Champagne Baths and Ping Pong Balls...

If any league has ever desperately wanted their regular season to end and their post season to begin, it’s the NBA this year. Between the rampant tanking for draft position, and Joey Crawford’s recent ejection of Tim Duncan (which is no laughing matter by the way), NBA commissioner David Stern must be unusually thankful that his season’s over and the focus of the public will be on first round matchups and not fired refs, brawls, new balls, and subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) improving lottery odds

From 16 to number 1 here’s how I’d rank the likelihood of a June Champagne bath for the playoff teams:

16) Washington Wizards – The Wizards are still missing a rugged low post presence to balance out their roster… Oh no, wait, that’s not why they’re the team Toronto, Chicago, and Cleveland spent all week trying to secure in the first round, it’s because Agent Zero, who along might have pulled a first round upset, is stuck on the sidelines until next season.
15) Orlando Magic – The worst team in the playoffs goes against title tested Detroit. Sorry Magic, but Dwight Howard is still too young, and the rest of the roster to anemic, for you to upset the Chauncey Billups’ crew.
14) Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are free-falling, but then of course nobody plays well when they lose both their starting power forward and their starting center. Yes, Kobe alone could win a series, but against the Suns. Not this year.
13) Golden State Warriors – You have to love the Don Nelson versus Dallas first round match up, and yes, GS had incredible success against the Warriors this year, but they aren’t taking the Mavs beyond six games.
12) New Jersey Nets – Another just incredible first round pairing, at least from a water cooler perspective, the Nets are fortunate that Arenas’ injury crippled the Wizards and allowed the Nets to pass them, because Vince Carter might actually try if it means upsetting his former employers, against Chicago they’d have lost fast.
11) Utah Jazz – Utah fans will go apocalyptic about being a slot behind a division rival they beat by six games, but the Jazz have been slumping for two months now. Andrei Kirilenko never broke out of his funk, and they still lack a reasonable starting two guard. What looked like a great first round match up with Houston, now looks like a five or six game series.
10) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets have finally clicked and if the result isn’t exactly scaring the Spurs, it’s at least making them sweat a little.
9) Toronto Raptors – Not this year for the Raptors, but of course if I’d said six months ago that they’d win their division, finish with the third seed, and possibly win a first round series, well, I think most Raptors’ fans would have been pretty happy with that.
8) Chicago Bulls – Wow, did the Bulls ever drop the ball last night in New Jersey. With the second seed and an opening round match up with Washington on the line, the Bulls lost to the Nets giving the Heat in round one, the Pistons in round two, and the Cavs in round three… ouch.
7) Miami Heat – the Heat have three things going for them: Shaquille O’Neal’s their starting center, Dwayne Wade’s their starting two guard, and Pat Riley’s their bench boss. I think Chicago is perfectly capable of beating them, as we almost saw last year, but I think the Heat are more likely to go all the way.
6) Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron is actually good enough to lead the Cavs out of the East, and their path to the finals was made much easier by their win, and Chicago’s loss last night, but how can I pick a team to win it all with Eric Snow as the starting point guard?
5) Houston Rockets – The Rockets are a chic dark horse team to win it all. With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy, I think the Rockets will make short work of Utah and give Dallas everything the Mavs can handle, but I’m not convinced the Rockets are deep enough to take down the Mavs and the winner of Spurs-Suns.
4) Detroit Pistons – The Pistons are another beneficiary of the Bulls blunder, because they now will play a second round match up against a team that’s given everything to get past round one. I think they’re a little too old, a little too banged up, but nobody’s going to be taking the Pistons for granted.
3) Dallas Mavericks – The Mavs won a league best 67 games, something which has only been done eight time in NBA history. Of those eight, only the 72/73 Celtics failed to convert their regular season success into an NBA championship. So, the smart money would be on the Mavericks winning everything. So why do I have them third? Stupidity mostly, a vague feeling that they weren’t quite as good as their record, and that San Antonio of the Suns will take them in a seven game series.
2) San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs were actually the leagues best team over the season’s second half, and their 8.4 point differential was the best in the league. Yes, they might have the refs against them, but I imagine that an early game call going against them is the most the Joey Crawford fiasco will affect them. David Stern will make it very clear to the refs calling the Spurs games that everything has to be on the even. He can’t have the suggestion of refs with an agenda.
1) Phoenix Suns – I don’t like that they have to play the Spurs in the second round, which is why winning 68 games would have been good. But the Suns don’t have the depth that the Mavs do, to make every game count. In the playoffs however, I think the strength of their top six overcomes the depth of Dallas and San Antonio. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but it seems that the Steve Nash has that determined look this year. He’s still having fun, but he’s fierce at the same time.



And in the season that will forever be remembered for it’s blatant tank jobs, I’d be remiss if I talked about the playoff team without mentioning this year’s (ahem) losers… here’s how I want the lottery results to play out:

1) Boston – The Celtics should be a great team. Even though I dread the thought of Bill Simmons wetting himself over the chance to draft one of the big two (Greg Oden or Kevin Durant), I just cannot escape the thought that seeing a team with such a storied history, languishing in mediocrity and irrelevance is heartbreaking. It’s the same reason that three years ago when the NHL conducted its “Sidney Draft” I was secretly hoping that Montreal would win the rights to Crosby. Sure, it would have meant watching my roommate, Big Sexy, walk around with a boner for two months, but at least the greatest franchise in NHL history would have mattered. A top two pick in this draft will make the Celtics relevant and that’s all I can ask for. (Greg Oden).

2) Portland – If the Trailblazers defied the odds and won the lottery I’d be Ok with that. Sure it’s not quite Celtic lore, but this is a proud fan base that’s suffered egregious harm from Paul Allen’s questionable ownership. Actually, David Stern should use his phenomenal powers (I’m pretty sure he can affect the lottery, just with the power of his brain, kind of like a Jedi mind trick, but without the goofy hair), to put Oden or Durant in Portland. (Kevin Durant).


3) Chicago – When James Dolan gave Isaiah Thomas the hearty thumbs up for a job well done, the pick that Chicago would have gotten from the Knicks was 16th, which wouldn’t have made the Eddy Curry trade so terrible. Of course, if Curry doesn’t tip in that last second shot against Charlotte last night the Bulls would’ve had 5.8% chance of the top spot, but instead they have a 1.867% chance, still jumping up to third would still make the trade lopsided. (Al Horford).

4) Memphis – The Grizzlies last place finish means that they can drop to no worse than fourth, so whatever, they finish here, maybe if they’d never left their much, much cooler home I’d want them to win the lottery, but in Memphis? Even the local Elvis’ don’t care… (Joakim Noah).

5) Milwaukee – Did you know that there’s a 15.6% chance that Milwaukee wins the lottery and Durant plays the first decade of his career in Wisconsin? Actually the odds are higher if you figure out what the possibility of them winning the second slot are. With a frontline of him, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva they’d be good, really good, but… ughhh… Wisconsin? Really? For some reason it bothers me less for Oden than Durant, I’m not sure why. (Julian Wright)

6) Phoenix – The Suns can get the fourth pick if Atlanta’s pick ends up outside the top three. And at worst, they’ll end up with the 6th choice, which is still good enough in this draft to grab an awesome talent. Of course, it’s just as likely that Atlanta ends up in the top three. (Brandon Wright).

7) Seattle – If the Sonics take Chad Ford’s sixth rated prospect, then we can see how giant Chinese youngster gets along with the folks in Oklahoma City. (Yi Jianlian).

8) Minnesota – After the top three selections the lottery just conforms to the standings (with ties decided by coin flip), which really makes the rest of this just an exercise in typing and pithy comments. (Mike Conley).

9) Charlotte – The Bobcats could actually contend for a playoff spot next year just by having Sean May, Raymond Felton, and Emeka Okafor healthy, but getting someone special in the ninth spot certainly would help. (Corey Brewer).

10) Sacramento – The Kings need to blow things up. Find Mike Bibby a new home (difficult, but probably not impossible), find Ron Artest a new home (quite possibly impossible), and draft a replacement for the suddenly ancient Brad Miller (entirely possible in this draft). (Spencer Hawes).

11) Atlanta – Even if the Hawks are shut out of the top part of the draft, which they very well might not be, they’ll still get to draft in the lottery thanks to the Pacers’ acquisition of Al Harrington. Since Harrington’s already been traded by Indiana, who subsequently missed the playoffs, this actually is one of Billy King’s better deals. (Roy Hibbert).

12) Philadelphia – Philly fans thought the 76ers thought they’d be challenging for Oden, but the AI trade and subsequent dumping Chris Webber, actually made them a pretty good team. (Jeff Green).

13) New Orleans – Another club that needs some good health to be in the playoffs. Since their .6% chance of winning the lottery seems unlikely of helping them out, they’d better hope that freshman studs like Thaddeus Young and Chase Buddinger come out. Both will probably still be here at 13, but only because the top of this draft is so good.

14) Los Angeles – The only way the Clippers season is not seen as incredibly disappointing is if they pull a 1993 Magic and go from the worst lottery odds, to lottery Kings. But that’s about as likely as me winning the big 12 million draw this weekend. (Acie Law).

Some Flaws and Some Solutions...

Ten games into the season, it seems like an excellent time to play that fun little game, which five players would I steal from another team to improve the Jays. If you don’t remember the game, the point is to identify the Jays’ most pressing needs and find a player who would best fill that hole. Sure, it’s just about as pointless as wishing I were taller, but that didn’t stop me standing in the mirror, in my Superman undies, and thinking, ‘if I were just a few inches taller…” If nothing else, it’s important to know your team’s faults, just like it’s important to know that people find you vaguely shallow and particularly smelly.

As I see it now, the Jays have a good, but not great team. They’re good enough to start 6-4, but only because six of those ten games were against Tampa Bay and K.C. So, what are the holes keeping them from being great? The most obvious hole is at short, where Royce Clayton has started well, but will inevitably decline to his career norms (.313 OBP in sixteen seasons), and while Clayton’s defense is far superior to the albatross that started last season at short (My Dr. informed me that my blood pressure rises to dangerous levels every time I type his name, so unfortunately if you want to know of whom I speak, you’ll have to look it up at baseballreference.com), his anemic hitting makes him a huge weak spot. Offensively, the Jays also suffer from being overly right handed, but otherwise they are better than average at every other position, except catcher. Greg Zaun’s a great clubhouse presence and yada, yada, yada… we could use a better player. Zaun’s hit well over the past few season’s, but lets be clear, he’s not the second coming of Carlton Fisk. Defensively, having watched opposing teams steal at will (ok, apparently he threw somebody out, but that must have been while I was getting a “frothy beverage” from the fridge, because I sure didn’t see it), I wouldn’t mind somebody whose arm makes an opposing runner think before taking off for second.

Of course the lineup is only half the battle and the Jays have a gaping hole in the rotation. After Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, the Jays have Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka, and Josh Towers starting for them… Needless to say that makes the acids in my stomach churn. Chacin can be an elusive pitcher, who nibbles the strike zone and makes hitters knock soft grounders, but he can also lose his control, build high pitch counts, and load runners on. Given his stuff, he’s much more of a solid fourth starter than a great number three. So, what the Jays really need is a great third starter, who pushes Chacin back to fourth, Ohka to fifth, and Towers to triple A. Finally, no season transpires without a costly injury to an important member of the team. Good teams can weather this storm, because they have youngsters ready to step up and perform. The Jays have great minor league depth in the outfield, but if something should happen to one of their infielders, then that dreaded miscreant who shall not be named could well make an appearance in the bigs. This I don’t think I could handle. Another top notch minor league pitcher couldn’t hurt either. So, lets recap, the Jays’ shopping list would look something this:
1) Shortstop
2) A third starter
3) A catcher
4) Left handed hitting
5) Minor league depth.

Alright, now that we know our flaws, lets go fix them:

1) The player I wish the Jays had on their roster more than anybody else, isn’t Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, or any of those other bog boppers. It isn’t even Miguel Tejada or the Yankees’ Derek Jeter. It’s Jeter’s cross town rival Jose Reyes. Actually, to be fair, all things being equal, it’s Grady Sizemore that I’d want more than anyone else, but since we already have a pretty good centerfielder, Reyes is the man. A switch hitting leadoff hitter, Reyes fields short well, steals bases, hits for power, and (most importantly) gets on base. He’s a chic pick for NL MVP, because of the havoc he creates, but MVP season or not, Reyes would be a massive upgrade from Clayton.

2) The Red Sox spent 51.1 million for the chance to negotiate with a potential third starter in part because they wanted him and in part to keep him away from the Yankees, perhaps the Jays should have spent 52 million to keep him away from both the Yanks AND the Sox. The situations are actually pretty similar: established ace (albeit Halladay’s a decade younger than Schilling), followed by a phenomenally talented former Florida pitcher who can be lights out, or… not (Burnett and Josh Beckett). Daisuke Matsusaka might be better than Boston’s top two starters, which is a pretty tantalizing prospect from you third guy, and somebody the Jays could certainly use.

3) It’s not that I dislike Zaun, it’s just that I’d like him so, so much more as the backup. Joe Mauer is of course everything I am looking for in a catcher, he calls a great game, has experience working with a top flight rotation, is great blocking the plate and throwing out runners. His OBP last year was .429, and while he only hit 13 home runs, he still had a .507 slugging percentage, and, just for gravy’s sake, he’s left handed to boot. Atlanta’s Brian McCann is pretty exceptional and comes this (_) close, but since I’m purging the best, Mauer’s my guy.

4) Frank Thomas was awesome for the A’s last year, and I think he’ll be almost as good for Toronto this year, but given our left handed needs, why not pluck baseball’s best pure hitter from Cleveland. For some reason, Travis Hafner flies under the radar, but he shouldn’t. The big lefthander is at least as clutch as Boston’s Big Papi, but he’s cheaper, younger and his overall numbers are actually better (although not as flashy). Last year in 129 games, Hafner smacked 42 home runs, while walking 100 times. His good .308 average looks even better when followed up by his .439 OBP and sick .659 slugging percentage.

5) Ok, I’m cheating a little with this one, I’m going to take two minor leaguers to augment the Jays’ farm system. Since we have Adam Lind (who should be with the big club), Ryan Patterson, and Travis Snider all progressing as major outfield talent, what we need is somebody who can step in and help the infield should Troy Glaus or Lyle Overbay hurt their foot one night. I’d probably take Evan Longoria, who’s shooting like a comet up the Devil Rays system. And for the pitcher, obviously the Yankees’ Phil Hughes is the man. Those two would make those mid season injuries easier to bare.

So, with all these tantalizing changes, our lineup would look something like this:

1) J. Reyes, ss, (s)
2) J. Mauer, c, (l)
3) V. Wells, cf, (r)
4) T. Hafner, dh, (l)
5) T. Glaus, 3b, (r)
6) L. Overbay, 1b, (l)
7) A. Rios, rf, (r)
8) A. Lind, lf, (l)
9) A. Hill, 2b, (r)

It would be kind of hard for opposing managers to match up with that lineup. The seamless blend of righty-lefty, the speed at the top, solid at bats, power. Mauer and Hafner getting on base twice a game. Suddenly the Yankees and Sox wouldn’t look so formidable.

Let's Play Ball...

(Ed. Note: Sigh... This should have been up last Sunday, but as it often does with this scribe, life got in the way... So, the division previews were pushed back, and so was the season intro. Still, it all applies as though it were written today)

The sun is shining, the smell of clipped grass permeates the air, children laugh and play in the street, all we need is that indisputably perfect sound, of wood connecting with ball. The crack of the bat ripping through the momentarily subdued crowd before a murmur erupts into a cheer. Somebody running, someone sliding, dirt grazed pants, grass stained shirts, unnecessary spitting, crotch grabbing, and (yes) swearing. It’s time for hotdogs and overpriced beer, for a fence shrouded in ivy, and a monster that’s green; it’s time for a stretch after seven, and the possibility to play two. It’s time for the majestic poetry of a game that can at times be played like a ballet and at others like a runaway train. It’s time for teamwork melded with sheer individualism, for taking a pitch, grinding out a walk, or staring at a third strike right down the middle. It’s time for donuts, resin bags, and pine tar, for turning two, and taking an extra base. It’s time for spectacular catches and horrendous gaffs, for suicide squeezes, backdoor sliders, and taters too high and too hard. It’s time for Manny being Manny, for kicking dirt on the umpire, and broken bats. It’s time passed balls, balks, and maybe a perfect game (if we’re lucky). It’s time to hit the gaps, send it around the horn, and for several million fungoes. It’s time for box scores, fights over statistics, and debates about history. It’s time for Vin Scully, Jon Miller, and yes, even Joe Morgan. It’s time for stadiums built to like Cathedrals, and players worshipped like saints, heck, it’s even time for some Yankees. It’s time for streaks, for promotions and demotions, and for warm summer days, with warm breezes and the echoing sound of thousands of screaming people all enjoying the same moment in time. It’s time to remember the words of Walt Whitman, the great American poet who once wrote of baseball, “It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us.” In short, it's time for the greatest game of all, it's time for baseball.

So, after all the preamble, after all those write ups on so many teams, what does it all mean? Who’s going where, who’s winning what, and why?

The Wild Cards – Since you already know that I am picking Arizona, St. Louis, Philly, the Angels, Cleveland, and Boston as my division winners, then who do I have making the October trip as the Wild Card? Well in the AL I foresee the Yankees holding off the Tigers, Twins and A’s to grab the final playoff spot. And since I’m in a New York state of mind, how can I not pick the Mets to outlast the Dodgers, Braves and Brewers in the senior circuit.

Manager of the Year – Look at the names on this award in the past decade: Leyland, Girardi, Guillen, Showalter, Cox, McKeown, Pena, they’re all from surprise teams. Terry Francona isn’t winning this unless the Sox win 118, neither is Torre. It’ll be Cleveland’s Eric Wedge and Arizona’s Bob Melvin who take their surprise teams to the playoffs and thus garner the hardware.

Rookie of the Year – Dice-K is going to be so good for the Sox (16 wins, ERA around 3.5) that the few voters believe that Japanese imports shouldn’t count as rookies, will be forced to vote for him anyhow. Of course if those rule bending morons influence the vote again (as they did in 2003 when Angel Berroa beat out Hidkei Matsui), then look for Alex Gordon’s solid opening campaign to win the Royals another upset ROY. In the NL, Arizona centerfielder Chris Young will show all five his “tools” while helping the DBacks win their division.

Cy Young – It’s a very short list, the players who might legitimately win a Cy over Johan Santana (and no, Bartolo Colon is not anywhere near that list), Roy Halladay, Rich Harden if he’s healthy, Justin Verlander if he takes that next step, Felix Hernandez if he realizes his potential. Do I see any of them doing it? Nope, it’s Johan’s world. On the other side, Roy Oswalt is probably the best pitcher in baseball never to have won a Cy Young. With Clemens and Oswalt no longer dominating headlines in Houston, Oswalt finally gets the acknowledgement he deserves and picks up the title.

MVP – I wrote last year, “Baring major injury, I’m just going to write down Albert Pujols’ name for this award every year for the next decade, and more often than not I’m going to be right --- he’s just that good.” The Mets’ Jose Reyes is a trendy alternate choice, but I have no reason to ignore those words I wrote a year ago, Albert is king. In the AL I think that Grady Sizemore’s spectacular play is finally realized in a big way, and rewarded with big hardware.

In the playoffs I like the Tribe to excel over the AL East bullies and the Mets pitching to come around just in time to sweep through the playoffs. In the World Series we get the joy of watching Sizemore and Reyes, the amusement of Travis Hafner in the field, and the ghost of Pedro getting shelled by the Indians in game seven of a tight, thrilling series. Of course, my predictions are always wrong, but you know what? I don’t care, because after six months of watching basketball, football and hockey, finally, it’s time to “Play Ball!”

2007 American League East Preview:

What do you do with the American League East? In seven of the past nine years it has finished in the exact same order: Yanks, Sox, Jays, Orioles, Rays. The other two years were only disrupted by those lovable (at least by me), shit disturbing Jays. In 2004 they were particularly bad, losing 94 games to drop all the way to fifth, and in 2006 they won 87 games to jump past the Sox into second. Everybody else just slots into the same position. So, in a year where the Jays again look to be the third best team, but where the Sox might be better than the Yankees (at least on paper), where the Rays look to have their best team ever, and where the Orioles look as confusing as ever, what do you do? Do you try to look brash and switch things up, or do you go the safe route and slot them in where they seem to finish anyhow? And really, making predictions for any division is silly because you can never predict who’ll get hurt, or who’ll have nine guys overachieve (it happens), but it’s particularly pointless in the AL East, where the Yankees and Sox will almost certainly acquire some top flight talent half way through the year. Clemens ends up in the Bronx, no matter because the Sox manage to pry Miguel Cabrera from Florida (god, I hope not, but you take my point…). Oh heck, who wants to watch life from the safety of the ground, the views way better if you’re sitting on a tree limb: it says here that for the first time in a decade, the Yanks don’t win the division… of course they still make the playoffs anyhow.

Boston Red Sox (86-76 Last Year)
Projected Win Range: 92-96
Best Player: David Ortiz – I wouldn’t normally select a DH as a team’s best player, but the Sox have two hitters who are leaps and bounds better than the rest of the team one’s a DH (Big Papi) and the other actually costs them runs because he isn’t (Manny being Manny), so the mammoth lefty gets the nod.
Best Pitcher: Daisuke Matsusaka – Forget Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, by season’s end, the Sox’s number ‘three’ starter will have been their best.
Best Kid: Jacoby Ellsbury – He would be their best “fielding” outfielder right now, if his bat can catch up to his glove this summer, then Ellsbury could be patrolling center at Fenway by late August.
Impact Offseason Move: Dice-K, get onboard…
Questionable Offseason Move: I think they overspent on Julio Lugo, who was terrible for the Dodgers last year. However, if he returns to his numbers of two years ago (.362 OBP), then the Sox will score a lot of runs. Actually, they’ll score a lot of runs either way.
Bottom Line: After their ridiculous 2006 offseason, which was probably directly related to their disappointing third place finish last year, the Red Sox went back to their cool efficient ways. They needed to upgrade their outfield defense and their lineup, so they went out and signed right fielder J.D. Drew and his .904 career OPS. They also needed to upgrade their bullpen, so they added Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, and took a flier on Joel Pineira. And, while their rotation looked like a strength, they only made it stronger by spending a little bit of money on some dude from Japan. While Dice-K mania will only shine more light on the already maxed out Red Sox nation, it’ll also give them the best rotation in baseball. With wonder kid Jonathan Papelbon and holdovers Schilling, Beckett, and Tim Wakefield, the Sox go five deep, with four hard throwers and the crafty knuckleballer. Their only area of concern is the closer position, where they start the year with a closer by committee approach, but will hope that Pineiro, Mike Timlin, or a Papelbon-esque youngster can claim the position.

New York Yankees (97-65)
Projected Win Range: 91-95
Best Player: Derek Jeter – The AL MVP runner up probably wont be quite as good as last year, and depending on what measures you look at, he’s either overrated or underrated, but Jeter is the Yankees leader, their shortstop, and last year he was also their best hitter.
Best Pitcher: Roger Clemens – Just call it a hunch…
Best Kid: Phil Hughes – Baseball’s number one minor league pitching prospect, Hughes will have otherworldly expectations when he makes his Bronx debut, but he has all the stuff to be the Yankees best pitcher by next year.
Impact Offseason Move: The Yankees had an excess of outfielders and they used that to trade Gary Sheffield for three minor league pitching prospects, including flame thrower Humberto Sanchez.
Questionable Offseason Move: To be fair Randy Johnson asked to be traded back to Arizona, but for all the thoughts that Randy wasn’t productive for the Yankees, he led the team in wins, innings pitched, and K’s over the last two years. They’ll feel his loss in the rotation, unless of course removing him opens the door for his rival Clemens to return.
Bottom Line: This year in particular, pundits seem to be coming out of the woodwork, predicting the downfall of the Yankees, not because their lineup isn’t still awesome, but because their pitching staff looks shaky. Without Johnson, and with injury concerns for Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, there is some concern, but with Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Rodriguez, Giambi, Cano, Matsui, and Posada the Yankees will rake. Defensively, they are something of a house of cards, with collapse possible at any point and the pitching staff needs Wang and Pettitte to rejoin a rotation that right now consists of Mike Mussina, unproven Japanese import Kei Igawa, and Carl Pavano. Pavano was terrible in his first season with the Yanks and missed all of last year with a series of suspicious injuries that had his teammates questioning his work ethic, but now the Yanks will be relying on him to stabilize a rotation that could see an influx of youth sooner rather than later. But before proclaiming the downfall of the Yanks, remember two things: first, that the Yanks are endowed with a plethora of young power arms who could be helping the big club by the middle of summer and second, there’s some guy named Roger who could very well be solidifying that rotation by the end of June. So, with a lineup that could set the all time record for runs scored and pitching that might soon be better than it presently appears, it’d be folly to predict a October without the Yanks.

Toronto Blue Jays (87-75)
Projected Win Range: 85-89
Best Player: Vernon Wells – Getting Vernon signed, might have been the best move of J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay – If Doc can stay healthy then he’s one of only two or three pitchers in the AL who can challenge Johan Santana for the Cy.
Best Kid: Adam Lind – He should have started the season in a platoon with Reed Johnson, but the Jays are hopping Reed can continue his hitting from last year. Should he falter, then Lind will step in to the void.
Impact Offseason Move: Obviously eliminating the Wells’ leaving quandary was the most important move of the offseason, but upgrading the DH position with Frank Thomas is also a good move.
Questionable Offseason Move: Royce Clayton? Really? Him? Are you kidding me?
Bottom Line: The Jays raised their payroll for the second straight year, and expectations remain high as a result, but despite a payroll of around 81 million, the Jays still only have three obvious answers in the rotation, none of whom are sure bets to make 32 starts. To remedy that problem, GM J.P. Ricciardi looked to sign incumbent Ted Lilly and Seattle righty Gil Meche, but when those two inked deals worth a combined 95 million, with Chicago and Kansas City respectively, J.P. wisely looked for cheaper options. He signed Tomo Ohka, Victor Zambrano and John Thompson to a combined 2.5 million in guaranteed money. Those three, far from sure bets, will compete with Josh Towers and youngsters Casey Jansen, Dustin McGowan, and Shaun Marcum for those two vacant rotation spots. If the Jays can get 30 quality starts from any two of those seven, and 85 starts from their big three, then they could sneak into a wild card spot, but that’s a lot of “ifs” for a team in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Offensively the Jays are overloaded with right handers, but should still put runs on the board in bunches. Thomas significantly upgrades production from the DH spot, while Clayton should be no worse, although no better, than John McDonald was last year. The presence of Thomas should offset some of the natural depreciation that comes from Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, and Greg Zaun each of whom had something of a career year in 2006. The Jays need to get off to a hot start, taking advantage of the Yanks early season pitching concerns and the Sox’s tough April schedule. More likely though, the Jays hang around five or six back through most of the summer, before falling out of the race in August.

Baltimore Orioles (70-92)
Projected Win Range: 78-82
Best Player: Miguel Tejada – Even in what was a down year for the shortstop, Tejada still hit .330, with 37 doubles and 24 home runs.
Best Pitcher: Eric Bedard – The young left hander is just going into his prime, and in his second season under Leo Mazzone should develop into a lights out ace.
Best Kid: Adam Loewen – Whatever else I say about the Orioles, you have to love that if Loewen develops in his second season, then two of their three best pitchers are Canadian boys.
Impact Offseason Move: Oh I don’t know, I like the Jay Payton deal, but the 32 year old Payton isn’t exactly helping them catch the Yankees.
Questionable Offseason Move: Not finding a way to fire owner Peter Angelos will continue to hamper the franchise.
Bottom Line: The hardest team in all of baseball to prognosticate. I can say emphatically that they are not good enough to challenge the Yankees or the Sox, but if pitching coach Leo Mazzone can develop youngsters Daniel Cabrera, Loewen, and Hayden Penn, then the Orioles could be good enough to overtake the Jays, of course they also have enough weak points in their lineup that if the kids don’t come around, they could just as easily finish beneath the Devil Rays. Miguel Tejada remains one of the top three shortstops in baseball and while third baseman Melvin Mora is getting a little grey in the tooth, he probably has enough left in the tank to make a solid top of the order with underrated second baseman Brian Roberts. With developing right fielder Nick Markakis in the number three spot, Tejada should have a lot of opportunity to do what he does best, bring runners home. After those four though, the order is filled with guys ranging from overrated (Aubrey Huff), to passable (John Gibbons), to deadwood (Kevin Millar). The Orioles spent a lot of money in the offseason to improve their bullpen, although with Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker earning a combined ten million this year, it’s not entirely clear that they spent wisely. The Birds will have a 92 million dollar payroll this year, but the money has been so poorly allocated over the past few years, and owner Peter Angelos has vetoed so many sound baseball deals for his own absurd reasons, that the team has the worst bench in baseball. So if Mazzone doesn’t work his Brave magic with the kids, not to mention veterans Steve Trachsel and Jaret Wright (who won 15 games under Mazzone in 2004), then matching last year’s 70 wins would hardly be surprising.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101)
Projected Win Range: 70-74
Best Player: Carl Crawford – He remains the Rays bright spot, but maybe trading him for pitching would be the best thing for the franchise’s future.
Best Pitcher: Scott Kazmir – I hate Russ Adams…
Best Kid: Delmon Young – Young has been such a rising star, plagued by “incidents,” that it’s hard to remember that the rookie is only 21 years old. If he wants to achieve his potential, Young will have to take more pitches, but there’s no doubt that the kid will hit for average and power in the bigs.
Impact Offseason Move: I like bringing Elijah Dukes up to the big club. He might not be mature enough as a player, but his immaturity as a person will be easier for Tampa brass to manage with him under their direct supervision.
Questionable Offseason Move: Stop the insanity! B.J. Upton should have been moved to centerfield in November (if not three years ago), this super utility idea is just straight stupid.
Bottom Line: Watch out for the Devil Rays. They’re coming on, maybe not this year and maybe not the next, but this team will win more than they lose sooner than you think. They still make confounding decisions with their roster, and they still have a Grand Canyon style void of pitching on the big league roster, but they have two studs in the outfield (Crawford and Rocco Baldelli), their young hitters are reaching the bigs (Young, Upton, Dukes, with Evan Langoria and Reid Brignac less than a year away), and while Scott Kazmir remains their only top quality starter, reinforcements are coming. Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, and Wade Davis all project as front line starters and will begin the year in AAA. Two steps behind them are Matt Walker and Jeremy Hellickson who could be helping the big club in late 2008. The Rays still need some veteran pitchers to surround the kids, and they need to sort out an cramped outfield (Crawford, Baldelli, Young are projected as starters, but Dukes is ready to play, and one day they’ll realize that Upton’s actually a centerfielder), but those two problems shouldn’t be mutually exclusive. What the Rays have is the most athletic team in the majors. Whatever combination they decide to use in the outfield, it projects to have three guys capable of playing center, all with rocket arms (watch Young throw from right field, it’s a laser). The infield defense will be better if they find a replacement for the lead handed Jorge Cantu at second, because Langoria and Brignac both will be plus fielders, but a move to first might benefit a guy who hit 28 home runs two years ago. This season is something of a transition for the snake bite franchise, but I think that at worst this young, explosive team surpasses their franchise record for wins, as they begin a serious two year march to .500 and beyond.

2007 National League East Preview:

Something in the NL East was different last year, something was odd. Was it the Nationals finishing at the bottom? No. Was it Philadelphia disappointing? No. Was it the Marlins surprising people and having a better year than anyone expected? No? Maybe, just maybe, it was the New York Mets doing what no one has done before… Did you hear the trumpets sound? Did you hear bell tone? The fat lady finally sang for the Atlanta Braves and their division winning streak. And while it was inevitable that one day someone else would win the East, that didn’t make it any less surprising. The Mets were clearly the better team, but that hadn’t stopped the Braves in the past. And after 14 straight division championships (strike year excluded, the final eleven in the “East”), the Braves fall came not with a bang, but almost a whimper. Perhaps it was the reality that after an 11 game losing streak in late June, the Braves were all but done, but when reality finally struck, in October and postseason baseball kicked off without John Smoltz, well, surprisingly, you’d hardly have known.

This year, the Braves have improved, but like everyone in the National League East, they have questions. How will Tim Hudson respond after his worst major league season? Will Jeff Francoeur learn to control the strike zone? Or will he remain a tantalizing player whose overall effectiveness is horribly limited by an anemic walk rate. Can Chipper Jones stay healthy? Will Scott Thorman hit enough to justify being the everyday first baseman? So while it’s easy for Braves’ fans to be excited about Smoltz and Chuck James, or about their revamped bullpen, and their strong looking lineup, the Braves no longer get the benefit of the doubt. Now, like the starter-less Mets, and the consistently underachieving Phillies, the Braves go into the season as something of an unknown. Tantalizing, but no longer the pencil them in as division champs and let somebody else prove you wrong. The last time they were underdogs, they didn’t even play in the East, they played in the West. The old (NL) West, it was 1991 and baseball was ruled not by Braves and Yankees, but by Royals, Tigers, and Twins. It’s so long ago, it’s hard to imagine.

Philadelphia Phillies (85-77 Last Season)
Projected Win Range: 92-96
Best Player: Ryan Howard – Last year’s NL MVP probably wont hit 58 home runs again, but he could swat 45 without even waking up.
Best Pitcher: Bret Myers – If Cole Hamels can stay healthy, then this might be him, but Myers, who has gone 25-15 over the past two years, is just entering his prime and has the raw stuff to lead Philly’s rotation for the rest of the decade.
Best Kid: Cole Hamels – Nobody questions Hamels ability, he pitches with a savvy that can only be obtained inherently (think, Greg Maddux). However, his past is checkered with arm injuries and for the Phillies to contend this year, they need him to throw in 30 plus starts.
Impact Offseason Move: Acquiring right hander Freddy Garcia gives the Phillies an innings eating horse for the middle of their rotation.
Questionable Offseason Move: Well, their bullpen is 39 year old closer Tom Gordon and…? So maybe they should have found another live arm to help finish games.
Bottom Line: The Phillies aren’t without fault, that bullpen will be a problem at some point, but their offence is primed up and ready to win a lot of 9-7 games. The reigning NL MVP is flanked in the order by the game’s premier second baseman, Chase Utley, and the underrated Pat Burrell. It took years, but Burrell’s contract no longer seems so egregious, now, rather than being a perpetual disappointment, he can just be what he is: a good, but not great hitter. With Utley and Howard hitting in front of him, that’s all the Phillies need him to be. The pitching staff has two great youngsters only getting better, Myers and Hamels should capably lead a solid rotation all summer. They are followed by Garcia, the rejuvenated Adam Eaton, and the ageless Jamie Moyer. While none of those three throw fireworks, they each work capably and deep into games, which is all the Phillies need of them. If they can pitch late enough, often enough to combine for 35 wins then Phillies fans, will have something to cheer about in October for the first time since Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams hung a bad pitch to Joe Carter…

New York Mets (97-65)
Projected Win Range: 91-95
Best Player: Carlos Beltran – Last year, Beltran was the player that his skill set (and contract) have been suggesting he could be. A gold glove fielder, he hit 41 home runs, with a .982 OPS and finished fourth in the MVP voting. David Wright is a borderline superstar, Jose Reyes is the sparkplug at the top, and Carlos Delgado is trying to clinch a hall of fame birth, but Beltran’s the King of Queen’s.
Best Pitcher: Tom Glavine – I love Glavine, but he’s 41 years old now, and while he still pushes the edges of the strike zone with the best of them, he’s well, a 41 year old finesse pitcher.
Best Kid: Mike Pelfrey – After Glavine, the Mets rotation is the ancient, and injury prone Orlando Hernandez, and…? At some point the Mets may acquire another good starter, but they will need Pelfrey to rapidly hone his secondary stuff and earn a rotation spot.
Impact Offseason Move: In what was an oddly quiet offseason in Shea, the Mets best move was bringing in grizzled, pee stained veteran, Moises Alou (.923 OPS last year) to offer lineup protection to Carlos Delgado.
Questionable Offseason Move: Baseball is a lot like real estate, only instead of location, location, location, it’s rotation, rotation, rotation. The market for pitching was ridiculous this offseason, but I still wonder how the Mets, with their massive resources, failed to add another innings eater or two.
Bottom Line: Lets start with the good news: with a one through five of Reyes, Wright, the Carlos’s and Alou, the Mets could win 90 games with my Grandma pitching for them. Of course, the bad news is that the Mets might be better off with my Granny in the rotation than Oliver Perez. Heck, my Granny might even be younger than Orlando Hernandez, you just don’t know… While Tom Glavine continues to be a given, right hander John Maine had better be as good as he was last fall, when he allowed a WHIP of 1.13, and Hernandez had better stay healthy. Even if those two things happen, the Mets need something out of Oliver Perez and they need Mike Pelfrey to ascend to the majors. Mets fans like to list their bullpen among their strengths, but here’s a dirty little secret about bullpens: they’re inherently unstable. What was a great bullpen last year, could be a terrible one this year, even without much overhaul of talent (and injuries hae claimed to arms from the pen until early summer). The pens effectiveness is often related, at least in part, to the strength of the rotation. A good rotation pitches deep into games and makes the bullpen look better simply by giving them less exposure to hitters. Whether the Mets’ rotation can limit the exposure of its bullpen will go a long way towards determining whether they can repeat as division champs.

Atlanta Braves (79-83)
Projected Win Range: 83-87
Best Player: Andruw Jones – An untold story is how Jones’ defense has declined to the point where he’s probably not a gold glover anymore, but he still covers enough territory and hits enough home runs to be a very good player.
Best Pitcher: John Smoltz – Like Roger Clemens and, to a lesser degree, Randy Johnson, Smoltz just continues to chug along as a dominant flamethrower.
Best Kid: Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty had a down year last year, but should recover quickly and push the Braves for promotion. The only question is where? With Brian McCann entrenched at catcher, Salty may be more valuable as a trade chip, or he might be switched to first.
Impact Offseason Move: I absolutely love the trade of fringe starter Horatio Ramirez for right handed set-up man, Rafael Soriano. With wicked stuff, Soriano will step into the closer role should Bob Wickman falter.
Questionable Offseason Move: Scott Thorman had better hit the ball far and reasonably often to account for the trade of Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez. Of course, Thorman’s a Canadian boy, so maybe I shouldn’t be questioning a move that clears a major league spot for him.
Bottom Line: The Braves will be better than last year, but I think proclamations that have them winning the NL are a little premature. Second baseman Kelly Jonson has never played second base, McCann will not be quite as good as last year, and Francoeur has to prove that he can take a pitch, or two, or four. None of that would matter if these were still the Mazzone led Braves of the Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz era, but while Smoltz remains as good (or close enough) as ever, the rest of the rotation is riddled with question marks. Mark Redman is far removed from being a passable fourth starter, and Tim Hudson might be past being a number two. Chuck James was awesome last year, and he unquestionably has the coolest name in the majors, but he’s a second year pitcher and that makes him questionable. The Braves should be good enough to be in contention, but the days of taking them for granted are done, and this team just has too many holes to pencil into a date with October.

Florida Marlins (78-84)
Projected Win Range: 75-79
Best Player: Miguel Cabrera – If he played in NY people, Cabrera’s name would regularly be bandied about as the best in baseball.
Best Pitcher: Dontrelle Willis – He goes into the season as the biggest Fish that might be available to pitching poor teams in July.
Best Kid: Taylor Tankersley
Impact Offseason Move: After an apocalyptic 2005 offseason, the Fish were pretty quiet this year. Not trading Willis would count as an impact move, but only if they tie him down long term.
Questionable Offseason Move: With all the talent they’ve assembled, and all the pitching depth they have, how could they not complete a trade with their Florida brethrens for either Rocco Baldeli or B.J. Upton?
Bottom Line: The Fish were last year’s biggest surprise, as a team comprised completely of rookies, most had them pegged for 100 losses. Even pundits (cough, cough) who claimed that they would be better than people thought (and soon would be really good) were shocked by just how good, how fast they were. But here’s the rub, the Marlins wont be quite as good this year. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still a team on the rise, they are, but young teams often show incredible growth one year, and then a stark regression the next. In the case of the Marlins, I think the regression will be tempered by how talented they are (particularly Cabrera), but I’d still expect a worse record than last year. This will be particularly true if management decides that they don’t want to pay Dontrelle Willis and find a new home for him in July. Long term, things look rosy for the Marlins, but their closer situation is unsettled, they lack a strong centerfield candidate, Cabrera’s better suited to left field than third base, and Josh Johnson (12-7), 3.10 ERA) is starting the year on the DL.

Washington Nationals (71-91)
Projected Win Range: 60-64
Best Player: Ryan Zimmerman – The runner up in the NL rookie of the year voting is an excellent talent for the Nats to build around.
Best Pitcher: John Patterson – Patterson has had trouble staying healthy and might be better acclimated to the third spot in a rotation, but the Nats have nobody else in their rotation.
Best Kid: Matt Chico – The Nationals don’t have any top flight talent ready to help the big club this year. Chico has number four starter abilities and should help the club this summer, but his arrival wont exactly mirror what Jared Weaver did for Anaheim last year.
Impact Offseason Move: Swapping the decrepit Jose Vidro to the Mariners for a bag of balls would have been a good deal, but getting a couple of prospects for him is a better one.
Questionable Offseason Move: I’m not wild about brining in Dmitri Young, who was cut by the Tigers in the middle of a pennant race, despite batting in the three hole two days before.
Bottom Line: The Nats are beginning a long, slow rebuilding process, that should see several seasons of around 65 wins. The drawn out process of leaving Montreal, finding a new owner, and settling on a stadium deal has taken the focus off of the product on the field for so long that Washington is barren of talent at every level of their system. A strong draft in 2006 will help, but it will be two or three years before kids like Chris Marrero and Colin Balester can help the big league club. The situation in Washington is so dire, that after parting ways with mercurial, headstrong manager Frank Robinson, the Nationals had trouble finding someone interested in taking the starting job. In the end, GM Jim Bowden settled on Mets third base coach Manny Acta. While he may ultimately prove the right man for the job, Acta will have a tough time matching the 71 wins the team won last year. And if Acta goes through with his plan to hit shortstop Christian Guzman, who had a .260 OBP last year, second then things could get a lot worse. Instead he should hit first baseman Nick Johnson, .428 OBP last year, second, with the run producing Zimmerman in the three hole. That would allow Washington to maximize their offence, by having their two best hitters come to the plate in the first inning of every game. And this team will need to score some runs, because they might just have the worst starting rotation in baseball. Unfortunately for the new fans in Washington there is no quick fix for anemic pitching, which means they’re looking at a long, slow rebuilding process.