2007 American League Central Preview:

Top to (not quite) bottom, there is no better division in baseball than the American League Central. You have the premier pitcher (Johan Santana), one of the two best closers (Joe Nathan), the best catcher (Joe Mauer), and the 2006 AL MVP (Justin Morneau). And that’s only from one team. You also have baseball’s best young player (Grady Sizemore), arguably its best hitter (Travis Hafner), young flamethrowers (Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya), and even the top minor league prospect (Alex Gordon). Yet, despite all that talent, the real stars of the division might be the guys who assembled all that talent. While Oakland GM Billy Beane draws all the press (much of it deserved), the Central boasts a quartet of highly accomplished GM’s who are at the top of their game. The least accomplished of the group, Mark Shapiro, has rebuilt the Indians, while slashing the bloated payroll from 92 million the year before he took over, to an estimated 58 million this year. The dividends on the field have thus far been mixed, but nobody can question his eye for young talent, as evidenced by his acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner, and Grady Sizemore. Likewise, nobody can question the results of Chicago gunslinger, Kenny Williams, who unlike most GMs is proactive and aggressive in acquiring talent. His bold moves (including standing by controversial manager Ozzie Guillen) were validated with a World Series win in 2005. Dave Dombrowski also has a World Series win on his resume, the 1997 title with the Marlins, and he deserves ample credit for starting the rebuilding that led to the Marlins’ 2003 title. But his greatest feat was taking over a 119 loss team and building an AL champion in three years. When he gave ageing hall of fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez and injury prone slugger Magglio Ordonez massive contracts, the baseball world scoffed that Dombrowski was just continuing to bog down a terrible franchise. Instead, Dombrowski understood that Detroit had been so terrible for so long (and especially in 2003), that he needed to overpay just to perk guys’ interest. It worked and in 2006 Detroit reappeared on the baseball map in a big way. They might even have won their first division title in 18 years, if not for the fourth, and perhaps best, man in this quartet: Minnesota’s Terry Ryan. While Ryan lacks the big jewel encrusted ring that Williams and Dombrowski wear, his work is beyond reproach. While operating in a place where free agents do not generally sign, and never operating with a payroll above 63 million, Ryan has managed to keep his team competitive by drafting and developing players better than anyone in baseball (Santana, Mauer, Morneau were all homegrown talents), and augmenting those talents with savvy trades (savvy might be an understatement for sending A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, and Joe Nathan).

To this acclaimed group comes youngster Dayton Moore. KC is Moore’s first job as the top dog, but he apprenticed for 12 years under Atlanta’s John Schuerholz (who might know a trick or two). Whether or not, Kansas City’s new GM is able to live up to the standard set by his central division rivals will go a long way towards determining whether KC can climb out of the basement of baseball’s top division.


Cleveland Indians (78-84 Last year)
Projected Win Range: 90-94
Best Player: Grady Sizemore – He’s a phenomenal talent and this year the world will notice how good he is.
Best Pitcher: C.C. Sabithia – The big leftie is a serious power pitcher, who has 81 career wins at the tender age of 26.
Best Kid: Adam Miller – Like most young pitchers, Miller will probably start the season in AAA, polishing his game, while the big club awaits the inevitable in season injury (or talent depreciation). With four above average pitches, the right hander should be well equipped when he does arrive.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading minor league third base prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff to the Padres for young hotshot second baseman Josh Barfield.
Questionable Offseason Move: Separately, I liked the acquisition of David Dellucci and Trot Nixon, but why spend 14.5 million on two identical players? It’s not the worst decision, but for a team with a 60 odd million payroll, every penny counts.
Bottom Line: The Indians were one of baseball’s surprise teams in 2005, winning 93 games and having a chance to make the postseason until a disastrous final weekend sweep. Last year the sweep seemingly carried over as the Indians fell back to a disappointing 78 wins. So predicting them to win 90 games might seem like a bold proclamation, except for two things. In 2005 the Indians were an extremely talented young team that improved beyond expectations, whenever a young team achieves such success one season, it is almost always followed by a disappointing depreciation the next. It’s natural, common, and never an indicator that a young team isn’t actually very talented. The second, which also supports that theory, is that the Indians had a superb run differential last season. Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage projected them to have a record of 89-73, while that might seem to be entirely arbitrary, it’s not. What it actually shows, is that the Indians were incredibly unlucky last year, and that with better they would have been an 89 win team. From that vantage point, seeing them jump to 91 or 92 wins isn’t so difficult.

Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Carlos Guillen – As good as Jim Leyland was last year, he made some confounding lineup decisions, the most egregious of which (well, besides any time he used Neifi Perez in the two hole) was batting Guillen fifth. Guillen is the team’s best hitter and should have hit third last year.
Best Pitcher: Justin Verlander – Don’t expect him to go win 17 games again, but Verlander’s stuff is dynamite and his mound composure cocksure. Only injury will hold him back from being a top ten pitcher for the next decade.
Best Kid: Cameron Maybin – He’s only nineteen, so he might be another year away, but Maybin’s very good and with a strong season, might force his way into Detroit’s lineup for September’s pennant race.
Impact Offseason Move: Giving up young pitching is never easy, but Dombrowski knew that his clubs offensive success last season was a bit fortunate (heavy with home runs, short with walks), bringing in Gary Sheffield and his .395 career OBP should help give raise the offence.
Questionable Offseason Move: Sean Casey provides so little offensively at this point, that unless he’s giving pre-game rub downs I question whether his clubhouse value negates the fact that he had a .650 OPS last year.
Bottom Line: Tigers fans are a aflutter and any time somebody suggests that they aren’t locks to win the division, they get all frenetic and testy. Calm down lads, it’ll all be ok, but… your team probably wont win the division. First off, your pitching was great last year, but Kenny Rogers is 400 years old and without palm enhancing products probably doesn’t win 17 games again. Likewise, Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robinson all enjoyed long healthy seasons, which one hopes they will again, but… Teams rarely have four-fifths of their pitching staff predominantly healthy for two straight years. Offensively, Sheffield will help, as will the return of Placido Polanco, but Pudge will be a little worse, Casey’s an albatross and Craig Monroe’s numbers probably depreciate. So, another playoff appearance might not be forthcoming, but Detroit still has plenty to cheer about. Dombrowski has stocked the pipelines with guys like Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Jordan Tata, each of whom should be helping the big club by 2008. After years of being irrelevant, Tigers’ fans should be happy that their team is set to contend for the rest of the decade, without caring whether they’re being picked to win this year.

Minnesota Twins (96-66)
Projected Win Range: 87-91
Best Player: Joe Mauer – The AL MVP wasn’t even the MVP of his own team. Not that I’m complaining about the award coming with Justin Morneau to Vancouver, but… Nobody’s as valuable and unique as Mauer. His exceptional work behind the plate and at the plate put him in a league of his own.
Best Pitcher: Johan Santana – He should be the three time defending Cy Young champ, but the voters are overly swayed by wins, so instead Santana will have to settle for being the defending champ, and the proverbial “best pitcher in baseball.”
Best Kid: Matt Garza – Don’t expect Liriano-like first year production from the kid, but Garza is a better pitcher than Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Carlos Silva.
Impact Offseason Move: Inking Mauer for four years takes the cake.
Questionable Offseason Move: Last year the Twins entered the season giving jobs to washed up veterans, over the kids. After a 17-24 start, the veterans were scraped near the end of May. The Twins went 78-40 after letting the kids play. So this offseason, why would they make the same questionable decision for their pitching staff? Ponson? Ortiz? Why not Garza and Glenn Perkins?
Bottom Line: Like Ryan, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire is incredibly underrated. Those four division titles have all come with Gardenhire at the helm. In five years he’s yet to finish below .500. With that track record, it’s risky to bet against the Twins, but… I cannot cast a vote with Ponson, Silva, and Ortiz. Their lineup deep and solid, but don’t hold your breathe waiting for Mauer to win the batting title again, or for Morneau to win the MVP. It’s a regression towards the mean thing, which doesn’t mean they aren’t exceptional players, who’ll have good years, but even ARod occasionally has an off year. For the Twins offence to be as good as last year, DH Jason Kubel must finally put together the talents that have made him a Rob Neyer favorite for three years now, and veterans Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo must maintain their production. Still, for Ryan and Gardenhire’s team to win their fifth division title in six years, the Twins will need three pitchers to step up behind perennial great Johan Santana. Boof Bonser and the two kids above combining for 85 effective starts would make the Twins extremely formidable, but that might be too much to ask in 2007.

Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Projected Win Range: 81-85
Best Player: Jermaine Dye – This also might be Paul Konerko or it might be Jim Thome, but I can tell you for certain it isn’t Scott Podsednik or Darin Erstad.
Best Pitcher: Mark Buehrle – Last year was a difficult one for Buerhle, and as he enters his walk year, will we see a return to the effective groundball inducing pitcher of the past, or was last year the begining of the end?
Best Kid: John Danks – Rumor has it that the 21 year old right hander made the Sox’s rotation as the fifth starter…
Impact Offseason Move: … If that’s true then GM Kenny Williams shipping Brandon McCarthy to Texas for Danks will rank as another notch on his already holey belt.
Questionable Offseason Move: Darin Erstad is not, I repeat not, the answer in centerfield. I don’t care how tough he is, that he was the punter for his college football team, or that he’s “plucky” (read: short and white), an outfield with both him and Podsednik will be one of the worst in baseball.
Bottom Line: Kenny Williams is very astute, he has the cahones to gamble and make moves while other GMs wait and hope for the perfect deal to fall in their lap. Having said that, if the White Sox go into the season with Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad hitting at the top of the lineup, they will lose, a lot. Podsednik had a .680 OPS last summer, and an anemic .330 on base percentage. I don’t care how fast and gritty he is, those numbers are terrible. And Erstad, whom the Angels championed for years because of his “punter persona”? Well, Erstad had a scintillating .276 on base percentage. Do you know what that means? That means that when Jim Thome and his massive bat walks into the batters box this Summer, he’ll do so with two outs and nobody on base. The Sox have one of the best 3-4-5’s in baseball, but if they’re always at the plate with two outs, the damage that Thome, Konerko, and Dye can do will be limited. Ultimately, the Sox’s season will depend on how many runs they can score, because their pitching staff has gone from blindingly good in 2005, to good in 2006, to solid this year. If Williams cannot acquire better hitters at the top of the lineup, then the Sox will resemble a .500 team more than the Champions they so recently were.

Kansas City Royals (62-100)
Projected Win Range: 65-69
Best Player: Alex Gordon – Baseball America’s minor league player of the year will be the Royals’ best player the second he steps on the field. He’s not just compared to George Brett because he’s a third baseman, it’s because he blends a wide array of skills, with a subtle undertanding of the game.
Best Pitcher: Gil Meche – Ouch…
Best Kid: Billy Butler – For now the Royals continue to pretend that Butler is an outfielder, but when Mike Sweeny suffers his inevitable injury, then Butler will jump from AAA to the big club. Once there, Butler will do what he does, hit, hit, and hit some more.
Impact Offseason Move: Hiring the forty year old Moore is the best move owner David Glass has made in, well, uhmmm… ever.
Questionable Offseason Move: Maybe signing Gil Meche to a five year 55 million deal is Moore’s “Dombrowski signing Pudge” move. Maybe Meche pitches well, the Royals get better, and players realize it’s ok to sign in Kansas City… or maybe he’s paying 11 million a year to a borderline fourth starter?
Bottom Line: The Royals will be better this year, but since they lost a 100 games last summer, that doesn’t really say much. Gordon’s a stud, a guy who can be a hall of famer if injuries don’t curtail him. Butler will be up soon enough and he’ll hit and Mark Teahen had a break out year in 2006. But the holes in the lineup are still massive. Angel Berroa might be the worst player in baseball. First baseman Ryan Shealy has a whopping 9 career home runs, and since he was born before me, he can’t exactly be considered a kid any longer, and catcher Jason LaRue had a .317 OBP for Cincinnati last year. Worse yet, the Royals pitching is hard to predict, and in a “who’s actually going to pitch for them” bad way, not a “there’s a chance they could be good” way. Obviously Meche is pegged in as the ace, but after him it’s a hodgepodge of castoffs (Odalis Perez, Jorge De La Rosa) and question marks (Zach Greinke, who missed all but six starts last year with clinical depression). Gordon, Butler, and 2006 top pick Luke Hochevar represent hope, as does the hiring of Moore to steer the ship, but right now 70 wins looks like a best case scenario.