How the West was Won... and the East, Central, and Wild Card.

While the American League has nine or ten teams who could win 90 games, the National League has, well, considerably fewer. The competitive balance is equally as taught, but the overall talent level of the clubs pales in comparison. 93 wins will guarantee someone a playoff spot, 90 wins should be enough to secure the wild card, and the West, well, the West should be won by somebody, I think, those are the rules aren’t they? Can we amend those mid season if we need to? Please?

NL East – Mets GM Omar Minaya made aggressive moves to upgrade the Mets behind the plate (Paul Lo Duca), at first base (Carlos Delgado), and at closer (Billy Wagner), which combined with the ascension of third baseman David Wright and a healthy Carlos Beltran have the Mets thinking pennant for the first time since 1988. Yet, shaky pitching and a general malaise of underachievement have me doubting. Philly will pose a challenge as their young hitters (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) take control of the team, and the loss of Atlanta coaching legend Leo Mazzone might hurt the Braves, but for 14 straight years the division has belonged to the Braves, and Mazzone or no Mazzone, until they cough it up I’m inclined to keep picking them.

NL Central – The Cards certainly aren’t as strong as they were last year, their corner outfielders are below average, they let a good, experienced bat at second base (Mark Grudzielanek) walk and replaced him with Aaron Miles (.303 OBP last year), and seemingly their entire bullpen was let walk. Fortunately for them Houston wont pitch as well as last year (especially if a certain someone stays away) and still cannot hit, and the Cubs fate is still tied to the health of Prior and Wood, which means another long season for fans of the south siders. The division dark horse is Milwaukee, who will be better than most believe, but still have too many holes to best Pujols and company. St Louis takes their third straight division crown.

NL West – last year the West was an embarrassment, won by the 82-80 Padres. By simple law of averages, it cannot be that bad again… can it? While logic says it wont be, the West still looks like a division which can be won by 5 poor months and one great one, but are any of the division’s 5 teams good enough to go 22-6 as the Padres did last May? The Dodgers were decimated by injuries last year, but still thought it wise to sign Nomar Garciapara, the world’s only living, walking, breathing groin pull. The over under on games played by Bonds is 60, which is 60 to few for the Giants. The Padres have the NL’s best pitcher, but nobody to hit the ball out of cavernous Petco Park. The guess here is that the Arizona Diamondbacks develop faster than anyone predicts, play solid enough ball through the first four months and make a late season charge to steal the division. Dbacks in an upset.

NL Wild Card – Houston rode phenomenal starting pitching to last year’s Wild Card, but without the Rocket, they’ll struggle to repeat that this season. Still, the consistently slow starters should put together a solid summer run, which makes them competitive in the Wild Card battle. They’ll compete with the NL East losers (Philly and the Mets) and with the teams in their own division --- I’m betting against anyone in the West posing a serious challenge. If Ben Sheets can make 30 starts for the Brewers, then they will surprise a lot of people who missed their success from last year. The Brewers out play, out hustle, and (most importantly) out pitch the competition and win the wild card.

Awards:

MVP – Baring major injury, I’m just going to write down Albert Pujols’ name for this award every year for the next decade, and more often than not I’m going to be right --- he’s just that good.

Cy Young – Johnson and Schilling went to the AL, Prior and Schmidt cannot stay healthy, the Rocket seems to have landed, and Willis wont get any run support from the kiddies he’s playing for, which means that this award will be a battle between champion Chris Carpenter, 20 game winner Roy Oswalt, and young star Jake Peavy. The smart money is on Peavy, who already has an ERA title under his belt.

Rookie Of the Year – Ten years ago, Jeter, ARod, and Nomar burst onto the scene and made shortstop the new glamour position in Major League Baseball. This year, the Nationals’ Ryan Zimmerman will emerge as the next great player in a wave of superstar third basemen who are taking the glamour from short and hitting it on over to third.

Manager of the Year – This award always goes to the manager who takes his team from average to contender, which means that this year the award is taken by Milwaukee’s cagey old manager Ned Yost.

Finally: Atlanta recovers from their recent playoff ineptitude to beat the Brewers, who are just happy to be in the playoffs. St. Louis makes easy work of the Diamondbacks, before (gasp) out pitching the Braves for the NL crown. All of which brings us a fabulously intriguing World Series with the Cardinals winning the National Leagues first World Series game in two years, but Oakland taking the series in six…