He's Aloof, Can't Hit in the Clutch, makes 25 million, and oh Yeah, These Teams Want Him...

After another disappointing playoff series, the trade-ARod clamor is clogging up chat rooms like the Triple Pork Egg Benny’s (with maple syrup) I ate for breakfast this morning. Now, Brian Cashman, the Yankees GM, has attempted to quell those rumors, but really his pleas that ARod isn’t going anywhere are falling on deaf ears. Which of course is a good thing, given that playing around with possible superstar trades is the kind of thing someone in my position finds particularly enjoyable.

Lets begin by acknowledging that all this anti ARod nonsense is, well… nonsense. We are talking about a player who has hit 464 home runs in his first ten years in baseball. He fields two positions extremely well (despite a mid season bout of the WTFs), gets on base, and drives in runs. Sure, he’s overpaid, perhaps he’s not the most cuddly of players, and his postseason record leaves something to be desired, but those concerns are all red herrings. Firstly, he’s no longer really overpaid, not for the Yankees and not for anybody looking to acquire him. The Texas Rangers are so kindly paying roughly 1 million. The Yankees, or whatever team picks up his deal, will only owe ARod 64 million for the next four years. Sure it’s not chump change, but considering that Alfonso Soriano just turned down a 75 million five year deal and that Carlos “a year from now I’ll be DHing” Lee is looking for four years at 65+, getting an excellent fielder who will break 600 home runs in your uniform isn’t a bad idea.

Second, his postseason stats aren’t terrible (.280, .362, .485) and more importantly it’s an incredibly small sample size. The same was once said of Ted Williams, Mike Schmidt, and Barry Bonds. That’s because each of them went through a stretch like ARod’s 11-60 streak in his past three playoff series. It’s not indicative of him as a player, it’s a cold streak. Players go through hot streaks and cold streaks. It sounds pedantic and it is, but you cannot judge anything over 16 games. Nothing. And the clubhouse thing, I mean really, what are we eight years old here? Baseball history is full of sordid players who were asses. Guys far worse than ARod, it doesn’t matter. They aren’t literally sitting in trenches going to war together, they’re figuratively sitting in trenches going to war together. There’s a difference. Really, I swear. ARod being aloof isn’t going to affect whether his second baseman makes the turn and throw on a double play, and it’s not going to stop the runner rounding third from sprinting home on an ARod hit. Most importantly it’s not going to make the starting pitcher any better or any worse. ARod’s abilities on the other hand, will help the starting pitcher both in the field, and by putting runs on the board. There’s a famous quote in baseball, “momentum’s only as strong as the next day's starting pitcher.” Well the same thing can be said of chemistry. Every single World Series winner had good chemistry, but not because they were all chummy and had some gritty glue guys holding them together in the clubhouse, because they won. All that other stuff is just garbage perpetuated by a New York media which feeds a rabid, frothing readership with a heightened sense of baseball entitlement.

Other teams know that having ARod in the lineup, hitting third or fourth, not sixth or eighth, improves their team despite all this ridiculous nonsense (in fairness, Cashman seems to know this too). ARod has said that he wants to remain a Yankee and that he’ll never agree to a trade, but most insiders believe that there is a little lip service involved in this and that if the right situation were to arise, ARod would see that leaving NY is exactly what he needs to bring the gleam back to his career. Still, even if ARod is available, not everyone will have a shot at him. He’s not going to consent to a lost cause or tiny small market team, so you wont see him going to: the Royals, Reds, Rockies, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals, or Devil Rays. Nor is he likely to return to either of his previous homes, so Seattle and Texas are both out. Even if ARod wanted to go there and a good deal were on the board, you know that the Yankees would never, ever agree to send him to Boston. For that matter they likely wouldn’t want to face him 19 times a year in an Orioles or Jays uniform (pity…). And, despite his reasonable remaining contract, ARod is still too expensive for the tight budgets in Oakland, Minnesota, and Cleveland (which is a shame for the Yankees, as all three could offer great deals). Finally, despite his prowess, these four teams have all stars already at both short and third, so don’t expect him to pack for Florida, Atlanta, Arizona (well, not exactly all stars yet, but just be patient), or the Mets. That still leaves 10 teams who would be chomping at the bit to get ARod. Now, if the Yanks are moving him, then the reason is that they’re looking for pitching. So in each deal a starter must be acquired as the primary piece of the return package. They also need youth at catcher, a first baseman, and somebody to replace Rodriguez at third. Every team has their own untouchable player and most of the time those are aces. So, ARod isn’t going to bring Chris Carpenter in return from the Cards, nor will he garner Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs, or Roy Oswalt from the Astros, but outside of those three and perhaps another ace or two, ARod could and should warrant a top flight pitcher. Here are the ten teams and the package that I think the Yankees could reasonably ask for, from the least likely, to the most.

Cardinals Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes.
Analysis: A great location for ARod to end up, he’d bump David Eckstein to second and play beside Scott Rolen. Fans in St Louis are blindly loyal to Cardinal players and guys always love the organization. The problem is that outside of the untouchables (Carpenter and Albert Pujols), the Cardinals roster and farm system are barren. Wainwright and Reyes might be more than the Cards can bear to lose and otherwise they have nothing to offer.

Phillies Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Cole Hamels, Pat Burrell, and Abraham Nunez.
Analysis: Another uninspiring package. Nunez is a below average utility player and Burrell is an expensive bat off the bench, so the gem here is Hamels who showed flashes of brilliance in his first season, has incredible control and an experienced savvy which belies his youth. Still, what makes this particularly unlikely is that ARod would play third for the Phillies and most feel him returning to short is key to dropping the trade clause.

Giants Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez.
Analysis: Like the Cardinals, San Francisco has shown itself to be a warm environment to hometown players, even if they have hyper inflated heads (arrogant or otherwise), but also like the Cards, the Giants roster lacks desirable talent. Given that he’s one of their few future bright spots, I’m not certain the Giants offer Cain, but the kid with BIG time potential is the only realistic trade bait on the west side of the Bay Area.

Astros Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Brad Lidge and Jason Hirsch.
Analysis: The Astros desperately need offence, especially at shortstop where Adam Everett has a fabulous glove, but couldn’t hit the ball off a T. Lidge would be a monster set-up man for Rivera, and while Hirsch had a rocky introduction to the bigs, he was Houston’s top rated prospect at the start of last year. Lidge brings a lot to the table, but this package is downgraded over questions what Hirsch will bring in 2007.

Padres Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Bard, and Clay Hensley.
Analysis: I actually love this package, which fills three holes for the Yankees, so it only languishes in sixth because the Yanks need for top flight pitching supersedes their other needs. Despite a great first season, Hensley only grades out as fourth starter, not an ace. If the Padres really want ARod, then swapping Jake Peavy for Hensley, and including him in a package with Gonzalez would jump the Padres to the front of the que.

Tigers Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Jeremy Bonderman, Jordan Tata and Brandon Inge.
Analysis: Tiger ownership has shown themselves willing to spend money and GM Dave Dombrowski is smart enough to know that he needs to upgrade their offence if they hope to replicate this years success. The Tigers certainly have the arms to make a deal and ARod might consent to play for Jim Leyland, but if the Tigers indeed win the World Series then ARod might not want to be jumping on the coat tails.

Angels Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jeff Mathis.
Analysis: LA’s obviously a great market for ARod and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno has said he’s going to add a big name this offseason. The Angels have so many top prospects that the Yanks would be mad not to give them a call and try to sort something out. Of course, those prospects are so plentiful (and cheap) that trading them away for ARod might not be something conservative Angels GM Bill Stoneman wants to do.

Dodgers Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Chad Billingsley and Andy LaRoche.
Analysis: Like the Angels, the Dodgers have a plethora of prospects they could add to this if they really wanted to make a deal. Also like the Angels, the Dodgers need some offence and star power. Billingsley and LaRoche could both contribute to the Yankees next year, or if the Yanks prefer they could ask for Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Elbert, or even Andre Ethier. All good options worth New York’s consideration.

Cubs Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Rich Hill and Mark Prior.
Analysis: The rumor on the street is that the Cubs will hire Lou Piniella, making the Cubs ARod’s top choice. The only hitch being that the Cubs wont include either Zambrano or Derek Lee. So, if I’m the Yanks I get risky and ask for Prior. It’s the type of deal which will ultimately see one GM fired, but if he pitches for the Yanks, it really pays off. Hill, a top pitching prospect, is insurance.

White Sox Get: Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees Get: Joe Crede, Brandon McCarthy, and Brian Anderson.
Analysis: If ARod goes anywhere, Chicago seems the most likely destination. Sox GM Kenny Williams has shown a proclivity for the big deal, and he’s shown that he’s not afraid to deal heroes from their championship roster if it makes his team better. McCarthy’s ready to start and Crede’s the kind of guy New Yorkers will love. ARod could play short and join Jose Contreas as Yankee castoffs who flourish in the South Side.