Garnet, Gasol and the Running of the Bulls...

The post-Jerry Krause Chicago Bulls regime has been very methodical in re-making the roster into a tough, defensive oriented team with roster flexibility and tantalizing youngsters. It has been, by and large, an extremely successful rebuilding process. While Krause could never escape the looming presence of Michael Jordan, the current Bulls regime is almost never faced with comparisons to MJ, Phil, and Scottie. In part, that’s because it has now been almost a decade since they won that last title, in part because their GM was an integral part of three of those six titles, and in part because after five last place finishes in six years, they’ve made the playoffs two years running. What they’ve lacked however, and what they still lack, is that one tantalizing superstar talent. That one guy who can take over a game when nobody else is playing well, who can get tough baskets late in close contests, and who can draw questionable calls on the road. For that reason, despite the youngsters success, the Bulls roster has been subjected to never ending trade speculation. It must be a rare morning when Ben Gordon opens his paper and doesn’t see his name linked in a deal for someone. The most rampant (and seemingly, the most logical) rumors have always been for Minnesota’s Kevin Garnett, but in the past week, a potential trade for Memphis’ Pau Gasol has had rumor mongers frothing at the mouth.

Currently, the Bulls are 25-19 and 5th in the Eastern conference. If the season ended today, they’d have a tantalizing first round match up against the winner of the Atlantic division, a series in which the Bulls would have home court advantage and be heavy, heavy favorites. Of course, they’re also only a game back of leading the tight Eastern conference and, given their 2-9 start might be odds on favorites to ultimately don that dubious crown. So at what point do the Bulls say, ‘nope, we’re happy with what we have.’ It seems, that since they have so many assets, teams hold them over a barrel in demanding prospects. Gasol for PJ Brown’s expiring deal, Deng and Gordon? Unless you’re trading with the Knicks, there’s no precedence for such a bounty of talent in exchange for an all star. The Lakers only got Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant’s atrocious contract for Shaq. The Raptors even less for Vince Carter, and the Magic got Steve “No Longer the Franchise” Francis (who, naturally, they eventually shipped out to… the Knicks). Deng’s name was floated (along with Gordon) in the first rumored Gasol deals, but Deng’s shooting 52% from the floor, grabbing 6.5 rebounds and playing solid D. He’s scoring, shooting percentage and PER have increased every year he’s been in the league, so at what point do the Bulls say, ‘sorry Minnesota, you waited too long, you can have Tyrus Thomas, but Deng’s untouchable…’ And what of the Bulls other players, who should be available and who’s untouchable? Lets break down the roster, see who’s available, how much they could bring back, and ultimately, who’s on the Bulls wish list.

The Roster:

P.J. Brown – Brown’s expiring contract is obviously the central piece in any deal for a superstar. He wants out and the Bulls would happily move him.

Luol Deng – If he’s not untouchable, he should be. Deng’s still a baby (21) and in his third season might be a first time all star. He does everything: scores, rebounds, and defends. Last offseason I’d have given him up for Garnett, but now? Maybe.

Chris Duhon – The Bulls liked Duhon enough to match his contract offer from Toronto two years ago. They like his defense and ball handling enough to keep putting him in the starting lineup when Gordon struggles, but his woeful shooting has shunted him back to the bench and damaged his value.

Ben Gordon – The Bulls leading scorer is tricky. He was doing an awesome Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench to contribute 20 plus points every night. Now he’s back in the starting lineup and thus far has continued to consistently contribute. He can score from anywhere, but he doesn’t go to the line often and in the past has been inconsistent. I still believe that he could be had in the right deal, but he’s certainly making it harder for the Bulls to deal him.

Kirk Hinrich – He signed an extension to his rookie deal, which makes him difficult to trade for the next two years, plus he’s the personification of what Jim Paxson and Scott Skiles want from their team. He’s as close to untouchable as anyone on the roster.

Andres Nocioni – The Bulls play best with Nocioni at power forward opposite Deng, but his natural position is small forward. He’s a free agent after this year, which could be a deterrent to a team acquiring him, but he’s also a hard working, hustle player who shoots 40 percent from three. A player the Bulls would love to hold onto, but also a possible inclusion in any deal.

Thabo Sefolosha – The NBA’s first Swiss player has a tough defensive oriented attitude that the Bulls love, but obviously if they can get him into a deal instead of Gordon, then it’s au revoir, or… tschüs, or… ciao, or good bye in one of the 186 other languages spoken in Switzerland.

Tyrus Thomas – Like Gordon, Thomas is the main piece the Bulls could use to entice potential trade partners. He’s incredibly young, and offensively very raw, and thus only playing 9 minutes a game, but many draft experts felt he had the most upside of anyone in the 2006 draft.

Ben Wallace – With his massive contract, there are only a few teams who could acquire him, but despite the “headband” incident, Wallace is the man the Bulls brain trust want anchoring their team. He’s not going anywhere.

Others: Malik Allen and Mike Sweetney both have expiring contracts that could easily be added to match salaries in any deal, while Viktor Khrypya and Adrian Griffin are both pine players, who could be tossed into any trade.

What the Bulls Want:

There are five players out there who suit what the Bulls need and might be available. I’ll list them here, along with a reasonable offer the Bulls could make, in the order that Paxson and Skiles would like them, and a percentage of likelihood that a trade happens:

1) Kevin Garnett for P. Brown, T. Thomas, A. Nocioni, M. Allen, T. Sefolosha, and draft pick.
What, When Where, Why: At the draft, the Wolves could have recouped the number two pick (which the Bulls turned into Thomas), Deng, and Gordon for Garnett. The Wolves wanted to take one more crack with Garnett, which is fine and everything, but that’ll cost them Deng. Still, Garnett isn’t going anywhere until he demands it, which thus far he’s shown no proclivity to do… 15%.

2) Pau Gasol for Brown, Thomas, T. Sefolosha, and the pick.
WWWW: Right now the Icon, Jerry West, is fielding offers from everybody and their dog for Garnett (incidentally, Isaiah Thomas’ dog decided against bidding on Pau and instead tried to acquire Stromile Swift, Brian Cardinal, and Damon Stoudemire, for David Lee, but the salaries didn’t match up). Nobody can offer what the Bulls could, although I think this is the most the Bulls should offer. It’s a good deal for both teams. If the Grizzlies are going to acquiesce to Gasol’s trade request, this would give them massive cap space, two lottery picks in this draft, and two young pieces to add to Rudy Gay… 50%.

3) Paul Pierce for Brown, Gordon, Nocioni, and the pick.
WWWW: Why would Boston make this deal? It fully commits them to rebuilding, by giving them cap space and two more young pieces to add to Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Delonte West and the rest. While the Bulls first desire is a post player, Chicago essentially trades Gordon for Pierce, who right now does everything a little better than Ben. Why wouldn’t the Celtics make this deal, because they seem caught in a frightful state of indecision that will squander the best years of Pierce and leave them permanently fighting for the last playoff spot … 15%.

4) Jermaine O’Neal for Brown, Thomas, M. Sweetney, Allen, Sefolosha, and the pick.
WWWW: O’Neal’s defensive intensity would certainly fit with the Bulls, but he’s expensive and thus would require a lot of pieces. Not sure it’s worth it for Chicago, who would balk at paying O’Neal 18 million, when they have to start paying their youngsters soon. For their part, the Pacers, even if they decide to blow things up, wouldn’t want to trade Jermaine within the division… 10%.

5) Ray Allen for Brown, Sefolosha, C. Duhon, Sweetney, Allen, and the pick.
WWWW: Seattle is trapped in ownership uncertainty, which is handcuffing their management team, so any move to rebuild is unlikely, which, of course, is too bad given that they need to take action, lest they spend five years in the 33-38 win phase. Allen’s a stud, but he’s older and has never been known for his defense. Clearly of the guys on this list, he’s the bottom choice… 10%

What will happen?

I think the Bulls will make a deal for Gasol. They’ve seemingly been waiting on Garnett for years, but have to be giving up on that dream. If a Gasol trade does indeed come to pass, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. If West can wrangle either Gordon or Deng from Paxson, along with the draft pick and Thomas, then I’d see the deal as a win for Memphis, but even if Paxson holds to his guns, the Grizzlies can still get a good package for the future. And as the Bulls have shown, the first step in rebuilding is to clear away salary and stockpile assets, then you have options as your franchise moves forward.

Step up to the Q-Dime and Have Your Ten Questions Answered...

Tonight on TNT, the NBA announces the fan selections for the all star game. Given that they released a hundred and one results throughout the voting process, there shouldn’t really be a lot of surprises. Maybe a late push helped Allen Iverson catch Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal might have overtaken Chris Bosh, and if there’s a God of voting then maybe the scintillating Agent Zero, Gilbert Arenas, caught the could be scintillating (if he weren’t a weenie) Vince Carter. But basically we know that Yao won the West center spot (and will need an injury replacement) and Shaq the East (and wont), while Wade, Kobe, LeBron, and two of Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Dirk Nowitzki (with the third likely starting for Yao), will deservingly be elected to star. But overall, the whole thing’s a big yawn, so why does the announcement matter? Well, it only matters because it marks the halfway point of the NBA season. Most teams have passed the 41 game barrier, and are now focusing on positioning themselves for the stretch run, which makes it a perfect time to cover a bunch of topics with a little edition of the Q- Dime. Ten relevant questions, ten mediocre answers. Enjoy:

1) Should Steve Nash win three straight MVPs when Michael Jordan never did?
There are people in some quarters arguing that Nash, despite having his best season, shouldn’t win a third straight MVP award given that only three players have ever done so. Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird are the NBA’s only triple time winners, an achievement they twice robbed Michael Jordan of. Obviously, that line of thinking is absurd, the sort of antiquated drivel which should have voters stripped of their privileges, but… whatever. Nash has been nothing short of phenomenal in making sure that the Suns didn’t crumble apart while trying to add Amare Stoudemire’s larger than life presence back into the lineup. Nobody expected them to be playing at this high of a level already. Still, Dirk Nowitzki is once again leading an extremely formidable Mavericks team. A team which has gone 33-4 after starting 0-4. Apparently there was a mild finals hangover in Dallas, but the big German sobered everybody up and has shown an innate ability to let the game develop over three quarters, before taking over in the fourth. A trademark MVP move. For what it’s worth, Nash gave his vote to Nowitzki, although that shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s followed Nash. Here’s how I’d rank them at the half way point.
5) Tim Duncan – The big Spur is still great, but his team has noticeably slipped behind the Suns and Mavs.
4) Gilbert Arenas – I’m not convinced that Dwayne Wade wont catch him, but right now, Arenas is the East’s MVP. Too bad the East’s so bad that leaves him fourth.
3) Kobe Bryant – I don’t like him and I don’t even really respect him, but grudgingly I admit that he remains the best player in the NBA and without him the Lakers would be vying for Greg Oden, not for home court in the playoffs.
2) Steve Nash – Ironically, his numbers dipped briefly after going back to his preferred ball, still he’s shooting .537 from the floor and .498 from behind the arc, which explains how he can average 19.6 points, while still dishing 11.6 assists.
1) Dirk Nowitzki – If the Suns pass the Mavs in the second half, then perhaps this will switch, because these two are so close that the best record has to be considered the tie breaker, not how many consecutive MVPs Nash already has.

2) Should Carmelo Anthony be an All Star, even though he was suspended 15 games?
There are two sides to this argument, first that Anthony shouldn’t be included because he missed fifteen games after slapping Jared Jeffries. The other side is that Anthony should be an all star, because he’s leading the league in scoring with 31.6 per game. So, which side is right? Neither. They’re both wrong. It seems like months that Anthony was out, yet he shouldn’t be excluded just because he missed time. On the other hand, his 31.6 per game average wasn’t really helping the Nuggets in those 15 games he missed, so don’t credit per game averages to argue his case. More important is his season totals. The West isn’t struggling for players to fill the all star roster, so the games Anthony has appeared in have to be good enough to warrant his inclusion over players who haven’t missed anything. For instance, and just for arguments sake: was his play in 24 games enough to include him over somebody like Shawn Marion, who hasn’t scored as much per game, but continues to be integral for the NBA’s second best team. By scoring 758 points, Anthony’s helped the Nuggets to 15 wins in 24 games, but Marion has produced 793 points (plus defense and rebounding) in helping the Suns to 34 win in 42 games. I’m not saying that Anthony’s shouldn’t be an all star, if he’s been good enough in 24 games he should be in, but just because he’s averaging 31 points doesn’t make the decision for us.

3) What Happened to the Spurs? And the Pistons?
Ok, now, obviously neither of these teams are in risk of missing the playoffs, but they also clearly have fallen well behind the Mavericks and Suns in the title chase. Lets take the Spurs first. While they’ve already lost 14 games, Greg Popovich is clearly more interested in preserving the big three for June than compiling a few extra wins right now. I think that he believes, and he’s probably right, that the Spurs can beat either Phoenix or Dallas, in their own buildings, as long as everybody is healthy. So while they’d love to have home court advantage, it’s not nearly as important as health. Still, the Spurs could use some fresh legs on the perimeter --- Bruce Bowen in particular is showing the effects of Papa Time (similar to Papa Smurf, but without the red pants… I know, women and children have been known to gasp) --- really what they need, is for it to be playoff time, when Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker each play ten more minutes a game than they play now.

The Pistons on the other hand are unraveling. If they didn’t play in the Eastern Conference, then this might already be a lost season, but as it stands now, by putting together a good run at the right time, they can still win the East and make it to the finals. However, I’m doubtful. The confusing part, is that Flip Saunders --- who was a players coach in Minnesota --- has seemingly lost Rasheed Wallace, a few months after his relationship with Ben Wallace was a catalyst in Big Ben leaving for Chicago. Saunders is letting the team open up on offence, changing them from Larry Brown’s grind it out defensive team, to an up-tempo offensive team, but still Flip’s apparently rubbing his guys the wrong way. Call me crazy, but I’m not convinced that Chris Webber is the balm to this situation.

4) Who won that Indiana – Golden State eight man trade?
This season, probably neither team will be drastically better. If Al Harrington is enough to push the Warriors past Minnesota and into their first playoff appearance in 12 years, then they can clearly chalk it up as a success. However, the Pacers were looking for two things. One, getting Stephen Jackson as far away from their team as possible; and two, acquiring Ike Diogu, whom they really wanted last year when they traded Ron Artest. Diogu may work well beside Jermaine O’Neal, or he might be a long term replacement if the Pacers look to completely depart themselves from the O’Neal/Artest era by trading Jermaine. Either way, Indiana was already a weak playoff team in the East and Diogu, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy wont improve them enough to change that. So, short term the Warriors could see better results, but long term Diogu’s development will determine whether it’s a win for the Pacers.

5) Should the Bulls trade Luol Deng and Ben Gordon for Pau Gasol?
Ahhh heck, this deserves it’s own column, so check back tomorrow for a comprehensive answer to Bulls, their young trade chips, and what they should do with them.

6) Anybody else interesting on the block?
In a word, no. But that doesn’t mean that nobody will be traded. Two years ago, the deadlines were shocking; massive deals, surprising big names, cap clearing moves. While the big names right now are Corey Maggette and Mo Peterson, Vince Carter could move. Jason Kidd might move, although I doubt that. Portland could trade Zach Randolph, the Kings are a makeover waiting to happen, Grant Hill’s expiring deal and Darko’s frowning face could be had in Orlando, and anyone on Miami’s roster not named Shaq, Alonzo, or Dwayne could be moved. That’s what makes the NBA trade deadline so enticing. Nobody knows what’s going to happen, but it’s usually intriguing.

7) What the heck’s going on with Owners?
A week ago, Utah Jazz owner Larry Miller was blowing hard on his radio show about Andrei Kirilenko being on thin ice, and two days ago Timberwolves owner Glenn Taylor fired coach Dwayne Casey, because he apparently thinks his team is Conference finals material. Uhmmm, boys? Are you remembering to take your pills in the morning? You should, they’re real helpful. Firstly, Miller: shut up. Seriously, shut up. For the good of your team, your franchise, and your franchise’s best player, shut up. Kirilenko having a terrible season. He’s seemingly forgotten how to put the ball through the hole, which is an important attribute for a professional basketball player, but he’s still your best player, he’s playing out of position, and he answered a reporters question when he had a microphone shoved in his face. Even if he is on thin ice, what the heck does that mean? Are you going to release him? Uhmmm… no. Fine him? Not for wanting a larger role in the offence. Cast him to the back of the bench ne’er to be seen again? Not while he continues to be your only consistent defensive presence and Jerry Sloan continues to be your coach. So, basically, your only option is to trade him, but by opening your stupidly large mouth, all that you are doing is hurting his trade value. Just like last year, when you kept saying similarly stupid things about Carlos Boozer. Statements, you have now, seemingly forgotten…. Seriously, shut up.

Then there’s Taylor… Ok, no Casey may or may not have been the best guy for the job, but he’d made the Wolves contribute a consistent defensive effort, he’d helped them secure the eighth spot in the playoffs, and before a recent four game swoon (partly induced by a Kevin Garnett ejection and subsequent suspension), he’d won 10 of 13 games. Taylor, if you’re looking to point the finger for why your team wont be in the conference finals this year, then walk into the bathroom, look into the mirror at that handsome face, and get your index finger up, because you’re the culprit. You’re the guy who has let Kevin McHale hang around for three years too many. You’re the guy who lost all those draft picks with an under the table deal for Joe Smith (Smith? Really?). You’re the guy who didn’t want to re-sign Chauncey Billups. You’re the guy who ultimately signed off on rich multi-year deals for Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Mark Madsen, Eddie Griffith, Trenton Hassell, Mike James and, perhaps worst of all, Wally Szczerbiak and Michael Olowokandi (who were traded for the equally onerous Mark Blount and Ricky Davis). Those guys just aren’t very good. They aren’t Leandro Barbosa, Steve Nash, or Raja Bell. They aren’t Jason Terry, Josh Howard, or Jerry Stackhouse. You don’t have a team worthy of the conference finals, but a team worthy of the lottery. Do us all a favor, free Kevin Garnett from basketball purgatory and then fire yourself.

8) Will the Suns ever lose again?
Probably, but I’m not actually certain of this. If you remove their overtime loss to Dallas and that game in Washington where Gilbert Arenas’ desperation three won it at the buzzer, then the Suns just won their 32nd game. That’s sick. Like all time great, sick. Of course, the Mavs are themselves working on some stupid winning streaks. Three different ones over eight games. So that’s crazy too. My best guess, the Suns drop one of their next three on the road, just because hotel beds get uncomfortable after a while, visiting team’s sometimes don’t get the bounces they should. Still, if they can take their traveling road show past the Bucks, Cavs, and Wolves, (each easily winnable), then that sets up a really intriguing game in their return home February 1st against the Spurs. That’d be for number 19 and a real place in history.

9) Ok, enough of this pre-amble, pull up your panties for prediction time, who makes the playoffs?
The first six in the West could be set in stone, because while the order might be joggled, Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, the Lakers, and Houston will all be playing in June. Denver’s should be fine now that Anthony’s back, unless of course he decides to “punch” anyone again, or Iverson and him cannot get along, but I don’t foresee either being a problem. Minnesota, The Clippers and Golden State are going to be fighting for that final spot. Each should have plenty of motivation, and while I’d have given the edge to the Wolves two days ago, I think the Casey firing was dumb. The talent of each is comparable, so lets go with the best coach and have Don Nelson’s Warriors break a decade plus of ineptitude.

The East is a little more open to interpretation, but still there are some forgone conclusions. Washington was surprising conference leader at the half way mark, they might not hold maintain that, but they’ll easily qualify. Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit are all in, even if they’re each a little disappointing. Orlando and Indiana will each limp into the playoffs, Orlando because they’re still young and Indiana, because they’ve been neutered by Dr. Kavork-Artest. The Atlantic division is apparently guaranteed a spot, which probably goes to New Jersey… although the injury to Richard Jefferson and uncertainty of Kidd and Carter opens the door to Toronto. Finally, the Heat, despite playing appalling first half basketball wont miss out on the playoffs now that Shaq’s back.

10) Ok, then who makes the finals?
I see no reason to move from my preseason Bulls – Suns pick and just like then, I like the Suns to show that fun, fast paced hoops can

The Heart, the hair, and Peyton Manning versus the Maniacal Genius

My heart stopped, or maybe I threw it up, out of my body, so that it hung there in the air, just as the ball hung, so improbably, in the air above Reggie Wayne’s head. The Indianapolis Colts season on the line, but so, so much more than that. The legacy of two men, two great football men, two great everything men. Men to whom only the ability to win the big game could be put into question. The march down the field, systematic, careful, decisive when needed, had yielded a 23 yard catch and run by Reggie Wayne, but in the blink of an eye, somehow, like a magic trick perpetrated by the maniacal Bill Belichick, the ball was hovering above Wayne’s head. Just. Hanging. There. And my heart stopped.

The Colts were driving for the win. To beat their nemesis. To kill the monkey which hung around the head of both quarterback Peyton Manning and head coach Tony Dungy. To say that they were trying to cap an improbable comeback just lacks context. This wasn’t just any comeback. It was a comeback against Belichick, a comeback against the Golden Boy, Tom Brady. It was the fruition of Peyton’s career “Big Game” failures. All those defeats as a youngster at Tennessee. Peyton only lost six times in forty-five games in college, but four of those came against the only team that mattered, Florida. In the pros, somehow, Florida had transmogrified into New England (a geography trick I’d no doubt understand, if I’d taken geography). Dungy, the classiest man in football and an exceptional coach, was no different. Despite a career regular season winning percentage of .648, he was 7-8 in the playoffs, with no Super Bowl appearances. The Golden Boy and the Genius on the other sideline, well, everybody knows that they’re 12-1 together in the playoffs. The Colts weren’t just attempting to take the lead and complete the greatest comeback in AFC championship history, they were trying to exorcise demons. Serious playoff demons.

The game seemed to be over midway through the second quarter. The Patriots scored their first touchdown on a fumble at the two yard line. A fumble which the Colts seemed to have covered, only the ball somehow squirted out the bottom of the pile, where Patriots offensive lineman Logan Mankins lunged upon it. In the end zone. The play was indicative of the Peyton and Dungy’s struggle against the Patriots. It seemed to be a inauspicious sign. A systematic Patriots drive made everybody remember why the Colts had the worst run defense in the league this year, and it added another seven points to the board. 14-3, surely make or break time for Peyton. First throw, interception Assante Samuel, clear path to the endzone. 21-3 Patriots. Even the staunchest Peyton fans were starting to doubt. This was it, how could it possibly be happening again? In Indianapolis, where the Colts were 9-0 this year.

Of course, maybe the greatest quarterback in regular season history isn’t a choker. Maybe, just maybe, he is a great leader, who failed in the past against a dynastical team, with its own great leader, because as the final three minutes of the second quarter ebbed away, Peyton Manning did nothing but systematically dissect a defense which has defined his playoff failures. It was a clinic. Right sideline to Wayne for 18 yards. Across the middle to Marvin Harrison for 13 yards. To the left to Aaron Moorehead for five yards. Back across the middle, this time to Dallas Clark for 13 yards. Up the middle to Dominic Rhodes for 11 yards. Again across the middle to Clark, for another 12 yards. Field goal. 15 plays, 80 yards, in two minutes fifty nine seconds. Six completions, five different receivers, almost Brady-esque.

The Colts still trailed by fifteen, but they hadn’t wilted. After the ugly interception, at what seemed the final breaking point, when lowly writers were ready to pack it in, turn off the game in disgust and move on, Peyton showed determination. And he started the second half in the exact same fashion. Spreading the ball, attacking the defense, winding the Patriots with jabs to the gut. Another long, solid drive, this one capped off by Peyton himself tossing his body over the line for the score. And suddenly, that Colts defense which had been looking so defeated, suddenly they knew that the game was on, that their leader could match the Golden Boy, if they just gave him the ball back. Three and out, Colts ball. Another long drive, another touchdown. This time using the Patriots move against them; defensive lineman, and former Patriot, Dan Klecko feinting to the outside, dummying his man, catching the ball and rumbling in for the score. It was like some bizzaro world. The great Patriots kicker, Adam Vinateri booting it for the Colts, Klecko scoring a touchdown for the Colts (how did New England not see that coming?), Manning calmly leading his team, and spreading the ball. An eighteen point comeback, 21-3, 21-6, 21-13, 21-19… It might be time to tie it up. Peyton, to who else, but Marvin Harrison, two point conversion is good. Tie game. Even watching, there’s a sense of disbelief. Tie game, but… Wow. Shock. The momentum not just swinging to Indy, but catapulting.

Of course, these are the Patriots and they aren’t rolling over. An eighty yard kickoff return by Ellis Hobbs makes the momentum stop. Dead. Five plays, twenty one yards, a short TD pass from Tom Brady to Jabbar Gafney, as though Brady is putting his foot on Peyton’s throat and saying, ‘come on, get up, and punch back.’ And, in the past, perhaps, that punch might have lacked something, but up off the matt Peyton came again. A seven play, 67 yard drive culminating, almost in a cruel twist of fate, in a fumble on the Patriots goal line. A fumble recovered, not by the Patriots, but by Indianapolis lineman Jeff Saturday. Two touchdowns by offensive linemen in the same game. In a championship game no less. Again Wow.

Two Patriot field goals, one for the Colts, a Peyton thumb scare, and some brain cramp penalties on both sides, and the Patriots are leading 34-31. With three minutes left the Colts go three and out and things are looking bleak, but as clumps of hair drop out of the clutched hands of this scribe, the Colts maligned D makes another key stop (helped by a dumb Patriots penalty), and Peyton takes the field with two minutes seventeen seconds left. Forget that he still has another decade of football left to play, this is his legacy moment. Three and out, the games over, Colts lose, the great play and comeback mean nothing, Peyton’s a choker. Eleven yards left to Wayne, first down. Incomplete pass, second down, another tug of the hair follicles hits the floor. Pacing, angst. Is it possible to bite your knuckle clean off? And then we come back to the ball in the air. Tight throw across the middle to Wayne, who slips a tackle and runs down field, only to what? Lose the ball in the air, momentarily stop my heart, add a new bizarre playoff failure to the litany of Dungy-Manning failures…

Then just like that Wayne reached up, grabbed it out of the air, and fell to the ground. It couldn’t have been more than a second, but my heart had no choice but to beat a hundred times faster to make up for the beat it had missed. Fortunately for the Colts, they had the man who supposedly cannot connect in the clutch at the helm. And what did he do? All he did was slow them down. Hand it off to Joseph Addai for 5 yards; run forty-five seconds off the clock, hand it off to Joseph Addai for three yards; force a New England timeout, hand it off to Joseph Addai for 3 yards… Touchdown. Just like that. Nothing fancy, just simple, hard mouth, tough guy football. From the soft perennially choking team.

One last desperation drive by the Golden Boy, which in this bizaro game, could only have ended in a game ending pick. Marlin Jackson stepping in front of a pass for Troy Brown and brilliantly falling stright to the ground. No, stupid run, no possible fumble. Right to the ground. A kneel by Peyton and the game’s over. The heart beating like () and the head looking increasingly like the Bald Man’s.

Of course it isn’t over for Peyton or Dungy. The Chicago Bears are still left to beat. The Bears, who are led by Dungy’s good friend, the great Lovie Smith. Two black coaches, ensuring that one will become the first to win a Super Bowl, but that’s a story for another day. For now, the Colts have done what seemed inherently impossible. They’ve beaten the Patriots, toppled Belichick, outplayed Brady. It’s over, Peyton won the big game…

Now I think I’m going to go and throw up.

The Suns Are Hot, Could they Be Hotter?

They’re on pace for 64 wins, and if you remember that they started the season 1-5, then it’s plausible that they are closer to a 70 win team than a 60 win team. They put together a 15 game winning streak and are now in the midst of 11 straight wins. So, despite being a good, exciting team the past two seasons, this year, the Phoenix Suns are down right scary. Scorching hot and readying themselves for an eventual Western Conference showdown with equally hot Dallas. Yet, even with all the success they’ve had, a man with Sports on the Brain cannot help but wonder, could they be better? Well, yes, yes they could.

The one area that the Suns have hurt themselves during the Colangelo/D’Antoni reign is in regards to their draft picks. Specifically, being somewhat cavalier in trading them away. On some level this was a cost cutting measure --- a short term saving --- which allowed them to add another piece, but next year the Suns’ payroll jumps to 76 million, well within the luxury tax realm, which owner Robert Sarver wants to avoid. Worst of all, those draft day maneuverings have actually left the team poorer talent-wise than if they’d just selected a player and spent the draft slot money on him. So, lets look back at each of the last three drafts, what the Suns could have done, and what they did instead:


2004 – Given the Suns turnaround in 04/05, it’s hard to disagree with anything that they did in the 04 offseason, but… disagree we shall. After aborting the Stephon Marbury era in early January, the Suns finished the season 29-53 and were awarded the 7th pick in the draft. The Marbury trade had cleared a bunch of cap room, enough for the Suns to make their big offer to Steve Nash. At the time, everyone assumed that the Suns would be in on the bidding for Kobe Bryant and when they traded the 7th pick (and it’s guaranteed money) to the Bulls, it looked as though they were just getting the extra room necessary for Kobe. But the Suns, wisely, never made an offer for Kobe, instead instantly wooing Nash. The extra cash was used on Quentin Richardson, who was an important piece for the Suns that year. Still, the Suns traded him after becoming leery of his wonky back and sporadic play. Who could the Suns have had with that 7th pick? Well, they could have used it on Josh Smith. He wouldn’t have helped much that first year, but he’d look awful good in their lineup now. Or they could have taken Andre Iguodala who’s athleticism and defense could immediately have been used, or they could just have drafted Luol Deng, who’s on the verge of his first all star appearance, and making the Bulls look pretty savvy.

2005 – All those draft day moves from 2004 come to fruition in ‘05. The Bulls suddenly became good and the pick they sent the Suns was only 21st. The Suns ended the Richardson era by moving him to New York for Kurt Thomas, but in a move that I never understood, the Suns tossed in that little knucklehead Nate Robinson, whom they’d drafted with that 21st pick. Thomas for Richardson seemed pretty even, if the Knicks had to have Robinson, then the Suns should have received better compensation. Of course, if they draft Deng, then they don’t need to make the trade in the first place. So what should they have done with that pick? Well, I think it’s obvious that David Lee’s the best player to come out of the second half of that draft. Still, given how much of a man crush Isaiah had/has on Robinson, drafting and then trading him to the Knicks would have allowed the Suns to add Lee, at a lower salary slot than 21, while picking up a future second round pick as well.


2006 – After the Joe Johnson trade brought Phoenix the Lakers’ 21st draft pick (at some point sent to Atlanta, I could look it up and tell you when, and for whom, but… I’m feeling particularly lazy today), the Suns had two picks in the 2006 draft, which would have been a good time to reload with some young guys, but instead they traded both picks. They compounded that mistake when they used those two roster spots on point guard Marcus Banks and shooting guard Eric Piatkowski. The two journeymen are costing the Suns 4.8 million this year, while Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez would only be costing them 2.6 million. Worse, Banks has another 17.28 million remaining on his contract. Trading Rodriguez was surprising, given the Suns’ European leanings, and the Spaniards play of late makes it look especially bad. The Suns gave Piatkowski a two year 3 million deal, but thus far he’s appeared in two games for five total minutes. Five minutes, no points, one and a half million in the bank. Nice. Banks has the far worse contract and while he’s played in more than two games, he’s averaging only 9.8 minutes and has run up a recent string of DNPs. His PER thus far has been a pathetic 9.63, which pales compared to Rodriguez’s 17.15. So, even if the Suns make the Rondo trade, to shave Brian Grants’ salary from the books (while also acquiring a pick in 2007), they should have kept Rodriguez and steered way clear of Banks and Piatkowski.

What Does it all mean?

Trading away all those picks and instead signing overvalued, unproductive veterans has done two negative things to the Suns. Firstly, it’s made them extremely dependent upon six players. Obviously, if Steve Nash goes down for any prolonged period, the Suns will be doomed, likewise Shawn Marion, but an injury to Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, or Leadnro Barbosa will also be difficult for the Suns to cover. Even the injury to Kurt Thomas will hurt, because the Suns have nobody viable to absorb his 18 minutes of rugged interior play. The second, and ultimately more divisive effect, is that the contracts of Banks, Piatkowski, and Thomas put the Suns into the tax, which likely precipitates their moving Shawn Marion. Why Marion? Well, Diaw and Barbosa will be base year compensation players next year, making them virtually unmovable, the Suns aren’t trading the two-time MVP and face of their franchise, so Nash is staying, and while he’s still recovering from micro-fracture surgery, Amare Stoudemire is that transcendent talent you only trade when things get desperate. Had they drafted Deng, Lee, and Rodriguez, then the Suns would have a rotation that ran nine deep, their salary number this year would be only 57, 590, 952. Better still, next year it would be 69 million, seven and a half million less than it’s currently slated to be.

Why Does Any of This Matter:

Sure, hindsight’s 20/20, so obviously it’s easy now to say that the Suns should have held onto those guys and avoided the contracts given to Quentin Richardson (which is now costing them Kurt Thomas’ money), Banks, and Piatkowski, but what’s done is done, right? Well, yes, but this is a classic example of, if you don’t learn from your past, you’re doomed to repeat it… The Suns, through the Joe Johnson to Atlanta deal, and the trade with Boston, potentially have three picks in this draft. Atlanta’s pick is top three protected, but right now their lottery odds put them fifth. Just good enough to hand a top pick to Phoenix. Of course, lady luck could smile upon the Hawks and the ping pong balls could jump them up, but if said lady looks the other way, then Phoenix needs to learn from the Deng deal and use that top pick to take an asset who will not destroy their cap for another five years. The two other picks wont bring a top talent, but in a draft which is thought to potentially be the deepest ever, the picks should bring two rotation guys. They don’t have to be great, but with a cap value just below a million each they’ll benefit the club by being cost effective. If the Suns really don’t want to add a player now, they should look to the example of their Western Conference rival, San Antonio, who for years have used their top pick on somebody with great potential, who plays overseas. That way, the player doesn’t affect their current cap situation, instead developing on somebody else’s budget. Eventually arriving two or three years later ready to help the club.

Here Cometh the Man (Child)...

Once every four or five years, a young man comes out of the amateur ranks who imediately changes imposes himself on the NBA game. Somebody who means fifteen years of playoff appearances, three or four championships, and sold out arenas for the team lucky enough to draft them. In 1980 the Lakers took Ervin “Magic” Johnson number one. They then won five titles before HIV forced the effervescent great to retire. In 1984 the Chicago Bulls used the 3rd pick on Michael Jordan. Maybe you’ve never heard of him, but I think he won a title, or six for the Bulls. In 1992 a smiling behemoth jumped from LSU to the NBA and in his third season took the Orlando Magic to the NBA finals. The Magic might have rode him to a couple championships, but an out clause in his contract allowed Shaquille O’Neal to cross the country and land in LA. Three straight championships eventually followed, before his ugly divorce found him back in Florida, this time in Miami, for a fourth title. In 1997 the Boston Celtics had two lottery picks and a terrible 15-67 record. They were so ready to get Tim Duncan that he even appeared beside coach Rick Pitino on the cover of Sports Illustrated… San Antonio won the lottery and took Duncan. In the nine years since that draft, the Celtics have won a total of three playoff series, the Spurs have won three NBA titles. Finally in 2003 a young man came out of high school so ready to compete that in his rookie season, LeBron James averaged 20.9 points. That’s 7.4 more than Amare Stoudemire threw down in his rookie campaign, 10.5 more than Kevin Garnett produced in his first year, and a whopping 13.3 more than Mr. Kobe Bryant produced in the first year of his partnership with Shaq. Sure, LBJ hasn’t led Cleveland to a championship yet, but he’s only in year four. Why does all this matter? Because the NBA is standing on the edge of another transcendent talent: Greg Oden. He’s the reason the 76ers traded Allen Iverson and cut bait with Chris Webber, he’s the reason the Supersonics, going nowhere, except perhaps Oklahoma, should consider trading Ray Allen, why the Hornets shouldn’t sweat the injuries to David West and Peja Stojackovic, and why the Bulls are hopping Isaiah Thomas makes another roster damaging move.

This season isn’t about the NBA championship, it's about vying for ping pong balls. As many ping pong balls as possible. Because, what good is being mediocre, if you’re just good enough to miss out on Greg Oden. While Oden is saying all the right things about spending more than one year at Columbus, there is no debate about his place at the top of a loaded draft (Joakim Noah, who would have gone number 1 last spring could fall to fifth). So, in the midst of January, post Christmas, post boxing day doldrums, lets take a look at a few of the best landing spots for the most hyped collegiate big man since Patrick Ewing (O’Neal and Duncan both had greater professional impact, but less collegiate hype). Yes, he would instantly help Philly, Memphis, and Charlotte, but here are five places where Oden would be in the playoffs next year.

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the Seattle Supersonics select… Greg Oden:

Perhaps there is no team that could use Oden more than the Sonics, who are devoid of a superstar, are on the verge of leaving their home, and are languishing in mediocrity. Despite his age, Oden could help the Sonics right now, with his defensive savvy alone. To increase the likelihood of landing the big man, the Sonics would be wise to part with a couple of players who make them just good enough, to win 40 games and barely miss the playoffs. So, they should be needling the Bulls, who need consistent offence and have an enticing stable of young talent into parting with Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and P.J. Brown’s expiring deal for Ray Allen. This deal helps the Sonics dive under the cap for next season and brings them a tough young front court presence to pair alongside Oden. Gordon’s streaky, but he’s still capable of being a 20 point per game scorer in this league. Next they should trade Earl Watson to the point guard needy Cavaliers for Scott Pollard, A. Pavlovic and D. Jones. All three are free agents and should be immediately cut. Two more minor deals (Robert Swift and Damien Wilkins for Josh Childress, Royal Ivey, and Salim Stoudemire, and Johan Petro to Charlotte for a pair of second round picks) save a little money and clear out the log jam at center created by Oden’s arrival. The money saved from each of those deals puts the Sonics well under the salary cap, which is good because for all of this team’s strengths what it lacks is a veteran leader. Chauncey Billups is a free agent and perfectly fits the bill.
PG – C. Billups, L. Ridnour
SG – B. Gordon, J. Childress, and S. Stoudemire
SF – R. Lewis, M. Gelabale
PF – T. Thomas, N. Collison, C. Wilcox
C – G. Oden, M Sene
The shooting of Billups, Gordon, and Lewis pairs perfectly with Oden. Thomas can develop into a defensive monster who cleans the glass and gets energy points. This team’s good, real good.

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the Atlanta Hawks select… Greg Oden:

The Hawks are a lot like Britney Spears, there are so many problems right now, that it’s hard to know how to start the healing process. There’s the injury problems, the overmatched coach, the worst GM in the NBA not named Isaiah or Kevin, the dead arena, the ugly ownership issue, the lack of a salient point guard, and, oh yeah, the lack of a decent post presence. Ah, but if anything can straighten most of those problems out right away (besides of course, someone, anyone, firing Billy Knight), it’s getting Greg Oden. The Hawks, who are somewhat hamstrung by the ownership debacle, should start by trading away backup point guard Tyronn Lue. Actually Lue has been better than starter Speedy Claxton this year, but I can’t imagine anyone pony-ing up for Claxton’s remaining 18 million. If they can find a taker, then awesome, but for now lets just go with trading Lue to the (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) point guard needy Cavaliers for Scott Pollard and A. Pavlovic. If you’re getting a sense of deja-vu, then you’re on to something, because freeing up that little bit of room allows the Hawks to make a big push for… Mr. Billups.
PG – C. Billups, S. Claxton
SG – J. Johnson, J. Childress, S. Stoudemire
SF – J. Smith, M. Williams
PF – S. Williams, S. Jones
C – G. Oden, Z. Pachulia, L. Wright
Now, saying a team can win the East is kind of being damned with faint praise, but this team looks pretty formidable. Billups and Johnson would easily be the East’s best backcourt, a front line of Oden, Josh Smith and Sheldon Williams would be formidable on opposing scorers, and Marvin Williams could focus on winning a 6th man of the year award.

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the Portland Trailblazers select… Greg Oden:

Is there another fan base in the NBA that deserves having Oden arrive more than the Rose Garden faithful? After years of pot busts, drunk driving, spousal abuse, pot busts, dog fighting, paternity suits, pot busts, threatening officials, trespassing, pot busts, spitting on fans, causing disturbances on airplanes, pot busts, gun possession, brawls and, oh yeah POT BUSTS... the Blazers have alienated some of the NBA’s most loyal fans (Honestly, I just googled “jailblazers” and not surprisingly there is a site dedicated to those special players who made Portland so beloved…). The Rose Garden used to be sold out every night, with fans who loved basketball, loved the NBA, and loved their Blazers most of all. The legacy paced from Bill Walton, the woolly, Dead Headed wonder (Hhmmm… there does seem to be a legacy of mara-juuuu-ana), to the ubber classy Clyde Drexler, to the human technical Rasheed Wallace, before finally landing on the exceptionally unclassy Zach Randolph. This fan base needs Greg Oden, they deserve Greg Oden, and I might even find myself cheering for them on pin pong day. They should look to trade Zach Randolph right now. Sure, he’s playing really well, but that just means his trade value couldn’t be higher. Finding a trade partner is tricky. I’d obviously call the Bulls first, but I doubt they want any part of Randolph. Memphis might be feeling desperate enough right now. They have Rudy Gay and Eddie Jones’ expiring deal, which could be traded for Randolph, Travis Outlaw, and Juan Dixon. Memphis would have to include their first round pick (number one protected of course), but it’s still a pretty sweet deal for the Grizzlies, which the Blazers only do because it frees up a lot of room to go after… Chauncey Billups. Damn, I really am starting to sound like a broken record. Look, I don’t mean to, if I thought that Steve Nash or Chris Paul could be pried from their teams I’d go after them, but a team drafting Oden is going to need a great floor general to get him the ball, knock down open shots, and be a leader (after all, Oden only looks 37), and, Billups is one of the best, and a free agent to boot. The draft pick is of course hard to prognosticate, but I’d imagine that with Randolph in the lineup, Memphis is good enough the rest of the way to almost make the playoffs, giving the Blazers a pick in the 12-14 range, where they select Thaddeus Young.
PG – C. Billups, J. Jack, S. Rodriguez
SG – B. Roy, M. Webster
SF – R. Gay, T. Young
PF – L. Aldridge, R. La Frentz
C – G. Oden, J. Przybilla
They’re incredibly young, but this team would be well coached (Nate McMillan is great) and they’d finally give the Blazers faithful something good (and sober) to cheer about.

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the New Orleans Hornets select… Greg Oden:

The last time the NBA’s best young point guard was paired with the NBA’s best young center was Orlando when Penny Hardaway helped O’Neal lead the Magic to the NBA finals. Of course, we never got to see how good that tandem could be, but for the folks of New Orleans, so abused over the past year, the Oden and Chris Paul tandem would be blissful. They would play some sweet music together and likely for a long time. Oden’s arrival might even help Peja Stojakovic rediscover his sweet shooting stroke.
PG – C. Paul, B. Jackson
SG – ???????
SF – P. Stojakovic, R. Butler
PF – D. West, T. Chandler, C. Simmons
C – G. Oden, H. Armstrong
Sure, they’re missing a shooting guard and their bench guys could improve, but this team makes the playoffs next year (in the West no less) and has a very bright future.

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the Boston Celtics select… Greg Oden:

Just when the Celtics were starting to play their best ball, Paul Pierce goes down with a stress reaction in his right foot. He wont be out long, but the fans of this once great team surely hope he’s out long enough to drop them down the pin pong pecking order. Oden would join a long list of glorious Celtic players and might even allow Pierce (considerably underrated in Celtics lore) to gain the recognition he deserves. The real question would be, is Oden good enough to eradicate the shroud which has hung over the franchise since Len Bias’ death? If anyone can return the Celtics to their rightful place atop the NBA hierarchy, it would be the man who’s frequently compared to Bill Russell. After taking Oden, the Celtics would no longer need wait for Al Jefferson to develop and could package him along with Sebastion Telfair, and Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract to the (soon to be) rebuilding New Jersey Nets for Jason Kidd. Sure Kidd’s lost a couple steps, but he’s the perfect floor leader to combine with Pierce and Oden. After those moves, the Celtics look like this:
PG – J. Kidd, R. Rondo
SG – P. Pierce, D. West, T. Allen
SF – G. Green, W. Szczerbiak
PF – R. Gomes, B. Scalabrine, and L. Powe
C – G. Oden, K. Perkins
They might want to make a coaching change, but even Doc Rivers would be hard pressed not to take this team to the finals.

And One Team That Instantly Becomes the Title Favorite:

With the number one pick in the 2007 draft, the Chicago Bulls select… Greg Oden:

The Knicks seem to be playing just well enough (and the East is just pathetic enough), that the Bulls’ possibility for Oden is slipping away, but still, landing in Chicago would be the best possible spot for the man-child. Right now, the Bulls are loaded for the future, but with Oden… Damn. As soon as I knew that Oden would be mine, I’d put Ben Gordan and Tyrus Thomas in a package with the cap space from P.J. Brown’s expiring contract and see who stepped forward with a veteran guard to lead this team. First choice, Boston’s Paul Pierce, but Ray Allen would work too. I’d love to see the team that tries to score inside on a front line anchored by Oden and four time defensive player of the year Ben Wallace. Defensively the team’s already dominant, add Oden and some maturity from Sefolosha and watch out.
PG – K. Hinrich, C. Duhon
SG – P. Pierce, T. Sefolosha, A. Griffin
SF – L. Deng, A. Nocioni, V. Khrypya
PF – B. Wallace, M. Allen
C – G. Oden, M. Andriuskevicius
The only word for the Bulls future would be: dominant.

And (Finally) One For 2008:

With the number one pick in the 2008 draft, the Phoenix Suns select… Greg Oden:

If indeed Oden does return to Ohio State for next year (and right now I’d put the odds at 60-40 that he does) and Atlanta finishes with a top three pick this year (again, solid to good odds), then the possibility arises that Phoenix could get Oden with the top pick in 2008. Certainly this relies on a lot of far fetched scenarios, but with the ineptness of the Hawks, the possibility cannot be ignored. Realistically, it’s hard to predict how the Suns’ lineup would look after drafting Oden, because they may well trade Shawn Marion in the coming offseason (for luxury tax reasons), but still I cannot help to imagine… Even without the Hawks’ pick, the Suns have two draft picks this year. I’m assuming that they will use them on Corey Brewer and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute . Why am I assuming this? Mostly because it makes an @$$ out of you (I, obviously, am one already), but also because I think that both players will be available roughly when the Suns select and both fit with what the Suns need.
PG – S. Nash, L. Barbosa, M. Banks
SG – R. Bell, C. Brewer
SF – S. Marion, L. Mbah a Moute
PF – A. Stoudemire, S. Marks
C – G. Oden, B. Diaw, P. Burke
Ok, ok, I admit, it’s too much, just too much. They’d never all co-exist together, even with Nash. It’s probably for the best that Atlanta end up with the fifth pick in next years draft and the Suns can just go select Joakim Noah instead…

What's the Payoff, with no Playoff...

As I watched Florida’s domination of Ohio State last night I couldn’t help wondering if the result would have been different had the game been played last year, you know, when Ohio States season ended. This isn’t to disparage Florida in any way. They are deserving champions after coming to Arizona and dominating the Buckeyes in every facet of the game. Despite some questioning their involvement in the championship, they proved that they were the better team (and perhaps that the SEC was the better conference), but seriously, when did Ohio State play its last game?

I’m not certain, the memory’s hazy, but I think it was before Britney Spears had opened her legs for public viewing, I believe that American turkeys still had their heads, Donald Rumsfeld was still defending the United States against Terrorists, and Michael Richards was still just Kramer. Why the long layoff? Well, in part it’s because the Big Ten insists on ending its season on the third Saturday of November, with the Ohio State – Michigan game. Tradition is great and everything, but that decision translated into an extra two weeks without competition for the Big Ten’s top two teams. It would be naïve not to think that the extra time had something to do with them being blown out in their bowl games by a combined 41 points. But college football’s governing body is also to blame. It would have been difficult for the NCAA to have made their Championship game any more irrelevant. Fans just no longer cared with the same fevered passion as they would have seven days before. It might seem like only a week, but in this case a week’s all the difference in the world. Once the NFL starts its playoffs, college football, for its own sake, needs to be finished. It’s that simple. New Years Day is about college football. There should be bowl games all day, they should culminate that night in the national championship game. A game which concludes a three week playoff.

The NCAA, in all their brilliance, has said that there will be no changes to the current system until at least 2010, but that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be. Boise State supporters (and there seem to be a lot more of them after last weeks insane victory 43-42 overtime victory against Oklahoma) are clamoring that their team deserves a shot at Florida, and of course they’re absolutely right, but the game I really want to see is Florida-USC. Yes, USC lost to their rival in their last game, but after dominating Michigan, I’d love to see them have a crack at the title. A simple playoff of the six conference champions and two at large bids would maintain the importance of the regular season, while satiating our need to know who truly is the best. The technicalities aren’t really as important as the overall idea, but the at large bids could be awarded to the top ranked teams who failed to win their conference. Clearly, there would be some caveat for an undefeated mid major to automatically gain entry. The seeding would be simple: base them upon the rankings of the Associated Press poll. The coaches have shown this season, above any other, that their involvement in the voting process is a farce. Even if they bother to vote themselves, which many of them don’t, then they often vote for personal reasons, because of someone’s politicking, or for whimsy. The press isn’t perfect and they certainly aren’t always objective, but they’ve shown themselves to be a much more neutral barometer of the rankings, if for no other reason than at least they actually fill the form out themselves.

A playoff under this system would have been:

1) Ohio State v. 8) Wake Forrest
2) Florida v. 7) Boise State
3) Michigan v. 6) USC
4) Louisville v. 5) Oklahoma

Wake Forrest is the only lemming in the group, but how often will the ACC be won by the Demon Deacons and not Miami, Florida State, or Virginia Tech. The only team with a gripe about being excluded is LSU, who might be as good as Michigan, but lose out on the second at large bid based on ranking (although Michigan likely would have been ranked lower without the uproar for a re-match with Ohio State in the title game). That only intensifies the importance of September to December. With or without LSU, the playoff would have shown just how good Boise State is, it would have told us all we need to know about USC, it might even have produced better results from a rested, but not complacent, Ohio State and Michigan. Most importantly though, we’d have a true champion… it might even have been those wild, ballsy, go for the win with a two point conversion, Broncos.

What’s the Payoff, for the Player:

The other thought I had as I watched the extravagant pageantry of the game was, how long will it be before some pioneering student-athlete goes Curt Flood on the NCAA? There is such an exorbitant amount of money being earned for their schools by football players (and to a slightly lesser extent basketball players), that their coaches are now being given contracts in excess of 3 million a year. The two coaches in last night’s game combined to earn 5 million this season. Last week, in an attempt to get itself back to BCS prominence, Alabama gave Nick Saban a 40 million ten year contract. If he succeeds, he’ll take his team to a championship in which the school earns an automatic 17 million from the television contract alone. Then there’s merchandising money, the automatic and free advertising, and the endowments generated by big time athletic success. The players that Saban uses to get there, the young men whose names are on the back of the jerseys being sold? They get a first rate education (if they choose to treat it as such), they get exposure to the professional ranks (if they’re good enough to warrant it), and they get a pat on the buttocks and a couple thank you(s).

Now, I am no civil rights lawyer, but it seems to me that clearly there is some extreme exploitation happening here. School presidents will preach about the integrity of amateur sports, but no intelligent person can seriously put any credence in such horse-wash. Keeping money away from student athletes has nothing, absolutely NOTHING to do with integrity. It has everything to do with greed. There is a monster legal case here; a case which, given the color of most athletes playing in BCS and March Madness games, would be rife with racial sinews and political agendas. A case, which given the formidable strength of the NCAA’s legal machinery, could quite possibly be defeated at the highest levels of judicial court, but then Curt Flood’s 1969 anti- trust case against baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn wasn’t successful either. Instead it was ground-breaking, precedent setting, and change inducing. A case against the NCAA would have a similar effect, for in a country so doggedly determined to publicly propagate civil rights, there is an injustice here awaiting

Money Well Spent...

On Friday we looked at what a team of this offseason’s worst contracts would look like and the result was a supremely expensive team, with no real prospects of winning any division, well, except possibly the NL central (Go Cubs woo whoo…). Today we look at the best free agent deals of the winter, which mostly seem to involve older players getting short deals in cozy locations. Sure, they might end the season wearing white pants in Florida, but if they give anything like their past production than these guys will be absolute bargains.

C – M. Piazza, Athletics (8.5 million/1 year)… Ok, really Piazza’s going to play 30 games at catcher and 120 at DH, but hey, if they can give Rafael Palmeiro a gold glove when he only plays 28 games at first, then I can call Piazza my best catching contract of the offseason. Most people thought this was a natural pairing that would happen last year, but instead the A’s brought in Frank Thomas. A year later, the A’s can now use Piazza to spell Kendall for the occasional game, and to hit the ball out of the park, which he will 30 plus times.

1B – N. Garciaparra, Dodgers (18.5/2)… I thought that Nomar might make a great DH for an A.L. team, but that’s not yet the direction Mr. Hamm wishes to go. His contract blocks James Loney from first, but if the Dodgers put Loney out in the outfield (instead of say Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre) and Nomar can stay healthy, then this will be a great deal for the Dodgers.

2B – M. Giles, Padres (3.75/1)… Giles is getting older, his production is declining, and he’s going to a park which makes great hitters average, but in an offseason where everybody got too much money, for too many years the Pads filled a need with solid value.

SS – Nobody, No Team (No Money)… As Jays’ fans can tell you, it was an incredibly bleak market for shortstops (Royce Clayton, seriously? Him?). The Red Sox got the man they wanted, but after his pitiful performance in LA, I’m not sure how you can justify giving Julio Lugo four years at nine million per. All the other deals have been for backups (like, Alex Cora 2 years four million), or absolutely terrible (Gonzalez, Alex: see yesterday’s column. But Clayton? Really? Him?

3B – A. Ramirez, Cubs (75/5)… Considering that Ramirez plays a more important position, is arguably as dangerous a hitter, and is two years younger, it’s nuts that he signed with the same team, but for three years and 61 million fewer dollars than Alfonso Soriano. Good deal for Chicago, bad for Aramis.

RF – J. Drew, Red Sox (70/5)… Ok this deal is still being finalized, and honestly I’m a little mixed about it, but if the Red Sox are bringing in Drew to fill Trot Nixon’s shoes and hit fifth behind Big Papi and Manny, then he will succeed. If he’s replacing Manny then he’ll flop horribly. Drew can play center if Coco Crisp falters, he hits for power, works deep counts, runs the bases well, and always posts great on base percentages. In this market, Drew’s worth 14 million a year, if he’s healthy of course…

CF – K. Lofton, Rangers (6/1)… It was assumed that the Rangers signed Lofton to only a one year deal in the hopes of offering BIG money next winter to Vernon Wells, but then Wells extended his deal with the Jays. It’s still a good deal however. Lofton played just as well last year (at the end of his career) as departed Texas centerfielder Gary Mathews Jr. did in a career year. When Mathews’ production declines to his career norms, then the Angels will be saddled with an onerous contract, while the Rangers will have options next winter when Andrew Jones and Torii Hunter come on the market.

LF – D. Dellucci, Indians (11.5/3)… Dellucci remains one of baseball’s underrated players. He’s left handed, hits for power, works counts, and takes walks. His OPS has improved for three straight years (.783, .880, .899), and this year in the Indians lineup should top .900, which would make him an incredible bargain at less than 4 million per year.

DH – F. Thomas, Blue Jays (18.5/2)… This move was lambasted by pundits when it was consummated at the start of the offseason, but I liked it at the time and I like it more now. Thomas had a very good year in Oakland and his power should be more pronounced in Toronto. Yes, he’s a health risk, but given the contracts handed out this year, 18.5 isn’t a huge commitment.

SP – J. Schmidt, Dodgers (47/3)… The single best contract of the offseason. There were three pitchers considered frontline starters on the market, Barry Zito required 126 million and a 7 year commitment, acquiring Daisuke Matsusaka cost 51.1 million to negotiate and another 52 million for six years, but Schmidt? Schmidt only required a three year commitment and at the (comparatively) reasonable 15.6 million per year.

SP – D. Matsusaka, Red Sox (103/6)… 51.1 million of that 103 total figure is what the Red Sox paid to get exclusive negotiating rights. That’s important because marketing experts estimate that at least thirty of that will immediately come back to the Sox in Japanese merchandising and telecast dollars. The 51 also doesn’t count towards the luxury tax, which wouldn’t matter much if the Royals had posted it, but for the Sox whose salary is approaching 150, it’s important. Getting him penned for 52 over six made the posting fee money well spent.

SP – M. Mussina, Yankees (23/2)… Mussina was one of the five or six best pitchers in the American League last year and the Yanks have him for two more years at the completely reasonable 11.5 each. Even if he regresses, the Moose will be a solid contributor and certainly a far superior pitcher to Gil Meche.

SP – A. Pettitte, Yankees (16/1)… Sure, Pettitte is an injury risk, but simple question: is the Yankees pitching staff stronger with Pettitte than without? Absolutely. Ostensibly he replaces Jaret Wright, who the Yanks shipped to Baltimore. Wright’s postseason record: 3 – 6, 7.07 ERA. Pettitte’s postseason record 18-6, 4.08. Simplistic point? Sure. Discussion closed? Yes.

SP – R. Wolff, Dodgers (8/1)… The Padres got a good deal with Greg Maddux for one year at 10 million, and the Mets a similar one with Tom Glavine, but while those guys are Hall of Famers, they’re also on the wrong side of forty. Wolff is a tough left hander, whose capable of winning 15 games with a sub four ERA. He has health issues, but should benefit from playing in the cavernous Dodger stadium.

RP – E. Gagne, Rangers (6/1)… Ok, chalk this one up to wishful thinking. On some level I think that this is a terrible deal, because I think that Gagne’s arm is done, but six million dollars isn’t a huge investment for Rangers’ owner Tom Hicks, and if Gagne returns at all to his formidable self than his presence makes the entire pitching staff better (it’s the Rivera-corollary).

Since no team is complete without the lineup card, here’s how I’d pencil in the best team:

1) K. Lofton, cf (.301 Avg., .360 OBP, .403 Slg.), 6 million salary.
2) M. Giles, 2b (.261, .341, .387), 3.75 million.
3) J. Drew, rf (.283, .393, .498), 14 million.
4) A. Ramirez, 3b (.291, .352, .561), 15 million.
5) F. Thomas, dh (.270, .381, .545), 9 million.
6) N. Garciaparra, 1b (.303, .367, .505), 9.25 million.
7) D. Dellucci, lf (.292, .369, .530), 3.83 million.
8) M. Piazza, c (.283, .342, .501), 8.5 million.
9) S. Dude, ss (League Averages), minimum salary.

Sure, I freely admit that this team is old, that most of them can no longer run, and that their might be an issue with pharmaceuticals in the clubhouse (Viagra, not steroids…), but they can still rake and their contractual value isn’t stupid, or onerous. Even with whomever playing short, theses boys would beat the snot out of the team from last night while costing the owner 265 million fewer dollars. Hey, wasn’t there some great shortstop out there who once cost about that? Since we’ve got a few extra dimes rolling around in our pocket, what about giving him a call. I hear he’s having a rough time in his current locale, and, after all, we could use a big name at short…

The Worst of the Worst, Together on One Team...

While Christmas decorations remain scattered about the apartment, the gleam is off them, they no longer look festive, now they look misplaced, droopy. All of which must mean it’s January and after a long festive holiday break, it’s time to get back to the grind. Christmas has passed, presents were given, but hopefully you didn’t cripple yourself under excessive financial restrictions. Hopefully you haven’t committed fifty-five million to a middling fourth starter just to appease your children. Or given another three year deal, to another late thirties players. Of course if you did, then there was always boxing week for your family to return that junk. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Major League Baseball’s general managers, who in their pre-Christmas excitement went out and spent with a fervor not seen since started selling her unmentionables. The result? Some contracts that make Manny Ramirez’s remaining 40 million look like change recovered from between the couch cushions. How bad was the spending? Well, baseball executives dropped more than 700 million, which is only slightly less than the Nurse spent on shoes last year. And just because we’ve got Sports on the Brain, we thought, Hhmmm… how bad would a team comprised of this offseason’s worst contracts be…? Just for fun we’ll name the team the Cubs (what? That’s not indicative of me thinking that the Cubs spent a lot of money poorly, or anything, I just like small, furry animals).

C – B. Molina, Giants (16 million/3 years)… After a year of watching Molina rumble around the bases in a Jays uniform I can confidently say, “thank G@! that’s over.” Once a great defender, Molina is now too creaky to move to the pitch, and his jump to throw out base runners is glacial. He can’t run the bases, which is fine in SF, where nobody else can either, but he also doesn’t walk, hit for power, or do any of those other things that San Francisco’s old, creaky outfielder still does.

1B – S. Hillenbrand, (Angels 6.5/1)… There’s a great quote from an underappreciated former TV show, Sports Night: "I understand what makes a woman think that any man is better than nothing. I'll just never understand what makes any woman think she's got nothing." That’s how I feel about the Hillenbrand signing, I get that the Angels needed a bat after Juan Rivera broke his leg, but what made them think they needed a surly, supercilious, power deficient corner infielder who doesn’t walk, when they have plenty of reasonable replacements from the minors?

2B – A. Kennedy, Cardinals (10/3)… Yes, the Cardinals seemingly had great success with another former Angels middle infielder who was arriving after an off year, but two points here: 1) the World Series MVP isn’t as good, or as plucky, as St. Louis columnists would have you believe. 2) Kennedy’s production has been declining for two years now, that’s not an off year, it’s a regression.

SS – A. Gonzalez, Reds (14/3)… Any Jays fan can tell you that there were no worthwhile shortstops on the market this offseason (Royce Clayton? Really? Him?), and yes, the Reds needed to upgrade their defense at short, but 14 million for a player whose career OBP is .292? His career average is TWO-NINE-TWO…. I think my eye’s twitching, lets just move on.

3B – A. Huff, Orioles (20/3)… Let me see, the Orioles are already overpaying one declining third baseman, now they’ve decided to add another? Smart. Maybe he’ll bump the incomparable Kevin Millar off first, or fight for one of two outfield spots with Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, and youngster Val Majewski (I’m taking a leap of faith that the Orioles are smart enough to keep Nick Markakis in left). Or I guess he can DH. Twenty million for a player who really has no discernable spot in your lineup? Wow, another stellar move from baseball’s most confounding organization.

LF – A. Soriano, Cubs (136/8)… It’s tough to know where to start here. There’s the total value, after all 136 million is a lot of money (I mean, obviously not for me, but for most people). There’s the length; eight years for a player who’s older than you think (31) and who’s game relies on speed. And finally, there’s the fit. What the Cubs needed more than anything this offseason, was to improve their anemic on base percentage (.319 as a team last year, by far the worst in the National League). Soriano, for all his 40/40 abilities, had a career best .351 OBP last year, which was 42 points higher than the year before. This does not bode well long term.

CF – J. Pierre, Dodgers (44/5)… This was a difficult choice between Pierre and Gary Matthew Jr. to whom the Angels bestowed 50 million for five years. Both are terrible contracts for guys who are overrated; Pierre because he hasn’t been good since the Marlins won the World Series, and Matthews because he had very obvious “contract year” production last year. But, I give the nod to Pierre because the Dodgers had better in-house options. Matt Kemp is a future all star, if you believe that he needs another year of seasoning, then re-sign Kenny Lofton for one year, don’t give a leadoff hitter, who doesn’t walk (258 in 7 seasons) a five year deal. Worst of all, the Dodgers already have a leadoff hitter, and while Pierre’s lauded as a great base runner, he’s been gunned down 27% of the time for his career.

RF – C. Lee, Astros (100/6)… One of the worst position deals of the offseason. The Astros identified a legitimate need, and promptly went and overpaid, for too many years, at the expense of their team strength (bye, bye Andy Pettitte, send us one of those NY City post cards with all the cabs on it…). Lee can’t move in the outfield (he should be a DH) and while he’s a solid hitter, he’s not exactly Albert Pujols (whose deal mirrors Lee’s to the dollar, but with an extra year). Lee wont make Brad Ausmus, Adam Everett, or Craig Biggio (sorry Bigg, you were great, but you’re now terrible) see the ball any better, which means the Astros offence will still stink.

DH – J. Guillen, Mariners (5.5/1)… Does Bill Bavasi not remember signing Carl Everett to a eerily similar contract last winter? Or cutting him in the summer?

SP – B. Zito, Giants (126/7)… Can we please, please, please stop bringing up Zito’s Cy Young as justification for Zito’s contract. I mean honestly, the Cy that year should have gone to Pedro anyhow, but even if we believe that Zito was the American League’s best pitcher in 2002, what, exactly, does that have to do with 2007? Pat Hentgen won the Cy Young in 1996, should the Jays offer him a contract this year? Yes, Zito’s made every start of his career, but he’s a curve ball pitcher, which means his arm is always at risk of a wrong tweak. Further, his strikeout rate has dropped three successive years, which means he’s increasingly reliant on his team’s defense. This isn’t so bad, because the Giants players were great fielders… in their twenties.

SP – G. Meche, Royals (55/5)… The biggest winner of this offseason is J.P. Ricciardi, who no longer looks so questionable for giving A.J. Burnett 55 million over five years. I understand that the Royals have been so bad for so long that they need to overpay, and that the Tigers did the same thing with Magglio Ordonez three years ago, but Ordonez was a injury plagued good player. In his four full seasons in the Majors, Meche has had an ERA worse than the league average every time. That’s what we call below average. I was a C- student in high school, can I have 55 million?

SP – T. Lilly, Cubs (40/4)… One week I hear that the Jays are close to signing both Meche and Lilly, the next they’ve combined for 95 million over 9 years. Yikes. Lilly’s not a terrible pitcher, but he throws a lot of pitches, which means he rarely goes past six innings. This puts a lot of stress on a team’s bullpen and makes Lilly’s contract questionable. Still going to the woeful NL central from the Power East will probably make the contract seem like a deal.

SP – J. Marquis, Cubs (21/3)… Lets see, last year the Cardinals won 83 games, miraculously made the playoffs (see woeful NL central comment from above) and yet when Tony LaRussa scratched out his post season roster he left Marquis’ name off. So, he wasn’t good enough to play in the postseason for an 83 win team, but the Cubs thought he was good enough to pay 21 million. Ri’iight.

SP – A. Eaton, Phillies (24.5/3)… Eaton’s deal set the offseason pitching market. When a guy whose career ERA+ is 92 gets 8 million for three years, then suddenly 40 million for Lilly seems solid. It’s not. Neither was Eaton’s.

RP – C. Bradford, Orioles (10.5/3)… The Orioles knock another one out of the park. Danys Baez is pretty bad, but at least he saved 41 games two years ago. Jamie Walker has too many years on his deal, but he’s a lefty. Bradford’s a righty specialist and giving him three plus million a year for three years is a serious groaner.

Every night, these “Cubs” could trot out a lineup, which looks something like this (2006 stats):

1) J. Pierre, cf (.292 Avg., .330 OBP, .380 Slg.), 8.8 million salary.
2) A. Soriano, lf (.277, .351, .560), 17 million.
3) A. Huff, 3b (.250, .341, .478), 6.6 million.
4) C. Lee, rf (.322, . 369, .525), 16.6 million.
5) S. Hillenbrand, 1b (.277, .313, .441), 6.5 million.
6) J. Guillen, dh (.216, .276, .398), 5.5 million.
7) B. Molina, c (.284, .319, .467), 5.3 million.
8) A. Kennedy, 2b (.273, .334, .384), 3.3 million.
9) A. Gonzalez, ss (.255, .292, .397), 4.6 million.

I feel confident in prognosticating that this team isn’t going to be winning the AL East any time soon. Heck, forget about the Yankees and Sox, I don’t even think they’re beating the Devil Rays. I mean their great 17 million dollar ace is only 6-3 lifetime against the Rays, and midway through the season, Jose Guillen will be arrested for smashing a chair over Shea Hillenbrand's head…

If these were the bad, then check back on Monday for the good. They’re a little older, a little creakier, but their pitchers actually throw strikes and their hitters have been known to take a walk once in a while.