Who'll End Up in Cooperstown.

Today the Hall of Fame will induct eighteen new members into the Cooperstown ranks. This is an abnormally large number, which headlines reliever Bruce Sutter and seventeen deserving players from the Negro Leagues. While most of the Negro Leaguers wont be alive to bask in the recognition they so richly deserve, the ceremonies do offer an appropriate time to glance into the Major Leagues and question the candidacies of those currently playing.

The Locks:

Nine major leaguers could retire tomorrow and be automatic, punch the first ballot Hall of Famers: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, and Ivan Rodriguez. The three names here that people will dispute are Glavine, Bonds, and ARod. So those are the only ones I’ll comment on.

Those who question Glavine haven’t taken the time to look at the numbers. When Maddux passed 300 wins, people claimed it was the last time we’d see that number breached, but after a resurgent season with the Mets Glavine is now within 14 wins of three hundred. He will get there, but even if he doesn’t with two Cy Youngs, a World Series MVP, five 20 win seasons, a .600 winning percentage, and a Hall of Fame monitor (compiled by Baseball Reference, with 100 equaling a likely HoF) of 157, Glavine is a lock. Go to Baseball Reference and look at what he accomplished for the Braves, he was --- and seemingly still is --- very, very good.

Bonds and Rodriguez are both obvious Hall of Famers whose candidacies are being questioned, Bonds for steroids and ARod because he signed the largest contract in sporting history and isn’t Derek Jeter (although he’s better). Ok, Bonds is really very easy. Over the last five he was, steroids or no, the best hitter ever. A better five year run than Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, or even Babe Ruth ever produced. So most voters will justify his inclusion upon that alone. Those who are bothered by the steroids --- and you’d have to be incredibly naïve at this point to believe he didn’t knowingly use them --- will justify Bonds’ inclusion, by the reality that he would have been a HoF if he’d retired after the 2000 season, or before his head started dwarfing sun light in nearby communities. ARod is frustrating, because I never used to be one of his supporters. For whatever reason, I just wasn’t a fan, but I respected him. These days I feel as though I am defending him in every other column; ten days ago, in one swing, ARod hit his 2000th hit and 450th home run. He’s the youngest ever to 450, has two MVPs, a batting title, a Gold Glove, a career .307 batting average and .962 OPS. He’s played enough seasons to qualify --- with a ridiculous HoF monitor of 250. Yes, 40,000 New Yorkers booing him with every non beer swallowed breath, seems to be enticing him to throw worse than guys on my beer league softball team. And yes, right now I don’t see his time in New York ending well, but this wont stop his plaque being enshrined in Cooperstown. New Yorkers, you are watching one of the greatest players of all time, accept it, put your hands slowly together palm to palm and your team will actually benefit.

These next five are Hall of Famers and will get in, possibly not on the first ballot, but eventually: Ken Griffey Jr (with Bonds, the best player of the 1990s; will retire with over 600 home runs; shame injuries drained his iconic status), Manny Ramirez (flakey, but just an awesome, awesome hitter for over eleven years --- probably will retire with more RBIs than anyone except Hank Aaron and Ruth), Craig Biggio (despite what Cub fans think, better than Ryne Sandberg, possibly an all time top five second baseman, probably passes 3000 hits to cement the issue), and Frank Thomas (hard to remember after his past few injury plagued seasons, but he dominated the early nineties, with five straight years of an OPS over 1.000 and two MVPs), Mariano Rivera (simply put, the best reliever of all time, dominating, most relievers it’s an uphill battle, but he’s a lock, quite possibly on the first try).

In Their Prime and Getting Close:

Four guys are carving out the path and are within five seasons of punching their ballots:

Vladimir Guerrero – Probably needs five more good years, but likely retires with more than 2500 hits and 500 home runs. He was completely unknown in Montreal, he destroyed pitchers, swinging at anything even near the strike zone and hitting it hard. Finally was recognized upon arriving in Anaheim and still making pitchers pay for bad pitches on or off the plate.

Andrew Jones – will be a unique player in the Hall; never developed the plate discipline which is expected of great players, but his combination of power and phenomenal defense will see him enshrined. Only 29, some projections have him topping 600 home runs.

Jim Thome – Ok, big Jim doesn’t really count as in his prime, but he is closing in on the Hall, but isn’t quite there yet. He will pass five hundred home runs sometime early next year, and while the steroid era has eroded the importance of that benchmark, when looked at in combination of his career .975 OPS and 1500 RBIs he will be enshrined.

Derek Jeter – I almost put Jeter in the lock category. If some beauty came along and persuaded Jeter to leave baseball and join her in populating a desert island with Amazonian children, would the voters select him to the hall? Honestly, I think given the whole Yankee captain, four World Series, 8 division titles persona they actually would, but another five or six years will mean that his career numbers match his team accomplishments. He just passed 2,000 hits and 3,000 seems well within reach. Some --- myself included --- have wondered whether he’ll make a run at 4,000. That would require playing well into his 40s, but either way, he’ll eventually be enshrined in the Hall.

Ichiro Suzuki – A very interesting case study. When his time comes, will voters count his impressive body of work from Japan? His total numbers in America will never match most of Canton, he just came too late. But he has produced at an unparalleled rate and another five years will give him the requisite number of years in MLB and I think that the voters give him the benefit of the doubt that he’d have reached 3,000 hits.

Nearing the End, Sitting On the Fence:

These seven guys are within shouting distance of the end and can best be described as fence sitters.

Chipper Jones – For every analyst I hear who says that Chipper is a lock, I hear another two who say it’ll be a dog fight. He’s 33 years old, has an MVP award and solid career numbers across the board (.303, .401, .538); however, there’s nothing in his numbers which stand out. In the era of the Home Run, Chipper wont hit 500, nor will he top 3000 hits. His supporters argue that he played the majority of his career at third, where his numbers compare to George Brett. Brett played more games at third than Chipper, but Chipper has been the more productive offensive player. Of course, Chipper played in the power era, while Brett played in the hit and run era. I think he sits on the sideline for a long time, but eventually gets nomination.

Todd Helton – Entering the season, his career batting average was .337, 22nd all time. That would suggest a hall of famer. Of course, he’ll be judged for playing all those years in Colorado where the ball flew a little too far. Also, with the Colorado factor and the fact that he played first base in the late nineties, early millennium his home run numbers aren’t very impressive. He has two seasons with 40+, but has suddenly become a 20 HR hitter. The next five years will show all, if he regains some of his power while maintaining his average, then his career will be comparable to future Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, but if he continues to knock only 20 a year (he’s on pace for 19 this year) then his career will be comparable to close but no cigar Don Mattingly. At which point, it will depend on how high his average remains. If I were hedging my bets, something tells me that Helton is on the decline and that his numbers (with the Coors Field Factor) fall short of the Hall.

Jeff Kent – I always like former Jays, especially ones who were in some way involved in their championship years (even if it was only to be traded away at the deadline for a Cone-headed pitcher). Kent presents a unique case, in that he wasn’t truly great until his 30s. It was only in his thirties that he started consistently mashing the ball. This includes his MVP in 2000, which helps his case; as does being the all time HR leader at second. He certainly has been a very productive second baseman in his thirties, but for his era remains third behind Biggio and Roberto Alomar, who both were far superior with the glove and better (for longer) with the bat. He’s 38 and sitting on the fence. This season he’s been injured and only knocked 9 home runs, so it’s hard to say how long he can hold on, but it seems like he’ll struggle to top 375 HRs. It helps to hold the record at second, but with Biggio and Alomar being better, I think Kent’s fight is uphill and I doubt he reaches the numbers he needs.

John Smoltz – Another Brave, in Smoltz’s case the player against whom he’ll be compared is obviously Dennis Eckersley. Eck retired just shy of 200 wins (197), which Smoltz is now within shouting distance of (184). Of course, Eck is widely regarded as the second best closer of all time and has 234 more saves than Smoltz. Smoltz however has a giant post season reputation, so I’d wager that 200 is going to be the big number for him. If he passes 200 wins, then the voters give Smoltz credit for his three very good years as a closer and for his sterling 15-4, 2.66 career postseason record.

Curt Schilling – Another player with a great postseason record. The big rightie has no Cy Youngs, he only just topped 200 wins, and he has a career ERA of 3.40. But he also has a World Series Co-MVP and he accomplished something that no star Boston pitcher has accomplished since Babe Ruth, he won the World Series with the Red Sox. His overall numbers are a little shy, but enough people (I didn’t say everyone and I didn’t even say me, but enough people) feel that if you needed one victory and could choose from anyone who pitched in the nineties or new millennium, you’d take Schilling. Over Randy, Clemens, Maddux, and Pedro. In games that really matter, that’s how good he’s been over his career. He was the ace of a Phillies team that went to the World Series in 1993, the ace of a Diamondbacks team that won in 2001 and the ace of that prodigal Red Sox team in 2004. I think that all of that adds up to trump the numbers and Schilling joins his bloody sock in Cooperstown.

Mike Mussina – The knocks against Mussina are twofold: No 20 win season, no Cy Young. Lets be clear, both of these are absurd. Mussina finished in the top 5 of Cy voting six times (with two other 6th place finishes). Wins? Seventeen – twice, eighteen – three times, nineteen – twice; in 1994 he won 16 games in 24 starts before the season was swallowed by the bloated throat of greed. So, holding not winning 20 against him is arbitrary and ridiculous. His career win totals are 236 going into tonight’s start. In this day and age, he will pitch until he’s over 40, so I foresee another 35 wins in his future. 300 and an automatic spot are too far away, but 270 is possible. Yes he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, but for two decades he’s been one of the best and that combination of being very good for so long will see him enshrined, not the first time his name comes up, but the second or third.

Trevor Hoffman – Hoffman will retire as the all time saves leader, but Lee Smith will tell you that “that and a paid admission will get you entrance into the Hall of Fame.” Two things hurt Hoffman, first he’s played his entire career in San Diego, which has provided him precious little time in the limelight. Second, while he will hold the all time save record when he retires, he’ll almost certainly be passed by Rivera before his time for election into the Hall of Fame comes up. Then I believe Hoffman will join Goose Gossage and Smith as relievers fighting an uphill battle to get recognition.

Great Career, but Not Quite:

Gary Sheffield has been a very good player. Actually, he’s been a great player, but I think he becomes this generation’s Jim Rice. Sheffield will almost certainly pass 2500 hits and 500 home runs, which a decade ago would have guaranteed enshrinement, but the steroid era will alter the requirements and Sheffield who admitted (“unknowingly”) using steroids and who has been (at best) cantankerous to the public will be left on the outside looking in. Carlos Delgado has put up great numbers, but in this era they aren’t great enough. Jim Edmonds combined gold glove defense with 30 HR power, but he just didn’t do it long enough. Johnny Damon has been idolized and reviled, but unless he adds another 1200 hits then the man who “looks like Jesus, acts like Judas, and throws like Mary” will be left coiffing hair ointment outside the Hall. Given the idolization of the Yankees, it would never really surprise me to see Bernie Williams elected. Of course, while Williams was great and perhaps the second most important player on those four Yankee championship teams, his career numbers don’t add up to Cooperstown. The same can be said for David Wells, Andy Pettitte, and Jamie Moyer. Very good, occasionally great, but like Mussina, their great years weren’t frequent enough and unlike Mussina, their longevity isn’t enough to push them through.

Great Start, talk to me in a Decade (Min. Five Years):

Obviously the top of this list is Albert Pujols, no explanation necessary. Johan Santana and Roy Halladay are Cy Young winners who are early in what might be Hall of Fame pitching careers. Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano don’t have that hardware, but they could win it in any given year. It might surprise most casual observers who only see his strikeouts, but Adam Dunn is projected to hit 600 home runs, with a .400 OBP. His case will be extremely unique, but interesting nonetheless. Michael Young and Miguel Tejada are some of the best hitters ever at shortstop, of course they also are some of the worst fielders at a position in which defense is most important, like Paul Molitor it might depend how much they pad their stats as DHs.

Finally, I want to mention Nomar Garciaparra who at this point will not come close to the Hall, but would have been a surefire candidate had injuries not shafted him. Look at what he accomplished in 1999 (.357, .418, .603) and 2000 (.372, .434, .599). Those were at ages 25 and 26, the next year he injured his wrist, and since, even when he’s been healthy he hasn’t been the same. Shame, because I always liked Nomar.