Can a Season Be Lost With Two Bad Innings?

Two bad innings was all it took to produce two bad losses, two bad innings. And lets be clear about things, two losses to the Texas Rangers, at home no less, in late July just cannot be acceptable to a team attempting to catch (and more importantly pass) the New York Yankees and either the Chicago White Sox or Boston Red Sox. While four upcoming games against the Yanks will present the opportunity to gain some ground on them, catching the pair of Sox is seeming less and less likely by the day. Before the two losses, the Jays were 3.5 back of Boston and 5.5 back of the White Sox. Two wins leave them status quo with Boston and 4.5 back of the Sox, instead they’re 5.5 and 6.5 back respectively. Insurmountable, well no, but certainly daunting. When looking at a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs, it isn’t just enough to look at how many games they’re back, you must also consider how many teams they must leapfrog to land in the promised land. It isn’t enough at this point for the Jays to string together a bunch of wins, they need one of those striped Sox to start losing AND they need that perennial playoff team from New York to start losing (and, because of those two bad innings, if they want to win the Wild Card, they also need the Minnesota Twins to start losing). All three teams going on a losing streak… possible? Sure, probable? No.

So, where did things go wrong? Going into this series against Texas, the last two games looked ominous, as the Jays were sending Casey Jansen (he of the 6.46 ERA since June 1st) and Shawn Marcum (in his first major league start) to the mound. Yet both pitched remarkably well and both kept the Jays in the game (Marcum actually left with the lead and had Jansen been lifted after the 6th he too would have), but the Jays laid two eggs allowing the Rangers to post a 5 run 8th on Tuesday and a four run 7th on Wednesday. The blame can be laid at the feet of so many, John Gibbons for questionable managerial choices, Justin Speier for his two run debacle on Tuesday and for allowing the game winning two run double (both of which were tagged to the departed Jansen) on Wednesday, the infield defense for what has become routine botches of simple plays, and lastly the listless hitters who, with the exception of a nine run outpouring on Monday, scored 7 runs in 3 games. Seven runs in 26 innings isn’t exactly what one would expect from their supposedly high powered offence, is it? You could argue that the Jays were without Troy Glaus, Alex Rios, and Shea Hillenbrand, but that still leaves Reed Johnson, Frank Cattalanotto, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina, and the smoldering Aaron Hill. And of course, after his curse laden tirade Wednesday, Hillenbrand wont be returning to the Jays.

GM J.P. Ricciardi will likely find a trading partner in the next ten days for the right handed hitter, but if in May ---- when he was hitting .340 --- the best Hillenbrand could wield was the washed up Adam Kennedy, then I’m not entirely sure what hope there is that J.P. can get anything to help the ball club over the final two months. Whoever you believe in this sordid affair, and thus far I am content to sit on the fence, it is bad for the team; bad for morale, bad for their lineup, bad for their prospects. Given the Jays’ trouble this season at shortstop, I’d be asking the Angels about Erick Aybar. Aybar is one of the top rated shortstops in the minors (most expect him to be ready to start next season), but his path to the majors in Anaheim is blocked by current shortstop Orlando Cabrera and super prospect Brandon Wood. Hillenbrand likely isn’t enough to tempt Anaheim to part with Aybar, but it’d be worth a call.

Other than Shea, the Jays don’t have much to work with when seeking upgrades for this season. There are no major league ready prospects in their system, nobody to tempt someone into to trading them relief help. August should see the return of Alex Rios and Gustavo Chacin, but neither can be considered locks to perform. While Chacin’s record was inflated by the Jays early season power exploits, his pitching was actually quite poor, and Rios --- seen taking cuts yesterday --- looks fifteen pounds lighter than before that errant foul ball led to a staph infection. So, should the Jays forget about this season, trade Ted Lilly, Frank Cattalanotto, and Bengie Molina? Difficult question really. The one thing the Jays have working for them is the schedule. Over the next two months, the Jays play each of the teams they are chasing (most notably the Yanks, against whom the have 13 remaining games), so the possibility remains to earn meaningful results against their competitors. Of course, therein also lies the rub, the Jays have four series against the Yanks, two each with the Red Sox and Oakland, one with Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, and Anaheim. That might be the hardest remaining schedule in baseball. Sure there are still games against lemmings (Baltimore and KC), but there are also series against Seattle, Cleveland and Tampa Bay all of whom look like lemmings based upon their record, but are playing good baseball and cannot be discounted (and no, it wasn’t an error that Tampa was included there). Their next eleven games should be telling, if the Jays finish the month with anything less than an 8-3 record against New York, Seattle and Oakland, then J.P. should spend July 31st burning up the phone lines. While I’d hate to see them concede, the Jays desperately need to replenish their farm system to compete in future seasons, something which can only be accomplished by relinquishing current assets.