2007 American League West Preview:

Say whatever you want about Billy Beane and the whole Moneyball concept (which is misrepresented most of the time it’s represented), but since the turn of the decade the American League West has been Billy’s world. In seven seasons, the Athletics have won the division four times, taken the Wild Card with 102 wins in 2001, and never finished lower than second. While this is far from Yankee-like domination, it’s an phenomenal feat when you juxtapose it against the incredible turnover Oakland has undergone almost every season. The names on the lockers change, heck even the name on the manager’s door changes, but the one constant is Beane. This offseason, the A’s said goodbye to flamboyant lefthander, and Cy Young winner, Barry Zito. While there is a lot of debate about Zito’s status as an ace, there is no debate that his departure, along with that of manager Ken Macha, marks something of an end of an era. Only third baseman Eric Chavez now remains from that first great team that Beane constructed. The Giambi-Tejada-Hudson-Mulder-Zito star core has been replaced by depth and versatility. The A’s now win with names like Scutaro, Swisher, Haren, and Street. They still find the occasional young gem, but they’ve also become experts at taking the old and unwanted (Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Jay Payton, and Shannon Stewart) and finding value. They no longer look dominant, but they are the division’s constant.

While the Athletics have paced the division, Texas has spent the entire decade looking for pitching, and the Seattle Mariners have gone from 116 wins in 2001 to 63, 69, and 78 wins the last three years. Only the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim), with their billionaire owner, massive market, and --- oh yeah --- their rally towel 2002 championship, can claim to have left a similar type imprint on the division. Yet, despite that title, when you think of the West, the first name on your tongue is that of Beane, not Angels’ owner Arte Moreno. Which is odd, given the financial disparities of the two teams, it’s the Angels who should be ruling the roost, using their massive resources to control the division. The Angels have the financial might to levy large contracts on big stars, and they have a minor league organization which has been ranked 5th, 3rd, 1st, and 4th by Baseball America over the past four years. With Zito pitching across the Bay, Oakland looks shakier then they have at any other time in the Beane era, which makes this the perfect season for the Angels to take a lesson from their East Coast big market rivals and start bullying the other Western teams.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (89-73 Last Season)

Projected Win Range: 90-94
Best Player: Vladimir Guerrero – He might have a balky back, and his knees make him run like a wounded buffalo, but the free swinging Guerrero still gets solid wood on more balls than anyone in baseball.
Best Pitcher: John Lackey – The unsung hero of the Angels’ rotation, Lackey held down the fort last year, after reigning Cy Young winner, Bartolo “Is this the line of the all you can eat buffet” Colon, was lost. In his four full seasons, Lackey has yet to win fewer than 10 games, and his ERA + the past two years is a very impressive 123.
Best Kid: Howie Kendrick – The Angels have such depth in their organization, that this could just as easily be Brandon Wood, or Nick Adenhart, or Erick Aybar, but Kendrick --- whom many project as a future multiple batting champion --- gets the edge as he’ll start the year with a regular spot in LA’s lineup.
Impact Offseason Move: Signing innings-eating set-up man Justin Speier to a four year 16 million contract.
Questionable Offseason Move: Gary Matthews Jr. already embarrassed the organization when his name was tied to an HGH supply ring, but even if his name had not broken in that scandal, giving the soon to be 32 year old, with one “career” year 50 million over five years was dumb.
Bottom Line: I don’t want to pick the Angels, I really don’t. Frankly I think they had a terrible offseason, with the poor Matthews deal compounded by a knee jerk one year deal for the petulant Shea Hillenbrand. While the Angels’ farm system is deep, outfield is the one area where they lack star power, but with two top flight shortstops (Wood and Aybar) blocked by incumbent Orlando Cabrera, why not move one for some outfield help. Or dangle one of their excess starters? There were better, and cheaper, options on the market than Matthews, and the Angels --- who signed Hillenbrand after incumbent DH Juan Rivera tore knee ligaments over the winter --- had better in house options than Shea. Still, the Angels are so deep in the rotation and so deep in the minors, that I cannot honestly envision anyone in the AL West beating them out. Lackey leads a rotation that might not be flashy, but is young and supremely effective. Even if sophomores Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver slump, the Angels have veterans Hector Carrasco, Kelvim Escobar, and Ervin Santana to pick up the slack, which doesn’t even broach the return of Colon sometime in early May. The offence still lacks reasonable protection for Guerrero, but they should generate enough runs to give their pitchers the lead, and the Angels’ bullpen is too good (and too deep) to blow many leads.

Oakland Athletics (93-69)

Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Nick Swisher – Whether it’s at first base, or any of the three outfield spots, Swisher shows up to play wherever the A’s need him. Somewhat of a super utility man, he also put 35 balls over the fence, while drawing 97 free passes.
Best Pitcher: Danny Haren – I would like nothing better than to write Rich Harden’s name here, but the young Victorian is starting to look eerily similar to the Cubs’ star crossed pair (Mark Prior and Kerry Wood). Meanwhile, all Haren does is show up, throw seven innings of three run ball, and stand and wait for his bullpen to tie up the win.
Best Kid: Travis Buck – Billy Beane has stockpiled veteran outfielders, but he needs to be careful not to block the path of Buck, who projects as the A’s right fielder of the future and should be ready by mid season.
Impact Offseason Move: I think the time is right (maybe even a year too late) for Mike Piazza to spend 140 games in the lineup as a DH. Don’t be worried about his career stats as a DH, once the hall of fame catcher adjusts to the cadence of only batting in games, he should become settle in as one of baseball’s best DH’s.
Questionable Offseason Move: Well, I’m not wild about the two year deal they handed to Alan Embree, but that’s some serious quibbling.
Bottom Line: I’d never bet against the A’s, but if they don’t get 30 starts from Rich Harden, then their once formidable pitching staff will struggle. While they would like to get a full injury free season from shortstop Bobby Crosby, it’s Harden on who’s shoulders the A’s season hangs. Losing Zito isn’t a huge blow, if Harden can stay healthy, because when he pitches, the former Claremont Secondary star is one of the few pitchers who can challenge Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young. What Beane has done with the A’s is replace all those stars with a deep, talented lineup. Nobody blows you away with their numbers, but combined they do just enough to win 70 games in the season’s final three months. After last year, Beane fired manager Ken Macha (oddly enough for the second time in less than a year) and while much of that was because of Macha’s aloofness alienating everybody within the organization, it also has something to do with the A’s trademark slow starts. While the media might find them charming and quaint, Beane realizes that slow starts likely cost him the division in 2004, and made things interesting last year. A slow start his year might create too big a hole for the A’s to climb their way out of, especially if they are doing that climbing without Harden.

Texas Rangers (80-82)

Projected Win Range: 84-89
Best Player: Mark Teixeira – He might have had an off year in 2006, but the big, switch hitting, gold glove first baseman should bounce back in a serious way in 2007. If you want to put money on somebody winning the AL home run title, he should be your guy.
Best Pitcher: Kevin Millwood – After winning the American League ERA title with Cleveland in 2005, Millwood saw his 2.86 ERA jump to 4.52 last year. Those warm, breezy afternoons at the Ballpark in Arlington will do that to you, but Texas will be happy if Millwood continues to shrug off the numbers difference and posts another 16 wins.
Best Kid: Brandon McCarthy – after being touted as the next big thing in Chicago for the past two years, McCarthy was surprisingly sent to the Rangers this offseason for minor leaguer John Danks. While he never seemed to have a roster spot for the White Sox, in Texas, the young righty will immediately step into the three slot in the rotation.
Impact Offseason Move: the McCarthy trade made sense, as he and Danks have similar upsides and are close in age (23-21), but McCarthy’s ready to help the big club right now.
Questionable Offseason Move: Overpaying Michael Young will handcuff this organization worse than overpaying Alex Rodriguez did.
Bottom Line: Any close observer of history would note that the Rangers are a lock to win the World Series this year. After all, the last two teams to fire Buck Showalter won the World Series in the very next year. Of course, unlike the Yankees of 1996, or the Diamondback of 2001, the Rangers don’t have a dynamite, lights out pitching staff. While Joe Torre inherited a team with Jimmy Key, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetland, and Bob Brenly inherited a team with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, new Texas manager Ron Washington inherits a team with Vincente Padilla as the number two starter and Akinori Otsuka as the closer. While Washington may be as talented as his two post-Showalter predecessors, he will be hard pressed to match their results without a phenomenal recovery from former Dodger closer Eric Gagne, who’s missed most of the past three seasons. This scribe hates to say it, but a dominant turn by Gagne seems unlikely. More likely is getting solid production from the Rangers’ other flier: tarnished, 38 year old Sammy Sosa. If he can hit 25 plus home runs the removal of the anal and acerbic Showalter reinvigorates the careers of Teixeira and third baseman Hank Blalock, then maybe the Rangers can survive with some sub par outings from the mound. But most likely, the season for the Rangers will come down to how many pitchers can throw strikes and keep the ball from flying over the fence.

Seattle Mariners (78-84)

Projected Win Range: 80-84
Best Player: Raul Ibanez – Some might think Ichiro belongs here, and the Mariners new centerfielder certainly is the Mariners best player to watch, but over the past two seasons, Ibanez has been the M’s most consistent hitter.
Best Pitcher: Felix Hernandez – All this talk about Hernandez getting the kid gloves taken off and being used like a man is a bit ridiculous. Yes, Hernandez is the Mariners best pitcher and they should want him throwing as often as possible, but he’s also only 21 and they should want him throwing as often as possible for the next decade. Just because he wants to pitch as much as possible (as he should), doesn’t mean you don’t keep an eye on his pitch counts, limit his appearances, and benefit from the excitement of a healthy young superstar hurler.
Best Kid: Adam Jones – Jones didn’t blow anyone away in his major league debut last year, but he did give enough glimpses of his talent to keep expectations high. The converted shortstop could still use a half year in AAA to work on his outfield play, but don’t be surprised to see him push Jose Guillen from the third outfield spot.
Impact Offseason Move: Given the massive contracts handed to pitchers this offseason, the three year, 25 million deal the Mariners gave Miguel Batista is fairly solid.
Questionable Offseason Move: Not to pick on the M’s, but it could be the signing of the cancerous Jose Guillen, or the one year deal for Jeff Weaver who had a 6.29 ERA pitching in the AL West last year. Or, it might have been sending two prospects to Washington so they could overpay a light hitting second baseman, who’s knees are so bad he’s now reisgned to DH.
Bottom Line: The Mariners were actually a decent club last year, winning 78 games; and with some good moves might have made a push for .500 this year, but last winter, the first move of the organization should have been disposing of outclassed GM Bill Bavasi. Besides those questionable moves above, Bavasi also shipped ace set-up man Rafael Soriano to the Braves for marginal fifth starter Haracio Ramirez. Now, in general a starter is more valuable than a reliever, but… If Ramirez was struggling as a starter in the National league, what’s going to happen when he starts facing American League lineups? The Mariners will be better than people think, just because King Felix is a year older, their infield is solid to good across the board and Ichiro is still a dynamic player, but unless Bavasi makes a couple smart moves during the season (and his track record doesn’t leave you hopeful), then the moves he made this winter will hold the team back this year and next.