the fun in Clipperdom.

6) Houston Rockets (49-33) – If McGrady plays over 70 games then the Rockets could be even better than this, but the key to their season is Yao. China’s largest import is now the NBA’s best center, a point he’ll emphasize with a 25-11 season.

7) Denver Nuggets (46-35) – The Nuggets made a huge mistake by investing so much money in Nene and neither Kenyon Martin nor Marcus Camby are reliable, but the Nuggets will improve as Carmelo Anthony improves.

8) Los Angeles Lakers (45-36) – In general I wouldn’t bet against Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson, but this team has limited and mismatched parts. They overpaid Vladimir Radmanovic and unless Andrew Bynum develops quickly the Lakers will be fighting for the playoffs.

The Rest:

9) New Orleans Hornets (44-37) – Chris Paul is so good that the Hornets could earn that eighth playoff spot.

10) Golden State (42-40) – Like Larry Brown and Phil Jackson, Don Nelson is worth ten wins to his team, unfortunately in the West that’s not enough.

11) Sacramento Kings (38-44) – The Kings have the talent to finish as high as sixth, but after years of backing Ron Artest, I’ve given up. He’s a nutter, plain and simple.

12) Minnesota Timberwolves (36-46) – They should have traded Kevin Garnett, instead they handed Mike James the same type of contract that’s hamstrung them thus far.

13) Seattle Supersonics (33-49) – They seem stuck, waiting to move or waiting to stay. Either way, they have no inside presence and Ray Allen’s no spring chicken.

14) Memphis Grizzlies (32-50) – Long term, Pao’s injury could help the franchise as this year’s draft is deep and could bring that second all star Jerry West desperately needs.

15) Portland Trailblazers (25-57) – Until they trade pariahs Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, the Blazers rebuilding will remain stunted.

Playoffs:

Cleveland takes another step in the LeBron era, beating Detroit in the conference semi’s, but fall in the Eastern finals they fall to Chicago who just nick Riley’s tired Heat. The Bulls ferocious defense is put to the test in the Finals where Amare Stoudemire finally comes alive for Phoenix. They mercifully end Dallas’s season and then sneak past the Spurs in a cracker of a series. With Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw, and Marcus Banks the Suns just have too many weapons for the Bulls.

Awards:

1st Team All League: 2nd Team All League: 3rd Team All League:
g – Steve Nash g – Kobe Bryant g – Chris Paul
g – Dwayne Wade g – Vince Carter g – Gilbert Arenas
f – LeBron James f – Tim Duncan f – Kevin Garnett
f – Dirk Nowitzki f – Elton Brand f – Shawn Marion
c – Yao Ming c – Shaquille O’Neal c – Dwight Howard

Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Duncan, Spurs – As Duncan leaves more and more of the offensive weight to Parker and Ginobili he finally gets recognized as the NBA’s top defender.

Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan, Jazz – The voters love guys who go from lottery team to playoff team, which explains why the incomparable Jerry Sloan has yet to be recognized.

Rookie of the Year: Adam Morrison, Bobcats – the Wispy Moustached one has had a rough preseason, but sixth months from now he’ll be the NBA’s top rook.

Sixth Man of the Year:

Most Improved Player: Darko Milicic, Magic – In recent seasons, this award has gone to talented youngsters who’ve broken out, rather than guys who’ve tangibly improved. Darko splits the difference.

MVP: LeBron James, Cavaliers – LeBron is the NBA’s chosen one, and he wins his first of five MVPs for taking Cleveland to the top of the Eastern conference.