Picking Pins in a Haystack, or Prognosticating the American League...

2006 will be the year of the American League. The National League has some good teams, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves are always competitive, the New York Mets have reloaded, and if that San Francisco starter plays 120 games then the Giants will be a different team, but the American League, well, the American league will be a season long slug fest. Going into the year 9 teams are legitimate contenders for the four playoff spots. I’m not much of a mathematician, but even I can tell that will mean a lot of disappointment in many different cities. So how to sort through the confusion, well it’s fairly simple --- everybody agrees upon it and the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox just proved it: pitching wins. If you have the best pitcher on the mound that night, your team will win more often than not. Thus, the teams which escape the American League battle royal will be the ones who bring the best arm to the mound more nights than not.

AL East – By that maxim, the American League East will be won by whatever team has the best pitching. Simple. And looking at the rosters, the best rotation in the AL East belongs to… the Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, they wont win the division, because while pitching wins, the reality is that a team will never go through the full season with their 5 starting pitchers each making 32 starts. Players get hurt, sometimes they blow out an elbow, sometimes they just break a leg with a come backer up the middle, either way teams with the most resources are best equipped to deal with such blows. The Sox and Yanks each have seven prospective starters and their powerful offences give them the leeway to recover should grey beards Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling prove ineffective. The Jays will certainly be better, maybe even 90 win better, but against 100 million dream teams, that’s hardly enough. The Yanks win the division for the 8,000th year in a row.

AL Central - After the Chicago White Sox’s World Series victory, some unnamed party pooper pompously claimed that if the Sox went into next season with their 2005 roster, they wouldn’t even win their division, let alone repeat. Well, I doubt that Sox GM Kenny Williams heeded any utterance of mine, but regardless he showed himself to be one of the games most astute GM’s, by plucking Jim Thome from Philadelphia and Javier Vazquez from Arizona. Meanwhile, the Indians took a side step (they’ll be better next year, but the Andy Marte – Coco Crisp deal wont help them enough in 2006), and the Twins are left wondering if any of their hitters will match the dominance of their young hurlers. The White Sox repeat, but in a tight three way contest.

AL West – You have one team with great pitching but weak hitting, you have one team with great hitting and weak pitching, you have one team with both, and then you have the Seattle Mariners. For all the blather over “Moneyball” tactics, we sometimes lose sight of the fact that Billy Beane is an exceptional GM. Last season he was forced to depart with two of his big three pitchers, but rather than that costing his team, it served as a springboard. The Athletics enter 2006 as the most complete team in baseball. They have depth at every position and in every aspect of the game. Their offence, so anemic since Miguel Tejada left, will be productive and their pitching will be in the AL’s top 3. The A’s win the division going away.

AL Wild Card – This is where things get interesting. The Sox, despite having the best 3-4 combo in baseball have too many question marks in their rotation and too many weak links in their lineup. The Rangers will rake, but their young power arms are still a year away. The Angels can throw, but despite baseball’s best farm system, they still have no one to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. The Tribe will go as far as Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore take them, but they need more production from their corner infielders and their corner outfielders. The Twins will surprise people who think that their run is over, but they don’t have the depth to catch… The Toronto Blue Jays. Maybe I’m an optimist, but JP Ricciardi’s moves pay off with the Jays first playoff appearance since Joe Carter beat Philly with one sweet swing…

AL Awards:

MVP – Being the big gun on the World Series champions gives Paul Konerko the credit he needs to beat out A-Rod, David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero.

Cy Young – Rich Harden is a popular choice and while I’d love to predict a victory for him, I have to give it to Johan Santana, who should have won last year.

Rookie of the Year – Jonathan Pappelbon will be closing for the Red Sox before Independence Day, and like Huston Street last year, his 25 saves will be enough to sway voters away from everyday player Ian Kinsler.

Manager of the Year – Despite how much money J.P. spent, if John Gibbons leads Toronto past the Red Sox, Angels, and Tribe into the playoffs, he will be the manager of the year.

Finally: In the American League playoffs, riding the hot streak which took them to the playoffs, Toronto is able to upset the World Series champion White Sox. Meanwhile, the Yanks and A’s go the distance before the A’s superior depth sends the Boss into a massive coronary. Just as it was in the early 90s, the Jays’ path to the World Series is blocked by an older, more experienced Oakland team, who wins the AL Pennant, going to the World Series to meet… (don’t you just hate to be continues).