Getting the Jays their very own Papelboner...

When the Blue Jays failed to make any moves at the trade deadline, observers of the club believed that things were over, that the Jays were done. In reality, there were no sound deals that the Jays could make. There were no cost effective options out there who could be counted on to help. The Jays couldn’t afford to add to their payroll nor could they afford to sacrifice from their thin minor league system, because the farm system of a moderate payroll team is the single most important factor in long term success. Drafting and properly evaluating players allows a team to replenish their roster with inexpensive options, giving them valuable trading chips and allowing them to restock mid season when injuries hurt the big league roster. Who has been more valuable this season, B.J. Ryan (26s, 1.46 ERA) or Jonathon Papelbon (30, 0.64). Papelbon has been better, but both have been dynamite. So, who’s more valuable? How about the guy earning 340,000 v. the guy earning 4,500,000. Obviously the Red Sox closer is more valuable, because his miniscule salary allows them to allocate a greater portion of funds to other players (say, Manny Ramirez). The Jays have youngsters contributing, but not enough of them and none on the pitching staff. When injuries and ineffectiveness deprived the Jays of three fifths of their starting rotation, they went to the minors, where 6 guys have given them a combined 7 and 18 record in 34 starts. Combined with Josh Towers’ 1-9 record and seven guys have contributed a 8-27 record for the Jays. That’s pretty tough to overcome. For everything that J.P. Ricciardi has done well as GM of the Jays, stock piling the farm team is not one of them. The team has drafted with a strong emphasis on pitching, but has very few top notch pitching prospects. They also spent two first round picks on shortstops, but have a second baseman and an errant thrower to show for the picks. So, here is a look back at the drafts over which J.P. has presided, with the blessed power of 20/20. Given that nobody has fortune of drafting with 20/20 hindsight, this is less a critique of Ricciardi and more an exercise in what if…

2005 – It’s a little early to evaluate anything from the 2005 draft, nobody from the lower ranks have emerged as top prospects and only one player from the first round has made an impact in the Majors (Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, 3rd pick). The Jays selected Ricky Romero with the 6th pick, three spots later the Mets took Mike Pelfrey. Cameron Maybin (top rated prospect by Baseball America) went 10th, Matt Garza (just called up by the Twins) went 25th, and with the 26th choice the Red Sox took Craig Hansen. It’s too early to say who will be the best. Hansen is being touted as the Red Sox’s closer of the future (if they in fact make the bold move of switching Papelbon to the rotation), Garza’s AAA ERA is 2.05, and Pelfrey was being included in rumors for Barry Zito. Romero’s AA ERA is 7.76, he’s young and he might be great, but… With the seventh selection, the Rockies took shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Given the lack of depth at that spot, I take Tulowitzki, who’s defensively superb and patient at the plate.

2004 – Like 2005, it’s too early to see those late round picks work their way through the minors, but the first round has pretty clearly broken down into how good the guys are. The Jays had two picks, the first of which they used on David Purcey (16th) and the second on Zach Jackson (32nd). The draft was notable, because the top two prospects were represented by Scott Boras and fell. Jered Weaver went 12th and Stephen Drew (15th) almost fell to the Jays, but whether Ricciardi would have dealt with Boras remains a great unknown (and for the record, as great as Weaver has been thus far, I’d take Drew). However, given that those two weren’t on the board, the next best player for the Jays’ first pick was Philip Hughes (23rd), who is the Yankees top pitching prospect. Jackson was sent to Milwaukee this offseason, along with Dave Bush and Gabe Gross for Lyle Overbay. Overbay’s a great, underrated player so I’d like to keep the chips necessary to make that deal, but with Huston Street (40th) still on the board, there’s no conscionable way 20/20 takes Jackson. The later stages of this draft are still developing, however the fourth round did produce Casey Jansen (117th) who despite his troubles would still look good in AAA.

2003 – A good draft, with a dominant fourth round pitcher and a 15th round steal, too bad the Jays mostly missed out. Lets start with the first round, where the Jays used the thirteenth pick on Aaron Hill. Chad Billingsley (24th) and Brandon Wood (23rd) are both very highly touted, but neither have yet made an impact in the bigs. Other prospects chosen after Hill include Brian Anderson (15th), Conor Jackson (19th), Eric Duncan (27th), Daric Barton (28th), Carlos Quentin (29th), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36th), and Adam Jones (37th). There’s a lot of talent there, but given the Jays’ needs the only player I’d take over Hill would be Wood. An exceptional shortstop talent, Wood has shown plate discipline and power. I may regret this in a year, but right now, I’ll give the edge to Hill. In three years that might be different, but in July Hill hit .361 and since I am worried about the Jays competing this year, I take his contribution now over Wood’s higher ceiling. In the second, instead of Josh Banks (50th), how about the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier (62nd) who has a .940 OPS in 77 games with the big club this year. In the third I’d still take Marcum, who’s destined to pitch from the pen, but has thrown well in three emergency starts this year. It’s in the fourth that I want to throw up a little in my mouth. Sure, projecting who these guys will become is incredibly hard, perhaps even harder than any other job in sports, but with the 110th pick the Jays took Kurt Isenberg and with the 114th pick the Boston Red Sox took Jonathon “Freaking” Papelbon. Honestly, even if the Jays had screwed him up, getting him would have been worthwhile, if only because I never would’ve read about Bill Simmons’ “Papelboner.” In the sixth J.P. could have tabbed either Matt Kemp (181st) or Brian Bannister (199th) instead of Christian Snaverly. Since Christian is an outfielder I’ll go with the Jays’ supposed need and take Kemp. Finally, way down the draft in the 15th round the Jays selected Vito Chiaravalloti (440th) and while every franchise needs a Vito, fifteen spots later the Cardinals selected Anthony Reyes. I understand that this is an inexact science, but how are 454 people chosen before Reyes? Two years later he’s the number 1 prospect in the Cardinals organization. It isn’t as though he spent five years growing and developing, it’s been TWO years. Then, in the 17th round Ian Kinsler went 496th, WOW, that’s value.

2002 – Ok, 2002 was J.P.’s first draft, and of course it was the draft where the Jays took Russ Adams 14th, one spot before the Mets took Scott Kazmir, which started this whole exercise in futility. There were other good players taken after those two: Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain. Any of those guys would be better than Adams, but none of them will be better than Kazmir. In the second the Jays took Dave Bush, who pitched well last year before being sent to Milwaukee in the Overbay deal. Left on the board were Jon Lester (57th) and Brian McCann (64th), McCann is having a dynamite season for the Braves and Lester won his first six games after being called up. As I said above, I like Overbay and want to keep him, but I think with the talent we’ve compiled on this team we can make that deal with someone else. Since I took a pitcher in the first round, we’ll take a position player here and add a talented young catcher in McCann. In the third, Josh Johnson (113th) over Justin Maureau with the 86th pick. Instead of Adam Peterson with the 116th pick, what about Hayden Penn (136th). With the 146th, why not take Scott Olsen (173rd) instead of Chad Pleiness. In the eighth round, instead of Chris Leonard (236th), why not Brad Halsey (246th). Russell Savickas (266th) has a 7.36 ERA in AAA, Howie Kendrick (294th) had a 1.039 OPS in AAA before being promoted to the Bigs (where he’s hitting .338 after 22 games). Then, in the 10th with the 296th pick, the Jays selected Eric Arnold. Arnold’s 26 and struggling in AA, 24 spots later the Tigers took a 17 year old, who this year is blowing 100 mph fastballs past big league hitters, Joel Zumaya. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… WOW! Finally, in the 17th the Jays took Randy Braun 506th, while both Brandon McCarthy and Russell Martin were on the board. Martin’s tempting, but I’ll take McCarthy because he was pitching in the big leagues last season and thus has excellent trade value.

Just for curiosities sake, I browsed the 2001 draft, which cannot be included because it was conducted by Gord Ash, not Ricciardi. However, it should be noted that the Jays could have secured their corner infielders of the next decade, David Wright (38th) and Ryan Howard (140th). Ash didn’t take those two, so J.P. would have needed to make the same moves he made this offseason to acquire Troy Glaus (Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista). To acquire Overbay, the Jays sent Gabe Gross, Bush, and Jackson. If they don’t draft Bush and Jackson, then they need a replacement. It’s tough to lose a talented young left hander, but with Kazmir and Olsen ready, Gustavo Chacin becomes expendable. And given the value of young lefthanders and his higher ceiling, Chacin likely would have obtained Overbay without the need of a second arm.

The Jays roster to start the season:

C – B. McCann, G. Zaun
1B – L. Overbay, S. Hillenbrand
2B – I. Kinsler
SS – A. Hill, J. McDonald
3B – T. Glaus
RF – A. Rios, E. Hinske
CF – V. Wells
LF – F. Cattalanotto, R. Johnson

SP – R. Halladay (rh)
SP – S. Kazmir (lh)
SP – T. Lilly (lh)
SP – B. McCarthy (rh)
SP – J. Johnson (rh)

RP – H. Street (rh)
RP – J. Papelbon (rh)
RP – J. Zumaya (rh)
RP – B. Halsey (lh)
RP – S. Schoeneweis (lh)
RP – J. Speier (rh)
RP – S. Downs (lh)

This year, the Jays’ pitching was derailed when Burnett and Chacin injured themselves, if similar injuries struck this team, Reyes and Olsen are major league ready. When Hillenbrand jumped off the ‘ship,’ no big deal, because it’s past time to have Kendrick in the lineup. Miguel Tejada becomes available at the deadline, the Jays could have offered, Tulowitzki, Kemp, and Hughes, or maybe they offer Penn to Tampa for two months of Julio Lugo before promoting Tulowitzki in 2007. If Wells leaves after 2007 as a free agent, Rios shifts to center and Ethier plays right and hits third. Or… well, you get the point. It’s a drool inducing, over the top possibility. Nobody is fortunate enough to have Papelbon, Zumaya, and Johnson stepping up at the same time, but the point remains that having young, inexpensive talent sprinkled throughout the organization is the only way to counter George Steinbrenner’s millions.