Blue Jays: A Four Month Evaluation of Right and Wrong.

Do you believe in jinxing your team? I’m not entirely sure that I do, but I started this article on what has gone right and what has gone wrong for the Jays while watching them battle the A’s in Oakland. After a dramatic comeback to take the lead in the top of the 9th, who was walking in for the Jays, but BJ Ryan. Wouldn’t you know that I had just written Ryan’s name under the “Right” column? Did I jinx my team? Is it my fault they lost? Well, of course not (at least I’m pretty sure I can’t be blamed, can I?), but the loss means that the Jays finish the fourth month of the season with a very good 57-48 record, which means something has gone right. However, they’re also 6.5 back of the Red Sox, which means a lot of things have gone wrong. With two months left for the Jays to make a run at the division lead (and with the Yankees recent acquisition of Bobby Abreu, that just became a little bit harder), the time is right to look back at the previous two months and decide what has gone right and what has gone wrong for the Blue Jays this year.

Right: BJ Ryan – Until (I jinxed him) tonight, the high priced closer has been better than advertised. Three blown saves, none of which resulted in a loss. Now, the reality is that as good as Ryan is, there were going to be some bad outings. No reliever, not even Mariano Rivera, goes through an entire year without giving up some runs. You just hope that they come paired in outings when your team has a three run lead. He’s come in and pitched multiple innings when need prescribed, he’s struck out more than a batter per inning, he’s only allowed 9 runs all year (which breaks down to 6 in his first 45 appearances. Yes, July has been shaky, but he’s solidified the back end of the Jays’ rotation by being dominant.

Wrong: AJ Burnett – The high priced starter has been anything but dominant. Prior to signing his contract, Burnett was known as a phenomenal talent who’d never reached stardom because a) he’s frequently injured and b) he’s inconsistent. So, what has their supposed number two pitcher done for them this season. Missed 12 starts through two different injuries and when he has pitched, has given them three stellar outings (two of which, it should be noted, came against NL clubs), three good starts, and three terrible outings. Perhaps worthy of a number 4 starter, but far short of the dominance the Jays expected for 55 million.

Right: Outfield Defense – Frank Cattalanotto is the only regular outfielder whose defense can be described as average. Vernon Wells is a gold glove fielder, Reed Johnson covers more acreage out there than an crop duster and his arm makes runners think before trying to score from second. Before a freak injury, Alex Rios was being talked about as a potential gold glover, and after his injury Eric Hinske made some incredible catches in relief.

Wrong: Infield Defense – The flipping of Aaron Hill didn’t help, nor did the injury to John McDonald, but the Jays infield defense has been vastly sub par. Overbay is a stellar first baseman and Troy Glaus is surprisingly mobile at third (although his range isn’t confusing anyone with Eric Chavez), but up the middle the team has squandered far too many runs. Worst of all was when John Gibbons resorted to using Glaus at short, so he could keep Hillenbrand’s bat in the lineup. No, they didn’t make many errors, but they also didn’t get their hands on any balls. Of course much of the blame for the Jays’ fielding troubles can laid at the feet of Russ Adams, but we’ll come to that in a minute.

Right: Roy Halladay – The Doc has been great. Forget the 13-2 record, which has been helped by the generous run support he’s provided. Halladay has 13 quality starts and his worst outing (5 earned runs and the loss against Tampa Bay) came April 9th. It’s to the point where an outing in which he allows three runs and only goes 7 begins to feel poor. Until today’s loss (obviously my fault, not Halladay’s, nor --- I guess --- Ryan’s). Halladay was perfect this season breaking a Jays losing streak.

Wrong: Josh Towers and company – When J.P. looks back after the season and tries to assess why the Jays were 6.5 out on August 1st, perhaps he’ll place the blame on the infield defense, or the bullpen, or perhaps he’ll place the blame on the fifth spot in the rotation. That Josh Towers, with his 1-9 record and 9.11 (call emergency) ERA still has the fourth most innings pitched for the Jays this year is scary, downright scary. That he was replaced by Ty Taubenheim (1-5, 4.89) isn’t really making me feel much better. Even a league average pitcher would have been worth more than two wins from 21 starts, probably six more.

Right: The development of Aaron Hill – After a molasses like start (.195 in April), Hill has been slapping the ball around like he’s Tony Gwynn (.333 since, .361 in July). You’d still like to see more power from the intrepid young hitter, but the .415 OBP he posted in July made him a very valuable player. Defensively he’s far better suited to second base, where his range improves with every game and his strong arm allows him to turn the double play well. Not Orlando Hudson, but he’s improving, unlike…

Wrong: The development of Russ Adams – Oh Russ, what happened? Did they rush you to the Majors to soon? Were you just never really more than a utility player anyhow? Would the Jays have been better off taking the player drafted right after you (Scott Kazmir… d’oh!), yeah, they would have. Still, did we expect to see you start hitting like Niefi Perez (.276 OBP), while fielding like the Yankee- era Chuck Knoblauch (10 errors in 36 games at short)? No, we didn’t, but at the end of the season, you and Josh can fight over the largest chunk of blame for the Jays inspirational climb to… another third place finish.

Right: Eric Hinske – I’m not going to lie, Hinske has been in my dog house since his rookie season unnaturally heightened my expectations of his value. Yet this season, through the injuries to Alex Rios and Troy Glaus, I’ve come to value Hinske’s role on the Jays. Playing wherever the Jays have need of him, Hinske has not complained at being the positional odd man out. He’s come to the park every day, compiled his best offensive season, played terrific defense when needed, and not complained about sitting most nights.

Wrong: Shea Hillenbrand – I think I’ve written enough about him, but clearly he was something wrong this year.

Right: The bullpen – At times they have been stellar; coming in, striking people out to hold inherited runners, looking strong.

Wrong: The bullpen – At times they have been awful; coming in, taking more hits than the piñata in Glaus’ preseason commercial, looking weary.

Right: The Jays’ On Base Percentage and Home Runs – The Jays are second in baseball with a .360 OBP (.03 points behind Boston) and they are second in the American League with 144 HRs (18 behind the White Sox), so it should come as no surprise that they lead the Majors with a .842 OPS and that their offence has scored 565 runs. Of course as good as 565 runs are, they rank only 5th in the AL (6th overall).

Wrong: The Jays’ hitting with runners in scoring position – It isn’t so much their overall average with runners in scoring position, which is an acceptable .282 (5th in AL), but their league leading 105 double plays and their league worst 10 sacrifices. While the Jays hit capably with runners in scoring position, they don’t move runners over and thus ground into a lot of rally ending double plays.

Given the financial disparities of teams in the AL East, the Jays will not have a lot of seasons where they reasonably challenge for the title. Increased spending last offseason raised expectations, but the reality is that no matter how many things they’ve done right this year, there are just too many wrongs on their list. If they can correct a couple of these wrongs (the defense, moving runners over, and getting consistent outings from Burnett are reasonable goals), then they could make a push for 90 wins. It’ll still leave them short of October baseball, but should be enough for them to focus on what went right in 2006.