Thursday, February 23, 2006

Three on Three...

(Ed Note: Another one that was written some time ago. Some time between Babcock being fired and the Detroit Pistons trading Darko)

Now that Rob Babcock has been unceremoniously sent packing, it’s time to look at the NBA’s other top dogs; which guys understand the subtleties of building a team, that you cannot just stockpile erroneous contracts and hope that because the guy is being paid 36 million he plays like he’s worth 36 million, and who should be following in Rob’s hollow footsteps. Who needs to parlay their NBA fame into a real estate gig somewhere? So, after consulting the committee (of one), Achanceyougottatake Sports presents our top three and bottom three General Managers in the NBA today.

Give the guy the keys to the car, the private jet, and a raise to boot…

The Best of the Pack – Rod Thorn was responsible for fleecing Rob Babcock in the Vince Carter trade, but the lack of a big man on the Nets roster holds him back; a whole article could be written on the great moves of Indiana’s Donnie Walsh (particularly trading Dale Davis for Jermaine O’Neal), but this Artest induced transition period will really be where he writes his legacy; Sacramento’s Geoff Petrie would have made the top three a few years ago, but right now it’s unclear which way the franchise is going; Denver’s Kiki Vandeweghe is a free agent after this year and will be highly sought after because of his success rapidly rebuilding the Nuggets; Jerry West is of course the Godfather of any top GM list (well, ok, maybe that’s Red Auerbach, but West is up there); but the hardest GM to leave off was Dallas’s father-son tandem. From taking a unknown German, to selecting Josh Howard and trading for Jason Terry, Don and Donnie Walsh have shown the Knicks that spending millions above the salary cap can actually field a winner, if done properly. Only giving Erik Dampier the money they deemed too rich for MVP Steve Nash keeps them out of the top three.

3) Jerry and Brian Colangelo, Phoenix Suns – Another father son combo, Jerry’s been in charge of the Suns for so long that you can champion his moves all the way back to the eighties --- the only blemish on his resume is the Suns failure to win a championship --- but these past two seasons have shown that he generously passed is gifts down the generational line. Brian is on an incredible run, first he had the foresight to hire a coach whose primary experience came not as an NBA assistant, not as an NBA player, not as a college coach, but as a coach in the Italian league. A coach who had a vision for up tempo, team oriented basketball. He drafted Amare Stoudemire with the ninth pick in the 2002 draft and while that seems like a no brainer, at the time he was criticized for passing on Caron Butler, Jared Jeffries, and Melvin Ely (and we can see how mercurial drafting is…). After watching a guard dominant team hoist too many shots, Colangelo tore it all down in a couple of brilliant trades (primarily with the Knicks’ newly hired Isaiah Thomas, hhmmm, coincidence?) and used the cap space to add Steve Nash and Quentin Richardson. 62 wins later, he parlays Richardson’s seemingly great season into Kurt Thomas, and hoodwinks the Hawks into giving him two draft picks and Boris Diaw for the right to significantly overpay Joe Johnson. One of those two picks will originate from the Lakers and thus be in or near the 20s this year, which all well and good, but the other is the Hawks’ own pick, lottery protected this year, top three protected next year, and unprotected in 2008. Which means that Joe Johnson could theoretically net the Suns, Diaw, some decent bench guy, and Greg Oden. And lets be clear, Diaw would not be having the season he is with just any team, but identifying the worst player on the worst team in the league as a potential game changer is how you get to be one of top three GM’s in the game. All the Colangelo’s are missing is that championship.

2) Greg Popovich and R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs – Buford is technically the GM, but this is a tandem and they work very well together, mining the entire globe to take little known future superstars. Yes, they lucked into winning the 1997 lottery, but three championships with three entirely different rosters based around Tim Duncan show that they have not anything for granted. They understand everyone’s value to the team, rarely get themselves stuck with a contract they don’t want (Rasho Nesterovic being the large exception), and find absolute gems throughout the draft. Every single team passed on Tony Parker, every single team passed TWICE on Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen was on the verge of being out of basketball before they plucked him up. The Spurs won the Michael Finely derby this offseason because of the reputation of the men at the top.

1) Joe Dumars, Detroit Pistons – The best, the absolute best. When Dumars fired former coach of the Rick Carlisle after his second straight 50 win season I didn’t just question, I chastised, but a championship the next season under Larry Brown showed that Dumars knew how to make the hard, correct choice. Each and every member of the famed starting five was brought in under Dumars: Ben Wallace in a sign and trade for Grant Hill, Chauncey Billups as a free agent from Minnesota, Richard Hamilton in a trade for Jerry Stackhouse, Tayshaun Prince as the 23rd pick in the 2002 draft, and Rasheed Wallace in a swap of junk with the Atlanta Hawks. Antonio McDyess has been a perfect sixth man, as was Mike James before him. The only complaint of his reign was the selection of Darko Millic over Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh, but two caveats should be mentioned in regards to Darko: 1) chemistry is a fickle thing, who knows how the addition of one of those stars would have affected the Pistons championship season. 2) Dumars’ wasn’t alone with the Darko pick, every GM in the NBA had him rated closely behind LeBron James. And, despite never playing, Darko still has considerable value around the league, so the pick wasn’t a total bust.

The Worst of the Pack – It’s hard to know exactly what Danny Ainge is doing in Boston and two years from now it might look great, but right now it stinks; Billy King’s Chris Webber trade has pretty much destroyed any roster flexibility for the Philadelphia 76ers, they can’t trade Iverson, but the AI-Webber core is barely .500; Seattle’s Rick Sund didn’t give enough credit to coach Nate McMillan and has already had to fire McMillan’s successor. Perhaps worse, he signed three players to the one year tender, which makes them virtually untradable. So now that the team needs a shake up, Flip Murray, Reggie Evans, and Vladimir Radmanovic have veto rights (and subsequently lose their Bird rights). Chris Mullin made one great trade, and has a couple solid draft choices (although that Mike Dunleavy pick’s really holding them back), but the exorbitant deals he gave to Derek Fisher, Adonal Foyle, and Dunleavy are crippling this sad sack franchise. If he hadn’t given Dunleavy the unnecessary (and exorbitant) new contract, Ron Artest is likely leading the Warriors to the playoffs; And then there is Portland’s John Nash, for god sake Nash, if New York is dumb enough to give an expiring contract for that terrible deal you gave Theo Ratliff, then quite trying to purge David Lee as well and make the trade (editors note: they already squandered the opportunity, the Knicks expiring deal went to Orlando instead. For shame, for shame).

3) Kevin McHale, Minnesota Timberwolves – The worst part, is that for the longest time I confused McHale the great player with McHale the great executive. He was a great player, he is not a great executive. Certainly a decade ago he deserved credit for being the first to take an extremely gifted high schooler, but who has he put around Kevin Garnett? It’s been ten years now and the best player to have on the court with KG was allowed to walk away for a 6 million per year deal to… Detroit. He lost four years of first round draft picks because of an under the table deal (idiotically put into writing) for Joe Smith. Losing four first round draft picks in an under the table deal for KG would be one thing, but for Joe Smith, come on. McHale gave long term contracts to: Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Marko Jaric, and Mark Madsen, and worse he has somehow relegated Garnett’s prime to a vain attempt to finish 8th. I like the Szczerbiak trade, but it might be too little too late for the T-Wolves to keep Garnett, and it’s certainly too little too late to keep McHale off this list.

2) Billy Knight, Atlanta Hawks – There’s a nice symmetry to this list, the guys at the top are there almost to a tee because of one great deal in which they stole the lunch money from the losers down here at the bottom. In Knight’s case, it’s because he sold the house to Jerry Colangelo for Joe Johnson. I hate flogging this dead horse, because it makes it seem like I don’t like Johnson’s game, when in fact I love it, but he just isn’t worth 12 million plus a year. Worse is trading him for two draft picks and a player who then produces just as well as him for the other team (Johnson’s PER last year – 15.18, Diaw’s PER this year – 16.06). That Phoenix will get a top 5 draft pick from Atlanta sometime in the next three years is mind numbing (and could be the thing which propels Colangelo to the top of the list in three years time). Worse still for the Hawks, in this years draft the team passed on point guard Chris Paul whom they desperately needed. Their roster is top heavy with swingmen, but light on either power players or points and they’ve been so inept that all their cap space has been snubbed by everyone except Johnson.

1) Isaiah Thomas, New York Knicks – Does anyone else find it curious that the NBA’s best GM and it’s worst GM formed one of the NBA’s all time best backcourts? Maybe Isaiah should try hitting up Dumars for some suggestions, or maybe he should realize that team construction is just not his thing (this is, after all, attempt number two). Whatever the case, if we forget for a minute his off court troubles (and given the early stages of the allegations I’m inclined to wait before passing judgment), Isaiah is hands down the NBA’s worst GM. Take last weeks trade with the Raptors interim GM, essentially Isaiah paid 34 million (the difference in Jalen Rose’s final contract year versus Antonio Davis’s expiring contract plus the luxury tax implications) for the Denver Nugget’s first round draft pick (likely 22nd). Yes, they get an extra year of Rose, but this is a player whom Knicks’ coach Larry Brown practically glued to the bench when they were together in Indiana. The Knicks’ payroll now sits at 126 million, before luxury tax, and that’s for a last place team. There is no financial relief in sight and because he gave Chicago New York’s first round pick this year (and the option to swap next year), there wont be an influx of young talent either. Give Isaiah the chance to swap an expiring contract for average, overpaid players with long term contracts and you’ve got a deal.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Bye Bye Babs...

(Editors Note: This was written a month ago, or whenever the heck Rob Babcock was fired, but Achanceyougottatake Sports' lazy editor, no names mentioned here... cough(jason)cough... couldn't bother to read through it until now... shameful, shameful, but what do we expect from the son of a bald man?)

And just like that it was over. The angst ridden, contentious, error stricken Rob Babcock era came to an abrupt, but merciful conclusion. Horribly unpopular amongst fans, media, and --- most importantly --- the coach he hired, Babcock was finally seen as hindering the Raptors’ progress. The proverbial straw which broke the camel’s back, came when Babcock recalled Pape Sow from the development league without first consulting coach Sam Mitchell. Of course, failing to consult Mitchell shouldn’t be surprising, given that Babcock and his coach rarely spoke any longer, but when the always verbose Mitchell took the discussion to the media, it became another black eye for a franchise in disarray. While ultimately blame for the Raptors current state rests with nobody more than Raptors’ President Richard Peddie (who hired Babcock for his youthful verve and then fired him for his lack of experience), Babcock was canned because he failed miserably in each segment of his job.

The Draft – Less than a month on the job, Babcock went to his first draft intent upon filling what he had identified as the Raptors largest hole. Unfortunately, their biggest hole is also the biggest hole for every team except Miami, Houston, and Detroit. Simply put, skilled pivots are harder to find than quarters on laundry day, which means teams get desperate for bigs and do crazy things like give Mark Blount long, rich contracts, but if you draft a guy with the 7th pick whom nobody else ranked above 20th, well he’d better provide something, anything. Instead, Rafael Araujo has posted numbers which even my Grandma could post. His Player Efficiency Rating this year is 4.26, which considering the league average is 15, looks kind of bad. In fact, it is the worst PER of any player who has started the majority of his teams games, but start he did. Repeatedly. Because Babcock had used (some might say wasted) such a high pick on Araujo, it became imperative that the Raptors get some value from him, so he started 30 of 38 games, and in all that time he has done little to justify a non roster training camp invitation, let alone an actual starting spot.

Babcock’s draft errors compounded this year, when he used that same 7th slot to select mercurial UConn forward Charlie Villaneuva. While the sweet shooting big man has been one of the league’s better rookies the importance of the fact that he plays the same position as Toronto’s sole star player cannot be overstated. Now, in the 7th spot there weren’t too many players better for the Raptors than Villaneuva, but Toronto had the chance to package that 7th pick, along with their 16th (used on Joey Graham) to the Hawks for the 2nd pick. Babcock, believed that the Raptors had too many holes to fill to get rid of two first round picks. Big mistake, HUGE. That second pick could have been point guard Chris Paul. Basketball isn’t football, there aren’t 60 roster spots where two good players and far more important than one great player. Villaneuva will be good, but Paul is already standing on the precipice of stardom. Paired with Bosh, the Raptors would have had their own tantalizing version of Nash - Stoudemire east.

Free Agency – Babcock’s second mistake actually was salvaged in perhaps the best move of his tenure, but before trading him for Mike James, the 36 million six year contract given to Rafer Alston looked terrible. Alston is certainly talented, but a free lancing, erratic street ball legend, is bound to clash with every professional coach he plays for, and given that the Babcock’s coach is particularly happy to oblige the media with a salacious quote, a year of public feuds between Alston, Mitchell, and Babcock was inevitable.

Getting Mike James from the Rockets (does Len Dawson not realize that his coach is Jeff Van Gundy?) was a mild stroke of genius, but given Babcock’s other free agent miscue, might ironically have sped up his inevitable dismissal. Last year --- perhaps gun shy after getting fleeced by Rod Thorn in the Vince Carter trade (see below) --- Babcock might have been leery of getting burned, or maybe he just didn’t think it necessary, but his myopic failure to move pending free agent Donyell Marshal hurt the franchise. It isn’t as though Marshal would have brought back Dwayne Wade, but he was a valued piece for contending teams, he was obviously leaving as a free agent, and the Raptors were clearly going nowhere. With Mike James having a career year, the opt out clause in his contract, and his apparent apathy towards playing in Canada he should probably be moved. Given Babcock’s botching of Marshal, Raptors’ management likely decided he shouldn’t be the man to make (or not make) that move.

Trades – Of course the move that will haunt Babcock for the rest of his career, and hurt his chances of getting another GM job, was the Carter trade. Vince had to go and trading superstars is notoriously hard, but here’s what Babcock didn’t get in return: Cap Space – actually, the Raptors ended up paying Alonzo Mourning 8 million to NEVER play for them; Starters – forget getting a player of Vince’s quality (given the way Vince was cakewalking through games, none were available), but Babcock didn’t even get a starting player in return. Eric and Aaron Williams are good role players (maybe), but this year they’ve started 4 of the 24 combined games they’ve played. They each have more DND – CD (Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision) than starts; Lottery Picks – Babcock apparently took this deal over one for Shareef Abdur Rahim’s expiring contract because it contained two draft picks, but the first pick was Philadelphia’s from last year (16th) and the second is Denver’s from this year (likely in the 20’s). Given how productive most players are when selected outside the lottery, Babcock’s draft picks are maybe worth one starter. Vince has miraculously recovered his all star form in New Jersey, Alonzo is giving Shaq breathers in Miami, Eric and Aaron Williams are pulling splinters out of there butts and all Toronto really has is Joey Graham, who in a few years might be a good rotation player, and the Nuggets pick in a generally uninspiring draft. Wow.

Hiring – In their minor power struggle, it seems as though Sam Mitchell beat out Babcock, which is ironic, because Mitchell’s hiring was a mistake even before their relationship became dependent on blaming one another for the team’s decrepit state. Right now Mitchell seems to have the support of Alan Embry, who as an adviser to Peddie has stepped into the interim GM job, but Mitchell’s poor record with his players and worse record in the standings make it a certainty that whomever is hired at season’s end will go looking for a new coach. Hiring the wrong guy is bad enough, but when their relationship turned bad and Mitchell was chosen to finish the year over Babcock, that must have hurt.

Looking Forward – The Raptors could have a young nucleus of Bosh, Chris Paul, and Andre Igoudala (chosen directly after Araujo in the 2004 draft), each an up tempo player, happy to play team oriented basketball. They could be in a better cap position, and they could be better coached. Still, Embry has moved quickly to refocus the franchise. Getting two second rounders for Aaron Williams is good if unexciting, and getting Jalen Rose off the books for that pick acquired in the Vince Carter deal actually makes the Vince deal a little --- not much --- but a little bit better. Moving forward they need to find an experienced GM, with Denver’s Kiki Vandeweghe’s at the front of the list. Obviously the new GM will decide what to do about the coaching, for now Mitchell seems safe, but in the offseason I would make a serious pitch towards Phoenix assistant Marc Ivaroni. His pedigree is impeccable and he favors the fast paced, team oriented style of play which puts bottoms in seats. They need to get something valuable for Mike James, or in a best case scenario convince him that playing with an unselfish superstar for another 3 years would be the best thing for his career. They also should move Eric Williams, even if it’s just for the cap space and a 2nd round pick. Finally, they need to find a big body to put beside Bosh, but lets be clear about this, just because they will be flush with cash, doesn’t necessitate that they HAVE to spend the money. Nene would be a good fit, but at eight million per, not ten and definitely not eleven. It’s a weak free agent year and if they over spend trying to get rid of their cap space (think Atlanta Hawks and Joe Johnson) then they will once again be in trouble, only without Rob Babcock to take the fall.