Some Sort of NBA Draft Preview (missing a opening paragraph)

Portland Trailblazers
Offseason needs: Center, small forward, and starting point guard.
What they could do: The Blazers hold all the cards, if they decide that they prefer Durant, they can swap down with the Sonics, get their man and shed Darius Miles’ contract for their troubles. Or they could just pick whichever man they prefer. A franchise center, or a singular talent on the wing.
What they should do: Draft Oden.
What they will do: Draft Oden.

Seattle Supersonics
Offseason needs: A new arena, and a talent upgrade at every position on the floor.
What they could do: Well, assuming that Portland’s taking Oden, then I’d look to sign and trade Rashard Lewis and even look to see what Ray Allen’s trade value is. If Portland throws a curve ball, then draft Oden, re-sign Lewis, keep Allen and win your division next year.
What they should do: Select whomever Portland doesn’t, which means…
What they will do: draft Durant.

Atlanta Hawks
Offseason needs: Competent management, a starting point guard, and post play.
What they could do: Offer the number three pick, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Salim Stoudemire, and Tyronne Lue to Phoenix for Shawn Marion. This deal might not be enough to get Marion, but given the money it would save Phoenix, and the depth it would add, new Suns GM Steve Kerr would have to consider that deal.
What they should do: If Phoenix went for that deal, then Kerr should use that pick for (), but assuming Atlanta keeps the pick, then Billy Knight should take Al Horford, who would instantly stabilize the Hawks frontcourt.
What the will do: Oh, knowing Knight, it seems certain that the Hawks will take indifferent North Carolina forward, Brandon Wright.

Memphis Grizzlies
Offseason needs: Starting point guard, center, general depth.
What they could do: Trade Pau Gasol to Chicago for Ben Gordon, Chris Duhon, Tyrus Thomas, and the ninth pick in the draft. With the fourth pick Memphis could take Joakim Noah, and then swing the ninth pick to Toronto for Jose Calderon. Their lineup then looks something like this:
PG – J. Calderon, C. Duhon, D. Stoudemire
SG – B. Gordon, M. Miller
SF – R. Gay, H. Warrick, B. Cardinal
PF – T. Thomas, L. Roberts
C – J. Noah, S. Swift
With Marc Ivaroni leading them from the Memphis bench, this team could be right back in playoff contention next year.
What they should do: Well, obviously I think that they should go with the above move, but either way, they should draft Noah, who will pair well with Gasol.
What they will do: With all the smoke blowing about Noah, it seems as though West is blowing a diversion and will go with Mike Conley Jr.
Boston Celtics
Offseason needs: A direction for the franchise.
What they could do: They could continue to muddle through indecision by selecting Yi Jianlian, who might develop into the third best player in this draft. Of course, by then Paul Pierce might need his walker to get into the paint.
What they should do: Trade Pierce and commit to youth. Get a mix of talented youngsters, draft picks, and cap room. Then use their pick on Corey Brewer.
What they will do: Probably they take Brewer, keep Pierce and hope that they can get healthy, and win a weak Atlantic division next year.

Milwaukee Bucks
Offseason needs: A small forward, possibly a point guard, and better health.
What they could do: Having full seasons of health from Andrew Bogut, Charlie Villanueva, and Bobby Simmons would drastically help the Bucks’ cause, but they could help themselves by sending next year’s first round pick to Atlanta for the chance to move up to third and select Al Horford.
What they should do: That, but if not, then take Jeff Green, who can step in and help next year.
What they will do: Take Yi Jianlian, who will refuse to come to a city populated by six Chinese people.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Offseason needs: Trading KG, roster upgrades everywhere else.
What they could do: The Wolves should have sent KG to the Bulls when they had Gordon, Thomas, Nocioni, and cap space on the board. Now, unless the get Phoenix to bite on a Stoudemire deal, whatever they get for Garnett will be 45 cents on the dollar, but that total is rapidly dropping. So, for the love of God, find a deal for the talented big man.
What they should do: Trade Garnett and Marko Jaric to Phoenix for Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Banks, and Atlanta’s unprotected number one next year that Phoenix holds. Phoenix wont want to give up Barbosa, but jumps at the chance to include Marion over Stoudemire in a KG deal. If Minnesota uses their pick on Mike Conley, then they have a lightning fast, very versatile backcourt of Conley, Randy Foye, Barbosa. Paired with Marion, the Wolves would be athletic and exciting.
What they will do: Draft Spencer Hawes.

Charlotte Bobcats
Offseason needs: upgrades at point, small forward and depth up front. A sense of direction and leadership from ownership would also help.
What they could do: They could actually decide that they want to be part of the National Basketball Association and then spend some money to upgrade their anemic roster.
What they should do: The Bobcats sit in a position where they can just sit back, wait, and pick up whoever slips from the Noah, Green, Conely, Wright, Yi group. Especially if Minnesota loses their mind and reaches for Hawes, then the Bobcats could be choosing between two, but otherwise, at eight, if he’s still on the board, Wright’s an obvious choice.
What they will do: If Yi’s still on the board, I’d be very surprised if the Bobcats didn’t trade this pick to someone.

Chicago Bulls
Offseason needs: Low post scoring.
What they could do: Well, obviously they’ve been trying to get Garnett for years, and they’re at the top of Kobe’s wish list, but I still think that the perfect player to pair upfront with Luol Deng and Ben Wallace is Zach Randolph. Portland wants a second pick in the draft, they also need a small forward and perhaps some veteran leadership, so some sort of sign and trade with Nocioni and/or PJ Brown would seem to fulfill needs for both teams.
What they should do: If Yi’s still on the board, John Paxson will be doing back flips.
What they will do: Look to deal, but ultimately grab whoever’s left from the top nine.

Sacramento Kings
Offseason needs: A complete and total overhaul.
What they could do: There are all kinds of rumors circulating about a deal in which the Kings send Bibby and Artest to the Heat for some expiring contracts, Dorell Wright, and the 20th pick. Frankly that makes me throw up a little in my mouth, but obviously the Kings need to find a new home for both players.
What they should do: Begin the post-Bibby/Artest era by drafting Thadeus Young, who is his name, but also has the greatest upside of anyone left at this point.
What they will do: Draft Al Thornton who has less upside, but is ready to contribute now, which is great if you have a team worth competing on…

Atlanta Hawks
Offseason needs: see above.
What they could do: Well, apparently they were looking into dealing this pick to Seattle for Luke Ridnour, but if Sam Presti had that trade on the table, I’m sure he’d have taken it, so I’d make a similar offer to Toronto for either of their point guards.
What they should do: If they keep this pick they have to go point guard, and Acie Law has the moxie to lead this team. Yes he’s a shoot first guard, but with the unselfish Joe Johnson in the backcourt, it can work the same way it worked for Detroit with Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton.
What they will do: Oh, who knows, since before the took Wright, how about now lets have them taking the equally indifferent Julian Wright. With those two upfront with Marvin Williams, this is a team that could beat anyone, on that one given night per year when all three decided to play hard.

Philadelphia 76ers
Offseason needs: Help at both of the forward spots.
What they could do: After their surprisingly strong finish, the Sixers seem in a better place than anyone could have predicted for the post-Iverson era (short of getting Oden or Durant of course). They probably can make a playoff run right now, so it might behoove them to just take the player most likely to help them in 2008.
What they should do: Al Thornton definitely qualifies as that, given that he can play some four, and will solidify their rotation at the three.

New Orleans Hornets
Offseason needs: Shooting, athleticism on the wing, low post scoring.
What they could do: Build a time machine, go back to last summer, and NOT give peja Stojakovic all that money.
What they should do: Well, I’ve purposely let Kansas’ Julain Wright fall, because despite having, perhaps the third most talent in this draft, he strikes me as the enxt Tim Thomas. Worlds of talent, no drive, and thus a painful player to live with. But as Thomas showed during his brief stint in Phoenix, having a great point guard can help the talented motor less player. The Hornets have the great player, so Wright’s worth the risk.

Los Angeles Clippers
Offseason needs: A pulse. Reducing ticket prices to get Bill Simmons back in their seats. Maybe a better coach, GM, owner. Wow that’s a lot of needs to fix in one offseason.
What they could do: Trade this pick to Toronto for Jose Calderon. Seriously, he’s that good. Then explore trading for Paul Pierce, who would find a home playing alongside Elton Brand.
What they should do: Draft the best player left on the board, in this case that would be USC alum Nick Young, who instantly offers an upgrade over Cuttino Mobley.
What they will do: Oh who knows, perhaps they take Hawes, because they don’t yet have enough lumbering seven feet white guys, or perhaps they take Wright so that he can call Thomas sensei, and properly learn the nuances of not caring for 73 of the 82 games, or perhaps they draft some Russian kid twenty spots higher than anyone else had him pegged, then watch him rot on their bench for two years before declining his option… what they did that two years ago? Oh well, it’s the Clippers, between Elgin Baylor and Donald Sterling, who the hell knows what they’re going to do.

That’s what makes this year’s draft so much fun. You have a loaded draft, and more talent available on the table than ever before, but the guys driving the bus are Billy Knight, Chris Wallace, Danny Ainge, Kevin McHale, Michael Jordan, and Elgin Baylor. Obviously the worst collection of general managers ever assembled. Seriously, anything could happen, or they could all get clammy hands, grab a bottle, hide under the table and rock back and forth, while hauntingly calling for their Mommies until the darft’s finished and their franchises are exactly the same. The NBA… it’s FAN-tastic!

Billy Knight and his flightless Hawks...

Since taking over the Hawks in April 2003, Billy Knight has taken his team from a 35 win team to a 30 win team. While that represents an impressive negative five increase in the win column, we would be remise if we didn’t point out that the 30 wins represent a high water mark in King’s spectacular run as Hawks GM. While the Hawks do, seemingly, have talent on their roster, King has made pundits scoff as he acquired athletic wing after athletic wing, while finding nobody qualified to run the show. As Deron Williams tears up the Spurs, Hawks fans (all four of them), can’t help but dream of Williams penetrating and dishing to an open Joe Johnson. Instead they have Marvin Williams taking baby steps towards respectability. Personally, despite the great strides taken by Deron Williams this year, I’d still have selected Chris Paul, but lets be honest, either would have put Atlanta in the playoffs this year.

That was a bad, bad decision, but it probably wasn’t even among Knight's five worst choices since taking over as GM. Lets take a look at five of his most questionable moves.

5) Traded Rasheed Wallace to Detroit in a three team deal that sent Chucky Atkins, Lindsay Hunter, and Detroit’s first round pick to the Celtics, for Bob Sura, Chris Mills, Zeljko Rebraca, Bucks 2004 first round pick.

Along with Wallace, Detroit also received Mike James, essentially trading five irrelevant bench pieces for one very important bench piece, and Wallace. There’s very little question that without Wallace, Detroit doesn’t win Larry Brown’s only NBA title, nor are they in the conference finals for the fifth straight year. For Atlanta’s part, they finished the complicated job of clearing the roster of bloated contracts (a cleaning which began with the trade of Shareef Abdur Rahim and Theo Ratliff for Wallace), and they got a draft choice which they turned into Josh Smith, but all that cap space hasn’t really gotten them anywhere (see below), and while Smith could be awesome, he has yet to make this trade anything more than a downright landslide, first round victory for the Pistons.

4) Traded Jason Terry and Alan Henderson to the Mavericks for Antoine Walker and Tony Delk. Followed seven months later by Knight moving Walker to the Celtics for Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta, Michael Stewart, 2006 Lakers’ pick which the Celtics owned.

Look, Terry isn’t the greatest player in the world, and he was something of a misfit on the Hawks, but he was their best player and they essentially traded him for more cap space and what eventually turned out to be the 21st pick in last years draft. Cap space does have value, but too much of it, in a weak year can lead to paying good players like great ones, and marginal ones like good ones. Knight has done both. The draft pick didn’t even really help, as Knight used it to help him overpay said player.

3) Signed Speedy Claxton to a four year, 25 million contract.

Speedy’s, well, Speedy’s not so speedy any more. Age and leg injuries have taken something from his legs, and since he was a borderline starting point guard to begin with, he’s much better suited to the bench. Unfortunately, Knight’s paying him to start, for three more years.

2) Drafted Sheldon Williams with the fifth pick in the draft, three spots before Rudy Gay, two before Randy Foye, and one spot before 2007 NBA ROY Brandon Roy. Williams was a massive stretch at five, he played exactly as pundits thought he would, giving the Hawks a solid workmanlike rotation big man. That’s great if the very next player hadn’t been Roy. Again, Knight showed a complete lack of understanding of relative value and it cost his team. They should have just drafted Roy, but at worst they should have moved down to ninth before drafting a player nobody had near the top five.

1) Traded Boris Diaw, that Lakers pick, and their own number one (top three protected this year, unprotected next year) in a sign and trade for Joe Johnson.

This was a harebrained idea to begin with. For starters, Knight wanted Johnson to come be the Hawks point guard, which despite his gifted passing is something he was never going to be successful at, since he isn’t good at penetrating. Second, they surrendered a considerable amount of assets considering, 1) Johnson had already made it clear he didn’t want to return (and be the fourth wheel) to Phoenix, and 2) Phoenix wasn’t going to add a fourth ten plus million salary to their already top heavy roster. So, they overpaid to overpay Johnson. Which isn’t to say that Johnson isn’t a great player, because he is, but just because he rolled with Carmelo, LeBron and Dwayne Wade in Japan last summer doesn’t mean he actually rolls in their basketball class. He’s a very good shooter, who defends well, but isn’t great at creating his own shot or getting to the line. A salary of around 10 million would have been more in line with what he provides, 12 would have made sense given that the Hawks were terrible and terrible teams often have to overpay for talent. Instead Johnson is making an average of 14 million per, which means he’s the big enchilada, and the man on who’s shoulders the team’s poor results should rest. This deal sent the Hawks ownership group into an ugly power struggle that continues to handicap the franchise, making you wonder if Joe Johnson was worth all of that.

Why does any of this matter? Because the East is so pathetic that with a competent offseason, not even a good one, but a competent one, the Hawks could put themselves in position to challenge for a playoff spot in the East. That in turn will lessen the effects of the Johnson trade (it doesn’t make it any better of a trade, it just would make the Hawks lucky it wasn’t worse), by keeping next year’s pick from being a lottery choice. It wont take a lot really, just some astute choices in this year’s draft, but then would you want Billy Knight making those decisions?

The "Real" NBA Season Begins

With the NBA season finally, mercifully, finished, it’s time to swing our… “What’s that Sweetie? It’s not over? There’s still another game tonight?” Oh, well, whatever… With the NBA finals mired in something close to irrelevance, it seems appropriate to take a quick look at what could be the most exciting, action packed offseason since, well, ever. Just look at the names that might be available: Jermaine O’Neal, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Lamar Odom, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko, and oh yeah, this guy out of LA you might have heard of… Kobe Bryant. And that doesn’t even get us started on the inevitable Kevin Garnett rumors. On top of the bevy of all star talent available, there’s also that small thing about what may be the greatest draft ever, and a free agent class that lacks the headline star power of the trade market, but still includes Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis, and potentially, Vince Carter.

So, after a shockingly slow trade deadline, and an obnoxiously boring playoffs (record low ratings for the finals is a bad sign, no matter what David Stern might say to Bill Simmons), it might just be time to get excited about basketball again. With a few good moves teams like Portland, Milwaukee, and even Atlanta can jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and others, namely Chicago, Houston, and Utah could put themselves into championship contention. With that in mind, lets look at how the offseason shapes up by answering five questions about each conference.

The five biggest issues facing the Eastern conference this offseason.

1) Has LeBron now taken over the Eastern Conference for the next decade?

Well, in a word… No. No doubt LeBron took a giant step forward in the Detroit series and he could dominate the Eastern conference for the next decade, but as was shown in the San Antonio series, LeBron’s cast aren’t Pippen, Rodman, or Steve Kerr, and LeBron isn’t Jordan. The conference is still open. Dwayne Wade’s supporting cast has one foot in the grave, but when healthy he probably plays LeBron to a draw, and while Detroit is on the way down, with a good offseason Chicago could take another step forward and block LeBron’s path back to the finals.

2) Will the East recover from May 22?

After almost a decade of suffering from a seriously lopsided league, two talents came along, who --- along with James and Wade --- could have immediately reduced the talent gap. If Oden had landed in Boston and Durant in Milwaukee, both of those teams would have been title contenders in two years. Instead, the top two picks landed in the West, the northwest to be specific, and the East got another kick to the nards. What does this mean for the East? That they’d better hope that Garnett and Kobe are traded their way (which if they are traded, it’ll probably be East), that Chicago should be aggressively pursuing Zach Randolph (assuming Garnett isn’t available), and that David Stern should force Billy Knight, Isaiah Thomas, Billy King, and Danny Ainge to be relocated to Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas, and Portland respectively. That more than the presence of Durant and Oden should have the desired effect of making the East better, while drastically reducing the quality of play in the West (I actually really look forward to the prospect of Isaiah trading Tim Duncan to the Knicks for Stephon Marbury and a few draft picks).

3) What will Atlanta do with the third pick?

With Portland and Seattle’s choices locked in stone (and no, Durant’s workout didn’t affect anything other than the vocal chords of a few loud mouthed idiots), Atlanta really holds the keys to this draft. What they desperately need is a competent presence in the middle, and somebody to run the show. They could take Mike Conley higher than most peg him, they could draft another athletic swingman, or they could trade down to one of the teams that want Al Horford, gain an asset, and then take Conley. But, given the logic, Knight will draft Brandon Wright, who’ll be another enigmatic talent, hanging out on the wing, with Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress.

4) Is there any doubt the Celtics are now cursed?

Whether it’s because of Len Bias, or whether Red reneged on some Faustian deal that has led to their demise, can there be any doubt that the Celtics are cursed? Or is it just terrible management? Whatever the case, after seeing their Oden-Durant dreams descend into the murky waters of Yi-land, and watching Tim Duncan ascend to one of the all-time greats, the Celtic faithful must be starting to wonder about possible curses (after all, these are the same fans who spent 86 years fearing the curse of the Bambino). More than anything, Boston needs direction, but confoundingly, they seem content to be committed to their youth, while also believing they can compete right now. Danny, trade Pierce for more assets, or trade some of the kids. You might be cursed, but that’s no reason to be dumb.

5) A ridiculously early playoff prediction for the East?

So, who has the best offseason? As I said above, even the Hawks could make the playoffs if they made some smart moves this offseason, but… what are the odds of that happening? With Billy Knight in charge? Not bloody likely, but the point remains that the East is so terrible, that someone who was terrible last year, could jump into the playoffs by making a smart move or two. That’s all it would take, but that seems unlikely to come from Atlanta, Boston, the Knicks, Charlotte, or Indiana. Philly seems on the cusp, and Milwaukee certainly has enough talent where some health and better coaching could land them in the playoffs. The givens are Detroit (on the way down, but with a lot of room left), Chicago, Cleveland, and Toronto. I think that if Gilbert Arenas remains healthy Washington remains in, same for Wade and Miami. Which leaves Orlando and New Jersey, ahhh… Dwight Howard takes another step and pushes out the grey beards in the swamp.

Five Questions for the Western Conference.

1) Will Kobe be traded?

This is the single biggest issue of the offseason. Does Kobe get moved anywhere? Two weeks ago I would have thought that the Lakers make some moves, and Kobe backs off his demands, but… Based upon his recent conversation with Jerry Buss, it would appear that Kobe’s sticking to his guns and wants to be traded, if that’s the case then the offseason is guaranteed to be massive. Where would Kobe go? Well, first of all, the Lakers aren’t sending him to any Western conference teams, so the Suns, Mavs, and Clippers (especially the Clippers) can forget about him. Second, with his no trade clause, he’s not going to a small market, so Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Toronto can just assume he’s not on the market, and the Lakers aren’t getting LeBron or Dwayne Wade straight up, so he’s not landing in Cleveland or Miami. Realistically, that leaves Chicago (supposedly Kobe’s first choice), Philly, Boston, and the Knicks. Of those, only Chicago really has the assets to make an attractive offer, but as we’ve seen in recent years, as the trade demand drags on, teams settle for packages that at first would have been laughed off (if in doubt, then see: O’Neal, Shaquille; McGrady, Tracy; Iverson, Allan, and worst of all Carter, Vince). Additionally, one cannot forget that Lakers’ GM Mitch Kupchak will be the one masterminding any trade, and, well, he doesn’t exactly have the best record on this subject (again, see: O’Neal, Shaquille).

2) What about Garnett?

The T-wolves have staunchly refused to address trading Garnett in the past, which clearly was the wrong decision. Now, as they flounder in mediocrity, their division just became exceedingly tougher with the addition of Oden and Durant, their roster continues to be bogged down by mid level contracts for minimum players, and their management has shown nothing in a decade to give Minnesota fans hope. So no, Minnesota isn’t trading Garnett. At least not this offseason, but… If owner Glenn Taylor decides to shove Kevin McHale in a closet for two weeks, and take over the negotiations, he might realize that a deal with the Celtics that sends Garnett East for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastion Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and the fifth pick. That’s a lot of future cap space, a dominating low post presence, a streaky, but very young wing player, and the fifth pick to add to the seventh in a loaded draft. If they came away from the draft with Florida stars Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah, then they’d have a young core that set up like this: Randy Foye, Green, Brewer, Jefferson, and Noah. (Just for the record, I agree with Bill Simmons’ take, that this trade is the wrong move for the Celtics).

3) Can the Spurs secure their dynastical place in history by winning back to back championships?

In my opinion, if the Spurs win their fifth title in ten years, not to mention their second straight, next year then all of this hoopla about whether they’re a dynasty can be put to bed, with the answer a resounding yes. So can they? Of course they can. After their first title, Tim Duncan was injured during the following playoffs, and they ran into the Shaq-Kobe-Phil juggernaut, so it wasn’t happening that year, but after their 2003 title, they were outplaying the Lakers until Derek Fischer’s miracle game four winner, and in 2005 they were a dumb ass Ginobili foul away from defeating the Mavericks in game seven. Either of those plays go the other way and the Spurs probably win titles in those years (and yes, I’m betting that the Spurs don’t melt down in last year’s finals like the Mavs did against Wade and the Heat). So, it’s not as though there’s some fundamental flaw in them that makes it so they can’t repeat, but as each of the Spurs first three titles showed us, winning back to back championships isn’t just a walk in the park, so if I had to choose between the Spurs and the field, I’d take the field.

4) What about the Suns?

After recently handing over their GM responsibilities to Steve Kerr, the Suns enter a pivotal offseason. Owner Robert Sarver doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax, but with Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, and Steve Nash all making south of 10 million, there’s not a lot of room for the extensions to Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa. So, does someone convince Sarver that this team was one Big “Cheap Shot” Bob knock away from winning a title this year, and thus should be given one more run, or do they move Marion to save some money?

5) Who makes the playoffs out West?

Well, if this was tough in the East, it’s nearly impossible to predict the West, but for opposite reasons. Lets just go with the obvious off the top: San Antonio, Phoenix, and Dallas aren’t going to miss out (a massive injury aside), I think that Houston, Utah, and Denver each come in on the next tier. The final two spots are going to be fought out between the Lakers, Clippers, Golden State, New Orleans, and Portland. I think that even with a rookie Oden in Portland, the Blazers make the dance, and the Clippers have the least issues to address this offseason so I’ll nominally put them eighth right now (although, no doubt Elgin Baylor could blow that).

No Champagne Supernova for the Suns this Year...

In the end, the Suns didn’t lose because of suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw, and they didn’t because of a cut that couldn’t be salved, but because for nine minutes bridging the end of the third and start of the fourth quarter, the Phoenix Suns, couldn’t make a shot. Yes, they were pooched by some ridiculous calls, but as Leandro Barbosa stood all alone on the three point line and clanged his shot of the back rim, it became apparent that the Suns were going to lose, not because of all the crap piled against them, but because they couldn’t do the single thing they are known for: the couldn’t make a basket. As Manu Ginobili and Michael Finely rained threes and Tony Parker dropped deep twos, the Suns looked discombobulated, confirming Mike D’Antoni’s contention that San Antonio plays together better, although perhaps not his contention that his Suns have more talent. And while I believed that Nash would stand up and drive them to victory, his efforts came too little to late. Down twenty with nine minutes left against the Spurs is not the time to attempt a comeback, but that was how bad things went for the Suns, so quickly, from up one with 6:47 remaining in the third, to down 20. In that time, Nash had two assist, one turnover, and no shots. He also sat out four and a half minutes, and I know that Nash runs at a frantic pace on old legs, but for four and a half minutes, while he was on the bench, the Suns’ season slipped away.

So where does Phoenix go from here? Did this loss prove that their system cannot beat the Spurs? Or did it merely show that this year, with luck, bloody noses, and the commissioners office against them, they couldn’t beat the Spurs. How do they go forward? With their payroll jumping headfirst into luxury tax zone, owner Robert Sarver has said he wants to remain beneath the tax threshold, which means that somebody has to be moved. Complicating that is that the Suns’ need to deepen their bench at the same time. They need to find a competent backup to give Nash some breathers (Barbosa’s obviously great, but he’s more of a two) and another live body or two for the rotation. Obviously Nash isn’t being moved, which means that either Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion will have to be moved if the Suns are going to escape the tax. Now perhaps Sarver, believing that they were jobbed this year, will give them one more year and pay the price, but if he doesn’t…

Rumor One:

The big rumor working the mill is that the Suns will try to package Marion and the pick that they get from the Hawks together, in an attempt to move up for Kevin Durant. Now, not only will this require the Suns getting the Hawks pick, a possibility, but nothing near a guarantee, but it would also involve someone actually wanting to give up the rights to Durant, which is possible but not probable. Even for Marion and the fourth pick, Durant is seen as such a unique and phenomenal talent that it’s unlikely a team would sacrifice his potential brilliance. The possibility of having the next “Jordan” is too great to pass up for most teams.

Rumor Two:

This one comes direct from Bill Simmons and plausibility wise, it’s actually pretty good. The Suns put Amare Stoudemire together with Marcus Banks and Eric Piatkowski (for money reasons) in a deal for Kevin Garnett. Maybe they also swap draft picks, or give Minnesota their pick from Cleveland, but while Garnett costs them slightly offensively, he certainly helps them with defense, rebounding, and neutralizing Tim Duncan. It makes sense for Minnesota, as Stoudemire is six years younger than Garnett and as close as they are ever going to come in terms of a straight up swap of talent. Will it happen? Well, probably not, because as Bill would likely note, it just makes too much sense for NBA GMs to consider…

Other options:

Denver might be looking to get out from beneath the contract of Marcus Camby, which would open the door a crack towards a deal with Phoenix. This wouldn’t help them financially, but they could move Thomas’ final year with a package of picks. It probably isn’t enough for Camby, but it’d be worth a shot to acquire a fleet shot blocking center who could start the break and still get down court in time to finish it at the rim.

Alternatively, the Suns could get crazy and make a play for Ron Artest, whom Sacramento will spend all summer trying to move. Although this would be lunacy, it also might be one of those gambles that pay off.

The Dream Scenario:

In a perfect storm type summer, the Suns could actually pull off both of the rumored moves, as they generally involve separate pieces. If say, Boston got the second pick, they could convince Danny Ainge that he’d be better off complementing Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson with Marion and Corey Brewer (drafted fourth), than just Durant, while simultaneously making the pitch for Garnett. Sure, it’s incredibly unlikely, but from a fantasy standpoint, the thought of the Suns breaking things up and re-tooling with both Durant and Garnett is pretty awesome. Pushed by Nash, the Suns’ new front court would be lethal, long on defense, capable of rebounding over anyone (remember that Durant averaged over 11 rebounds in college and rebounding numbers usually translate quite accurately from college to the pros), and of scoring from multiple spots on the floor. Of course this requires the NBA gods favoring the Suns tomorrow when the balls come out of the lottery, and it involves Ainge and Minnesota GM Kevin McHale being dumb enough to make the deals. Hhmmm… so maybe it isn’t such an impossibility after all.

Big Shot Rob Strikes Again, and the Suns Pay...

Once again the NBA followed the letter of the law and completely missed the point. Every major brawl in NBA history is the result of an uncalled for, over the top foul that ignites tempers on both sides. Yet, the NBA consistently punishes the wrong team for such fouls. Detroit’s Ben Wallace pounds Ron Artest to the ground, igniting the worst riot in NBA history, and who pays the worst price? The Pacers, who are still trying to recover from the destruction of what many thought was a championship team. New York’s Mardy Collins gives a pile driver foul on Denver’s J.R. Smith and who ends up paying the worst price? The Nuggets who lose Carmelo Anthony, the NBA’s leading scorer, for 15 games. Big shot Rob comes up with a BIG shot on Steve Nash, and who gets punished? The Suns, who will lose their home court advantage by playing game five without all-NBA first teamer Amare Stoudemire, and without Boris Diaw. Look, I’m not saying that the NBA shouldn’t suspend players who come off the bench and cause the melee to escalate, all I’m saying is that they’re trying to stop the spread of fire, instead of focusing on stopping the ignition. Basically, what they’ve told the Suns, is that tonight, at some point in the game when Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are on the bench, the Suns should send Pat Burke into the game to lay a hard foul on a driving Manu Ginobili. The reality is that Duncan and Parker will jump up and come to the defense of their teammate (as they should), be suspended for that decision, and the Suns will trade the services of Burke for a game without Parker or Duncan. That’s the logic that the NBA continues to lay out in these situations, when they punish the team that was assaulted, but gives the assaulting team a relative pass. It’s stupid. In this situation, Stoudemire was detained by Suns coaches before he got anywhere near the fight, and Diaw turned himself around. If you actually watch the tape it seems as though Diaw is actually more concerned for Nash and turns back to the bench when he sees Nash get up. So, basically he was suspended for taking two steps towards a fallen teammate and turning around again, wow that’s smart justice!

What does this mean for the Suns? It means that they dust off Jalen Rose, and perhaps Marcus Banks, if only to play five or six minutes each, they also play the whole game with their smallest possible lineup, get pounded on the boards, and use Shawn Marion for all 48 minutes. Can they win? Sure, we have seen in the past, even by these Suns (last year when Raja Bell was suspended for his legendary clothesline of Kobe Bryant), that teams rally for a game when their teammate is suspended. After the Malice at the Palace, the Pacers won their first game without Jermaine O’Neal, Stephen Jackson, and Ron Artest, after the Knicks brawl the Nuggets won their first game without Anthony and Smith, while those teams eventually succumbed to playing without their best players, they rallied for one game. Of course neither of them, nor the Suns last year, were playing the San Antonio Spurs. Really, whether the Suns win or not comes down to their two time MVP. I said at the beginning of this series that the Suns were going to win because of Nash, and this is his moment. This has been a hard series for him, he missed the crucial moments of game one because his nose was gushing blood, he was kneed in the nards by Bruce Bowen, and now, because Robert Horry hammered him into the boards he’s lost his best big man, so what can he do? He can step up, shoot the lights out, get all of his troops on the same page, and will them to victory. If the Suns lose, they’ll lose because of the suits in New York, but if they win, they’ll win because they have the two time MVP and despite what some might think, he actually is that good. Like I said, it’s his moment, his moment to prove those who doubt his MVP awards wrong, his moment to get revenge for all the blows the Spurs have laid on him, his moment to push his nemesis to the brink of elimination, whether he grabs that moment will determine whether the Suns go home, or go BIG.

Clearing Out the NBA Notebook...

The NBA announced their all-NBA teams today and unlike most of the other awards this season, I actually think they got it fairly right. If I were going to quibble about anything, it would be that LeBron James should be on the first team. A move which would send Amare Stoudemire to the second team as a center, promote Kevin Garnett to the second at forward, bump Yao Ming to the third, Dwight Howard out all together, with Shawn Marion added to the third as a forward. While that seems drastic, it’s more just a chain reaction thing than a real cataclysmic restructuring of their decisions. What this really means though, is that we’re only a few days away from the big MVP announcement…

The Idiocy of NBA Playoff Scheduling…

I continue to be confounded, and annoyed, by the NBA’s playoff seeding and schedule. Three nights off between games two and three in the Suns-Spurs series is just down right stupid. Not as stupid as having those two teams playing in the second round, but stupid all the same. You want to maximize the intensity of your playoffs so that fans get into series and have to keep following them. The longer you break the action, and for that point, the longer you draw out the whole proceedings, the less interest fans take. There are four series going on right now, which means I should be able to watch two games every night. Instead, I never know who’s going to be playing, I have to go look online, find out it’s only one game and find other things to occupy my time. Obviously I’m going to come back, but what about the fans who find other things to occupy their time and then forget about the playoffs? Why give them the option? I know that the NBA’s logic is that the longer the playoffs go, the longer the NBA’s in the national consciousness, but I think instead the longer it goes the more irrelevant it becomes. Like the NFL playoffs, the NBA needs to work on making their postseason, shorter, tighter, and thus hotter.

The Idiocy of NBA Playoff Seeding…

Likewise, they need to ensure that the best teams are meeting as late as possible, which means reseeding after the first round. David Stern said to the guys on PTI the other day that the reason the NBA doesn’t reseed after the first round of the playoffs is because the TV guys don’t want to… Uhmmm… really? This is Stern we’re talking about. The man who walks into every meeting knowing that he’s the smartest man at the table, who rules his team with a Stalin-esque influence, who single handedly fixed the 1985 draft to give Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, while simultaneously infiltrating the Soviet Union to bring down the Red Menace. I mean, is there anything he cannot do? Still, if I were a TV executive reading that quote, I’d think to myself, “wait, I do want the best teams meeting as late as possible, and apparently we control that…” This actually might be the moment to try and push through something like that, because I am pretty sure that Stern is distracted right now. I have no real doubts that he’s using his considerable mind powers to alter the memories of every single MVP voter into believing that they voted for Steve Nash, LeBron James, or any member of the Detroit Pistons not named Rasheed Wallace. That way when the MVP announcement goes out and it’s not Dirk, nobody will be surprised. This will be the true test of how far his powers go.

Counter Move, Counter Back…

I was impressed with the lineup changes that Mike D’Antoni made prior to game two, moving eighth man Kurt Thomas into the starting lineup to pester Tim Duncan, which allowed Shawn Marion to use his inhuman reach and athleticism to contain Tony Parker. Thomas helped to neutralize the Spurs advantage on the boards, while only taking a little away from the Suns offensive attack. The real advantage though, came in allowing two of the Suns weaker defenders, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, to cover the Spurs weakest offensive weapons (Bruce Bowen and Francisco Elson). It actually also makes Nash a better defensive weapon, because while his lateral speed makes him a one on one liability (especially against the lightning quick Parker), Nash is an underrated help defender, who sees the passing lanes well, knows the angles, and is fully committed to sacrificing his body in front of much larger players. All of that is neutered if he’s covering Parker, but leaving Bowen to take a charge from Ginobili is an easy choice.

At this point, the Suns have to know that they made the right adjustments to beat San Antonio, and that they were a good bandaid away from leaving Phoenix with a two-oh lead, but they also had better know that Greg Popovich is pretty good at his job, and that he’s going to come back with some changes for them. Game three isn’t a must win for either team, but I’d bet the winner on Saturday wins the series.

Let's Get Ready To Rumble...

Normally, I don’t bother to break down playoff series until the finals, but with the NBA’s two best teams (sorry Dallas, but you clearly were shown to be wanting) meeting in the second round, this just might be the NBA finals, only with the winner having to prove themselves for two more rounds. And, while I wish that the NBA reseeded after the first round, so that we could see Golden State run with Phoenix and San Antonio’s big men topple Houston’s Yao, you cannot deny the excitement of two pillars of NBA style meeting in the second round. Sure, the second round is too early for either team to be eliminated, but given the championship expectations of both clubs, lasting one extra round will hardly reduce the smarting of elimination.

Matchups:

Point Guard:
Phoenix - Steve Nash (PPG 18.6 | APG 11.6 | SPG 0.8 | PER 23.87)
San Antonio - Tony Parker (PPG 18.6 | APG 5.5 | SPG 1.1 | PER 21.46)
Diagnosis: Obviously Nash is the better and more important player, which isn’t about denigrating Parker, who is a better point guard than all but five men in the NBA, but Nash is a two time MVP, and while some might question that, they shouldn’t. He has raised, and adapted, his game for three straight years to ensure one thing: that his team wins. This year, when the re-integration of Amare Stoudemire seemed as though it might pull the team apart, it was Nash who drove them on a 30 of 32 win streak that galvanized the team currently before us. All season he’s played with a look that made me think he deserved a third MVP. Parker’s good, maybe bordering on great, but…
The Word: The “three” time MVP, Steve Nash, is in a different world.

Shooting Guard:
Phoenix - Raja Bell (PPG 14.7 | APG 2.5 | 3P% .413 | PER 12.01)
San Antonio - Michael Finely (PPG 9 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.3 | PER 13.76)
Diagnosis: This matchup points to the failings of analyzing teams in this fashion. In reality, Finely starts the game and then, depending on the matchups, either switches to small forward or gives way to Manu Ginobili. Bell plays a much larger part, defending the opposing team’s best wing, hitting the occasional three, and providing the Suns’ toughness. Both players are important and both contribute in their own way. If each were to play 48 minutes, then tonight, Bell would be the more important player, but you cannot discount the presence of Manu, which makes…
The Word: This is a wash.

Small Forward:
Phoenix - James Jones (PPG 6.4 | RPG 2.3 | APG 0.6 | PER 10.81)
San Antonio - Bruce Bowen (PPG 6.2 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.4 | PER 7.18)
Diagnosis: In the same way that the Spurs start Finely, but bring Manu in for the brunt of the minutes, James Jones starts for the Suns, but it’s Leandro Barbosa who dominates games. For most of the season the Suns started Boris Diaw here, but the flabby Frenchman failed to adapt to the presence of Amare Stoudemire, so Suns coach Mike D’Antoni went instead to Jones. This helps the starting unit and the second unit, as Diaw can create bigger mismatches against opposing teams’ second units. Bowen, obviously, is an integral part of the Spurs. While his defense slipped during the first half of the season, his 37 year old legs recovered to put together another all-defense caliber season. Like Bell, Bowen plays defense and hits threes, which, given the limited role of Jones, is…
The Word: Enough to give Bowen a slight edge.

Power Forward:
Phoenix - Shawn Marion (PPG 17.5 | RPG 9.8 | BPG 1.5 | PER 20.87)
San Antonio - Tim Duncan (PPG 20 | RPG 10.6 | BPG 2.4 | PER 26.2)
Diagnosis: ESPN’s John Hollinger would argue, correctly in my estimation, that Duncan is in fact a center. In reality, Elson starts the game, plays eight minutes, with another eight at the start of the second half, and after that Duncan shifts over to center when the Spurs go small, but then, Marion’s arguably a small forward, so really both are the most important defensive pieces of their team, create matchup problems, and score important points, only…
The Word: Duncan is, plain and simple, the better player.

Center:
Phoenix - Amare Stoudemire (PPG 20.4 | RPG 9.6 | BPG 1.3 | PER 23.15)
San Antonio - Francisco Elson (PG 5 | RPG 4.8 | BPG 0.8 | PER 11.26)
Diagnosis: Perhaps the single most important matchup of the series will be how San Antonio handles Stoudemire. Two years ago when these two teams met, Stoudemire dominated the Spurs big men, averaging 37 points in the Spurs five game victory. If Amare goes off, does Spurs coach Greg Popovich use Duncan on Amare, or does he try to bring a variety of help defenders? San Antonio is the best at making the other team play to their pace, but…
The Word: They seemingly have no answer for Stoudemire.

Sixth Man:
Phoenix - Leandro Barbosa (PPG 18.1 | APG 4 | SPG 1.2 | PER 18.49)
San Antonio - Manu Ginobili (PPG 16.5 | APG 3.5 | 3P% .396 | PER 24.18)
Diagnosis: Both teams understand the importance of having a dynamic game changing talent coming off the pine, and while it was Barbosa who took home the hardware as best sixth man during the regular season, it’s Ginobili who should have (he received precious few votes as voters punished him for starting half the year). In reality, Ginobili is a better player, but Barbosa so perfectly fulfils his role as spark plug off the bench that…
The Word: This is a wash.

Bench:
Phoenix – Boris Diaw, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Banks, Jalen Rose, Pat Burke
San Antonio – Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn, Fabricio Oberto, Beno Udrih
Diagnosis: The Spurs have a deep bench, and even in the playoffs, coach Greg Popovich’s rotation will remain ten deep. Robert Horry, Brent Barry, and Jacque Vaughn are savvy veterans each of whom has a ring (or six in Horry’s case), a clearly defined role, and the trust of Pop. The perception is that the Suns have a bad bench, which, they do. However, it’s a lot worse during the regular season than it is in the playoffs. At this time of year, even the deepest of teams shorten their rotation and only call the number of a few trusted vets. After Barbosa, D’Antoni has Diaw and enforcer Kurt Thomas on the pine. Diaw’s job is to create matchup problems for opposing teams and to create easy baskets for his teammates. Thomas’ job will be to make life annoying for Tim Duncan. After that the Suns bench is a little barren. Jalen Rose thought he’d be contributing by now, but he just cuddles up alongside Pat Burke, Marcus Banks, and Eric Piatkowski. So, while I don’t think Phoenix’s bench is as big a liability right now, if I had to bet on one bench having a tangible outcome on this series, it would be…
The Word: Big Shot Rob and the Spurs bench hitting the key shot.

Coach:
Phoenix - Mike D’Antoni (212-145 .594 regular season. 19-16 .543 playoffs)
San Antonio - Greg Popovich (576-276 .676. | 76-47 .618 3 NBA Championships)
Diagnosis: These are two of the five best coaches in the NBA right now and a solid case could be made for each being the best. Each is the complete embodiment of his team, the physical personification of what he wants his players to accomplish on the floor. Each has a deep, almost symbiotic connection with his star, which allows the teams to govern themselves. Popovich has the hardware, but I don’t think that should be held against D’Antoni. Basically…
The Word: This is a Wash.

X-Factor:
Phoenix - Home Court
San Antonio - Pace
Diagnosis: This series will be won based upon two factors, which team does a better job of controlling the pace, and which steals the most games on the others home floor. Both are dominant home squads (Phoenix 33-8, San Antonio 31-10), but don’t expect this series to go all Utah-Houston on us. San Antonio will take one of the first two games in Phoenix by controlling the pace and forcing the Suns to slow their attack. It will be up to the Suns to run on the Spurs in the Alamo Dome to steal back home court, because the deeper the series goes, the more home court matters. If this series only goes six, then it’s probably because the Spurs have controlled the tempo and win out at home, but if it goes seven…
The Word: Then home court matters most.

Picking a Horse:
Diagnosis: This series is the definition of a clash of styles, and will be seen as something of a referendum on whether small ball, offensive driven basketball can actually win a championship. Both squads are the embodiment of their style of basketball. While the Suns offer a plethora of offensive weapons, whose goal it is to score fast baskets every time down the floor, the Spurs bring suffocating defense, centered around the presence of a hall of fame big man. To most observers, the Suns’ style is the more engaging, but up to now, the Spurs is the more distinguished. There was a perception during the season that of the big three, the Suns could beat the Mavs, the Mavs could beat the Spurs, and the Spurs could beat the Suns. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Mavs aren’t around any longer to knock off the Spurs, so if they want to move on, they’ll have to do it themselves. Can they? Honestly, my head says no, it says that the Spurs are just too talented, too deep, and too well coached, but… my heart, well, my heart says that Steve Nash has had a look all season long, a championship look and that he’s the hungriest man on the court. In essence, that’s what this series is all about, San Antonio is the cerebral choice, while Phoenix is the heart, and…
The Word: I always follow my heart, Suns in seven.

Drowning in a Yellow Sea...

In the end 67 victories mattered not, as the NBA’s regular season MVP and his team drowned in a rabid, churning yellow sea, a buzzing, hornet-like storm they could not have anticipated and couldn't combat. For hoops fans in Oakland, the scene was reminiscent of the Detroit Tigers and their raucous celebration after breaking a decade worth of losing, last fall against New York. For Dallas, the series made 82 regular season games more than meaningless. Like Detroit last year, who poured everything into a record setting early season pace, only to lose in the second round of the playoffs to a late jelling team, Dallas seemingly expended their best through the winter. What they found in Golden State, was a swirling dervish of a team. Something without rhyme or reason, which made it incredibly difficult for their coaches to make adjustments. Conversely, they also found a team, whose opposing coach knew exactly what adjustments to make on them. Who intimately knew their offence and how to throw different defenders, from different angles at Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, it was a terrible performance by the presumed MVP, but it would be a disservice to both the Warriors and Dirk himself, to claim he choked. Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Baron Davis and the rest of the Warriors defenders (a team not particularly well known for their defense), were perfectly suited for defending Dirk. Golden State coach Don Nelson was Dirk’s coach for six plus seasons, and thus he knew where Dirk wanted to take his shots. Under his guidance, the Warriors’ defenders kept Dirk out of those spots and forced him to take difficult shots, harassed by a harem of defenders.

Of course, the league’s best player is supposed to adjust and with the exception of a 3 minute stretch at the end of game five, Dirk never adjusted. He wasn’t alone, Avery Johnson was unable to overcome the match up nightmares created by his mentor, and both he and Dallas owner Mark Cuban fell pray to the war of words with Nellie, a war which a 67 win team should never have to engage in. Michael Jordan, renowned for his killer instinct, was also known as a phenomenal trash talker, but his talk was always based around arrogance. He knew he was the best and he knew you weren’t going to beat him. This week, as Cuban claimed that Nellie was afraid to coach team’s with great expectations, Johnson suggested that the pressure was all on Golden State, and Dirk whined, they didn’t sound like a team that knew they were the best, they sounded like a team making excuses in case they lost. It was Golden State that had the swagger, led by Baron Davis, who was clearly the best player on the floor, Stephen Jackson, who’s championship experience, and “you never know when I might run into the crowd” crazy man edge were invaluable, and Nellie, they seemed relaxed yet cocksure. They were ready to fight, whether it was within the context of the game, or to protect one of their own after the whistle had blown. Loose balls landed in their hands, not because they were standing in the right spots, but because they ran them down. While Dallas feared losing, Golden State seemed sure that they could, and ultimately would, win. Basketball, more than any sport, is a game of rhythm and momentum, while Dallas struggled to find a rhythm, Golden State grabbed the momentum, which gave them a rhythm and suddenly that cylinder was eight feet wide and everything was falling, even off balance, toss it up while lunging to get a foul call, threes. When Davis hit that improbable shot, and the sea of yellow went bananas (no pun intended), the writing was clearly on the wall: after 16 years, the Golden State Warriors are going to the second round and the team with 67 wins is going fishing.

It was an incredible performance by one of pro basketball’s most exciting team’s, in front of what has to be it’s greatest fans (or at least loudest) and it left me with five thoughts:

1) If you look solely at their respective records, this might seem like the biggest upset in NBA history, but I would argue that Dallas wasn’t as good as their record (I did have them third in my ranking of playoff teams), and Golden State was better than their record, just getting healthy at the right time, putting the teachings of Nellie into full throttle, and meeting an opponent that was perfect for them. A massive upset? Yes, of course. The greatest of all time? No, I think that remains Denver over the Sonics in 1994.

2) Given that Stephen Jackson just was the primary defender involved in shutting down Dirk, while also averaging 22 points on 45% shooting, including 33 in last night’s series clinching game, it’s hard to remember that he was such a pariah three months ago that Indiana couldn’t give him away. As ESPN’s Bill Simmons has repeatedly said, a team can survive with one headcase, it’s only when a second one’s added that things become problematic. This is particularly true if they are surrounded by a coach with a strong presence (Don Nelson) and an alpha male star (Baron Davis). That was the secret of Dennis Rodman’s success in Chicago (Phil Jackson and Michael Jordan). Yet that raises a question, why weren’t more contending teams interested? I can see that Jackson would have been a disaster on a team like Charlotte, but why weren’t the Heat (Pat Riley and Shaq), the Jazz (Jerry Sloan and Carlos Boozer), or Lakers (Phil and Kobe) trying to nab him in January? Or, given his knowledge of the Spurs, and the way he just helped eliminate the Mavericks, wouldn’t the Suns have been better off if they’d packaged something with free agent disappointment, Marcus Banks, for Jackson?

3) So where does Dallas go from here? Was this just a random bad stretch in an otherwise brilliant season? Or are there fundamental problems with the team that need fixing? This will be a huge offseason for Dallas as they decide which direction they head in. Really the decision all boils down to whether Dirk is the guy who can lead his team to a title or not. If they still think he can, then they look to resign Jerry Stackhouse and perhaps find a more natural point to improve their half court distribution. If they think he isn’t that guy, then they need to see what packages team’s can put together for him. That may involve a straight up trade for another talent (Indiana’s Jermaine O’Neal) that keeps them competing, or it might involve a package of younger players (say, Boston) which sets off a rebuilding phase. Either way, the decision begins with what Mark Cuban thinks about Dirk Nowitzki.

4) Generally, I have no problem with the way the NBA maintains their seeding, but this year I wish that, like the NHL, the NBA would re-seed after the first round. In part that’s because I think that the two best teams in basketball are, for the second straight year, meeting in the second round, but also it’s just that I would love to watch Phoenix and Golden State go at it in round two. While San Antonio would be a great match up with Houston (assuming they hold serve at home in game seven Saturday night), the Suns Warriors series would stylistically be majestic. Of course, it still might happen, but, oddly enough it seems more likely that Golden State will be there than Phoenix.

5) Which brings us to the most important question of all for Warrior fans, how far can they go? The honest answer right now, assuming that Baron Davis’ hamstrings aren’t going to be an issue, is that it seems clear they can make the conference finals. Houston has two great players, each of whom is somewhat ungaurdable, but Golden State has the small bodies to make life annoying for McGrady and Nellie has frequently proven that he’s a master at taking big centers, of which Houston has an extreme one, out of games. If they face Utah, then we’ll see two offensive teams opening up, but I think the Warriors just have a few more horses, and that Davis shows young Utah point guard Deron Williams what’s the meaning of veteran savvy. Once in the conference finals, I think that the winner of San Antonio Phoenix will just be too strong for Golden State to beat in a seven game series. Of course, that’s what we all just said about Dallas…

Champagne Baths and Ping Pong Balls...

If any league has ever desperately wanted their regular season to end and their post season to begin, it’s the NBA this year. Between the rampant tanking for draft position, and Joey Crawford’s recent ejection of Tim Duncan (which is no laughing matter by the way), NBA commissioner David Stern must be unusually thankful that his season’s over and the focus of the public will be on first round matchups and not fired refs, brawls, new balls, and subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) improving lottery odds

From 16 to number 1 here’s how I’d rank the likelihood of a June Champagne bath for the playoff teams:

16) Washington Wizards – The Wizards are still missing a rugged low post presence to balance out their roster… Oh no, wait, that’s not why they’re the team Toronto, Chicago, and Cleveland spent all week trying to secure in the first round, it’s because Agent Zero, who along might have pulled a first round upset, is stuck on the sidelines until next season.
15) Orlando Magic – The worst team in the playoffs goes against title tested Detroit. Sorry Magic, but Dwight Howard is still too young, and the rest of the roster to anemic, for you to upset the Chauncey Billups’ crew.
14) Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are free-falling, but then of course nobody plays well when they lose both their starting power forward and their starting center. Yes, Kobe alone could win a series, but against the Suns. Not this year.
13) Golden State Warriors – You have to love the Don Nelson versus Dallas first round match up, and yes, GS had incredible success against the Warriors this year, but they aren’t taking the Mavs beyond six games.
12) New Jersey Nets – Another just incredible first round pairing, at least from a water cooler perspective, the Nets are fortunate that Arenas’ injury crippled the Wizards and allowed the Nets to pass them, because Vince Carter might actually try if it means upsetting his former employers, against Chicago they’d have lost fast.
11) Utah Jazz – Utah fans will go apocalyptic about being a slot behind a division rival they beat by six games, but the Jazz have been slumping for two months now. Andrei Kirilenko never broke out of his funk, and they still lack a reasonable starting two guard. What looked like a great first round match up with Houston, now looks like a five or six game series.
10) Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets have finally clicked and if the result isn’t exactly scaring the Spurs, it’s at least making them sweat a little.
9) Toronto Raptors – Not this year for the Raptors, but of course if I’d said six months ago that they’d win their division, finish with the third seed, and possibly win a first round series, well, I think most Raptors’ fans would have been pretty happy with that.
8) Chicago Bulls – Wow, did the Bulls ever drop the ball last night in New Jersey. With the second seed and an opening round match up with Washington on the line, the Bulls lost to the Nets giving the Heat in round one, the Pistons in round two, and the Cavs in round three… ouch.
7) Miami Heat – the Heat have three things going for them: Shaquille O’Neal’s their starting center, Dwayne Wade’s their starting two guard, and Pat Riley’s their bench boss. I think Chicago is perfectly capable of beating them, as we almost saw last year, but I think the Heat are more likely to go all the way.
6) Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron is actually good enough to lead the Cavs out of the East, and their path to the finals was made much easier by their win, and Chicago’s loss last night, but how can I pick a team to win it all with Eric Snow as the starting point guard?
5) Houston Rockets – The Rockets are a chic dark horse team to win it all. With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy, I think the Rockets will make short work of Utah and give Dallas everything the Mavs can handle, but I’m not convinced the Rockets are deep enough to take down the Mavs and the winner of Spurs-Suns.
4) Detroit Pistons – The Pistons are another beneficiary of the Bulls blunder, because they now will play a second round match up against a team that’s given everything to get past round one. I think they’re a little too old, a little too banged up, but nobody’s going to be taking the Pistons for granted.
3) Dallas Mavericks – The Mavs won a league best 67 games, something which has only been done eight time in NBA history. Of those eight, only the 72/73 Celtics failed to convert their regular season success into an NBA championship. So, the smart money would be on the Mavericks winning everything. So why do I have them third? Stupidity mostly, a vague feeling that they weren’t quite as good as their record, and that San Antonio of the Suns will take them in a seven game series.
2) San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs were actually the leagues best team over the season’s second half, and their 8.4 point differential was the best in the league. Yes, they might have the refs against them, but I imagine that an early game call going against them is the most the Joey Crawford fiasco will affect them. David Stern will make it very clear to the refs calling the Spurs games that everything has to be on the even. He can’t have the suggestion of refs with an agenda.
1) Phoenix Suns – I don’t like that they have to play the Spurs in the second round, which is why winning 68 games would have been good. But the Suns don’t have the depth that the Mavs do, to make every game count. In the playoffs however, I think the strength of their top six overcomes the depth of Dallas and San Antonio. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but it seems that the Steve Nash has that determined look this year. He’s still having fun, but he’s fierce at the same time.



And in the season that will forever be remembered for it’s blatant tank jobs, I’d be remiss if I talked about the playoff team without mentioning this year’s (ahem) losers… here’s how I want the lottery results to play out:

1) Boston – The Celtics should be a great team. Even though I dread the thought of Bill Simmons wetting himself over the chance to draft one of the big two (Greg Oden or Kevin Durant), I just cannot escape the thought that seeing a team with such a storied history, languishing in mediocrity and irrelevance is heartbreaking. It’s the same reason that three years ago when the NHL conducted its “Sidney Draft” I was secretly hoping that Montreal would win the rights to Crosby. Sure, it would have meant watching my roommate, Big Sexy, walk around with a boner for two months, but at least the greatest franchise in NHL history would have mattered. A top two pick in this draft will make the Celtics relevant and that’s all I can ask for. (Greg Oden).

2) Portland – If the Trailblazers defied the odds and won the lottery I’d be Ok with that. Sure it’s not quite Celtic lore, but this is a proud fan base that’s suffered egregious harm from Paul Allen’s questionable ownership. Actually, David Stern should use his phenomenal powers (I’m pretty sure he can affect the lottery, just with the power of his brain, kind of like a Jedi mind trick, but without the goofy hair), to put Oden or Durant in Portland. (Kevin Durant).


3) Chicago – When James Dolan gave Isaiah Thomas the hearty thumbs up for a job well done, the pick that Chicago would have gotten from the Knicks was 16th, which wouldn’t have made the Eddy Curry trade so terrible. Of course, if Curry doesn’t tip in that last second shot against Charlotte last night the Bulls would’ve had 5.8% chance of the top spot, but instead they have a 1.867% chance, still jumping up to third would still make the trade lopsided. (Al Horford).

4) Memphis – The Grizzlies last place finish means that they can drop to no worse than fourth, so whatever, they finish here, maybe if they’d never left their much, much cooler home I’d want them to win the lottery, but in Memphis? Even the local Elvis’ don’t care… (Joakim Noah).

5) Milwaukee – Did you know that there’s a 15.6% chance that Milwaukee wins the lottery and Durant plays the first decade of his career in Wisconsin? Actually the odds are higher if you figure out what the possibility of them winning the second slot are. With a frontline of him, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva they’d be good, really good, but… ughhh… Wisconsin? Really? For some reason it bothers me less for Oden than Durant, I’m not sure why. (Julian Wright)

6) Phoenix – The Suns can get the fourth pick if Atlanta’s pick ends up outside the top three. And at worst, they’ll end up with the 6th choice, which is still good enough in this draft to grab an awesome talent. Of course, it’s just as likely that Atlanta ends up in the top three. (Brandon Wright).

7) Seattle – If the Sonics take Chad Ford’s sixth rated prospect, then we can see how giant Chinese youngster gets along with the folks in Oklahoma City. (Yi Jianlian).

8) Minnesota – After the top three selections the lottery just conforms to the standings (with ties decided by coin flip), which really makes the rest of this just an exercise in typing and pithy comments. (Mike Conley).

9) Charlotte – The Bobcats could actually contend for a playoff spot next year just by having Sean May, Raymond Felton, and Emeka Okafor healthy, but getting someone special in the ninth spot certainly would help. (Corey Brewer).

10) Sacramento – The Kings need to blow things up. Find Mike Bibby a new home (difficult, but probably not impossible), find Ron Artest a new home (quite possibly impossible), and draft a replacement for the suddenly ancient Brad Miller (entirely possible in this draft). (Spencer Hawes).

11) Atlanta – Even if the Hawks are shut out of the top part of the draft, which they very well might not be, they’ll still get to draft in the lottery thanks to the Pacers’ acquisition of Al Harrington. Since Harrington’s already been traded by Indiana, who subsequently missed the playoffs, this actually is one of Billy King’s better deals. (Roy Hibbert).

12) Philadelphia – Philly fans thought the 76ers thought they’d be challenging for Oden, but the AI trade and subsequent dumping Chris Webber, actually made them a pretty good team. (Jeff Green).

13) New Orleans – Another club that needs some good health to be in the playoffs. Since their .6% chance of winning the lottery seems unlikely of helping them out, they’d better hope that freshman studs like Thaddeus Young and Chase Buddinger come out. Both will probably still be here at 13, but only because the top of this draft is so good.

14) Los Angeles – The only way the Clippers season is not seen as incredibly disappointing is if they pull a 1993 Magic and go from the worst lottery odds, to lottery Kings. But that’s about as likely as me winning the big 12 million draw this weekend. (Acie Law).