Saturday, January 06, 2007

The Worst of the Worst, Together on One Team...

While Christmas decorations remain scattered about the apartment, the gleam is off them, they no longer look festive, now they look misplaced, droopy. All of which must mean it’s January and after a long festive holiday break, it’s time to get back to the grind. Christmas has passed, presents were given, but hopefully you didn’t cripple yourself under excessive financial restrictions. Hopefully you haven’t committed fifty-five million to a middling fourth starter just to appease your children. Or given another three year deal, to another late thirties players. Of course if you did, then there was always boxing week for your family to return that junk. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Major League Baseball’s general managers, who in their pre-Christmas excitement went out and spent with a fervor not seen since started selling her unmentionables. The result? Some contracts that make Manny Ramirez’s remaining 40 million look like change recovered from between the couch cushions. How bad was the spending? Well, baseball executives dropped more than 700 million, which is only slightly less than the Nurse spent on shoes last year. And just because we’ve got Sports on the Brain, we thought, Hhmmm… how bad would a team comprised of this offseason’s worst contracts be…? Just for fun we’ll name the team the Cubs (what? That’s not indicative of me thinking that the Cubs spent a lot of money poorly, or anything, I just like small, furry animals).

C – B. Molina, Giants (16 million/3 years)… After a year of watching Molina rumble around the bases in a Jays uniform I can confidently say, “thank G@! that’s over.” Once a great defender, Molina is now too creaky to move to the pitch, and his jump to throw out base runners is glacial. He can’t run the bases, which is fine in SF, where nobody else can either, but he also doesn’t walk, hit for power, or do any of those other things that San Francisco’s old, creaky outfielder still does.

1B – S. Hillenbrand, (Angels 6.5/1)… There’s a great quote from an underappreciated former TV show, Sports Night: "I understand what makes a woman think that any man is better than nothing. I'll just never understand what makes any woman think she's got nothing." That’s how I feel about the Hillenbrand signing, I get that the Angels needed a bat after Juan Rivera broke his leg, but what made them think they needed a surly, supercilious, power deficient corner infielder who doesn’t walk, when they have plenty of reasonable replacements from the minors?

2B – A. Kennedy, Cardinals (10/3)… Yes, the Cardinals seemingly had great success with another former Angels middle infielder who was arriving after an off year, but two points here: 1) the World Series MVP isn’t as good, or as plucky, as St. Louis columnists would have you believe. 2) Kennedy’s production has been declining for two years now, that’s not an off year, it’s a regression.

SS – A. Gonzalez, Reds (14/3)… Any Jays fan can tell you that there were no worthwhile shortstops on the market this offseason (Royce Clayton? Really? Him?), and yes, the Reds needed to upgrade their defense at short, but 14 million for a player whose career OBP is .292? His career average is TWO-NINE-TWO…. I think my eye’s twitching, lets just move on.

3B – A. Huff, Orioles (20/3)… Let me see, the Orioles are already overpaying one declining third baseman, now they’ve decided to add another? Smart. Maybe he’ll bump the incomparable Kevin Millar off first, or fight for one of two outfield spots with Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, and youngster Val Majewski (I’m taking a leap of faith that the Orioles are smart enough to keep Nick Markakis in left). Or I guess he can DH. Twenty million for a player who really has no discernable spot in your lineup? Wow, another stellar move from baseball’s most confounding organization.

LF – A. Soriano, Cubs (136/8)… It’s tough to know where to start here. There’s the total value, after all 136 million is a lot of money (I mean, obviously not for me, but for most people). There’s the length; eight years for a player who’s older than you think (31) and who’s game relies on speed. And finally, there’s the fit. What the Cubs needed more than anything this offseason, was to improve their anemic on base percentage (.319 as a team last year, by far the worst in the National League). Soriano, for all his 40/40 abilities, had a career best .351 OBP last year, which was 42 points higher than the year before. This does not bode well long term.

CF – J. Pierre, Dodgers (44/5)… This was a difficult choice between Pierre and Gary Matthew Jr. to whom the Angels bestowed 50 million for five years. Both are terrible contracts for guys who are overrated; Pierre because he hasn’t been good since the Marlins won the World Series, and Matthews because he had very obvious “contract year” production last year. But, I give the nod to Pierre because the Dodgers had better in-house options. Matt Kemp is a future all star, if you believe that he needs another year of seasoning, then re-sign Kenny Lofton for one year, don’t give a leadoff hitter, who doesn’t walk (258 in 7 seasons) a five year deal. Worst of all, the Dodgers already have a leadoff hitter, and while Pierre’s lauded as a great base runner, he’s been gunned down 27% of the time for his career.

RF – C. Lee, Astros (100/6)… One of the worst position deals of the offseason. The Astros identified a legitimate need, and promptly went and overpaid, for too many years, at the expense of their team strength (bye, bye Andy Pettitte, send us one of those NY City post cards with all the cabs on it…). Lee can’t move in the outfield (he should be a DH) and while he’s a solid hitter, he’s not exactly Albert Pujols (whose deal mirrors Lee’s to the dollar, but with an extra year). Lee wont make Brad Ausmus, Adam Everett, or Craig Biggio (sorry Bigg, you were great, but you’re now terrible) see the ball any better, which means the Astros offence will still stink.

DH – J. Guillen, Mariners (5.5/1)… Does Bill Bavasi not remember signing Carl Everett to a eerily similar contract last winter? Or cutting him in the summer?

SP – B. Zito, Giants (126/7)… Can we please, please, please stop bringing up Zito’s Cy Young as justification for Zito’s contract. I mean honestly, the Cy that year should have gone to Pedro anyhow, but even if we believe that Zito was the American League’s best pitcher in 2002, what, exactly, does that have to do with 2007? Pat Hentgen won the Cy Young in 1996, should the Jays offer him a contract this year? Yes, Zito’s made every start of his career, but he’s a curve ball pitcher, which means his arm is always at risk of a wrong tweak. Further, his strikeout rate has dropped three successive years, which means he’s increasingly reliant on his team’s defense. This isn’t so bad, because the Giants players were great fielders… in their twenties.

SP – G. Meche, Royals (55/5)… The biggest winner of this offseason is J.P. Ricciardi, who no longer looks so questionable for giving A.J. Burnett 55 million over five years. I understand that the Royals have been so bad for so long that they need to overpay, and that the Tigers did the same thing with Magglio Ordonez three years ago, but Ordonez was a injury plagued good player. In his four full seasons in the Majors, Meche has had an ERA worse than the league average every time. That’s what we call below average. I was a C- student in high school, can I have 55 million?

SP – T. Lilly, Cubs (40/4)… One week I hear that the Jays are close to signing both Meche and Lilly, the next they’ve combined for 95 million over 9 years. Yikes. Lilly’s not a terrible pitcher, but he throws a lot of pitches, which means he rarely goes past six innings. This puts a lot of stress on a team’s bullpen and makes Lilly’s contract questionable. Still going to the woeful NL central from the Power East will probably make the contract seem like a deal.

SP – J. Marquis, Cubs (21/3)… Lets see, last year the Cardinals won 83 games, miraculously made the playoffs (see woeful NL central comment from above) and yet when Tony LaRussa scratched out his post season roster he left Marquis’ name off. So, he wasn’t good enough to play in the postseason for an 83 win team, but the Cubs thought he was good enough to pay 21 million. Ri’iight.

SP – A. Eaton, Phillies (24.5/3)… Eaton’s deal set the offseason pitching market. When a guy whose career ERA+ is 92 gets 8 million for three years, then suddenly 40 million for Lilly seems solid. It’s not. Neither was Eaton’s.

RP – C. Bradford, Orioles (10.5/3)… The Orioles knock another one out of the park. Danys Baez is pretty bad, but at least he saved 41 games two years ago. Jamie Walker has too many years on his deal, but he’s a lefty. Bradford’s a righty specialist and giving him three plus million a year for three years is a serious groaner.

Every night, these “Cubs” could trot out a lineup, which looks something like this (2006 stats):

1) J. Pierre, cf (.292 Avg., .330 OBP, .380 Slg.), 8.8 million salary.
2) A. Soriano, lf (.277, .351, .560), 17 million.
3) A. Huff, 3b (.250, .341, .478), 6.6 million.
4) C. Lee, rf (.322, . 369, .525), 16.6 million.
5) S. Hillenbrand, 1b (.277, .313, .441), 6.5 million.
6) J. Guillen, dh (.216, .276, .398), 5.5 million.
7) B. Molina, c (.284, .319, .467), 5.3 million.
8) A. Kennedy, 2b (.273, .334, .384), 3.3 million.
9) A. Gonzalez, ss (.255, .292, .397), 4.6 million.

I feel confident in prognosticating that this team isn’t going to be winning the AL East any time soon. Heck, forget about the Yankees and Sox, I don’t even think they’re beating the Devil Rays. I mean their great 17 million dollar ace is only 6-3 lifetime against the Rays, and midway through the season, Jose Guillen will be arrested for smashing a chair over Shea Hillenbrand's head…

If these were the bad, then check back on Monday for the good. They’re a little older, a little creakier, but their pitchers actually throw strikes and their hitters have been known to take a walk once in a while.

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