Thursday, January 25, 2007

Step up to the Q-Dime and Have Your Ten Questions Answered...

Tonight on TNT, the NBA announces the fan selections for the all star game. Given that they released a hundred and one results throughout the voting process, there shouldn’t really be a lot of surprises. Maybe a late push helped Allen Iverson catch Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal might have overtaken Chris Bosh, and if there’s a God of voting then maybe the scintillating Agent Zero, Gilbert Arenas, caught the could be scintillating (if he weren’t a weenie) Vince Carter. But basically we know that Yao won the West center spot (and will need an injury replacement) and Shaq the East (and wont), while Wade, Kobe, LeBron, and two of Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Dirk Nowitzki (with the third likely starting for Yao), will deservingly be elected to star. But overall, the whole thing’s a big yawn, so why does the announcement matter? Well, it only matters because it marks the halfway point of the NBA season. Most teams have passed the 41 game barrier, and are now focusing on positioning themselves for the stretch run, which makes it a perfect time to cover a bunch of topics with a little edition of the Q- Dime. Ten relevant questions, ten mediocre answers. Enjoy:

1) Should Steve Nash win three straight MVPs when Michael Jordan never did?
There are people in some quarters arguing that Nash, despite having his best season, shouldn’t win a third straight MVP award given that only three players have ever done so. Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird are the NBA’s only triple time winners, an achievement they twice robbed Michael Jordan of. Obviously, that line of thinking is absurd, the sort of antiquated drivel which should have voters stripped of their privileges, but… whatever. Nash has been nothing short of phenomenal in making sure that the Suns didn’t crumble apart while trying to add Amare Stoudemire’s larger than life presence back into the lineup. Nobody expected them to be playing at this high of a level already. Still, Dirk Nowitzki is once again leading an extremely formidable Mavericks team. A team which has gone 33-4 after starting 0-4. Apparently there was a mild finals hangover in Dallas, but the big German sobered everybody up and has shown an innate ability to let the game develop over three quarters, before taking over in the fourth. A trademark MVP move. For what it’s worth, Nash gave his vote to Nowitzki, although that shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s followed Nash. Here’s how I’d rank them at the half way point.
5) Tim Duncan – The big Spur is still great, but his team has noticeably slipped behind the Suns and Mavs.
4) Gilbert Arenas – I’m not convinced that Dwayne Wade wont catch him, but right now, Arenas is the East’s MVP. Too bad the East’s so bad that leaves him fourth.
3) Kobe Bryant – I don’t like him and I don’t even really respect him, but grudgingly I admit that he remains the best player in the NBA and without him the Lakers would be vying for Greg Oden, not for home court in the playoffs.
2) Steve Nash – Ironically, his numbers dipped briefly after going back to his preferred ball, still he’s shooting .537 from the floor and .498 from behind the arc, which explains how he can average 19.6 points, while still dishing 11.6 assists.
1) Dirk Nowitzki – If the Suns pass the Mavs in the second half, then perhaps this will switch, because these two are so close that the best record has to be considered the tie breaker, not how many consecutive MVPs Nash already has.

2) Should Carmelo Anthony be an All Star, even though he was suspended 15 games?
There are two sides to this argument, first that Anthony shouldn’t be included because he missed fifteen games after slapping Jared Jeffries. The other side is that Anthony should be an all star, because he’s leading the league in scoring with 31.6 per game. So, which side is right? Neither. They’re both wrong. It seems like months that Anthony was out, yet he shouldn’t be excluded just because he missed time. On the other hand, his 31.6 per game average wasn’t really helping the Nuggets in those 15 games he missed, so don’t credit per game averages to argue his case. More important is his season totals. The West isn’t struggling for players to fill the all star roster, so the games Anthony has appeared in have to be good enough to warrant his inclusion over players who haven’t missed anything. For instance, and just for arguments sake: was his play in 24 games enough to include him over somebody like Shawn Marion, who hasn’t scored as much per game, but continues to be integral for the NBA’s second best team. By scoring 758 points, Anthony’s helped the Nuggets to 15 wins in 24 games, but Marion has produced 793 points (plus defense and rebounding) in helping the Suns to 34 win in 42 games. I’m not saying that Anthony’s shouldn’t be an all star, if he’s been good enough in 24 games he should be in, but just because he’s averaging 31 points doesn’t make the decision for us.

3) What Happened to the Spurs? And the Pistons?
Ok, now, obviously neither of these teams are in risk of missing the playoffs, but they also clearly have fallen well behind the Mavericks and Suns in the title chase. Lets take the Spurs first. While they’ve already lost 14 games, Greg Popovich is clearly more interested in preserving the big three for June than compiling a few extra wins right now. I think that he believes, and he’s probably right, that the Spurs can beat either Phoenix or Dallas, in their own buildings, as long as everybody is healthy. So while they’d love to have home court advantage, it’s not nearly as important as health. Still, the Spurs could use some fresh legs on the perimeter --- Bruce Bowen in particular is showing the effects of Papa Time (similar to Papa Smurf, but without the red pants… I know, women and children have been known to gasp) --- really what they need, is for it to be playoff time, when Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker each play ten more minutes a game than they play now.

The Pistons on the other hand are unraveling. If they didn’t play in the Eastern Conference, then this might already be a lost season, but as it stands now, by putting together a good run at the right time, they can still win the East and make it to the finals. However, I’m doubtful. The confusing part, is that Flip Saunders --- who was a players coach in Minnesota --- has seemingly lost Rasheed Wallace, a few months after his relationship with Ben Wallace was a catalyst in Big Ben leaving for Chicago. Saunders is letting the team open up on offence, changing them from Larry Brown’s grind it out defensive team, to an up-tempo offensive team, but still Flip’s apparently rubbing his guys the wrong way. Call me crazy, but I’m not convinced that Chris Webber is the balm to this situation.

4) Who won that Indiana – Golden State eight man trade?
This season, probably neither team will be drastically better. If Al Harrington is enough to push the Warriors past Minnesota and into their first playoff appearance in 12 years, then they can clearly chalk it up as a success. However, the Pacers were looking for two things. One, getting Stephen Jackson as far away from their team as possible; and two, acquiring Ike Diogu, whom they really wanted last year when they traded Ron Artest. Diogu may work well beside Jermaine O’Neal, or he might be a long term replacement if the Pacers look to completely depart themselves from the O’Neal/Artest era by trading Jermaine. Either way, Indiana was already a weak playoff team in the East and Diogu, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy wont improve them enough to change that. So, short term the Warriors could see better results, but long term Diogu’s development will determine whether it’s a win for the Pacers.

5) Should the Bulls trade Luol Deng and Ben Gordon for Pau Gasol?
Ahhh heck, this deserves it’s own column, so check back tomorrow for a comprehensive answer to Bulls, their young trade chips, and what they should do with them.

6) Anybody else interesting on the block?
In a word, no. But that doesn’t mean that nobody will be traded. Two years ago, the deadlines were shocking; massive deals, surprising big names, cap clearing moves. While the big names right now are Corey Maggette and Mo Peterson, Vince Carter could move. Jason Kidd might move, although I doubt that. Portland could trade Zach Randolph, the Kings are a makeover waiting to happen, Grant Hill’s expiring deal and Darko’s frowning face could be had in Orlando, and anyone on Miami’s roster not named Shaq, Alonzo, or Dwayne could be moved. That’s what makes the NBA trade deadline so enticing. Nobody knows what’s going to happen, but it’s usually intriguing.

7) What the heck’s going on with Owners?
A week ago, Utah Jazz owner Larry Miller was blowing hard on his radio show about Andrei Kirilenko being on thin ice, and two days ago Timberwolves owner Glenn Taylor fired coach Dwayne Casey, because he apparently thinks his team is Conference finals material. Uhmmm, boys? Are you remembering to take your pills in the morning? You should, they’re real helpful. Firstly, Miller: shut up. Seriously, shut up. For the good of your team, your franchise, and your franchise’s best player, shut up. Kirilenko having a terrible season. He’s seemingly forgotten how to put the ball through the hole, which is an important attribute for a professional basketball player, but he’s still your best player, he’s playing out of position, and he answered a reporters question when he had a microphone shoved in his face. Even if he is on thin ice, what the heck does that mean? Are you going to release him? Uhmmm… no. Fine him? Not for wanting a larger role in the offence. Cast him to the back of the bench ne’er to be seen again? Not while he continues to be your only consistent defensive presence and Jerry Sloan continues to be your coach. So, basically, your only option is to trade him, but by opening your stupidly large mouth, all that you are doing is hurting his trade value. Just like last year, when you kept saying similarly stupid things about Carlos Boozer. Statements, you have now, seemingly forgotten…. Seriously, shut up.

Then there’s Taylor… Ok, no Casey may or may not have been the best guy for the job, but he’d made the Wolves contribute a consistent defensive effort, he’d helped them secure the eighth spot in the playoffs, and before a recent four game swoon (partly induced by a Kevin Garnett ejection and subsequent suspension), he’d won 10 of 13 games. Taylor, if you’re looking to point the finger for why your team wont be in the conference finals this year, then walk into the bathroom, look into the mirror at that handsome face, and get your index finger up, because you’re the culprit. You’re the guy who has let Kevin McHale hang around for three years too many. You’re the guy who lost all those draft picks with an under the table deal for Joe Smith (Smith? Really?). You’re the guy who didn’t want to re-sign Chauncey Billups. You’re the guy who ultimately signed off on rich multi-year deals for Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Mark Madsen, Eddie Griffith, Trenton Hassell, Mike James and, perhaps worst of all, Wally Szczerbiak and Michael Olowokandi (who were traded for the equally onerous Mark Blount and Ricky Davis). Those guys just aren’t very good. They aren’t Leandro Barbosa, Steve Nash, or Raja Bell. They aren’t Jason Terry, Josh Howard, or Jerry Stackhouse. You don’t have a team worthy of the conference finals, but a team worthy of the lottery. Do us all a favor, free Kevin Garnett from basketball purgatory and then fire yourself.

8) Will the Suns ever lose again?
Probably, but I’m not actually certain of this. If you remove their overtime loss to Dallas and that game in Washington where Gilbert Arenas’ desperation three won it at the buzzer, then the Suns just won their 32nd game. That’s sick. Like all time great, sick. Of course, the Mavs are themselves working on some stupid winning streaks. Three different ones over eight games. So that’s crazy too. My best guess, the Suns drop one of their next three on the road, just because hotel beds get uncomfortable after a while, visiting team’s sometimes don’t get the bounces they should. Still, if they can take their traveling road show past the Bucks, Cavs, and Wolves, (each easily winnable), then that sets up a really intriguing game in their return home February 1st against the Spurs. That’d be for number 19 and a real place in history.

9) Ok, enough of this pre-amble, pull up your panties for prediction time, who makes the playoffs?
The first six in the West could be set in stone, because while the order might be joggled, Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, the Lakers, and Houston will all be playing in June. Denver’s should be fine now that Anthony’s back, unless of course he decides to “punch” anyone again, or Iverson and him cannot get along, but I don’t foresee either being a problem. Minnesota, The Clippers and Golden State are going to be fighting for that final spot. Each should have plenty of motivation, and while I’d have given the edge to the Wolves two days ago, I think the Casey firing was dumb. The talent of each is comparable, so lets go with the best coach and have Don Nelson’s Warriors break a decade plus of ineptitude.

The East is a little more open to interpretation, but still there are some forgone conclusions. Washington was surprising conference leader at the half way mark, they might not hold maintain that, but they’ll easily qualify. Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit are all in, even if they’re each a little disappointing. Orlando and Indiana will each limp into the playoffs, Orlando because they’re still young and Indiana, because they’ve been neutered by Dr. Kavork-Artest. The Atlantic division is apparently guaranteed a spot, which probably goes to New Jersey… although the injury to Richard Jefferson and uncertainty of Kidd and Carter opens the door to Toronto. Finally, the Heat, despite playing appalling first half basketball wont miss out on the playoffs now that Shaq’s back.

10) Ok, then who makes the finals?
I see no reason to move from my preseason Bulls – Suns pick and just like then, I like the Suns to show that fun, fast paced hoops can

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