2007 National League Central Preview:

The National League central is a study in contrasts, on the one hand the division has seemingly dominated the National League over the past three years, representing the senior circuit in the World Series each time, and winning last fall. On the other hand, that championship team, the St. Louis Cardinals, won the division with a paltry 83 victories. So what is the Central? Dominant? Or mediocre? Or, can it actually be both? In reality, baseball is a very fluid thing, three years ago the central was easily the best division in the National League, with the Cardinals winning an MLB best 105 games and the Astros following that up with a Wild Card worthy 92. The next year both team regressed a little, dropping to 100 and 89 wins, but as the entire League descended into mediocrity, the 89 wins were again enough for Houston to win the Wild Card. And once in the tournament, well, as the saying goes, “momentum’s all about who’s on the mound for you tomorrow.” Houston was able to parlay their 89 wins into the National League title based on the superb pitching performances of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt. The same followed last year, when the Cardinals regressed in spectacular fashion, from 100 wins to 83, but managed to get enough (surprisingly) strong outings from Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Anthony Reyes to upset the heavily favored Tigers in the Series. So the truth, whether those stalwart fans in middle America want to admit it, is that the division, so strong three years ago, now stinks. The mighty Cards did little this offseason to upgrade their talent, while Houston clearly took a big step back with the departures of Pettitte and (presumably) Clemens.

Ironically, the Central was the baseball’s most egregious spenders in a winter of ridiculous spending, but with the exception of a massive contract from Houston for Calros Lee (see below), the spending was all centralized to one quiet, Midwest city. After watching their World Series drought stretch past the century mark (see, that’s why I love baseball, in no other sport is there the possibility of a team having a 100 year championship drought, especially a franchise with as much tradition as the Cubs), not too mention watching their cross town rivals celebrate, the Cubs decided it was time to get serious. So they dipped into parent company Tribune’s piggy-bank and went spending. There was 126 million for a leadoff hitter with a career .325 OBP, there was 40 million for a starting pitcher who posted a 4.31 ERA last year, heck, there was even a couple million to extend the misery that has been the Kerry Wood era. So despite spending almost 500 million dollars (admittedly, more than 300 of that was the Cubbies), it’s hard to see how the National League Central improved itself. Sure, the division wont be won by a team with only 83 wins again, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be good either.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)

Projected Win Range: 85-89
Best Player: Albert Pujols – Well, duh…
Best Pitcher: Chris Carpenter – I’m sorry, really, but watching the remarkable post injury success of Carpenter makes it hard for this die-hard Jays’ fan to sleep at night.
Best Kid: Adam Wainwright – It might be hard for Wainwright have a bigger impact than last year, when he used his sublime curve ball to embarrass some of baseball’s best hitters in the ninth inning of the NLCS and World Series, but a move to the rotation as the Cards number two pitcher will give him the opportunity.
Impact Offseason Move: Not giving massive contracts to Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, both of whom were hopping to cash in on their good playoff showings.
Questionable Offseason Move: I like Adam Kennedy, but the Angels realized after their 2002 World Series that they couldn’t win another with a Kennedy-David Eckstein infield, so why are the Cardinals trying to do the same in 2007?
Bottom Line: St. Louis will be better than last year, but they’ll also be worse. Which is a convoluted way of saying they’ll win more than 83 games, but not the World Series. Their rotation has been overhauled, only Carpenter remains from last year’s Opening Day starters. They aren’t as strong as the five-some that helped the ’04 Cards win 105 games, but Wainwright, Reyes, Kip Wells, and Braden Looper do offer an upgrade over Suppan, Jason Marquis, Sidney Ponson, and the shell of Mark Mulder. Offensively, the Cardinals are marginally worse than last year, if only because second year man Chris Duncan is priemd for something of a sophmore slump, while the 36 year old Jim Edmonds and 32 year old Scott Rolen will continue their decline. Still, I think that the Cardinals will hold off the surprising Brewers in the Central, because they have one thing nobody else in the division has: Albert Pujols.

Milwaukee Brewers (75-87)

Projected Win Range: 83-87
Best Player: Bill Hall – Prince Fielder is the bigger presence (literally) and name (figuratively), but Hall virtually symbolizes the entire Brewers team, because nobody’s ever really heard of him, but he’s better than you think. Converted from third to short last year when starting shortstop J. J. Hardy was lost for the year, Hall will now fill the Brewers gap in center. Combine that selfless versatility with 35 home runs and a .898 OPS and you can see why the Brew Crew are high on Hall.
Best Pitcher: Ben Sheets – It isn’t a stretch to say (again) that the Brewers hopes are largely dependent on getting 32 starts from the dominating Sheets.
Best Kid: Yovani Gallardo – Baseball America’s third highest rated minor league pitcher (after the Yankees’ Phil Hughes and the Reds’ Homer Bailey), Gallardo projects as a front line starter and should be helping this squad by mid summer, if not sooner.
Impact Offseason Move: The trade that sent extra starter Doug Davis to Arizona for former all star catcher Johnny Estrada will provide an upgrade behind the plate in America’s beer capital.
Questionable Offseason Move: 42 million is a lot of money for a 32 year old pitcher who’s only had one season with a sub-four ERA.
Bottom Line: I was quite bullish on the Brewers last year, selecting them as my surprise Wild Card team, and while they failed to have a winning record for the 14th straight season, I remain quite high on them. With third base prospect Ryan Braun almost ready to take over the hot corner, the Brewers are about to possess Baseball’s best young infield. With the bigger than life Fielder at first, Rickie Weeks at second, Hardy at short, and Braun at third, the Brewers will have four infielders with all star potential, none of whom has yet turned 25. Yet, it might be another year before the Brewers take the central by storm. Braun will begin the year in AAA to iron out the quirks in his defense, and their pitching staff is one great starter away from surviving the inevitable Ben Sheets injury. That starter is, of course, already in their system, but whether or not Gallardo’s ready is another question. If the Brewers are to make a Detroit-like run from forgotten team to division champ, then they will need Gallardo to make like Justin Verlander and skip the acclimatizing yourself to the majors’ step and go straight to dominating. More likely he takes a few months to figure things out and the Brewers take another year before finishing on top, but either way I expect them to keep the Cardinals on their toes all summer, and finally finish above the .500 mark.

Chicago Cubs (66-96)

Projected Win Range: 78-82
Best Player: Derek Lee – Or maybe it’s actually Alfonso Soriano, but only if he hits like he did last year, not the two before that. Lee, when healthy, is the solid stud around which the wild Wriggly winds blow. He keeps the team grounded.
Best Pitcher: Carlos Zambrano – Last year everyone finally realized that despite the hype bestowed upon Wood and Mark Prior, Zambrano is actually the best pitcher in Chicago. The Cubs had better not have emptied their piggy bank this year, because Zambrano’s about to become a free agent and he’s going to cost quite a bit more than a pretty penny.
Best Kid: Felix Pie – After impeding the potential of former top centerfield prospect Corey Patterson, the Cubs intend to be patient with the talented Pie. Unfortunately for them, Soriano doesn’t look like much of a centerfielder and they may need Pie’s defense now, even if his bat isn’t quite ready.
Impact Offseason Move: Given the money dropped on guys this offseason, how can you not LOVE the Cubs retaining all star third baseman Aramis Ramirez (and his .912 OPS) for the very reasonable 75 million over five.
Questionable Offseason Move: Jason Marquis was so bad last year that after only winning 83 games during the regular season, the Cardinals decided that they were better off without him and his 6.02 ERA on the post-season roster, so why, oh why would the Cubs give him a three year 21 million deal?
Bottom Line: The saying goes that where there’s smoke there’s fire and the Cubs certainly sent up a lot of smoke this offseason. Of course, before expectations get too crazy, it’s important to remember that the Cubs have lost a staggering 179 games the past two years. A total only surpassed by the lowly Pirates and improving Rockies. So, needless to say, after a 66-96 season, the Cubs had a lot of holes to fill, only I’m not certain they correctly identified what those holes were. What really made the Cubs terrible last year were walks, their inability to draw them and their propensity to give them. So, they brought in Soriano (again, .325 career OBP), Mark DeRosa (.331), and Cliff Floyd (.359, but .324 last year) to bolster the lineup, and spent 61 million on two pitchers who walked 81 and 75 batters last year. Chicago’s blind ignorance of the effects of walks on the game goes beyond the irritating battle between modern statistical analysis, and old time scouting, it’s just plain short sighted. The Cubs splashiest move was dropping 126 million for Soriano, but its most important might be replacing Dusty Baker with Lou Piniella. The fiery manager flamed out in his last stop, with his hometown Devil Rays, but he does have over 1500 wins in the majors. Whether he’s the right manager for this club remains to be seen, but his presence, along with the benefits of 300 million worth of talent should see the Cubs bounce back towards respectability. Just how high they bounce will depend entirely on whether or not they learn the importance of a free pass given and a free pass taken.

Houston Astros (82-80)

Projected Win Range: 77-81
Best Player: Lance Berkman – The only thing I don’t like about Berkman is that the Astros insist on playing him at first base, which means I can no longer take him for my Rotisserie team (I already have that first baseman from the Cardinals). He hits for average, power, and walks, in short he’s the division’s best hitter not named Albert.
Best Pitcher: Roy Oswalt – With the (assumed) departure of Roger Clemens, Oswalt is all alone atop the Astros pitching chart, which is a fine place for him and his career 3.05 ERA to be.
Best Kid: Hunter Pence – The Astros plan has been to give Pence one more season in the minors to develop, while having Chris Burke hold his seat in centerfield warm, thus allowing Craig Biggio (at Burke’s natural spot) make that historic push for 3,000 hits. Unfortunately, the best of plans are sometimes undone and this one should be, because right now Pence is the best player of the three.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading top pitching prospect Jason Hirsch to the Rockies for Jason Jennings should help the Astros shoulder some of the burden of losing Clemens and Pettitte
Questionable Offseason Move: The Astros had a terrible offence last year and thus spent 100 million to entice Carlos Lee and his big bat to town. The problem is that Lee only fills one spot in the lineup, and that his defense will soon, if not now, negate most of the positives from his bat.
Bottom Line: The Astros are two years removed from their only World Series appearance, but the departures of their flame-throwing Texas twosome makes a repeat appearance incredibly unlikely. In the short term the Jennings deal will help, but the Lee deal makes little sense. In essence, the Astros brought him aboard at the expense of Pettitte, thus sacrificing from their pitching to help their hitting. That’d be fine if their pitching wasn’t also losing Clemens and his ridiculous 2.44 ERA the past three years, and the batting upgrade replaced the anemic bats of Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus, and (I’m sorry to say) Craig Biggio. While Biggio is a very deserving Hall of Fame candidate, each of those three was among the five worst hitters in baseball at their positions last year. And despite the presence of Lee, each of those three will be in the lineup again this year. Everett is probably the best defensive shortstop in baseball, so his presence can be justified, but Ausmus and Biggio are killing the ‘Stros. This is a team that in four years has gone from the Jeff Bagwell – Biggio era to the Clemens-Pettitte one, and is now changing again. How quickly they change will depend on how fast they find improvements for those three weak links in the lineup, but right now they look like less than a .500 team.

Cincinnati Reds (80-82)

Projected Win Range: 72-76
Best Player: Adam Dunn – Don’t look at the batting average or the strikeouts, neither mean as much as you’d think. Look at the walks and home runs, they mean a lot more.
Best Pitcher: Bronson Arroyo – The guitar playing, corn row wearing, right hander is a fly ball pitcher in a park where the ball carries. Seems like a recipe for disaster, but nonetheless, he’s the Reds’ best…
Best Kid: Homer Bailey – Which is why you might see Bailey before too long. Neck and neck with the Yankees Phil Hughes for baseball’s most promising minor league pitcher, Bailey was 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 68 innings.
Impact Offseason Move: Whether he wants to admit it or not, Ken Griffey Jr. is no longer the Kid, and he’s no longer fleet enough to cover the territory in center. This move should have been made two years ago.
Questionable Offseason Move: Repeat after mean, “One Swallow does not a Summer Make.” What does that mean? It means that no matter how good Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo were last year, it was the first time they were that good. And one good year amongst many average ones is what we call and outlier. Basing both of their salaries on outliers is a risky proposition.
Bottom Line: Bailey’s going to be good, and the Reds also have the supremely talented Jay Bruce learning the trade in the minors, unfortunately by the time they’re ready to dominate, Griffey will have a blanket over his lap as he rocks in his rocker (or at best, DHing in Seattle), and the Reds will again look like a two trick-pony. For this year, hopes in Cincinnati are high, unrealistically so, after last year’s 80 win team threatened for the central title. Unfortunately, with what looks like career years from Harang and Arroyo that could be the high tide mark. The big addition to the lineup was Alex Gonzalez who’s overrated (albeit good) with the glove, and terrible with the bat. Yet seemingly the exposure of playing for the Red Sox, no matter how well or poorly, is good for a player’s bank account. Despite only 90 home runs in 3609 at bats and a career OBP of .292, the Reds gave Gonzalez 14 million for three years. It’s a bad investment, one which will be compounded by having re-tread Scott Hatteberg at first, and David Ross behind the plate. Holding off Pittsburgh for the division’s basement will be an accomplishment, maybe not one worth celebrating, but one far more achieveable than winning the division.

Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)

Projected Win Range: 71-75
Best Player: Jason Bay – It pains me to see this Canadian great toiling away for such a sad franchise, at least he has an exciting young hockey team to watch in his spare time.
Best Pitcher: Zach Duke – For Pittsburgh to meet even some modest goals --- say, finishing above .500 for the first time since 1992 --- then Duke will have to go from being a good pitcher on a bad team to the ace he was projected to be.
Best Kid: Andrew McCutchen – The only bad thing about McCuthen, is that he probably wont be ready to help the team until September, by which another season will have slipped away for the Bucs.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading ageing closer Mike Gonzalez for solid first baseman Adam LaRoche is the best trade the Bucs have made since stealing Jason Bay from San Diego.
Questionable Offseason Move: Bringing in re-tread third baseman, and one trick pony Jose Bautista to play third, which moves the slick fielding Freddy Sanchez to second base, where his defense noticeably declines.
Bottom Line: I’ve said this before and (apparently) I’m going to say it again, but the Bucs are moving in the right direction. Really, I swear. They’re just choosing to do so at a snail’s pace. Their pitching, led by the 24 year old Duke is talented, but they’re also inexperienced. Without a top of the rotation stud to take the pressure off the kids, it’s hard for Pittsburgh to break bad momentum and stave off losing streaks. The Pirates think that 2005 first round choice, Brad Lincoln has that star potential, but he’s at least two years away from making his debut and one wonders why the Pirates didn’t select the better regarded (although pricier) Andrew Miller, who made his debut for the Tigers last September and has ace written all over him. While the rotation is young, the lineup is a mix of the good (Bay), the mediocre (Xavier Nady), and the overrated (Jack Wilson). If the Pirates don’t get over their mind numbing desire to bat Wilson second (thus pushing Bay to fifth), they will limit the plate appearances of their lone all star (Bay), costing themselves runs in the process. That’s the challenge for the Bucs this year, figuring out how to stop stunting their own progress, because if some of their young pitchers develop, then they could legitimately compete next summer, but only if they make better decisions with their talent.