Garnet, Gasol and the Running of the Bulls...

The post-Jerry Krause Chicago Bulls regime has been very methodical in re-making the roster into a tough, defensive oriented team with roster flexibility and tantalizing youngsters. It has been, by and large, an extremely successful rebuilding process. While Krause could never escape the looming presence of Michael Jordan, the current Bulls regime is almost never faced with comparisons to MJ, Phil, and Scottie. In part, that’s because it has now been almost a decade since they won that last title, in part because their GM was an integral part of three of those six titles, and in part because after five last place finishes in six years, they’ve made the playoffs two years running. What they’ve lacked however, and what they still lack, is that one tantalizing superstar talent. That one guy who can take over a game when nobody else is playing well, who can get tough baskets late in close contests, and who can draw questionable calls on the road. For that reason, despite the youngsters success, the Bulls roster has been subjected to never ending trade speculation. It must be a rare morning when Ben Gordon opens his paper and doesn’t see his name linked in a deal for someone. The most rampant (and seemingly, the most logical) rumors have always been for Minnesota’s Kevin Garnett, but in the past week, a potential trade for Memphis’ Pau Gasol has had rumor mongers frothing at the mouth.

Currently, the Bulls are 25-19 and 5th in the Eastern conference. If the season ended today, they’d have a tantalizing first round match up against the winner of the Atlantic division, a series in which the Bulls would have home court advantage and be heavy, heavy favorites. Of course, they’re also only a game back of leading the tight Eastern conference and, given their 2-9 start might be odds on favorites to ultimately don that dubious crown. So at what point do the Bulls say, ‘nope, we’re happy with what we have.’ It seems, that since they have so many assets, teams hold them over a barrel in demanding prospects. Gasol for PJ Brown’s expiring deal, Deng and Gordon? Unless you’re trading with the Knicks, there’s no precedence for such a bounty of talent in exchange for an all star. The Lakers only got Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant’s atrocious contract for Shaq. The Raptors even less for Vince Carter, and the Magic got Steve “No Longer the Franchise” Francis (who, naturally, they eventually shipped out to… the Knicks). Deng’s name was floated (along with Gordon) in the first rumored Gasol deals, but Deng’s shooting 52% from the floor, grabbing 6.5 rebounds and playing solid D. He’s scoring, shooting percentage and PER have increased every year he’s been in the league, so at what point do the Bulls say, ‘sorry Minnesota, you waited too long, you can have Tyrus Thomas, but Deng’s untouchable…’ And what of the Bulls other players, who should be available and who’s untouchable? Lets break down the roster, see who’s available, how much they could bring back, and ultimately, who’s on the Bulls wish list.

The Roster:

P.J. Brown – Brown’s expiring contract is obviously the central piece in any deal for a superstar. He wants out and the Bulls would happily move him.

Luol Deng – If he’s not untouchable, he should be. Deng’s still a baby (21) and in his third season might be a first time all star. He does everything: scores, rebounds, and defends. Last offseason I’d have given him up for Garnett, but now? Maybe.

Chris Duhon – The Bulls liked Duhon enough to match his contract offer from Toronto two years ago. They like his defense and ball handling enough to keep putting him in the starting lineup when Gordon struggles, but his woeful shooting has shunted him back to the bench and damaged his value.

Ben Gordon – The Bulls leading scorer is tricky. He was doing an awesome Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench to contribute 20 plus points every night. Now he’s back in the starting lineup and thus far has continued to consistently contribute. He can score from anywhere, but he doesn’t go to the line often and in the past has been inconsistent. I still believe that he could be had in the right deal, but he’s certainly making it harder for the Bulls to deal him.

Kirk Hinrich – He signed an extension to his rookie deal, which makes him difficult to trade for the next two years, plus he’s the personification of what Jim Paxson and Scott Skiles want from their team. He’s as close to untouchable as anyone on the roster.

Andres Nocioni – The Bulls play best with Nocioni at power forward opposite Deng, but his natural position is small forward. He’s a free agent after this year, which could be a deterrent to a team acquiring him, but he’s also a hard working, hustle player who shoots 40 percent from three. A player the Bulls would love to hold onto, but also a possible inclusion in any deal.

Thabo Sefolosha – The NBA’s first Swiss player has a tough defensive oriented attitude that the Bulls love, but obviously if they can get him into a deal instead of Gordon, then it’s au revoir, or… tschüs, or… ciao, or good bye in one of the 186 other languages spoken in Switzerland.

Tyrus Thomas – Like Gordon, Thomas is the main piece the Bulls could use to entice potential trade partners. He’s incredibly young, and offensively very raw, and thus only playing 9 minutes a game, but many draft experts felt he had the most upside of anyone in the 2006 draft.

Ben Wallace – With his massive contract, there are only a few teams who could acquire him, but despite the “headband” incident, Wallace is the man the Bulls brain trust want anchoring their team. He’s not going anywhere.

Others: Malik Allen and Mike Sweetney both have expiring contracts that could easily be added to match salaries in any deal, while Viktor Khrypya and Adrian Griffin are both pine players, who could be tossed into any trade.

What the Bulls Want:

There are five players out there who suit what the Bulls need and might be available. I’ll list them here, along with a reasonable offer the Bulls could make, in the order that Paxson and Skiles would like them, and a percentage of likelihood that a trade happens:

1) Kevin Garnett for P. Brown, T. Thomas, A. Nocioni, M. Allen, T. Sefolosha, and draft pick.
What, When Where, Why: At the draft, the Wolves could have recouped the number two pick (which the Bulls turned into Thomas), Deng, and Gordon for Garnett. The Wolves wanted to take one more crack with Garnett, which is fine and everything, but that’ll cost them Deng. Still, Garnett isn’t going anywhere until he demands it, which thus far he’s shown no proclivity to do… 15%.

2) Pau Gasol for Brown, Thomas, T. Sefolosha, and the pick.
WWWW: Right now the Icon, Jerry West, is fielding offers from everybody and their dog for Garnett (incidentally, Isaiah Thomas’ dog decided against bidding on Pau and instead tried to acquire Stromile Swift, Brian Cardinal, and Damon Stoudemire, for David Lee, but the salaries didn’t match up). Nobody can offer what the Bulls could, although I think this is the most the Bulls should offer. It’s a good deal for both teams. If the Grizzlies are going to acquiesce to Gasol’s trade request, this would give them massive cap space, two lottery picks in this draft, and two young pieces to add to Rudy Gay… 50%.

3) Paul Pierce for Brown, Gordon, Nocioni, and the pick.
WWWW: Why would Boston make this deal? It fully commits them to rebuilding, by giving them cap space and two more young pieces to add to Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Delonte West and the rest. While the Bulls first desire is a post player, Chicago essentially trades Gordon for Pierce, who right now does everything a little better than Ben. Why wouldn’t the Celtics make this deal, because they seem caught in a frightful state of indecision that will squander the best years of Pierce and leave them permanently fighting for the last playoff spot … 15%.

4) Jermaine O’Neal for Brown, Thomas, M. Sweetney, Allen, Sefolosha, and the pick.
WWWW: O’Neal’s defensive intensity would certainly fit with the Bulls, but he’s expensive and thus would require a lot of pieces. Not sure it’s worth it for Chicago, who would balk at paying O’Neal 18 million, when they have to start paying their youngsters soon. For their part, the Pacers, even if they decide to blow things up, wouldn’t want to trade Jermaine within the division… 10%.

5) Ray Allen for Brown, Sefolosha, C. Duhon, Sweetney, Allen, and the pick.
WWWW: Seattle is trapped in ownership uncertainty, which is handcuffing their management team, so any move to rebuild is unlikely, which, of course, is too bad given that they need to take action, lest they spend five years in the 33-38 win phase. Allen’s a stud, but he’s older and has never been known for his defense. Clearly of the guys on this list, he’s the bottom choice… 10%

What will happen?

I think the Bulls will make a deal for Gasol. They’ve seemingly been waiting on Garnett for years, but have to be giving up on that dream. If a Gasol trade does indeed come to pass, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. If West can wrangle either Gordon or Deng from Paxson, along with the draft pick and Thomas, then I’d see the deal as a win for Memphis, but even if Paxson holds to his guns, the Grizzlies can still get a good package for the future. And as the Bulls have shown, the first step in rebuilding is to clear away salary and stockpile assets, then you have options as your franchise moves forward.