T'is the Season... for Baseball Musical Chairs.

If you were paying attention to the winter baseball meetings in Dallas, you realize that the three day event, normally a source of myriad deals and flashy money, witnessed a frenetic tornado of low level trade activity. While the plethora of trades were notable for the players not moved (Manny Ramirez), they also created a sense of overriding excitement for Hot Stove fans. For three solid days, it seemed as though if you blinked you missed a trade that might have lacked star power, but involved talented players who will help their new teams. The sheer number of moves, the utter inanity of some trades and the lack of big names made for a complicated process of ascertaining the winners and losers. Yet one thing is certain, the Toronto Blue Jays, led by level headed GM J.P. Ricciardi, came out in the winners pool. Ricciardi, who has been lambasted by the Toronto press since his arrival, is nearing fruition in his quest to remake the Jays from an expensive underachieving third place team. While the 102 million he splashed out for AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan seems outlandish and the contract length intimidating, the more important point is that the Jays were coming from a disadvantaged position and J.P. identified the players he was interested in and aggressively pursued them. While the fifth year to each was questionable, the money was exactly in line with the market. Both pitchers might bomb, but not because they were bad deals, but because that is the nature of sport (did anyone assume that Giambi’s deal would seem an albatross three years in?). Both are young and have live arms, if they work out then that contentious fifth year will come at a bargain price. Getting Overbay from Milwaukee was a coup simply because of the number of other teams interested in acquiring the sweet swinging lefty. Ricciardi’s only miss, was on San Diego free agent Brian Giles (although he likely would have come at the expense of Burnett), who chose to remain with his hometown Padres. Despite that, securing a number two pitcher and closer for the rest of the decade can is admirable, as is adding a hitter of Overbay’s quality. The offseason is not yet a complete success, nor is J.P. finished. The Jays need another impact bat --- for all his strengths, Overbay doesn’t stroke many home runs --- and they have an abundance of infielders that they need to pare. Looking at their depth chart, only three players are assured of their spot:

C – G. Zaun, G. Quiroz
1B – "L. Overbay", E. Hinske
2B – O. Hudson, A Hill
SS – "R. Adams"
3B – "C. Koskie"
OF – V. Wells, A. Rios. R. Johnson, F. Catalanotto
DH – S. Hillenbrand

Zaun and Quiroz will split time as Quiroz develops, Wells is unlikely to be moved, but as the Jays largest bargaining chip, his name tends to reappear on the rumor page from time to time. The biggest logjam is on the right side of the infield where the Jays would love somebody to take Eric Hinske’s contract off their hands, and they want to get Hill’s bat in the lineup, perhaps even at the expense of Hudson’s defense. The most likely addition is ex-Cub Nomar Garciappara who in an attempt to jump start his career has let teams know he is willing to play any position. Although they also will look to add a power bat through trade, with Texas’s Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench the most prominent names mentioned. For the offseason to truly be a success, J.P. needs to secure solid pine for the middle of his order, but thus far his offseason stands above the fray in a hazy winter.


Other (Early) Hot Stove Winners:

The Boston Red Sox – Theo who? An offseason which began with the very public exit of golden boy GM Theo Epstein has come full circle, and in a very rewarding fashion. The Sox essentially gave up a big token prospect and a backup catcher and in exchange they took back a 25 year old Yankee killer (don’t be naive enough to think that Josh Beckett’s World Series MVP over the Sox rival wasn’t a H – U – G – E factor in their acquiring him.), a gold glove third baseman who should recover from an down offensive year by playing 81 games at Fenway, and a top second baseman who plays for 3.75 million. Atlanta’s loss of Rafael Furcal meant that the Braves were willing to take Edgar Renteria (although 11 million is a lot of money to pay someone to play elsewhere), and before they could fill that hole, Miguel Tejada announces he wants to be moved to Boston (see more below). Then, after all of that success, word comes out of Boston, that the club is close to rehiring Epstein as the pseudo GM (or, the man with the power and no title). Like the Jays, the Sox are not finished, they still have to deal with Manny being Manny (although a potential Tejada deal is the closest they’ve come to attaining equal value for the mercurial slugger), and there’s that “idiot” center fielder and his arduous agent, but given the surprisingly quiet winter from the Bronx, the Sox have to be happy right now.

The Florida Marlins – Given the absurd roster purge that has taken place in Florida this offseason, this choice might seem anathema to most, but the moves of the Marlins cannot be taken out of context. The reality is that the Fish grossly underachieved last season (they were my pre-season World Series picks and I wasn’t alone) and that their stadium situation has made their situation in Miami untenable. The Marlins have been trying to build a new stadium since their inception, but any support they might have had from public funding has --- rightfully --- deteriorated as resources are delegated towards repairing hurricane damage. While south Florida should be a hot spot for baseball (it remains a great source of talent), the Marlins attendance has always been shaky and their inability to build a new stadium means that they will probably move within the next three years. The baseball revenue just is not the same for them as for other teams, and they needed to reduce their payroll. By trading Delgado, Beckett, Mike Lowell, Guillermo Mota, Paul LoDuca, Luis Castillo and Jaun Pierre, they lost their ace, set up man, and 5 members of their lineup, but they also shed 40 million in salaries and stockpiled young arms, which in case you haven’t noticed are baseball’s most valuable commodity. From the Mets alone they took three of the top four prospects. It wasn’t pretty and this season will be even uglier, but given the cost of pitching, young pitchers can be used to acquire anything in baseball, look for the Marlins to take a shortcut back to the top, only not in Florida.

Chicago White Sox – After their World Series win, I was skeptical about whether the Sox would even finish second in their division next season, but I must credit GM Kenny Williams for parlaying overrated center fielder, Aaron Rowand into Jim Thome and a lot of cash. Thome’s still expensive and if he doesn’t play he’ll be a Frank Thomas sized drain on the payroll, but the move to DH should help his ageing body and the move showed that Williams wasn’t content to wait for the pack to catch up. Keeping Paul Konerko from the Red Sox and Angels also is a success.

Losers:

A bunch of teams which looked good in October, but suddenly aren’t so glossy; the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Houston Rockets, and the St Louis Cardinals all looked good exiting last season, the Angels and Cards easily won their divisions and the Stros went to their first World Series, but each looks vulnerable so far this offseason. Anaheim still has not found a bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. They continue to be linked to Manny, but seem more likely to try finding protection from within, which will only work if they stop pretending Steve Finely and Darrin Erstad contribute. Houston declined arbitration to Roger Clemens, which might make fiscal sense given that they owe 80 million to 11 other players, but last year the big three (Clemens, Andy Petite, and Roy Oswalt) carried that team, and without Clemens the holes created by having such roster imbalance will quickly become apparent. For their part, the Cards still have Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, with Scott Rolen’s return from injury acting as an addition of sorts, but they have lost both corner outfielders, their second baseman, 105 innings of middle relief, and stalwart starter Matt Morris (likely). Despite moving into a new stadium (normally an excuse to increase payroll), Cards GM Walt Jocketty is working on a tight budget. They still will be favorites to win their division, but they no longer seem the class of the National League.

Baltimore Orioles – They swung and missed on Burnett, they swung and missed on Konerko, they lost their closer (Ryan), and even when they succeed (by overpaying for catcher Ramon Hernandez), the news is overshadowed by their superstar, shortstop Miguel Tejada, publicly demanding a trade. The worst part is that Tejada has a point, while Ricciardi and the Jays were acting decisively, the Orioles have once again been confused and disjointed, and in a division with Boston and the Yankees that will not get you anywhere but the bottom (well, ok, maybe not the bottom, but only because of those lovable Devil Rays). As ESPN writer Rob Neyer continues to point out, the problems in Baltimore come from Peter Angelos and since it’s incredibly difficult to fire the owner bird fans are in for another tough season.

To Soon to Tell:

New York Yankees – I’ll believe that they start Bubba Crosby in center when the season starts and he runs out there. So far the Evil Empire has been eerily quiet, reversing the 2B error of last season (when they let Miguel Cairo go and replaced him with Tony Womack) and replacing departed set-up man Tom Gordon with Kyle Farnsworth, but when you won 95 games last year and haven’t suffered large personnel losses, staying the course might be prudent. Still, look for some name to be added before pitchers report.

New York Mets – If you looked solely at the names and their production from last year, you would proclaim the Mets certain National League champions. Adding Delgado, LoDuca, and winning the Billy Wagner sweepstakes would seem to position them perfectly to take down the Braves, but something about the moves the Mets made remind me of a pertinent piece of advice from the game of Polo: avoid the steaming divet… I’m not really sure what that means, but the Mets moves remind me vaguely of the winter of 2001, when they “loaded up” on Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeremy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio, and Roger Cedeno and proceeded to finish 26.5 back of the Braves. I think they’ll likely be the NL favorites going into the season, but I wont be surprised to see them miss the playoffs, let alone go to the World Series.