Monday, May 21, 2007

No Champagne Supernova for the Suns this Year...

In the end, the Suns didn’t lose because of suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw, and they didn’t because of a cut that couldn’t be salved, but because for nine minutes bridging the end of the third and start of the fourth quarter, the Phoenix Suns, couldn’t make a shot. Yes, they were pooched by some ridiculous calls, but as Leandro Barbosa stood all alone on the three point line and clanged his shot of the back rim, it became apparent that the Suns were going to lose, not because of all the crap piled against them, but because they couldn’t do the single thing they are known for: the couldn’t make a basket. As Manu Ginobili and Michael Finely rained threes and Tony Parker dropped deep twos, the Suns looked discombobulated, confirming Mike D’Antoni’s contention that San Antonio plays together better, although perhaps not his contention that his Suns have more talent. And while I believed that Nash would stand up and drive them to victory, his efforts came too little to late. Down twenty with nine minutes left against the Spurs is not the time to attempt a comeback, but that was how bad things went for the Suns, so quickly, from up one with 6:47 remaining in the third, to down 20. In that time, Nash had two assist, one turnover, and no shots. He also sat out four and a half minutes, and I know that Nash runs at a frantic pace on old legs, but for four and a half minutes, while he was on the bench, the Suns’ season slipped away.

So where does Phoenix go from here? Did this loss prove that their system cannot beat the Spurs? Or did it merely show that this year, with luck, bloody noses, and the commissioners office against them, they couldn’t beat the Spurs. How do they go forward? With their payroll jumping headfirst into luxury tax zone, owner Robert Sarver has said he wants to remain beneath the tax threshold, which means that somebody has to be moved. Complicating that is that the Suns’ need to deepen their bench at the same time. They need to find a competent backup to give Nash some breathers (Barbosa’s obviously great, but he’s more of a two) and another live body or two for the rotation. Obviously Nash isn’t being moved, which means that either Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion will have to be moved if the Suns are going to escape the tax. Now perhaps Sarver, believing that they were jobbed this year, will give them one more year and pay the price, but if he doesn’t…

Rumor One:

The big rumor working the mill is that the Suns will try to package Marion and the pick that they get from the Hawks together, in an attempt to move up for Kevin Durant. Now, not only will this require the Suns getting the Hawks pick, a possibility, but nothing near a guarantee, but it would also involve someone actually wanting to give up the rights to Durant, which is possible but not probable. Even for Marion and the fourth pick, Durant is seen as such a unique and phenomenal talent that it’s unlikely a team would sacrifice his potential brilliance. The possibility of having the next “Jordan” is too great to pass up for most teams.

Rumor Two:

This one comes direct from Bill Simmons and plausibility wise, it’s actually pretty good. The Suns put Amare Stoudemire together with Marcus Banks and Eric Piatkowski (for money reasons) in a deal for Kevin Garnett. Maybe they also swap draft picks, or give Minnesota their pick from Cleveland, but while Garnett costs them slightly offensively, he certainly helps them with defense, rebounding, and neutralizing Tim Duncan. It makes sense for Minnesota, as Stoudemire is six years younger than Garnett and as close as they are ever going to come in terms of a straight up swap of talent. Will it happen? Well, probably not, because as Bill would likely note, it just makes too much sense for NBA GMs to consider…

Other options:

Denver might be looking to get out from beneath the contract of Marcus Camby, which would open the door a crack towards a deal with Phoenix. This wouldn’t help them financially, but they could move Thomas’ final year with a package of picks. It probably isn’t enough for Camby, but it’d be worth a shot to acquire a fleet shot blocking center who could start the break and still get down court in time to finish it at the rim.

Alternatively, the Suns could get crazy and make a play for Ron Artest, whom Sacramento will spend all summer trying to move. Although this would be lunacy, it also might be one of those gambles that pay off.

The Dream Scenario:

In a perfect storm type summer, the Suns could actually pull off both of the rumored moves, as they generally involve separate pieces. If say, Boston got the second pick, they could convince Danny Ainge that he’d be better off complementing Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson with Marion and Corey Brewer (drafted fourth), than just Durant, while simultaneously making the pitch for Garnett. Sure, it’s incredibly unlikely, but from a fantasy standpoint, the thought of the Suns breaking things up and re-tooling with both Durant and Garnett is pretty awesome. Pushed by Nash, the Suns’ new front court would be lethal, long on defense, capable of rebounding over anyone (remember that Durant averaged over 11 rebounds in college and rebounding numbers usually translate quite accurately from college to the pros), and of scoring from multiple spots on the floor. Of course this requires the NBA gods favoring the Suns tomorrow when the balls come out of the lottery, and it involves Ainge and Minnesota GM Kevin McHale being dumb enough to make the deals. Hhmmm… so maybe it isn’t such an impossibility after all.

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