Monday, January 08, 2007

Money Well Spent...

On Friday we looked at what a team of this offseason’s worst contracts would look like and the result was a supremely expensive team, with no real prospects of winning any division, well, except possibly the NL central (Go Cubs woo whoo…). Today we look at the best free agent deals of the winter, which mostly seem to involve older players getting short deals in cozy locations. Sure, they might end the season wearing white pants in Florida, but if they give anything like their past production than these guys will be absolute bargains.

C – M. Piazza, Athletics (8.5 million/1 year)… Ok, really Piazza’s going to play 30 games at catcher and 120 at DH, but hey, if they can give Rafael Palmeiro a gold glove when he only plays 28 games at first, then I can call Piazza my best catching contract of the offseason. Most people thought this was a natural pairing that would happen last year, but instead the A’s brought in Frank Thomas. A year later, the A’s can now use Piazza to spell Kendall for the occasional game, and to hit the ball out of the park, which he will 30 plus times.

1B – N. Garciaparra, Dodgers (18.5/2)… I thought that Nomar might make a great DH for an A.L. team, but that’s not yet the direction Mr. Hamm wishes to go. His contract blocks James Loney from first, but if the Dodgers put Loney out in the outfield (instead of say Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre) and Nomar can stay healthy, then this will be a great deal for the Dodgers.

2B – M. Giles, Padres (3.75/1)… Giles is getting older, his production is declining, and he’s going to a park which makes great hitters average, but in an offseason where everybody got too much money, for too many years the Pads filled a need with solid value.

SS – Nobody, No Team (No Money)… As Jays’ fans can tell you, it was an incredibly bleak market for shortstops (Royce Clayton, seriously? Him?). The Red Sox got the man they wanted, but after his pitiful performance in LA, I’m not sure how you can justify giving Julio Lugo four years at nine million per. All the other deals have been for backups (like, Alex Cora 2 years four million), or absolutely terrible (Gonzalez, Alex: see yesterday’s column. But Clayton? Really? Him?

3B – A. Ramirez, Cubs (75/5)… Considering that Ramirez plays a more important position, is arguably as dangerous a hitter, and is two years younger, it’s nuts that he signed with the same team, but for three years and 61 million fewer dollars than Alfonso Soriano. Good deal for Chicago, bad for Aramis.

RF – J. Drew, Red Sox (70/5)… Ok this deal is still being finalized, and honestly I’m a little mixed about it, but if the Red Sox are bringing in Drew to fill Trot Nixon’s shoes and hit fifth behind Big Papi and Manny, then he will succeed. If he’s replacing Manny then he’ll flop horribly. Drew can play center if Coco Crisp falters, he hits for power, works deep counts, runs the bases well, and always posts great on base percentages. In this market, Drew’s worth 14 million a year, if he’s healthy of course…

CF – K. Lofton, Rangers (6/1)… It was assumed that the Rangers signed Lofton to only a one year deal in the hopes of offering BIG money next winter to Vernon Wells, but then Wells extended his deal with the Jays. It’s still a good deal however. Lofton played just as well last year (at the end of his career) as departed Texas centerfielder Gary Mathews Jr. did in a career year. When Mathews’ production declines to his career norms, then the Angels will be saddled with an onerous contract, while the Rangers will have options next winter when Andrew Jones and Torii Hunter come on the market.

LF – D. Dellucci, Indians (11.5/3)… Dellucci remains one of baseball’s underrated players. He’s left handed, hits for power, works counts, and takes walks. His OPS has improved for three straight years (.783, .880, .899), and this year in the Indians lineup should top .900, which would make him an incredible bargain at less than 4 million per year.

DH – F. Thomas, Blue Jays (18.5/2)… This move was lambasted by pundits when it was consummated at the start of the offseason, but I liked it at the time and I like it more now. Thomas had a very good year in Oakland and his power should be more pronounced in Toronto. Yes, he’s a health risk, but given the contracts handed out this year, 18.5 isn’t a huge commitment.

SP – J. Schmidt, Dodgers (47/3)… The single best contract of the offseason. There were three pitchers considered frontline starters on the market, Barry Zito required 126 million and a 7 year commitment, acquiring Daisuke Matsusaka cost 51.1 million to negotiate and another 52 million for six years, but Schmidt? Schmidt only required a three year commitment and at the (comparatively) reasonable 15.6 million per year.

SP – D. Matsusaka, Red Sox (103/6)… 51.1 million of that 103 total figure is what the Red Sox paid to get exclusive negotiating rights. That’s important because marketing experts estimate that at least thirty of that will immediately come back to the Sox in Japanese merchandising and telecast dollars. The 51 also doesn’t count towards the luxury tax, which wouldn’t matter much if the Royals had posted it, but for the Sox whose salary is approaching 150, it’s important. Getting him penned for 52 over six made the posting fee money well spent.

SP – M. Mussina, Yankees (23/2)… Mussina was one of the five or six best pitchers in the American League last year and the Yanks have him for two more years at the completely reasonable 11.5 each. Even if he regresses, the Moose will be a solid contributor and certainly a far superior pitcher to Gil Meche.

SP – A. Pettitte, Yankees (16/1)… Sure, Pettitte is an injury risk, but simple question: is the Yankees pitching staff stronger with Pettitte than without? Absolutely. Ostensibly he replaces Jaret Wright, who the Yanks shipped to Baltimore. Wright’s postseason record: 3 – 6, 7.07 ERA. Pettitte’s postseason record 18-6, 4.08. Simplistic point? Sure. Discussion closed? Yes.

SP – R. Wolff, Dodgers (8/1)… The Padres got a good deal with Greg Maddux for one year at 10 million, and the Mets a similar one with Tom Glavine, but while those guys are Hall of Famers, they’re also on the wrong side of forty. Wolff is a tough left hander, whose capable of winning 15 games with a sub four ERA. He has health issues, but should benefit from playing in the cavernous Dodger stadium.

RP – E. Gagne, Rangers (6/1)… Ok, chalk this one up to wishful thinking. On some level I think that this is a terrible deal, because I think that Gagne’s arm is done, but six million dollars isn’t a huge investment for Rangers’ owner Tom Hicks, and if Gagne returns at all to his formidable self than his presence makes the entire pitching staff better (it’s the Rivera-corollary).

Since no team is complete without the lineup card, here’s how I’d pencil in the best team:

1) K. Lofton, cf (.301 Avg., .360 OBP, .403 Slg.), 6 million salary.
2) M. Giles, 2b (.261, .341, .387), 3.75 million.
3) J. Drew, rf (.283, .393, .498), 14 million.
4) A. Ramirez, 3b (.291, .352, .561), 15 million.
5) F. Thomas, dh (.270, .381, .545), 9 million.
6) N. Garciaparra, 1b (.303, .367, .505), 9.25 million.
7) D. Dellucci, lf (.292, .369, .530), 3.83 million.
8) M. Piazza, c (.283, .342, .501), 8.5 million.
9) S. Dude, ss (League Averages), minimum salary.

Sure, I freely admit that this team is old, that most of them can no longer run, and that their might be an issue with pharmaceuticals in the clubhouse (Viagra, not steroids…), but they can still rake and their contractual value isn’t stupid, or onerous. Even with whomever playing short, theses boys would beat the snot out of the team from last night while costing the owner 265 million fewer dollars. Hey, wasn’t there some great shortstop out there who once cost about that? Since we’ve got a few extra dimes rolling around in our pocket, what about giving him a call. I hear he’s having a rough time in his current locale, and, after all, we could use a big name at short…

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