Six Months Later and I'm Still an Idiot...

Well, it’s over. Finished. Done. Six months later, hundreds of pitchers, thousands of at bats, some horrible blunders, and 100 odd victories by the Yankees, actually only 97, but who’s counting, well beside MLB, thousands of baseball websites, every newspaper, a million MLB fans in New York and me… This seems like as good a time as any (and certainly better than a month ago) to review my pre-season predictions and see how things really played out. This is really a big exercise in contrition, because there is no other way to look at this than to admit every stinking thing I wrote earlier in the year was fraught with the utmost stupidity. I’m an idiot and lets see how…

AL East – Ok, I actually have to score some points here, no not for predicting that the Yanks would win the division (that’s a bit like saying that my Dad will get out of bed bald), but for knowing that the Jays would break the Red Sox hegemony over second. Unfortunately second place, 87 wins and $1.50 will get you a Lobster Dinner, but only on Mondays and only at the Rugby Club (all of which is neither here nor there). Despite finishing second I cannot shake the sensation that their season was a disappointment.

AL Central – Like every other chubby dude with a typewriter, I missed the boat on the Tigers. In my notes I actually had them improving, but into the wonderful realm of .500, not .600. I was not alone on this, I don’t feel bad… I don’t, really. Ok, maybe a little. The Tribe killed me, but I did say that they wouldn’t be as good as last year, and the Twins hitters have matched “the dominance of their young hurlers.” At least to some degree. The White Sox, well… 20 of the 25 guys on the roster were as good or better, unfortunately those other 5 were their starters, and well, starters are kind of important aren’t they?

AL West – The A’s, the A’s, the A’s… I bet you thought I was crazy at the end of May, when the A’s where an anemic 24-29 and I am… crazy like a fox!

AL Wild Card – Or just plain crazy like a donkey (which is a polite way of calling myself an @$$). Ok, so maybe the Jays didn’t win the AL Wild Card, forget the AL, who cares about the AL, look at my NL Wild Card choice (“what’s that Honey, I picked who? Mil-what the H*** was I thinking… Sigh…”) . Actually, if you read what I wrote for each team, it’s pretty spot on and I did have the Twins second, that counts for something doesn’t it? Please, come on, throw me a bone here people I’m drowning… (“no Honey, I don’t know how exactly a bone is supposed to save me from drowning”).

AL ROY:
Prediction: Jonathan Papelbon – No shame here, the kid was awesome, frickin’ awesome.
Reality: Until August, this thing was a three horse race with Papelbon, Justin Verlander, and Francisco Liriano lapping the rest of the field. Then Paps and Liriano hurt themselves and Verlander won almost through default. Incredibly deserving, but a bit of a let down after the first four months.

AL MOY:
Prediction: John Gibbons – I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. It isn’t that I’m wrong, it’s that I’m soooo wrong. Let me see, Gibbons tried to fight one of his position players, and got him kicked off the team (admittedly Hillenbrand’s an ass, but still), then he actually succeeded in fighting one of his pitchers (and had his nose broken by Ted Lilly, who decidedly isn’t an ass)… was he responsible for all the injuries? No, but I still think he’s a swaggering Texan who micromanages a little too much.
Reality: It’s a two horse race. Ron Gardenhire and Jim Leyland. Both have done exceptional jobs and you cannot really go wrong either way. I’d vote for Gardenhire, because his team actually won the division, but given the surprise of what the Tigers’ season, I think Leyland wins. Voters like surprises, whatever.

AL Cy Young:
Prediction: Johan Santana – Yes, frickin’ eh! Score one for the good guy! (“Yes Honey, I AM the good guy… What do you mean says who?).
Reality: Triple Crown (and yes I know the pitching version is less flashy than the hitting one, but really both are equally irrelevant), acknowledged best pitcher in baseball, should have won last year. Yup lock it up and send it over to Johan, it’s his.

AL MVP:
Prediction: Paul Konerko – Well Konerko didn’t have a bad season, but he wouldn’t even be the MVP on his own team, actually he likely isn’t even second.
Reality: There is no obvious choice here, Travis Hafner --- believe it or not --- was the best hitter, David Oritz is still viewed as the most clutch (most clutch? Clutchest? Clutcherirest, hey we’re just making stuff up over here…), Jermaine Dye and Justin Morneau both have flashy stat lines in the Triple Crown categories, but this award is really all about two players: Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer. Both players play premier positions for teams headed to the postseason, both play on teams loaded with talent (while Jeter’s Yankees have all those hitters, it’s actually Mauer who has two teammates joining him in my MVP top ten), and both are atop the league in batting average. Jeter, who is at once the most overrated and one of the most underrated players in baseball leads the AL in win shares with 33, Mauer is second with 31. It’s in VORP that Jeter gets some real separation, leading Mauer by 12.5 points. It’s close, but the nod here goes to the Yankee captain.

NL East – I’d like to think I did the right thing by giving the Braves the benefit of the doubt, but somehow I don’t think you’ll see it that way. Still, I think that what I wrote summed things up fairly well, and that minor oversight of picking the 79-83 win Braves should be forgiven…

NL Central – Remember last year when the NL West was pathetic (and no, it isn’t much better now), well welcome to the central, two years ago it had three strong teams, but then St. Louis became a bit cheap, the Astros forgot that you need hitters as well as pitchers, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs reverted back into… the Cubs. I should be able to take some joy from getting something right here, but I don’t… the whole thing is too ugly.

NL West – The West was again pretty crappy and the Padres once again won the war of craptrition, that’s really all I have to say about that.

NL Wild Card – OK, in my defense I did write, “If Ben Sheets can make 30 starts for the Brewers, then they will surprise a lot of people who missed their success from last year.” He didn’t, they didn’t can we just forget the whole thing? No? Hhmph…

NL ROY:
Prediction: Ryan Zimmerman – With over 100 RBIs, Zimmerman has come through for me in a year packed with rookies. With a little luck he might even win the thing, but in the interests of full disclosure, I have to admit that he’s third on my ballot, behind Dan Uggla and…
Reality: Hanley Ramirez, Florida’s young shortstop, was the best of a plethora of choices. No kidding, a plethora. I had 14 guys under consideration, fourteen. That’s insane. I’d guess that Zimmerman will win, because voters LOVE RBIs, but Ramirez, with a VORP of 55.0 and 23 Win Shares, was the best and should win.

NL MOY:
Prediction: Ned Yost – Damn, will this Brewers thing not leave me alone…
Reality: Congratulations Joe Girardi, now that you’ve been named NL Manager of the Year, what are you going to do next? Hand out resumes? Try the Cubs, I hear they’re hiring…

NL Cy Young:
Prediction: Jake Peavy – Yes, the smart money is on Jake Peavy, well at least the smartass money, but that’s practically the same things, isn’t it?
Reality: Arizona’s Brandon Webb narrowly beats out Chris Carpenter, with Roy Oswalt a rapidly closing third. So I missed the man at the top, I nailed the second and third, come on, give me some “dap” you know you want to…

NL MVP:
Prediction: Albert Pujols – Here’s what I wrote: ‘Baring major injury, I’m just going to write down Albert Pujols’ name for this award every year for the next decade, and more often than not I’m going to be right --- he’s just that good.’
Reality: And guess what, he is… A stupidly good start has become lost in all of Ryan Howard’s home runs, but it is Pujols who leads the Majors in VORP (86.6) and Win Shares (39). Yes, the late season collapse looks ugly, but only the Mets were good in the N.L. this year (and then only sometimes), everybody else was just fighting to keep their heads above .500. Without Phat Al, the Cards are sinking to the bottom, like a mob hit in the Hudson.

Ok kids, that’s it for my yearly effort in contrition (see Honey, I can admit I’m wrong…). Be sure to check back tomorrow to see my playoff previews and the first in my series of best 2006 teams.