Why Do the Tea Leaves Keep Showing Those Damn Yankees...

Who would you rather face in the first round of the playoffs? The best team in the league, which sends out a lineup rivaling the Ruth-Gehrig led Murderers Row or would you prefer to play a good Oakland team, one with a solid quartet of starters, but with an anemic offence? Obviously you’d want to play the good team, not the potentially great one. Assuming that you intend to advance to the World Series, you have to beat the Yankees and that awesome assortment of hitters at some point, but the longer you can avoid it the better. If the Twins were going into the playoffs with Santana and Liriano pitching then maybe a five game series against the Yanks would benefit them, but they aren’t. So avoiding the Yanks is a team’s best chance of survival. That was the reward yesterday when the Twins beat the White Sox and the Tigers lost to the Royals. Congratulations Detroit, you’re going to the playoffs for the first time since the eighties and your reward? Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Posada, and Cano. Have fun, enjoy the comedy and remember to tip your waitress.

Of course winning isn’t strictly impossible, especially because the Yankee’s pitching leaves a lot to be desired, but given that their 1 through 9 contains two automatic hall of famers, three possible electees, and nine all stars, beating them wont be easy. Besides being studs, the lineup is also diverse, a complete mix: four righties, four lefties and a switch hitter. They alternate through the lineup, making them devastatingly hard to match up against. They have the highest OBP in the league, with guys like Damon, Abreu, and Giambi who break down the starting pitcher by showing patience verging on reticence. This gets the opposing manager picking up the bullpen phone earlier than most teams, which allows them to eat the weaker pitchers on an opposing team’s staff. So to beat them you need a pitcher who throws strikes, spotting the ball in places where the hitters wont punish you. And, almost more importantly, you need a very good bullpen that can be prepared to heave a heavier load.

For the American League contenders, any path to the World Series, seemingly involves shutting down that Yankee lineup. Clearly a daunting and possibly insurmountable task. Yet of all the teams in baseball, the three teams in Majors who might match up the best are actually Minnesota, Detroit, and Oakland, because they are the American League’s top three bullpens. Each of them also boasts good starting staffs, who could be great. Unfortunately, this task falls first to the Detroit Tigers, whose young pitchers will be put to the test in Yankee stadium, where they will have to deal with both the Yanks lineup and the circus atmosphere that is October baseball in the Bronx. Somewhat surprisingly they have forgotten man Nate Robertson slated to start game one and rookie sensation Justin Verlander will try to do the job in game two. The key to the series is Verlander, I’d expect Robertson to lose game one, because Chien Ming Wang is stupidly good at home (11-3, 3.03 ERA), so Verlander needs to steal game two from the Yankees, then the Tigers will look for old man Kenny Rogers and 23 year Jeremy Bonderman to win out at home. The Tigers were actually slightly better on the road then at home, but they cannot anticipate getting that advantage in the playoffs. Not to disparage Robertson, but he isn’t an unflappable ace to take the mound in the Bronx and win game five, so the Tigers best chance is to take the middle games. Too bad that seems unlikely, the Tigers have been stumbling, they are inadequate offensively, and their starters seem to have worn down over the past month. The Yanks get solid starts from Wang and Mussina, and knock Rogers out early to sweep.

Minnesota is hurt, although not decimated, by the injuries to Francisco Liriano and retiring local hero Brad Radke, but they have the best starter in baseball --- the superfluous Johan Santana --- the underrated Boof Bonser (4-1, 2.63 ERA in September), and the precocious Matt Garza. After those three, Radke, who on Thursday made his first start in a month and the erratic Carlos Silva, will be forced to give some meaningful innings, which they likely aren’t capable of. On the bright side for the Twins, their bullpen is the best in baseball, with a 2.91 team ERA out of the pen and a stellar 8.13 K/9. If the Twins get to the Championship round and face the Yanks, don’t be surprised to see Santana go three times. Of course, to get there the Twins will have to get past the Oakland A’s and their quartet of excellent starters. Barry Zito is the big name (and the one gunning for the big payday), but Danny Haren, Esteban Loaiza, and Joe Blanton are also completely capable of shutting down an opposing team. Then there is Rich Harden, who made two sublime rehab starts, before being shellacked by the Angels on the seasons final day. At his best, Harden is one of the three best pitchers in baseball. If he can be throwing at even 80%, then the A’s will be tough to beat. Both the Twins and the A’s have been playing excellent baseball, and both have underrated offences. The A’s have yet to escape the first round in the Billy Beane era and as much as I think this is the year to break that streak (after all, I did pick them to win the World Series in March), I cannot guess against Santana in a five game series. The key is Bonser, if he can get that game two win, then Santana wins the fifth game at home. If the A’s can shake the youngster then the Twins will be tempted to bring Santana in on short rest for game four and they’ll lose.

As much as I want to get excited by the N.L. playoffs, I cannot shake the feeling that they are the AAAA playoffs and whoever wins will be hard pressed to take even a game in the World Series (something which hasn’t been done since Josh Beckett beat the Yankees in game 6 of the 2003 Series). The Mets might have been able to push the AL champion, but without Pedro Martinez, their pitching staff consists of the 87 year old Orlando Hernandez, the 89 year old Tom Glavine, the 88 year old Steve Trachsel, and the 8 year old John Maine. Seriously. Hernandez is renowned for his post season heroics, but he’s “believed” to be 36 and is four years past his last great postseason. Glavine seems content to ignore father time, but even as a younger man, his finesse ways never played as strong in the playoffs, and Trachsel, well he’s Steve Trachsel, I mean seriously. Maine has pitched well since being called up, but he has 24 career starts in the majors. Without Pedro’s mastery, the Mets rotation is thin. Everybody has assumed for months that they’ll stroll into the World Series, but I’m not convinced that they can survive their first round opponent. The Dodgers have been Jeckyl and Hyde all year. Game one starter Derek Lowe is an experienced playoff performer. The Glavine – Greg Maddux game two match up is a great one for geriatrics and fans of the game alike, but the real key to the series is LA starter Hong-Chih Kuo. The Taiwanese youngster has an unimpressive 1-5 record, but he’s pitched much better in September (3.06 ERA) and he’s left handed. This matters, because the Mets potent offence seems to lose a little oomph against lefties, and by little I mean an anemic .730 OPS. The Mets are undone by an old pitching staff and by their inability to hit lefties.

The Cards did everything they could not to get into the playoffs, but since Houston dropped the ball after an improbable 9 game winning streak, the Cards will have to delay their golfing plans for another week. Still, in what has to be the least interesting series, I don’t expect a long delay for the Cards. Besides Albert Pujols, the Cards lineup has seemingly gone from robust to wimpy, which plays right into the Padres hand. With four great starters, the Pads could sweep, but somehow I’d guess Pujols will single handedly steal a game. Not enough to extend their season, but something.

In the ALCS, the Yankees and Twins go six, before the 1-9 of the Yankees order finally wears down the Twins pitching. In the NLCS the Dodgers better hitting is lost in the depths of two pitchers parks and the Padres take a grueling, intense, seven game series. For the World Series we’re treated to a repeat of the 1998 Series and just like then, the Yankees sweep. And believe me when I say that I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Twins, Padres, or A’s win. They always say that great pitching wins in the playoffs, but somehow I just cannot see the pitching being better than the Murderers Row of the 21st century.