Bleeding Green Part Two: Expelling the Truth...

(Editors Note: This was written to follow the last post from Achanceyougottatake Sports, but life, as it sometimes does, got in the way, and the last paragrpah took a while to finish. We appologise and promise better output in March)

What do we know about trading superstars? Going as far back as Wilt Chamberlain or as recently as Shaq, Vince Carter, and Allen Iverson, what do we know? That when you trade a great player you maybe, maybe, get forty cents on the dollar. So why would the Celtics entertain trading Paul Pierce? Well, because in Pierce’s eight year career, the Celtics are 297 – 327, with no 50 win seasons and only one division crown. Is any of this Pierce’s fault? Of course not, he’s been a great player, but even if it’s not his fault, he’s not the solution either. At some point you have to realize that if you cannot build the right pieces around your star, then you need to remove your star from the equation and start over. It’s what Philadelphia realized this year and what we all hope Minnesota will realize before Kevin Garnett’s as old as Greg Oden looks. In Boston’s case, Pierce has valiantly held the ship afloat while the roster turned over from the Antoine Walker era to the Al Jefferson era, but this year marks a serious set back, and if the Celtics are ever to return to their championship glory, perhaps they have to do it without The Truth.

So reasonably, what can the Celtics acquire for Pierce? And, almost as important, what do they need? Well, if they trade Pierce, then the Celtics need a future star. Someone with serious star potential, somebody like one of the top picks in this draft. They also need depth and a point guard. As I mention with any potential trade for a superstar, the first call I make is to Chicago, where the Bulls have expiring contracts, young future all stars, and the Knicks’ lottery pick. There are two different, yet enticing offers that the Bulls could make for Pierce. First, Luol Deng, Thabo Sefolosha, the Knicks’ pick, and the expiring contracts of P.J. Brown and Mike Sweetney, or they could package the pick and Brown with Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas. Both offers give the Celtics three young pieces with which to rebuild, but would the Bulls pull the trigger for Pierce, or are they saving their pieces for a low post presence?

Obviously, either deal with the Bulls holds tremendous appeal, but if they aren’t biting then the Celtics should call Michael Jordan. Not the Bobcats, but Michael in particular. The NBA’s greatest player surely didn’t sign on to be the public face of the Bobcats, only to reside over a starless franchise that cannot win more than 30 games. While the Cats have good young pieces, what they need is a star to push them to that next level. Pierce combined with Emeka Okafor and Adam Morrison probably puts the Bobcats in the playoffs next year. So, as GM of the Celtics, I’d call the Bobcats and ask for a package involving Raymond Felton, Sean May, the Bobcats first round pick, and a lottery protected 2008 pick. If the Cats wanted to “Oden-protect” their pick, then I’d want some clause which saw Okafor substituted for him.

This trade exemplifies the style of play and type of team I’d try rebuilding with. The NBA’s going fast, with the Phoenix Suns leading the charge. The tempo’s increasing, guys are running, teams are trying to maximize scores. This doesn’t mean forgetting about defense, for all their scoring prowess, the Suns are eleventh in the league in defensive efficiency (and they were seventh before Kurt Thomas and Steve Nash went down), but it does mean pushing the pace and attacking the opposing team. Running on misses, working the ball around, making the extra pass, and scoring. Lots and lots of scoring. Pundits wonder whether this style of play can win a championship, but I’m pretty sure that if you asked Celtic great Larry Bird, he’d remember a certain um-tempo Laker attack winning two against his Celtics (who weren’t exactly walking the ball up court themselves) and three more in that decade. Sure, defense has evolved, but great young players can win playing fast, open basketball. That’s why Felton is essential to this deal. He’s not in the class of Chris Paul, or Deron Williams, but he’s certainly in the next tier of great young points. With his incredible speed, he’s tailor made to run a wide open attack. Obviously he’s not the shooter that Nash is (who is?), but in the right offence, he probably opens up the way T.J. Ford opened up for the Raptors this year.

Still, the key to the Charlotte trade is the draft choice. Even if the Celtics don’t receive a top two pick from Charlotte, they position themselves to take two top flight talents from this deep draft. As the Celtics losing streak just hit 18, Boston passed Memphis for the league’s worst record. They now have a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery and can fall no lower than fourth. Charlotte currently sits fourth in the lottery standings, which means they have an 11.9 percent chance of winning the lottery (and thus sending the Celtics Okafor) and a slightly better chance of finishing in the top five. I ran RealGM.com’s lottery simulator ten times, the best result was a one-two finish and the worst a four, six finish. The average finishing spot had the Celtics’ pick in the two hole and the Bobcats’ selection fourth.

It should go without saying that anything can happen on draft day and that the lottery process could see the Celtics screwed and picking fourth and seventh, but for the sake of this exercise, we’re going to assume that the Celtics choose second and fourth and that the first pick is Greg Oden. That makes the second choice easy for the Celtics: Kevin Durant, the eighteen year old who’s averaging 24.9 points and 11.4 rebounds in his first season with Texas. Durant is the key to any up-tempo team. His versatility, basketball IQ, range, and rebounding make him the perfect center piece. Like what Shawn Marion provides the Suns, but with a Kevin Garnett ceiling. The fourth pick is trickier, but involves one of three players: Joakim Noah is known to everyone because of his March heroics from last year, but he doesn’t have the upside of either Wright (not brothers). Freshman Brandan of North Carolina and sophomore Julian of Kansas, would both be first overall picks in drafts without Durant and Oden. All three fit perfectly with the up-tempo, versatile lineup I’m trying to build, so the choice is dependant on who goes third and who fits best. Right now, most people think of Noah as the third pick, but that’s just the result of his name being the most prominent, Brandan’s the most talented and on draft day, I think that pulls more weight with Philadelphia, Memphis, Seattle, or whomever selects third. So, the Celtics, under my esteemed direction, would take Noah. I think Julian could be the better pro, but Noah’s shot blocking and low post passing vision are just too important for this team.

Part of rebuilding with youngsters means finding veterans who can teach the kids how to win. You can ask Jerry Krause what happens if you don’t surround the kids with some balancing experience; call it the Charles Oakley corollary. So, it’s time to wheedle out some youth for some veterans. Not too many. You want to toss the kids against the wall and see who sticks, but you also need the Oakley factor. A veteran who know what’s required of a winning club. The Spurs are an exemplary organization and they have two players who might be available, whom I’d want to bring in for the Oak-factor. Bruce Bowen and Brent Barry are both on the far side of their career, but both have contributed to winning teams and both are professionals. Either would work, but given this team’s need for defense, I’d try to pry Bowen from San Antonio. While he’s no longer the shutdown defender who makes up for his stunted offence by pestering Kobe Bryant into 5-21 nights, Bowen’s still capable of playing eighteen minutes of hard basketball. He’s a good locker room guy, and he’ll work well with the kids. Obviously he’s been an integral piece of what Greg Popovich has built in Texas, but I think this offseason, the Spurs will take a serious look at how they can get younger, to keep pace with the Suns and Mavericks in the West.

There’s no way for the Celtics to make a straight up trade with the Spurs for Bowen, but if he’s included in their previous deal with Charlotte, then a three way trade that sends a re-signed Gerald Wallace to San Antonio, gives them a younger replacement for Bowen. To facilitate, the Celtics include Ryan Gomes with Pierce in their offer to Charlotte. It’s a small token, but the Bobcats have no place for Wallace once Pierce is onboard and Gomes is a useful, energy player off the bench.

I’d still like this team to acquire another two, or three veterans, because right now, as the roster is constructed, it would be too young, but young teams benefit from running, and this team would run, on every possession, all game long. Felton, Rondo and Telfair are each perfect for an up-tmepo attack, Gerald Green, Durant, and Noah would each out pace their respective counterparts, and the positional depth would allow for frequent fresh legs. The team’s power forwards, Al Jefferson and Sean May might not be thoroughbreds in the Amare Stoudemire mold, but they are integral the process. Jefferson and May would not beat their defenders down court, but they’d add an extra dimension to the attack. When the Showtime Lakers were known for sprinting on every possession, the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was not leading the charge, instead he ran down the floor and set himself up in the low block. When the break failed, Magic Johnson merely pulled the ball up and Kareem’s ability made for an easy transition to the half court offence. Jefferson and May are obviously no Kareem’s, but they are both adept at scoring in the low block.

Jefferson also serves as the teams most important trade chip. In the middle of next season, after watching the team develop, Celtics brass could decide that they need more savvy up front, perhaps that would coincide with when the Wolves decide to finally part with Kevin Garnett. A package of Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract, and Charlotte’s 2008 pick would have to make the Wolves listen. Maybe it isn’t enough, but with the Celtics roster depth, they’d have other options to sweeten the deal.

PG – Raymond Felton, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair
SG – Gerald Green, Delonte West, Tony Allen
SF – Kevin Durant, Bruce Bowen, Wally Szczerbiak
PF – Al Jefferson, Sean May, Brian Scalabrine
C – Joakim Noah, Kendrick Perkins, Theo Ratliff

They’re young, just precociously young, but they’re also deep and talented. This team would lose some early battles, but by season’s end they’d be showing the kind of improvement to give hope for 2008 and beyond.