2007 American League East Preview:

What do you do with the American League East? In seven of the past nine years it has finished in the exact same order: Yanks, Sox, Jays, Orioles, Rays. The other two years were only disrupted by those lovable (at least by me), shit disturbing Jays. In 2004 they were particularly bad, losing 94 games to drop all the way to fifth, and in 2006 they won 87 games to jump past the Sox into second. Everybody else just slots into the same position. So, in a year where the Jays again look to be the third best team, but where the Sox might be better than the Yankees (at least on paper), where the Rays look to have their best team ever, and where the Orioles look as confusing as ever, what do you do? Do you try to look brash and switch things up, or do you go the safe route and slot them in where they seem to finish anyhow? And really, making predictions for any division is silly because you can never predict who’ll get hurt, or who’ll have nine guys overachieve (it happens), but it’s particularly pointless in the AL East, where the Yankees and Sox will almost certainly acquire some top flight talent half way through the year. Clemens ends up in the Bronx, no matter because the Sox manage to pry Miguel Cabrera from Florida (god, I hope not, but you take my point…). Oh heck, who wants to watch life from the safety of the ground, the views way better if you’re sitting on a tree limb: it says here that for the first time in a decade, the Yanks don’t win the division… of course they still make the playoffs anyhow.

Boston Red Sox (86-76 Last Year)
Projected Win Range: 92-96
Best Player: David Ortiz – I wouldn’t normally select a DH as a team’s best player, but the Sox have two hitters who are leaps and bounds better than the rest of the team one’s a DH (Big Papi) and the other actually costs them runs because he isn’t (Manny being Manny), so the mammoth lefty gets the nod.
Best Pitcher: Daisuke Matsusaka – Forget Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, by season’s end, the Sox’s number ‘three’ starter will have been their best.
Best Kid: Jacoby Ellsbury – He would be their best “fielding” outfielder right now, if his bat can catch up to his glove this summer, then Ellsbury could be patrolling center at Fenway by late August.
Impact Offseason Move: Dice-K, get onboard…
Questionable Offseason Move: I think they overspent on Julio Lugo, who was terrible for the Dodgers last year. However, if he returns to his numbers of two years ago (.362 OBP), then the Sox will score a lot of runs. Actually, they’ll score a lot of runs either way.
Bottom Line: After their ridiculous 2006 offseason, which was probably directly related to their disappointing third place finish last year, the Red Sox went back to their cool efficient ways. They needed to upgrade their outfield defense and their lineup, so they went out and signed right fielder J.D. Drew and his .904 career OPS. They also needed to upgrade their bullpen, so they added Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, and took a flier on Joel Pineira. And, while their rotation looked like a strength, they only made it stronger by spending a little bit of money on some dude from Japan. While Dice-K mania will only shine more light on the already maxed out Red Sox nation, it’ll also give them the best rotation in baseball. With wonder kid Jonathan Papelbon and holdovers Schilling, Beckett, and Tim Wakefield, the Sox go five deep, with four hard throwers and the crafty knuckleballer. Their only area of concern is the closer position, where they start the year with a closer by committee approach, but will hope that Pineiro, Mike Timlin, or a Papelbon-esque youngster can claim the position.

New York Yankees (97-65)
Projected Win Range: 91-95
Best Player: Derek Jeter – The AL MVP runner up probably wont be quite as good as last year, and depending on what measures you look at, he’s either overrated or underrated, but Jeter is the Yankees leader, their shortstop, and last year he was also their best hitter.
Best Pitcher: Roger Clemens – Just call it a hunch…
Best Kid: Phil Hughes – Baseball’s number one minor league pitching prospect, Hughes will have otherworldly expectations when he makes his Bronx debut, but he has all the stuff to be the Yankees best pitcher by next year.
Impact Offseason Move: The Yankees had an excess of outfielders and they used that to trade Gary Sheffield for three minor league pitching prospects, including flame thrower Humberto Sanchez.
Questionable Offseason Move: To be fair Randy Johnson asked to be traded back to Arizona, but for all the thoughts that Randy wasn’t productive for the Yankees, he led the team in wins, innings pitched, and K’s over the last two years. They’ll feel his loss in the rotation, unless of course removing him opens the door for his rival Clemens to return.
Bottom Line: This year in particular, pundits seem to be coming out of the woodwork, predicting the downfall of the Yankees, not because their lineup isn’t still awesome, but because their pitching staff looks shaky. Without Johnson, and with injury concerns for Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, there is some concern, but with Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Rodriguez, Giambi, Cano, Matsui, and Posada the Yankees will rake. Defensively, they are something of a house of cards, with collapse possible at any point and the pitching staff needs Wang and Pettitte to rejoin a rotation that right now consists of Mike Mussina, unproven Japanese import Kei Igawa, and Carl Pavano. Pavano was terrible in his first season with the Yanks and missed all of last year with a series of suspicious injuries that had his teammates questioning his work ethic, but now the Yanks will be relying on him to stabilize a rotation that could see an influx of youth sooner rather than later. But before proclaiming the downfall of the Yanks, remember two things: first, that the Yanks are endowed with a plethora of young power arms who could be helping the big club by the middle of summer and second, there’s some guy named Roger who could very well be solidifying that rotation by the end of June. So, with a lineup that could set the all time record for runs scored and pitching that might soon be better than it presently appears, it’d be folly to predict a October without the Yanks.

Toronto Blue Jays (87-75)
Projected Win Range: 85-89
Best Player: Vernon Wells – Getting Vernon signed, might have been the best move of J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay – If Doc can stay healthy then he’s one of only two or three pitchers in the AL who can challenge Johan Santana for the Cy.
Best Kid: Adam Lind – He should have started the season in a platoon with Reed Johnson, but the Jays are hopping Reed can continue his hitting from last year. Should he falter, then Lind will step in to the void.
Impact Offseason Move: Obviously eliminating the Wells’ leaving quandary was the most important move of the offseason, but upgrading the DH position with Frank Thomas is also a good move.
Questionable Offseason Move: Royce Clayton? Really? Him? Are you kidding me?
Bottom Line: The Jays raised their payroll for the second straight year, and expectations remain high as a result, but despite a payroll of around 81 million, the Jays still only have three obvious answers in the rotation, none of whom are sure bets to make 32 starts. To remedy that problem, GM J.P. Ricciardi looked to sign incumbent Ted Lilly and Seattle righty Gil Meche, but when those two inked deals worth a combined 95 million, with Chicago and Kansas City respectively, J.P. wisely looked for cheaper options. He signed Tomo Ohka, Victor Zambrano and John Thompson to a combined 2.5 million in guaranteed money. Those three, far from sure bets, will compete with Josh Towers and youngsters Casey Jansen, Dustin McGowan, and Shaun Marcum for those two vacant rotation spots. If the Jays can get 30 quality starts from any two of those seven, and 85 starts from their big three, then they could sneak into a wild card spot, but that’s a lot of “ifs” for a team in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Offensively the Jays are overloaded with right handers, but should still put runs on the board in bunches. Thomas significantly upgrades production from the DH spot, while Clayton should be no worse, although no better, than John McDonald was last year. The presence of Thomas should offset some of the natural depreciation that comes from Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, and Greg Zaun each of whom had something of a career year in 2006. The Jays need to get off to a hot start, taking advantage of the Yanks early season pitching concerns and the Sox’s tough April schedule. More likely though, the Jays hang around five or six back through most of the summer, before falling out of the race in August.

Baltimore Orioles (70-92)
Projected Win Range: 78-82
Best Player: Miguel Tejada – Even in what was a down year for the shortstop, Tejada still hit .330, with 37 doubles and 24 home runs.
Best Pitcher: Eric Bedard – The young left hander is just going into his prime, and in his second season under Leo Mazzone should develop into a lights out ace.
Best Kid: Adam Loewen – Whatever else I say about the Orioles, you have to love that if Loewen develops in his second season, then two of their three best pitchers are Canadian boys.
Impact Offseason Move: Oh I don’t know, I like the Jay Payton deal, but the 32 year old Payton isn’t exactly helping them catch the Yankees.
Questionable Offseason Move: Not finding a way to fire owner Peter Angelos will continue to hamper the franchise.
Bottom Line: The hardest team in all of baseball to prognosticate. I can say emphatically that they are not good enough to challenge the Yankees or the Sox, but if pitching coach Leo Mazzone can develop youngsters Daniel Cabrera, Loewen, and Hayden Penn, then the Orioles could be good enough to overtake the Jays, of course they also have enough weak points in their lineup that if the kids don’t come around, they could just as easily finish beneath the Devil Rays. Miguel Tejada remains one of the top three shortstops in baseball and while third baseman Melvin Mora is getting a little grey in the tooth, he probably has enough left in the tank to make a solid top of the order with underrated second baseman Brian Roberts. With developing right fielder Nick Markakis in the number three spot, Tejada should have a lot of opportunity to do what he does best, bring runners home. After those four though, the order is filled with guys ranging from overrated (Aubrey Huff), to passable (John Gibbons), to deadwood (Kevin Millar). The Orioles spent a lot of money in the offseason to improve their bullpen, although with Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker earning a combined ten million this year, it’s not entirely clear that they spent wisely. The Birds will have a 92 million dollar payroll this year, but the money has been so poorly allocated over the past few years, and owner Peter Angelos has vetoed so many sound baseball deals for his own absurd reasons, that the team has the worst bench in baseball. So if Mazzone doesn’t work his Brave magic with the kids, not to mention veterans Steve Trachsel and Jaret Wright (who won 15 games under Mazzone in 2004), then matching last year’s 70 wins would hardly be surprising.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101)
Projected Win Range: 70-74
Best Player: Carl Crawford – He remains the Rays bright spot, but maybe trading him for pitching would be the best thing for the franchise’s future.
Best Pitcher: Scott Kazmir – I hate Russ Adams…
Best Kid: Delmon Young – Young has been such a rising star, plagued by “incidents,” that it’s hard to remember that the rookie is only 21 years old. If he wants to achieve his potential, Young will have to take more pitches, but there’s no doubt that the kid will hit for average and power in the bigs.
Impact Offseason Move: I like bringing Elijah Dukes up to the big club. He might not be mature enough as a player, but his immaturity as a person will be easier for Tampa brass to manage with him under their direct supervision.
Questionable Offseason Move: Stop the insanity! B.J. Upton should have been moved to centerfield in November (if not three years ago), this super utility idea is just straight stupid.
Bottom Line: Watch out for the Devil Rays. They’re coming on, maybe not this year and maybe not the next, but this team will win more than they lose sooner than you think. They still make confounding decisions with their roster, and they still have a Grand Canyon style void of pitching on the big league roster, but they have two studs in the outfield (Crawford and Rocco Baldelli), their young hitters are reaching the bigs (Young, Upton, Dukes, with Evan Langoria and Reid Brignac less than a year away), and while Scott Kazmir remains their only top quality starter, reinforcements are coming. Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, and Wade Davis all project as front line starters and will begin the year in AAA. Two steps behind them are Matt Walker and Jeremy Hellickson who could be helping the big club in late 2008. The Rays still need some veteran pitchers to surround the kids, and they need to sort out an cramped outfield (Crawford, Baldelli, Young are projected as starters, but Dukes is ready to play, and one day they’ll realize that Upton’s actually a centerfielder), but those two problems shouldn’t be mutually exclusive. What the Rays have is the most athletic team in the majors. Whatever combination they decide to use in the outfield, it projects to have three guys capable of playing center, all with rocket arms (watch Young throw from right field, it’s a laser). The infield defense will be better if they find a replacement for the lead handed Jorge Cantu at second, because Langoria and Brignac both will be plus fielders, but a move to first might benefit a guy who hit 28 home runs two years ago. This season is something of a transition for the snake bite franchise, but I think that at worst this young, explosive team surpasses their franchise record for wins, as they begin a serious two year march to .500 and beyond.