The Suns Are Hot, Could they Be Hotter?

They’re on pace for 64 wins, and if you remember that they started the season 1-5, then it’s plausible that they are closer to a 70 win team than a 60 win team. They put together a 15 game winning streak and are now in the midst of 11 straight wins. So, despite being a good, exciting team the past two seasons, this year, the Phoenix Suns are down right scary. Scorching hot and readying themselves for an eventual Western Conference showdown with equally hot Dallas. Yet, even with all the success they’ve had, a man with Sports on the Brain cannot help but wonder, could they be better? Well, yes, yes they could.

The one area that the Suns have hurt themselves during the Colangelo/D’Antoni reign is in regards to their draft picks. Specifically, being somewhat cavalier in trading them away. On some level this was a cost cutting measure --- a short term saving --- which allowed them to add another piece, but next year the Suns’ payroll jumps to 76 million, well within the luxury tax realm, which owner Robert Sarver wants to avoid. Worst of all, those draft day maneuverings have actually left the team poorer talent-wise than if they’d just selected a player and spent the draft slot money on him. So, lets look back at each of the last three drafts, what the Suns could have done, and what they did instead:


2004 – Given the Suns turnaround in 04/05, it’s hard to disagree with anything that they did in the 04 offseason, but… disagree we shall. After aborting the Stephon Marbury era in early January, the Suns finished the season 29-53 and were awarded the 7th pick in the draft. The Marbury trade had cleared a bunch of cap room, enough for the Suns to make their big offer to Steve Nash. At the time, everyone assumed that the Suns would be in on the bidding for Kobe Bryant and when they traded the 7th pick (and it’s guaranteed money) to the Bulls, it looked as though they were just getting the extra room necessary for Kobe. But the Suns, wisely, never made an offer for Kobe, instead instantly wooing Nash. The extra cash was used on Quentin Richardson, who was an important piece for the Suns that year. Still, the Suns traded him after becoming leery of his wonky back and sporadic play. Who could the Suns have had with that 7th pick? Well, they could have used it on Josh Smith. He wouldn’t have helped much that first year, but he’d look awful good in their lineup now. Or they could have taken Andre Iguodala who’s athleticism and defense could immediately have been used, or they could just have drafted Luol Deng, who’s on the verge of his first all star appearance, and making the Bulls look pretty savvy.

2005 – All those draft day moves from 2004 come to fruition in ‘05. The Bulls suddenly became good and the pick they sent the Suns was only 21st. The Suns ended the Richardson era by moving him to New York for Kurt Thomas, but in a move that I never understood, the Suns tossed in that little knucklehead Nate Robinson, whom they’d drafted with that 21st pick. Thomas for Richardson seemed pretty even, if the Knicks had to have Robinson, then the Suns should have received better compensation. Of course, if they draft Deng, then they don’t need to make the trade in the first place. So what should they have done with that pick? Well, I think it’s obvious that David Lee’s the best player to come out of the second half of that draft. Still, given how much of a man crush Isaiah had/has on Robinson, drafting and then trading him to the Knicks would have allowed the Suns to add Lee, at a lower salary slot than 21, while picking up a future second round pick as well.


2006 – After the Joe Johnson trade brought Phoenix the Lakers’ 21st draft pick (at some point sent to Atlanta, I could look it up and tell you when, and for whom, but… I’m feeling particularly lazy today), the Suns had two picks in the 2006 draft, which would have been a good time to reload with some young guys, but instead they traded both picks. They compounded that mistake when they used those two roster spots on point guard Marcus Banks and shooting guard Eric Piatkowski. The two journeymen are costing the Suns 4.8 million this year, while Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez would only be costing them 2.6 million. Worse, Banks has another 17.28 million remaining on his contract. Trading Rodriguez was surprising, given the Suns’ European leanings, and the Spaniards play of late makes it look especially bad. The Suns gave Piatkowski a two year 3 million deal, but thus far he’s appeared in two games for five total minutes. Five minutes, no points, one and a half million in the bank. Nice. Banks has the far worse contract and while he’s played in more than two games, he’s averaging only 9.8 minutes and has run up a recent string of DNPs. His PER thus far has been a pathetic 9.63, which pales compared to Rodriguez’s 17.15. So, even if the Suns make the Rondo trade, to shave Brian Grants’ salary from the books (while also acquiring a pick in 2007), they should have kept Rodriguez and steered way clear of Banks and Piatkowski.

What Does it all mean?

Trading away all those picks and instead signing overvalued, unproductive veterans has done two negative things to the Suns. Firstly, it’s made them extremely dependent upon six players. Obviously, if Steve Nash goes down for any prolonged period, the Suns will be doomed, likewise Shawn Marion, but an injury to Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, or Leadnro Barbosa will also be difficult for the Suns to cover. Even the injury to Kurt Thomas will hurt, because the Suns have nobody viable to absorb his 18 minutes of rugged interior play. The second, and ultimately more divisive effect, is that the contracts of Banks, Piatkowski, and Thomas put the Suns into the tax, which likely precipitates their moving Shawn Marion. Why Marion? Well, Diaw and Barbosa will be base year compensation players next year, making them virtually unmovable, the Suns aren’t trading the two-time MVP and face of their franchise, so Nash is staying, and while he’s still recovering from micro-fracture surgery, Amare Stoudemire is that transcendent talent you only trade when things get desperate. Had they drafted Deng, Lee, and Rodriguez, then the Suns would have a rotation that ran nine deep, their salary number this year would be only 57, 590, 952. Better still, next year it would be 69 million, seven and a half million less than it’s currently slated to be.

Why Does Any of This Matter:

Sure, hindsight’s 20/20, so obviously it’s easy now to say that the Suns should have held onto those guys and avoided the contracts given to Quentin Richardson (which is now costing them Kurt Thomas’ money), Banks, and Piatkowski, but what’s done is done, right? Well, yes, but this is a classic example of, if you don’t learn from your past, you’re doomed to repeat it… The Suns, through the Joe Johnson to Atlanta deal, and the trade with Boston, potentially have three picks in this draft. Atlanta’s pick is top three protected, but right now their lottery odds put them fifth. Just good enough to hand a top pick to Phoenix. Of course, lady luck could smile upon the Hawks and the ping pong balls could jump them up, but if said lady looks the other way, then Phoenix needs to learn from the Deng deal and use that top pick to take an asset who will not destroy their cap for another five years. The two other picks wont bring a top talent, but in a draft which is thought to potentially be the deepest ever, the picks should bring two rotation guys. They don’t have to be great, but with a cap value just below a million each they’ll benefit the club by being cost effective. If the Suns really don’t want to add a player now, they should look to the example of their Western Conference rival, San Antonio, who for years have used their top pick on somebody with great potential, who plays overseas. That way, the player doesn’t affect their current cap situation, instead developing on somebody else’s budget. Eventually arriving two or three years later ready to help the club.