New Years Eve in the NBA

As the world prepares to count down from ten, pop champagne, and plant a kiss on a loved one, it’s time for Achanceyougottatake Sports to take a brutally honest look at life, direction, expectations, and ascertain this year’s New Years Resolutions… For the NBA (what, you didn’t think I was going to prescribe any resolutions for myself? If I perfected myself, what would I replace my source of self deprecating humor with?). The NBA season is virtually at the first trimester and that makes it a perfect time for some not quite “self” examination.

Isaiah Thomas, Billy Knight and Rob Babcock should each resolve to refrain from giving away talent to other teams in exchange for the benefit of overpaying players. Of course, with the trade deadline soon to arrive, I imagine that each is currently cooking up a creative way to make their team drastically worse (although it’s tough to imagine how Isaiah can top the Eddy Curry trade). Ron Artest should resolve to refrain from embarrassing himself, his family, his team, or the NBA for an entire season (the benefits of which might once have been all-star teams, defensive player of the year awards, and even an NBA championship). Marcus Camby, realizing that he’s on the verge of having the type of season scouts predicted when he was selected 2nd in 1996, should resolve to injure himself at the earliest possible point (what’s that? His presumed sprained finger is actually broken, he’s having pins put in and his return is unknown… see, now that’s dedication to New Year’s resolutions people!). Stevie Nash should resolve to trim the hair out of his eyes, which might allow him to trim his league leading four turnovers a game. Grant Hill should resolve to stay healthy for the rest of the year, because he’s a classy guy and I love seeing him on the court (not to mention that with him Orlando might be a playoff team). Stephon Marbury and Larry Brown should resolve to hold hands and sing Kumbaya before every game,. Kobe Bryant should resolve to pass more, of course the 11 other stiffs on that team should probably resolve to pass it back to him, at least occasionally. Chris Bosh has become the league’s best player on a really, really, really bad team, so he should resolve to say all the right things about staying and finishing his career with one team, while really thinking, ‘ok, if Babcock gave up Air Canada for the chance to pay Alonzo Mourning 10 million to play for Miami, then he’d almost certainly trade me to LA for Kwame Brown, some Laker girl, and a signed picture of Kobe Bryant…” Oh, who are we kidding, this is Babcock, he’d probably settle for a signed picture of Kwame Brown, some Laker girl, and a couple of those big Mickey Mouse ears you get at Disney Land. The Clippers should resolve to trade Corey Maggette, maybe not for Artest like everyone keeps suggesting, but for a solid defensive presence, and some active bodies for the bench. On the other hand, the Warriors should resolve to send whatever Indiana wants for that bad boy of basketball. With Ronny, the Warriors might catch the fast paced Suns for the Pacific division crown and finally give Big Cuz and the rest of their beleaguered fans something to cheer about. Of course, Artest also might start a riot which would terrorize the streets of Oakland, where my beloved godmother resides… hhmmm… Ok, scratch all of that, the Warriors should resolve to play Mike Dunleavy more, narrowly miss out on the playoffs despite the exceptional play of Baron Davis and Jason Richardson and give their fans one more disappointment in a series of mounting disappointments (something those who support me are well versed in). David Stern should resolve to worry less about how players dress and more about how to hype a team other than the Lakers. Detroit should resolve to play Darko for 15 minutes a game, if for no other reason than because they’ve had a phenomenal run of good health from their famed starting five, eventually it will end and the Pistons will need somebody else to step up and produce. The entire Northwest division should resolve to win a few more games, and the entire Central division should resolve to let some other teams win some games. Kobe should resolve to hate Shaq a little less and Shaq should resolve to hate Kobe a little less, but most of all, the entire NBA should resolve to wear Stockton-esque length shorts (the way Jermaine O’Neal recently did) every Friday. It could be an NBA twist on casual day, called “really awkward looking booty shorts day…”

Looking Forward:

Thus far, the almost perfect Pistons and the not quite healthy Spurs have appeared head and shoulders above everybody else, Dallas has separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but to me the most impressive team has been the Phoenix Suns, who right now would take the 2nd seed in their conference, despite not having Leandro Barbossa, Brian Grant, oh yeah and that Amare Stoudemire kid. No Stoudemire, appears to be no problem for reigning coach of the year Mike D’Anotni and MVP Steve Nash. I expected the Suns to position themselves to make a run for the division once Amare returned, but to be only four games back of the Spurs is exceptional. I’m still not convinced that they beat the Spurs in a seven game series, but once Amare returns they'll be better than last year's dynamo. Dallas, despite being the second best team in the conference, is rewarded with a tough first round matchup against Memphis, and a second round tilt with the Spurs, which seems unfair, but thems the breaks. In the West, I think Dallas, the Spurs, Phoenix and the Lakers (largely through the will power and experience of Kobe and Big Chief Triangle) make the second round. In the East, everything is about how good the Pistons are, how bad the Knicks are, and that kid who was deemed King. The Cavs look good, but they still do not play enough defense to really challenge the conferences big boys. The Heat, back under the slick Pat Riley will certainly make themselves known, but I still maintain that they added too many parts in the offseason and would be wise to whittle them down (in other words, trade Antoine Walker). The real wild card, of course, is Indiana. What can they recoup for Artest, will Carlisle open up the offence, is Jermaine O’Neal really the man to lead them? I think the season is slipping away for the Pacers, but they are a factor all the same. Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, and New Jersey look like second round teams (especially if the Nets can pry Chris Wilcox off of the Clippers bench).

All of which leads to my five fearless predictions:

1) LeBron James wins his first of 8,243 MVP awards, but his pursuit of the NBA scoring title actually makes him slightly less productive than he could be.

2) Rob Babcock losses his mind and starts ejecting fans from the arena who hold signs calling for his dismissal. What, that already happened? Oh, hhmmm… well, smart move by Babcock, he doesn’t want Raptor ownership seeing a random sign in the crowd and having a prescient moment in which they realize he’s the NBA’s worst GM, well except of course for…

3) Despite another terrible trade by uber GM Isaiah Tomas (come on, you known it’s inevitable), the New York Knicks get a little better, but still produce Larry Brown’s worst season. Of course, because of the genius of Isaiah Thomas, they then give the Bulls a top five draft pick.

4) Nobody gets traded until the Pacers decide what to do with Artes; somehow he goes to LA, where the triangle confounds him, but Phil Jackson soothes over his eccentric ways by sagely selecting a book to “open his mind,” thus Dennis Rodman sells another copy of 'Bad As I Wanna Be'.

5) Detroit doesn’t win 70 games and Tim Duncan’s feet never actually heal, yet still those two teams use superior fundamentals to box everyone else out and the season boils down to a repeat of last year’s final: Spurs –Pistons, which is bad news for David Stern, since nobody but purists watched last year. Still, those 37 people who watch this year will witness another exceptional seven games with San Antonio holding the trophy for the fourth time in eight years.

T'is the Season... for Baseball Musical Chairs.

If you were paying attention to the winter baseball meetings in Dallas, you realize that the three day event, normally a source of myriad deals and flashy money, witnessed a frenetic tornado of low level trade activity. While the plethora of trades were notable for the players not moved (Manny Ramirez), they also created a sense of overriding excitement for Hot Stove fans. For three solid days, it seemed as though if you blinked you missed a trade that might have lacked star power, but involved talented players who will help their new teams. The sheer number of moves, the utter inanity of some trades and the lack of big names made for a complicated process of ascertaining the winners and losers. Yet one thing is certain, the Toronto Blue Jays, led by level headed GM J.P. Ricciardi, came out in the winners pool. Ricciardi, who has been lambasted by the Toronto press since his arrival, is nearing fruition in his quest to remake the Jays from an expensive underachieving third place team. While the 102 million he splashed out for AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan seems outlandish and the contract length intimidating, the more important point is that the Jays were coming from a disadvantaged position and J.P. identified the players he was interested in and aggressively pursued them. While the fifth year to each was questionable, the money was exactly in line with the market. Both pitchers might bomb, but not because they were bad deals, but because that is the nature of sport (did anyone assume that Giambi’s deal would seem an albatross three years in?). Both are young and have live arms, if they work out then that contentious fifth year will come at a bargain price. Getting Overbay from Milwaukee was a coup simply because of the number of other teams interested in acquiring the sweet swinging lefty. Ricciardi’s only miss, was on San Diego free agent Brian Giles (although he likely would have come at the expense of Burnett), who chose to remain with his hometown Padres. Despite that, securing a number two pitcher and closer for the rest of the decade can is admirable, as is adding a hitter of Overbay’s quality. The offseason is not yet a complete success, nor is J.P. finished. The Jays need another impact bat --- for all his strengths, Overbay doesn’t stroke many home runs --- and they have an abundance of infielders that they need to pare. Looking at their depth chart, only three players are assured of their spot:

C – G. Zaun, G. Quiroz
1B – "L. Overbay", E. Hinske
2B – O. Hudson, A Hill
SS – "R. Adams"
3B – "C. Koskie"
OF – V. Wells, A. Rios. R. Johnson, F. Catalanotto
DH – S. Hillenbrand

Zaun and Quiroz will split time as Quiroz develops, Wells is unlikely to be moved, but as the Jays largest bargaining chip, his name tends to reappear on the rumor page from time to time. The biggest logjam is on the right side of the infield where the Jays would love somebody to take Eric Hinske’s contract off their hands, and they want to get Hill’s bat in the lineup, perhaps even at the expense of Hudson’s defense. The most likely addition is ex-Cub Nomar Garciappara who in an attempt to jump start his career has let teams know he is willing to play any position. Although they also will look to add a power bat through trade, with Texas’s Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench the most prominent names mentioned. For the offseason to truly be a success, J.P. needs to secure solid pine for the middle of his order, but thus far his offseason stands above the fray in a hazy winter.


Other (Early) Hot Stove Winners:

The Boston Red Sox – Theo who? An offseason which began with the very public exit of golden boy GM Theo Epstein has come full circle, and in a very rewarding fashion. The Sox essentially gave up a big token prospect and a backup catcher and in exchange they took back a 25 year old Yankee killer (don’t be naive enough to think that Josh Beckett’s World Series MVP over the Sox rival wasn’t a H – U – G – E factor in their acquiring him.), a gold glove third baseman who should recover from an down offensive year by playing 81 games at Fenway, and a top second baseman who plays for 3.75 million. Atlanta’s loss of Rafael Furcal meant that the Braves were willing to take Edgar Renteria (although 11 million is a lot of money to pay someone to play elsewhere), and before they could fill that hole, Miguel Tejada announces he wants to be moved to Boston (see more below). Then, after all of that success, word comes out of Boston, that the club is close to rehiring Epstein as the pseudo GM (or, the man with the power and no title). Like the Jays, the Sox are not finished, they still have to deal with Manny being Manny (although a potential Tejada deal is the closest they’ve come to attaining equal value for the mercurial slugger), and there’s that “idiot” center fielder and his arduous agent, but given the surprisingly quiet winter from the Bronx, the Sox have to be happy right now.

The Florida Marlins – Given the absurd roster purge that has taken place in Florida this offseason, this choice might seem anathema to most, but the moves of the Marlins cannot be taken out of context. The reality is that the Fish grossly underachieved last season (they were my pre-season World Series picks and I wasn’t alone) and that their stadium situation has made their situation in Miami untenable. The Marlins have been trying to build a new stadium since their inception, but any support they might have had from public funding has --- rightfully --- deteriorated as resources are delegated towards repairing hurricane damage. While south Florida should be a hot spot for baseball (it remains a great source of talent), the Marlins attendance has always been shaky and their inability to build a new stadium means that they will probably move within the next three years. The baseball revenue just is not the same for them as for other teams, and they needed to reduce their payroll. By trading Delgado, Beckett, Mike Lowell, Guillermo Mota, Paul LoDuca, Luis Castillo and Jaun Pierre, they lost their ace, set up man, and 5 members of their lineup, but they also shed 40 million in salaries and stockpiled young arms, which in case you haven’t noticed are baseball’s most valuable commodity. From the Mets alone they took three of the top four prospects. It wasn’t pretty and this season will be even uglier, but given the cost of pitching, young pitchers can be used to acquire anything in baseball, look for the Marlins to take a shortcut back to the top, only not in Florida.

Chicago White Sox – After their World Series win, I was skeptical about whether the Sox would even finish second in their division next season, but I must credit GM Kenny Williams for parlaying overrated center fielder, Aaron Rowand into Jim Thome and a lot of cash. Thome’s still expensive and if he doesn’t play he’ll be a Frank Thomas sized drain on the payroll, but the move to DH should help his ageing body and the move showed that Williams wasn’t content to wait for the pack to catch up. Keeping Paul Konerko from the Red Sox and Angels also is a success.

Losers:

A bunch of teams which looked good in October, but suddenly aren’t so glossy; the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Houston Rockets, and the St Louis Cardinals all looked good exiting last season, the Angels and Cards easily won their divisions and the Stros went to their first World Series, but each looks vulnerable so far this offseason. Anaheim still has not found a bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. They continue to be linked to Manny, but seem more likely to try finding protection from within, which will only work if they stop pretending Steve Finely and Darrin Erstad contribute. Houston declined arbitration to Roger Clemens, which might make fiscal sense given that they owe 80 million to 11 other players, but last year the big three (Clemens, Andy Petite, and Roy Oswalt) carried that team, and without Clemens the holes created by having such roster imbalance will quickly become apparent. For their part, the Cards still have Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, with Scott Rolen’s return from injury acting as an addition of sorts, but they have lost both corner outfielders, their second baseman, 105 innings of middle relief, and stalwart starter Matt Morris (likely). Despite moving into a new stadium (normally an excuse to increase payroll), Cards GM Walt Jocketty is working on a tight budget. They still will be favorites to win their division, but they no longer seem the class of the National League.

Baltimore Orioles – They swung and missed on Burnett, they swung and missed on Konerko, they lost their closer (Ryan), and even when they succeed (by overpaying for catcher Ramon Hernandez), the news is overshadowed by their superstar, shortstop Miguel Tejada, publicly demanding a trade. The worst part is that Tejada has a point, while Ricciardi and the Jays were acting decisively, the Orioles have once again been confused and disjointed, and in a division with Boston and the Yankees that will not get you anywhere but the bottom (well, ok, maybe not the bottom, but only because of those lovable Devil Rays). As ESPN writer Rob Neyer continues to point out, the problems in Baltimore come from Peter Angelos and since it’s incredibly difficult to fire the owner bird fans are in for another tough season.

To Soon to Tell:

New York Yankees – I’ll believe that they start Bubba Crosby in center when the season starts and he runs out there. So far the Evil Empire has been eerily quiet, reversing the 2B error of last season (when they let Miguel Cairo go and replaced him with Tony Womack) and replacing departed set-up man Tom Gordon with Kyle Farnsworth, but when you won 95 games last year and haven’t suffered large personnel losses, staying the course might be prudent. Still, look for some name to be added before pitchers report.

New York Mets – If you looked solely at the names and their production from last year, you would proclaim the Mets certain National League champions. Adding Delgado, LoDuca, and winning the Billy Wagner sweepstakes would seem to position them perfectly to take down the Braves, but something about the moves the Mets made remind me of a pertinent piece of advice from the game of Polo: avoid the steaming divet… I’m not really sure what that means, but the Mets moves remind me vaguely of the winter of 2001, when they “loaded up” on Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeremy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio, and Roger Cedeno and proceeded to finish 26.5 back of the Braves. I think they’ll likely be the NL favorites going into the season, but I wont be surprised to see them miss the playoffs, let alone go to the World Series.

The guys Garnett Should be Playing With...

Looking at the history of NBA champions, it’s easy to see that there is a clear outline for how to win an NBA championship. First, you need to start with a superstar, and not a superstar in the way that Steve Francis or Paul Pierce are superstars, but a truly gifted player who understands the subtleties of when to take over a game, and when to kick it out to Steve Kerr for the win. I think that at any given time in the NBA there are 4 possibly five players who fill that role: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant are those guys right now, with perhaps LeBron James (maybe another year or two of seasoning). Some would add Dirk Nowitzki and Jermaine O’Neal, but I think there are too many areas of their games which are just average (leadership primary among them). After choosing this superstar, you select an exceedingly good wingman, this player could be almost anyone else from the league’s “perceived” superstars (so, in theory it could be Francis or Pierce), however that player’s talents have to compliment your alpha star (the way Scottie Pippen complimented Jordan). Then you need a third star caliber player, usually, he is almost a superstar, but has holes in his game (the way Tony Parker is streaky, or Rodman couldn’t score). Finally, you complete your starting roster with two players who space the floor, defend well, and hopefully specialize in one aspect of the game (i.e., provide rebounding, above average defense, or knocking down the open J). This isn’t a hard fast rule, the Detroit Pistons have won 3 championships by putting 5 starters above average at their position on the floor, but that is less common than the above method. Obviously, since only 4 to 5 of these true “superstars” exist at any given time, very few teams actually have a chance to win a title in any given NBA season. Of course, this is why in 25 years only 7 different franchises have won championships (and the ’82 76ers are the only franchise during that stretch to win a single title). Usually when the iconic player comes along, everyone knows (LeBron in 2003, Duncan in 1997, Shaq in 1992), but sometimes the scouts miss them: Jordan went third, Garnett and Kobe were undervalued because they were high schoolers. Since iconic players are rarely traded, it means that for the most part, it’s the luck of the ping pong balls which determines whether your team will win a championship during any given generation of play (of course, every once in awhile you get a moronic decision like Jerry Buss trading Shaq, but you really cannot count on another owner having a complete lobotomy and returning to work the next day). The trick, is not blowing it once you find yourself bequeathed with basketball genius. This is the challenge facing Cleveland right now, are they making the right roster choices to put those two and three stars around LeBron for when he blossoms, or are they going to squander a good opportunity and weigh him down with deadweight the way Kevin McHale has surrounded Garnett with Mark Madsen, Joe Smith, and Troy Hudson.

Obviously there’s no point putting together a “fantasy’ team if you do not believe it can compete for championships, so when given the task of selecting a salary compliant team, I knew I needed one of my iconic players. Kobe was the first I rejected, frankly simply because I don’t like him. Shaq and LeBron are heading in the opposite directions. Shaq can lead a team to a championship this year, but soon he will have to hand off the alpha male title to Wade (who along with Amare Stoudemire would be my future choices to join that iconic group) and LeBron will be the top dog for a long time, but since he has yet to reach the playoffs we need baby steps. All of which leaves Duncan and Garnett. Either would be fine, because Garnett is the NBA’s best player, while Duncan is a three time playoff MVP. I’d select Garnett, partly because Duncan is a little older and his body has become less reliable (he’s only played 66 and 69 games the last two years), but mostly because Duncan has already won three championships, which makes Garnett a clean canvass or something asinine like that.

It would be easy to surround Garnett with young superstars like LeBron, Wade, Yao, or Dwight Howard, and given the NBA’s rookie pay scale it would make a lot of fiscal sense. However since Garnett’s team has only missed the playoffs once, it seems implausible that any team with him would have the opportunity for a top pick. As terrible as their roster is, Garnett is so good that the Wolves still went 44-38 last year and had only a 0.7% chance of winning the first pick. So I restricted myself when selecting players in their rookie contract to guys who were chosen in the 20s, believing that is near where my team would have been selecting and that we could have made minor trades to move up or down accordingly. The only exception to this rule is players who have been traded while in their rookie contract, because obviously they were available. For my number two I want someone who can take pressure off of Garnett late in the game, a scorer who brings defense, heady play, and leadership. When Manu Ginobili signed his 52 million, 6 year contract, a lot of pundits felt the Spurs overpaid, but then last year Ginobili joined that upper echelon of shooting guards and suddenly the 7.5 million he’s making this year looks like a steal. After him, I want a point guard, somebody who can make the team tick and wont fold under the pressure of bringing the ball up with the game on the line. Stevie Nash would be an obvious choice, but for four million less a year I’m going to take the slightly more acerbic --- but far better defensively --- Chauncey Billups. For all of the press about the Wallace’s in Detroit, Billups is the man that makes that team go. There’s a reason he won the NBA finals MVP, he steps up his game in the playoffs and takes (and more importantly makes) the big shots down the stretch. He might have been the best player in last year’s NBA finals and that includes Duncan and Ginobili. I would round out my starting roster with a young guy who is a rising star in the league. Tayshaun Prince was not selected until the 23rd pick in the 2002 draft, which is remarkable, because he brings an abundance of skills across the board (defense, rebounding, energy, and an improving, although bizarre jumper). Finally, I fill out my starters with the underrated Brendan Haywood. A solid defender and rebounder, Haywood would be the kind of center beside Garnett that Minnesota was looking for when they made the ill-advised decision to sign Michael Olowokwandi.

No team can compete in 82 games and then win 16 in the playoffs without a solid bench. When a coach glances down the pine he wants four factors: a steady pair of hands to protect the ball, a great shooter to knock down open treys in spot situations, a source of instant energy (often offence, but it could be diving for loose balls) to spark a lethargic team, and a defensive stopper. Given that skills in the NBA are expensive (particularly shooting), these attributes are best found amalgamated in a few players. My first player off the bench is the best bargain in basketball, Josh Howard. Howard defends well, scores, is an improving shooter and costs a pittance (873,830), remarkable given that he starts for economically the second worst roster in basketball. He needs to work on his turnovers and rebounding, but for under a million, he’s playing sooner than Christmas songs in November. Mike James is a shoot first point, but that’s fine, because he’s also savvy, experienced and reasonably priced. Caron Butler, Mike Sweetney, and Nenad Kristic all provide scoring, plus defense (Butler) and rebounding (Sweetney). It helps that each is gentle on my salary cap. I complete my bench with two recent draftees who wont produce abundantly, but should help occasionally, David Harrison and Salim Stoudemire.

All of which gives me:

C – B. Haywood, Wash (4,000,000)
PF – K. Garnett, Minn (18,000,000)
SF – T. Prince, Det (1,763,115)
SG – M. Ginobili, SA (7,425,000)
PG – C. Billups, Det (5,909,800)

G – M. James, Tor (3,410,000)
G – J. Howard, Dal (873,880)
G – S. Stoudemire, Atl (675,000)
F – C. Butler, Wash (2,448,714)
F – M. Sweetney, Chi (2,116,920)
F/C – N. Kristic, NJ (1,010,040)
C – D. Harrison, Ind (690,960)

Their total salary is 48,323,429 which comes in nicely under this year's 49.5 million salary cap. It also means the team has plenty of space before the luxury tax threshold (63 million) with which to resign its free agents (namely Prince, who recently signed a big extension with Detroit). I’d ask Mike D'Antoni to sit on the bench, because I'm impressed with how he's guided Phoenix "this" year, and given the age of the principle players, and their relative contract security, I’d expect him to bring home the title every year for the rest of the decade.