Thursday, March 29, 2007

2007 American League Central Preview:

Top to (not quite) bottom, there is no better division in baseball than the American League Central. You have the premier pitcher (Johan Santana), one of the two best closers (Joe Nathan), the best catcher (Joe Mauer), and the 2006 AL MVP (Justin Morneau). And that’s only from one team. You also have baseball’s best young player (Grady Sizemore), arguably its best hitter (Travis Hafner), young flamethrowers (Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya), and even the top minor league prospect (Alex Gordon). Yet, despite all that talent, the real stars of the division might be the guys who assembled all that talent. While Oakland GM Billy Beane draws all the press (much of it deserved), the Central boasts a quartet of highly accomplished GM’s who are at the top of their game. The least accomplished of the group, Mark Shapiro, has rebuilt the Indians, while slashing the bloated payroll from 92 million the year before he took over, to an estimated 58 million this year. The dividends on the field have thus far been mixed, but nobody can question his eye for young talent, as evidenced by his acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner, and Grady Sizemore. Likewise, nobody can question the results of Chicago gunslinger, Kenny Williams, who unlike most GMs is proactive and aggressive in acquiring talent. His bold moves (including standing by controversial manager Ozzie Guillen) were validated with a World Series win in 2005. Dave Dombrowski also has a World Series win on his resume, the 1997 title with the Marlins, and he deserves ample credit for starting the rebuilding that led to the Marlins’ 2003 title. But his greatest feat was taking over a 119 loss team and building an AL champion in three years. When he gave ageing hall of fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez and injury prone slugger Magglio Ordonez massive contracts, the baseball world scoffed that Dombrowski was just continuing to bog down a terrible franchise. Instead, Dombrowski understood that Detroit had been so terrible for so long (and especially in 2003), that he needed to overpay just to perk guys’ interest. It worked and in 2006 Detroit reappeared on the baseball map in a big way. They might even have won their first division title in 18 years, if not for the fourth, and perhaps best, man in this quartet: Minnesota’s Terry Ryan. While Ryan lacks the big jewel encrusted ring that Williams and Dombrowski wear, his work is beyond reproach. While operating in a place where free agents do not generally sign, and never operating with a payroll above 63 million, Ryan has managed to keep his team competitive by drafting and developing players better than anyone in baseball (Santana, Mauer, Morneau were all homegrown talents), and augmenting those talents with savvy trades (savvy might be an understatement for sending A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, and Joe Nathan).

To this acclaimed group comes youngster Dayton Moore. KC is Moore’s first job as the top dog, but he apprenticed for 12 years under Atlanta’s John Schuerholz (who might know a trick or two). Whether or not, Kansas City’s new GM is able to live up to the standard set by his central division rivals will go a long way towards determining whether KC can climb out of the basement of baseball’s top division.


Cleveland Indians (78-84 Last year)
Projected Win Range: 90-94
Best Player: Grady Sizemore – He’s a phenomenal talent and this year the world will notice how good he is.
Best Pitcher: C.C. Sabithia – The big leftie is a serious power pitcher, who has 81 career wins at the tender age of 26.
Best Kid: Adam Miller – Like most young pitchers, Miller will probably start the season in AAA, polishing his game, while the big club awaits the inevitable in season injury (or talent depreciation). With four above average pitches, the right hander should be well equipped when he does arrive.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading minor league third base prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff to the Padres for young hotshot second baseman Josh Barfield.
Questionable Offseason Move: Separately, I liked the acquisition of David Dellucci and Trot Nixon, but why spend 14.5 million on two identical players? It’s not the worst decision, but for a team with a 60 odd million payroll, every penny counts.
Bottom Line: The Indians were one of baseball’s surprise teams in 2005, winning 93 games and having a chance to make the postseason until a disastrous final weekend sweep. Last year the sweep seemingly carried over as the Indians fell back to a disappointing 78 wins. So predicting them to win 90 games might seem like a bold proclamation, except for two things. In 2005 the Indians were an extremely talented young team that improved beyond expectations, whenever a young team achieves such success one season, it is almost always followed by a disappointing depreciation the next. It’s natural, common, and never an indicator that a young team isn’t actually very talented. The second, which also supports that theory, is that the Indians had a superb run differential last season. Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage projected them to have a record of 89-73, while that might seem to be entirely arbitrary, it’s not. What it actually shows, is that the Indians were incredibly unlucky last year, and that with better they would have been an 89 win team. From that vantage point, seeing them jump to 91 or 92 wins isn’t so difficult.

Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Carlos Guillen – As good as Jim Leyland was last year, he made some confounding lineup decisions, the most egregious of which (well, besides any time he used Neifi Perez in the two hole) was batting Guillen fifth. Guillen is the team’s best hitter and should have hit third last year.
Best Pitcher: Justin Verlander – Don’t expect him to go win 17 games again, but Verlander’s stuff is dynamite and his mound composure cocksure. Only injury will hold him back from being a top ten pitcher for the next decade.
Best Kid: Cameron Maybin – He’s only nineteen, so he might be another year away, but Maybin’s very good and with a strong season, might force his way into Detroit’s lineup for September’s pennant race.
Impact Offseason Move: Giving up young pitching is never easy, but Dombrowski knew that his clubs offensive success last season was a bit fortunate (heavy with home runs, short with walks), bringing in Gary Sheffield and his .395 career OBP should help give raise the offence.
Questionable Offseason Move: Sean Casey provides so little offensively at this point, that unless he’s giving pre-game rub downs I question whether his clubhouse value negates the fact that he had a .650 OPS last year.
Bottom Line: Tigers fans are a aflutter and any time somebody suggests that they aren’t locks to win the division, they get all frenetic and testy. Calm down lads, it’ll all be ok, but… your team probably wont win the division. First off, your pitching was great last year, but Kenny Rogers is 400 years old and without palm enhancing products probably doesn’t win 17 games again. Likewise, Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robinson all enjoyed long healthy seasons, which one hopes they will again, but… Teams rarely have four-fifths of their pitching staff predominantly healthy for two straight years. Offensively, Sheffield will help, as will the return of Placido Polanco, but Pudge will be a little worse, Casey’s an albatross and Craig Monroe’s numbers probably depreciate. So, another playoff appearance might not be forthcoming, but Detroit still has plenty to cheer about. Dombrowski has stocked the pipelines with guys like Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Jordan Tata, each of whom should be helping the big club by 2008. After years of being irrelevant, Tigers’ fans should be happy that their team is set to contend for the rest of the decade, without caring whether they’re being picked to win this year.

Minnesota Twins (96-66)
Projected Win Range: 87-91
Best Player: Joe Mauer – The AL MVP wasn’t even the MVP of his own team. Not that I’m complaining about the award coming with Justin Morneau to Vancouver, but… Nobody’s as valuable and unique as Mauer. His exceptional work behind the plate and at the plate put him in a league of his own.
Best Pitcher: Johan Santana – He should be the three time defending Cy Young champ, but the voters are overly swayed by wins, so instead Santana will have to settle for being the defending champ, and the proverbial “best pitcher in baseball.”
Best Kid: Matt Garza – Don’t expect Liriano-like first year production from the kid, but Garza is a better pitcher than Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Carlos Silva.
Impact Offseason Move: Inking Mauer for four years takes the cake.
Questionable Offseason Move: Last year the Twins entered the season giving jobs to washed up veterans, over the kids. After a 17-24 start, the veterans were scraped near the end of May. The Twins went 78-40 after letting the kids play. So this offseason, why would they make the same questionable decision for their pitching staff? Ponson? Ortiz? Why not Garza and Glenn Perkins?
Bottom Line: Like Ryan, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire is incredibly underrated. Those four division titles have all come with Gardenhire at the helm. In five years he’s yet to finish below .500. With that track record, it’s risky to bet against the Twins, but… I cannot cast a vote with Ponson, Silva, and Ortiz. Their lineup deep and solid, but don’t hold your breathe waiting for Mauer to win the batting title again, or for Morneau to win the MVP. It’s a regression towards the mean thing, which doesn’t mean they aren’t exceptional players, who’ll have good years, but even ARod occasionally has an off year. For the Twins offence to be as good as last year, DH Jason Kubel must finally put together the talents that have made him a Rob Neyer favorite for three years now, and veterans Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo must maintain their production. Still, for Ryan and Gardenhire’s team to win their fifth division title in six years, the Twins will need three pitchers to step up behind perennial great Johan Santana. Boof Bonser and the two kids above combining for 85 effective starts would make the Twins extremely formidable, but that might be too much to ask in 2007.

Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Projected Win Range: 81-85
Best Player: Jermaine Dye – This also might be Paul Konerko or it might be Jim Thome, but I can tell you for certain it isn’t Scott Podsednik or Darin Erstad.
Best Pitcher: Mark Buehrle – Last year was a difficult one for Buerhle, and as he enters his walk year, will we see a return to the effective groundball inducing pitcher of the past, or was last year the begining of the end?
Best Kid: John Danks – Rumor has it that the 21 year old right hander made the Sox’s rotation as the fifth starter…
Impact Offseason Move: … If that’s true then GM Kenny Williams shipping Brandon McCarthy to Texas for Danks will rank as another notch on his already holey belt.
Questionable Offseason Move: Darin Erstad is not, I repeat not, the answer in centerfield. I don’t care how tough he is, that he was the punter for his college football team, or that he’s “plucky” (read: short and white), an outfield with both him and Podsednik will be one of the worst in baseball.
Bottom Line: Kenny Williams is very astute, he has the cahones to gamble and make moves while other GMs wait and hope for the perfect deal to fall in their lap. Having said that, if the White Sox go into the season with Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad hitting at the top of the lineup, they will lose, a lot. Podsednik had a .680 OPS last summer, and an anemic .330 on base percentage. I don’t care how fast and gritty he is, those numbers are terrible. And Erstad, whom the Angels championed for years because of his “punter persona”? Well, Erstad had a scintillating .276 on base percentage. Do you know what that means? That means that when Jim Thome and his massive bat walks into the batters box this Summer, he’ll do so with two outs and nobody on base. The Sox have one of the best 3-4-5’s in baseball, but if they’re always at the plate with two outs, the damage that Thome, Konerko, and Dye can do will be limited. Ultimately, the Sox’s season will depend on how many runs they can score, because their pitching staff has gone from blindingly good in 2005, to good in 2006, to solid this year. If Williams cannot acquire better hitters at the top of the lineup, then the Sox will resemble a .500 team more than the Champions they so recently were.

Kansas City Royals (62-100)
Projected Win Range: 65-69
Best Player: Alex Gordon – Baseball America’s minor league player of the year will be the Royals’ best player the second he steps on the field. He’s not just compared to George Brett because he’s a third baseman, it’s because he blends a wide array of skills, with a subtle undertanding of the game.
Best Pitcher: Gil Meche – Ouch…
Best Kid: Billy Butler – For now the Royals continue to pretend that Butler is an outfielder, but when Mike Sweeny suffers his inevitable injury, then Butler will jump from AAA to the big club. Once there, Butler will do what he does, hit, hit, and hit some more.
Impact Offseason Move: Hiring the forty year old Moore is the best move owner David Glass has made in, well, uhmmm… ever.
Questionable Offseason Move: Maybe signing Gil Meche to a five year 55 million deal is Moore’s “Dombrowski signing Pudge” move. Maybe Meche pitches well, the Royals get better, and players realize it’s ok to sign in Kansas City… or maybe he’s paying 11 million a year to a borderline fourth starter?
Bottom Line: The Royals will be better this year, but since they lost a 100 games last summer, that doesn’t really say much. Gordon’s a stud, a guy who can be a hall of famer if injuries don’t curtail him. Butler will be up soon enough and he’ll hit and Mark Teahen had a break out year in 2006. But the holes in the lineup are still massive. Angel Berroa might be the worst player in baseball. First baseman Ryan Shealy has a whopping 9 career home runs, and since he was born before me, he can’t exactly be considered a kid any longer, and catcher Jason LaRue had a .317 OBP for Cincinnati last year. Worse yet, the Royals pitching is hard to predict, and in a “who’s actually going to pitch for them” bad way, not a “there’s a chance they could be good” way. Obviously Meche is pegged in as the ace, but after him it’s a hodgepodge of castoffs (Odalis Perez, Jorge De La Rosa) and question marks (Zach Greinke, who missed all but six starts last year with clinical depression). Gordon, Butler, and 2006 top pick Luke Hochevar represent hope, as does the hiring of Moore to steer the ship, but right now 70 wins looks like a best case scenario.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

2007 National League Central Preview:

The National League central is a study in contrasts, on the one hand the division has seemingly dominated the National League over the past three years, representing the senior circuit in the World Series each time, and winning last fall. On the other hand, that championship team, the St. Louis Cardinals, won the division with a paltry 83 victories. So what is the Central? Dominant? Or mediocre? Or, can it actually be both? In reality, baseball is a very fluid thing, three years ago the central was easily the best division in the National League, with the Cardinals winning an MLB best 105 games and the Astros following that up with a Wild Card worthy 92. The next year both team regressed a little, dropping to 100 and 89 wins, but as the entire League descended into mediocrity, the 89 wins were again enough for Houston to win the Wild Card. And once in the tournament, well, as the saying goes, “momentum’s all about who’s on the mound for you tomorrow.” Houston was able to parlay their 89 wins into the National League title based on the superb pitching performances of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt. The same followed last year, when the Cardinals regressed in spectacular fashion, from 100 wins to 83, but managed to get enough (surprisingly) strong outings from Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Anthony Reyes to upset the heavily favored Tigers in the Series. So the truth, whether those stalwart fans in middle America want to admit it, is that the division, so strong three years ago, now stinks. The mighty Cards did little this offseason to upgrade their talent, while Houston clearly took a big step back with the departures of Pettitte and (presumably) Clemens.

Ironically, the Central was the baseball’s most egregious spenders in a winter of ridiculous spending, but with the exception of a massive contract from Houston for Calros Lee (see below), the spending was all centralized to one quiet, Midwest city. After watching their World Series drought stretch past the century mark (see, that’s why I love baseball, in no other sport is there the possibility of a team having a 100 year championship drought, especially a franchise with as much tradition as the Cubs), not too mention watching their cross town rivals celebrate, the Cubs decided it was time to get serious. So they dipped into parent company Tribune’s piggy-bank and went spending. There was 126 million for a leadoff hitter with a career .325 OBP, there was 40 million for a starting pitcher who posted a 4.31 ERA last year, heck, there was even a couple million to extend the misery that has been the Kerry Wood era. So despite spending almost 500 million dollars (admittedly, more than 300 of that was the Cubbies), it’s hard to see how the National League Central improved itself. Sure, the division wont be won by a team with only 83 wins again, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be good either.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)


Projected Win Range: 85-89
Best Player: Albert Pujols – Well, duh…
Best Pitcher: Chris Carpenter – I’m sorry, really, but watching the remarkable post injury success of Carpenter makes it hard for this die-hard Jays’ fan to sleep at night.
Best Kid: Adam Wainwright – It might be hard for Wainwright have a bigger impact than last year, when he used his sublime curve ball to embarrass some of baseball’s best hitters in the ninth inning of the NLCS and World Series, but a move to the rotation as the Cards number two pitcher will give him the opportunity.
Impact Offseason Move: Not giving massive contracts to Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, both of whom were hopping to cash in on their good playoff showings.
Questionable Offseason Move: I like Adam Kennedy, but the Angels realized after their 2002 World Series that they couldn’t win another with a Kennedy-David Eckstein infield, so why are the Cardinals trying to do the same in 2007?
Bottom Line: St. Louis will be better than last year, but they’ll also be worse. Which is a convoluted way of saying they’ll win more than 83 games, but not the World Series. Their rotation has been overhauled, only Carpenter remains from last year’s Opening Day starters. They aren’t as strong as the five-some that helped the ’04 Cards win 105 games, but Wainwright, Reyes, Kip Wells, and Braden Looper do offer an upgrade over Suppan, Jason Marquis, Sidney Ponson, and the shell of Mark Mulder. Offensively, the Cardinals are marginally worse than last year, if only because second year man Chris Duncan is priemd for something of a sophmore slump, while the 36 year old Jim Edmonds and 32 year old Scott Rolen will continue their decline. Still, I think that the Cardinals will hold off the surprising Brewers in the Central, because they have one thing nobody else in the division has: Albert Pujols.

Milwaukee Brewers (75-87)


Projected Win Range: 83-87
Best Player: Bill Hall – Prince Fielder is the bigger presence (literally) and name (figuratively), but Hall virtually symbolizes the entire Brewers team, because nobody’s ever really heard of him, but he’s better than you think. Converted from third to short last year when starting shortstop J. J. Hardy was lost for the year, Hall will now fill the Brewers gap in center. Combine that selfless versatility with 35 home runs and a .898 OPS and you can see why the Brew Crew are high on Hall.
Best Pitcher: Ben Sheets – It isn’t a stretch to say (again) that the Brewers hopes are largely dependent on getting 32 starts from the dominating Sheets.
Best Kid: Yovani Gallardo – Baseball America’s third highest rated minor league pitcher (after the Yankees’ Phil Hughes and the Reds’ Homer Bailey), Gallardo projects as a front line starter and should be helping this squad by mid summer, if not sooner.
Impact Offseason Move: The trade that sent extra starter Doug Davis to Arizona for former all star catcher Johnny Estrada will provide an upgrade behind the plate in America’s beer capital.
Questionable Offseason Move: 42 million is a lot of money for a 32 year old pitcher who’s only had one season with a sub-four ERA.
Bottom Line: I was quite bullish on the Brewers last year, selecting them as my surprise Wild Card team, and while they failed to have a winning record for the 14th straight season, I remain quite high on them. With third base prospect Ryan Braun almost ready to take over the hot corner, the Brewers are about to possess Baseball’s best young infield. With the bigger than life Fielder at first, Rickie Weeks at second, Hardy at short, and Braun at third, the Brewers will have four infielders with all star potential, none of whom has yet turned 25. Yet, it might be another year before the Brewers take the central by storm. Braun will begin the year in AAA to iron out the quirks in his defense, and their pitching staff is one great starter away from surviving the inevitable Ben Sheets injury. That starter is, of course, already in their system, but whether or not Gallardo’s ready is another question. If the Brewers are to make a Detroit-like run from forgotten team to division champ, then they will need Gallardo to make like Justin Verlander and skip the acclimatizing yourself to the majors’ step and go straight to dominating. More likely he takes a few months to figure things out and the Brewers take another year before finishing on top, but either way I expect them to keep the Cardinals on their toes all summer, and finally finish above the .500 mark.

Chicago Cubs (66-96)


Projected Win Range: 78-82
Best Player: Derek Lee – Or maybe it’s actually Alfonso Soriano, but only if he hits like he did last year, not the two before that. Lee, when healthy, is the solid stud around which the wild Wriggly winds blow. He keeps the team grounded.
Best Pitcher: Carlos Zambrano – Last year everyone finally realized that despite the hype bestowed upon Wood and Mark Prior, Zambrano is actually the best pitcher in Chicago. The Cubs had better not have emptied their piggy bank this year, because Zambrano’s about to become a free agent and he’s going to cost quite a bit more than a pretty penny.
Best Kid: Felix Pie – After impeding the potential of former top centerfield prospect Corey Patterson, the Cubs intend to be patient with the talented Pie. Unfortunately for them, Soriano doesn’t look like much of a centerfielder and they may need Pie’s defense now, even if his bat isn’t quite ready.
Impact Offseason Move: Given the money dropped on guys this offseason, how can you not LOVE the Cubs retaining all star third baseman Aramis Ramirez (and his .912 OPS) for the very reasonable 75 million over five.
Questionable Offseason Move: Jason Marquis was so bad last year that after only winning 83 games during the regular season, the Cardinals decided that they were better off without him and his 6.02 ERA on the post-season roster, so why, oh why would the Cubs give him a three year 21 million deal?
Bottom Line: The saying goes that where there’s smoke there’s fire and the Cubs certainly sent up a lot of smoke this offseason. Of course, before expectations get too crazy, it’s important to remember that the Cubs have lost a staggering 179 games the past two years. A total only surpassed by the lowly Pirates and improving Rockies. So, needless to say, after a 66-96 season, the Cubs had a lot of holes to fill, only I’m not certain they correctly identified what those holes were. What really made the Cubs terrible last year were walks, their inability to draw them and their propensity to give them. So, they brought in Soriano (again, .325 career OBP), Mark DeRosa (.331), and Cliff Floyd (.359, but .324 last year) to bolster the lineup, and spent 61 million on two pitchers who walked 81 and 75 batters last year. Chicago’s blind ignorance of the effects of walks on the game goes beyond the irritating battle between modern statistical analysis, and old time scouting, it’s just plain short sighted. The Cubs splashiest move was dropping 126 million for Soriano, but its most important might be replacing Dusty Baker with Lou Piniella. The fiery manager flamed out in his last stop, with his hometown Devil Rays, but he does have over 1500 wins in the majors. Whether he’s the right manager for this club remains to be seen, but his presence, along with the benefits of 300 million worth of talent should see the Cubs bounce back towards respectability. Just how high they bounce will depend entirely on whether or not they learn the importance of a free pass given and a free pass taken.

Houston Astros (82-80)


Projected Win Range: 77-81
Best Player: Lance Berkman – The only thing I don’t like about Berkman is that the Astros insist on playing him at first base, which means I can no longer take him for my Rotisserie team (I already have that first baseman from the Cardinals). He hits for average, power, and walks, in short he’s the division’s best hitter not named Albert.
Best Pitcher: Roy Oswalt – With the (assumed) departure of Roger Clemens, Oswalt is all alone atop the Astros pitching chart, which is a fine place for him and his career 3.05 ERA to be.
Best Kid: Hunter Pence – The Astros plan has been to give Pence one more season in the minors to develop, while having Chris Burke hold his seat in centerfield warm, thus allowing Craig Biggio (at Burke’s natural spot) make that historic push for 3,000 hits. Unfortunately, the best of plans are sometimes undone and this one should be, because right now Pence is the best player of the three.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading top pitching prospect Jason Hirsch to the Rockies for Jason Jennings should help the Astros shoulder some of the burden of losing Clemens and Pettitte
Questionable Offseason Move: The Astros had a terrible offence last year and thus spent 100 million to entice Carlos Lee and his big bat to town. The problem is that Lee only fills one spot in the lineup, and that his defense will soon, if not now, negate most of the positives from his bat.
Bottom Line: The Astros are two years removed from their only World Series appearance, but the departures of their flame-throwing Texas twosome makes a repeat appearance incredibly unlikely. In the short term the Jennings deal will help, but the Lee deal makes little sense. In essence, the Astros brought him aboard at the expense of Pettitte, thus sacrificing from their pitching to help their hitting. That’d be fine if their pitching wasn’t also losing Clemens and his ridiculous 2.44 ERA the past three years, and the batting upgrade replaced the anemic bats of Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus, and (I’m sorry to say) Craig Biggio. While Biggio is a very deserving Hall of Fame candidate, each of those three was among the five worst hitters in baseball at their positions last year. And despite the presence of Lee, each of those three will be in the lineup again this year. Everett is probably the best defensive shortstop in baseball, so his presence can be justified, but Ausmus and Biggio are killing the ‘Stros. This is a team that in four years has gone from the Jeff Bagwell – Biggio era to the Clemens-Pettitte one, and is now changing again. How quickly they change will depend on how fast they find improvements for those three weak links in the lineup, but right now they look like less than a .500 team.

Cincinnati Reds (80-82)


Projected Win Range: 72-76
Best Player: Adam Dunn – Don’t look at the batting average or the strikeouts, neither mean as much as you’d think. Look at the walks and home runs, they mean a lot more.
Best Pitcher: Bronson Arroyo – The guitar playing, corn row wearing, right hander is a fly ball pitcher in a park where the ball carries. Seems like a recipe for disaster, but nonetheless, he’s the Reds’ best…
Best Kid: Homer Bailey – Which is why you might see Bailey before too long. Neck and neck with the Yankees Phil Hughes for baseball’s most promising minor league pitcher, Bailey was 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 68 innings.
Impact Offseason Move: Whether he wants to admit it or not, Ken Griffey Jr. is no longer the Kid, and he’s no longer fleet enough to cover the territory in center. This move should have been made two years ago.
Questionable Offseason Move: Repeat after mean, “One Swallow does not a Summer Make.” What does that mean? It means that no matter how good Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo were last year, it was the first time they were that good. And one good year amongst many average ones is what we call and outlier. Basing both of their salaries on outliers is a risky proposition.
Bottom Line: Bailey’s going to be good, and the Reds also have the supremely talented Jay Bruce learning the trade in the minors, unfortunately by the time they’re ready to dominate, Griffey will have a blanket over his lap as he rocks in his rocker (or at best, DHing in Seattle), and the Reds will again look like a two trick-pony. For this year, hopes in Cincinnati are high, unrealistically so, after last year’s 80 win team threatened for the central title. Unfortunately, with what looks like career years from Harang and Arroyo that could be the high tide mark. The big addition to the lineup was Alex Gonzalez who’s overrated (albeit good) with the glove, and terrible with the bat. Yet seemingly the exposure of playing for the Red Sox, no matter how well or poorly, is good for a player’s bank account. Despite only 90 home runs in 3609 at bats and a career OBP of .292, the Reds gave Gonzalez 14 million for three years. It’s a bad investment, one which will be compounded by having re-tread Scott Hatteberg at first, and David Ross behind the plate. Holding off Pittsburgh for the division’s basement will be an accomplishment, maybe not one worth celebrating, but one far more achieveable than winning the division.

Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)


Projected Win Range: 71-75
Best Player: Jason Bay – It pains me to see this Canadian great toiling away for such a sad franchise, at least he has an exciting young hockey team to watch in his spare time.
Best Pitcher: Zach Duke – For Pittsburgh to meet even some modest goals --- say, finishing above .500 for the first time since 1992 --- then Duke will have to go from being a good pitcher on a bad team to the ace he was projected to be.
Best Kid: Andrew McCutchen – The only bad thing about McCuthen, is that he probably wont be ready to help the team until September, by which another season will have slipped away for the Bucs.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading ageing closer Mike Gonzalez for solid first baseman Adam LaRoche is the best trade the Bucs have made since stealing Jason Bay from San Diego.
Questionable Offseason Move: Bringing in re-tread third baseman, and one trick pony Jose Bautista to play third, which moves the slick fielding Freddy Sanchez to second base, where his defense noticeably declines.
Bottom Line: I’ve said this before and (apparently) I’m going to say it again, but the Bucs are moving in the right direction. Really, I swear. They’re just choosing to do so at a snail’s pace. Their pitching, led by the 24 year old Duke is talented, but they’re also inexperienced. Without a top of the rotation stud to take the pressure off the kids, it’s hard for Pittsburgh to break bad momentum and stave off losing streaks. The Pirates think that 2005 first round choice, Brad Lincoln has that star potential, but he’s at least two years away from making his debut and one wonders why the Pirates didn’t select the better regarded (although pricier) Andrew Miller, who made his debut for the Tigers last September and has ace written all over him. While the rotation is young, the lineup is a mix of the good (Bay), the mediocre (Xavier Nady), and the overrated (Jack Wilson). If the Pirates don’t get over their mind numbing desire to bat Wilson second (thus pushing Bay to fifth), they will limit the plate appearances of their lone all star (Bay), costing themselves runs in the process. That’s the challenge for the Bucs this year, figuring out how to stop stunting their own progress, because if some of their young pitchers develop, then they could legitimately compete next summer, but only if they make better decisions with their talent.

Monday, March 26, 2007

2007 American League West Preview:

Say whatever you want about Billy Beane and the whole Moneyball concept (which is misrepresented most of the time it’s represented), but since the turn of the decade the American League West has been Billy’s world. In seven seasons, the Athletics have won the division four times, taken the Wild Card with 102 wins in 2001, and never finished lower than second. While this is far from Yankee-like domination, it’s an phenomenal feat when you juxtapose it against the incredible turnover Oakland has undergone almost every season. The names on the lockers change, heck even the name on the manager’s door changes, but the one constant is Beane. This offseason, the A’s said goodbye to flamboyant lefthander, and Cy Young winner, Barry Zito. While there is a lot of debate about Zito’s status as an ace, there is no debate that his departure, along with that of manager Ken Macha, marks something of an end of an era. Only third baseman Eric Chavez now remains from that first great team that Beane constructed. The Giambi-Tejada-Hudson-Mulder-Zito star core has been replaced by depth and versatility. The A’s now win with names like Scutaro, Swisher, Haren, and Street. They still find the occasional young gem, but they’ve also become experts at taking the old and unwanted (Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Jay Payton, and Shannon Stewart) and finding value. They no longer look dominant, but they are the division’s constant.

While the Athletics have paced the division, Texas has spent the entire decade looking for pitching, and the Seattle Mariners have gone from 116 wins in 2001 to 63, 69, and 78 wins the last three years. Only the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim), with their billionaire owner, massive market, and --- oh yeah --- their rally towel 2002 championship, can claim to have left a similar type imprint on the division. Yet, despite that title, when you think of the West, the first name on your tongue is that of Beane, not Angels’ owner Arte Moreno. Which is odd, given the financial disparities of the two teams, it’s the Angels who should be ruling the roost, using their massive resources to control the division. The Angels have the financial might to levy large contracts on big stars, and they have a minor league organization which has been ranked 5th, 3rd, 1st, and 4th by Baseball America over the past four years. With Zito pitching across the Bay, Oakland looks shakier then they have at any other time in the Beane era, which makes this the perfect season for the Angels to take a lesson from their East Coast big market rivals and start bullying the other Western teams.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (89-73 Last Season)


Projected Win Range: 90-94
Best Player: Vladimir Guerrero – He might have a balky back, and his knees make him run like a wounded buffalo, but the free swinging Guerrero still gets solid wood on more balls than anyone in baseball.
Best Pitcher: John Lackey – The unsung hero of the Angels’ rotation, Lackey held down the fort last year, after reigning Cy Young winner, Bartolo “Is this the line of the all you can eat buffet” Colon, was lost. In his four full seasons, Lackey has yet to win fewer than 10 games, and his ERA + the past two years is a very impressive 123.
Best Kid: Howie Kendrick – The Angels have such depth in their organization, that this could just as easily be Brandon Wood, or Nick Adenhart, or Erick Aybar, but Kendrick --- whom many project as a future multiple batting champion --- gets the edge as he’ll start the year with a regular spot in LA’s lineup.
Impact Offseason Move: Signing innings-eating set-up man Justin Speier to a four year 16 million contract.
Questionable Offseason Move: Gary Matthews Jr. already embarrassed the organization when his name was tied to an HGH supply ring, but even if his name had not broken in that scandal, giving the soon to be 32 year old, with one “career” year 50 million over five years was dumb.
Bottom Line: I don’t want to pick the Angels, I really don’t. Frankly I think they had a terrible offseason, with the poor Matthews deal compounded by a knee jerk one year deal for the petulant Shea Hillenbrand. While the Angels’ farm system is deep, outfield is the one area where they lack star power, but with two top flight shortstops (Wood and Aybar) blocked by incumbent Orlando Cabrera, why not move one for some outfield help. Or dangle one of their excess starters? There were better, and cheaper, options on the market than Matthews, and the Angels --- who signed Hillenbrand after incumbent DH Juan Rivera tore knee ligaments over the winter --- had better in house options than Shea. Still, the Angels are so deep in the rotation and so deep in the minors, that I cannot honestly envision anyone in the AL West beating them out. Lackey leads a rotation that might not be flashy, but is young and supremely effective. Even if sophomores Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver slump, the Angels have veterans Hector Carrasco, Kelvim Escobar, and Ervin Santana to pick up the slack, which doesn’t even broach the return of Colon sometime in early May. The offence still lacks reasonable protection for Guerrero, but they should generate enough runs to give their pitchers the lead, and the Angels’ bullpen is too good (and too deep) to blow many leads.

Oakland Athletics (93-69)


Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Nick Swisher – Whether it’s at first base, or any of the three outfield spots, Swisher shows up to play wherever the A’s need him. Somewhat of a super utility man, he also put 35 balls over the fence, while drawing 97 free passes.
Best Pitcher: Danny Haren – I would like nothing better than to write Rich Harden’s name here, but the young Victorian is starting to look eerily similar to the Cubs’ star crossed pair (Mark Prior and Kerry Wood). Meanwhile, all Haren does is show up, throw seven innings of three run ball, and stand and wait for his bullpen to tie up the win.
Best Kid: Travis Buck – Billy Beane has stockpiled veteran outfielders, but he needs to be careful not to block the path of Buck, who projects as the A’s right fielder of the future and should be ready by mid season.
Impact Offseason Move: I think the time is right (maybe even a year too late) for Mike Piazza to spend 140 games in the lineup as a DH. Don’t be worried about his career stats as a DH, once the hall of fame catcher adjusts to the cadence of only batting in games, he should become settle in as one of baseball’s best DH’s.
Questionable Offseason Move: Well, I’m not wild about the two year deal they handed to Alan Embree, but that’s some serious quibbling.
Bottom Line: I’d never bet against the A’s, but if they don’t get 30 starts from Rich Harden, then their once formidable pitching staff will struggle. While they would like to get a full injury free season from shortstop Bobby Crosby, it’s Harden on who’s shoulders the A’s season hangs. Losing Zito isn’t a huge blow, if Harden can stay healthy, because when he pitches, the former Claremont Secondary star is one of the few pitchers who can challenge Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young. What Beane has done with the A’s is replace all those stars with a deep, talented lineup. Nobody blows you away with their numbers, but combined they do just enough to win 70 games in the season’s final three months. After last year, Beane fired manager Ken Macha (oddly enough for the second time in less than a year) and while much of that was because of Macha’s aloofness alienating everybody within the organization, it also has something to do with the A’s trademark slow starts. While the media might find them charming and quaint, Beane realizes that slow starts likely cost him the division in 2004, and made things interesting last year. A slow start his year might create too big a hole for the A’s to climb their way out of, especially if they are doing that climbing without Harden.

Texas Rangers (80-82)


Projected Win Range: 84-89
Best Player: Mark Teixeira – He might have had an off year in 2006, but the big, switch hitting, gold glove first baseman should bounce back in a serious way in 2007. If you want to put money on somebody winning the AL home run title, he should be your guy.
Best Pitcher: Kevin Millwood – After winning the American League ERA title with Cleveland in 2005, Millwood saw his 2.86 ERA jump to 4.52 last year. Those warm, breezy afternoons at the Ballpark in Arlington will do that to you, but Texas will be happy if Millwood continues to shrug off the numbers difference and posts another 16 wins.
Best Kid: Brandon McCarthy – after being touted as the next big thing in Chicago for the past two years, McCarthy was surprisingly sent to the Rangers this offseason for minor leaguer John Danks. While he never seemed to have a roster spot for the White Sox, in Texas, the young righty will immediately step into the three slot in the rotation.
Impact Offseason Move: the McCarthy trade made sense, as he and Danks have similar upsides and are close in age (23-21), but McCarthy’s ready to help the big club right now.
Questionable Offseason Move: Overpaying Michael Young will handcuff this organization worse than overpaying Alex Rodriguez did.
Bottom Line: Any close observer of history would note that the Rangers are a lock to win the World Series this year. After all, the last two teams to fire Buck Showalter won the World Series in the very next year. Of course, unlike the Yankees of 1996, or the Diamondback of 2001, the Rangers don’t have a dynamite, lights out pitching staff. While Joe Torre inherited a team with Jimmy Key, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetland, and Bob Brenly inherited a team with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, new Texas manager Ron Washington inherits a team with Vincente Padilla as the number two starter and Akinori Otsuka as the closer. While Washington may be as talented as his two post-Showalter predecessors, he will be hard pressed to match their results without a phenomenal recovery from former Dodger closer Eric Gagne, who’s missed most of the past three seasons. This scribe hates to say it, but a dominant turn by Gagne seems unlikely. More likely is getting solid production from the Rangers’ other flier: tarnished, 38 year old Sammy Sosa. If he can hit 25 plus home runs the removal of the anal and acerbic Showalter reinvigorates the careers of Teixeira and third baseman Hank Blalock, then maybe the Rangers can survive with some sub par outings from the mound. But most likely, the season for the Rangers will come down to how many pitchers can throw strikes and keep the ball from flying over the fence.

Seattle Mariners (78-84)


Projected Win Range: 80-84
Best Player: Raul Ibanez – Some might think Ichiro belongs here, and the Mariners new centerfielder certainly is the Mariners best player to watch, but over the past two seasons, Ibanez has been the M’s most consistent hitter.
Best Pitcher: Felix Hernandez – All this talk about Hernandez getting the kid gloves taken off and being used like a man is a bit ridiculous. Yes, Hernandez is the Mariners best pitcher and they should want him throwing as often as possible, but he’s also only 21 and they should want him throwing as often as possible for the next decade. Just because he wants to pitch as much as possible (as he should), doesn’t mean you don’t keep an eye on his pitch counts, limit his appearances, and benefit from the excitement of a healthy young superstar hurler.
Best Kid: Adam Jones – Jones didn’t blow anyone away in his major league debut last year, but he did give enough glimpses of his talent to keep expectations high. The converted shortstop could still use a half year in AAA to work on his outfield play, but don’t be surprised to see him push Jose Guillen from the third outfield spot.
Impact Offseason Move: Given the massive contracts handed to pitchers this offseason, the three year, 25 million deal the Mariners gave Miguel Batista is fairly solid.
Questionable Offseason Move: Not to pick on the M’s, but it could be the signing of the cancerous Jose Guillen, or the one year deal for Jeff Weaver who had a 6.29 ERA pitching in the AL West last year. Or, it might have been sending two prospects to Washington so they could overpay a light hitting second baseman, who’s knees are so bad he’s now reisgned to DH.
Bottom Line: The Mariners were actually a decent club last year, winning 78 games; and with some good moves might have made a push for .500 this year, but last winter, the first move of the organization should have been disposing of outclassed GM Bill Bavasi. Besides those questionable moves above, Bavasi also shipped ace set-up man Rafael Soriano to the Braves for marginal fifth starter Haracio Ramirez. Now, in general a starter is more valuable than a reliever, but… If Ramirez was struggling as a starter in the National league, what’s going to happen when he starts facing American League lineups? The Mariners will be better than people think, just because King Felix is a year older, their infield is solid to good across the board and Ichiro is still a dynamic player, but unless Bavasi makes a couple smart moves during the season (and his track record doesn’t leave you hopeful), then the moves he made this winter will hold the team back this year and next.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

2007 National League West Preview:

Two years ago the National League West was baseball’s laughing stock division; won by the 82-80 San Diego Padres. Last season it wasn’t a lot better, but it improved enough (and the rest of the league regressed enough) that with two 88 win teams, the West sent two teams to the postseason. While the Padres claimed their second straight division title, and the Dodgers claimed the Wild Card, the rest of the division each finished with 76 wins. This marked great improvement for the young, but suddenly relevant Colorado Rockies, mild disappointment for the equally young Arizona Diamondbacks, and great disappointment for the circus show that is the Barry Bonds led San Francisco Giants. Giant GM Brain Sabean once looked like one of the best in the business, but an over reliance on ageing (crystallized?) talent has produced only 151 wins in the past two seasons. In an attempt to jump start his team back to the top --- and to set up its post Bonds identity --- Sabean spent big money this off-season, dropping 126 million bones into the lap of Oakland’s Barry Zito. A championship this year, before Bonds rides off into the post-756 sunset would surely justify all those (including this scribe) who questioned the dollars, but in five, six and seven years time it may be money the Giants (although probably not Sabean himself) will be regretting.

The Giants real coup might have been stealing Padres manager Bruce Bochy, who, despite two straight division titles, was deemed expendable by the Padres. In an interesting move, the Padres tapped Anaheim pitching coach Bud Black to be their manager. While pitching coaches are highly regarded and hugely important, they have historically made for poor managers, the knowledge of pitching seeming to be centralized and somewhat incompatible with the rest of the game. It’s the reason that despite incredible coaching careers, neither Leo Mazzone nor Dave Duncan have ever been given serious consideration for a managerial position. Black has been seen as a top managerial candidate for several years, but the failure of previous pitching coach turned managers has kept the top job from him. It’s appropriate that an NL West team would align themselves with a pitching coach, because top to bottom the West has the best pitching staffs in baseball --- a division which was so dreadful two years ago, has re-gained credibility on the strength of its arms. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb headlines a division that has 11 Cy Young awards, nine twenty game winners, ten players to have posted the lowest ERA in their league, and another eleven who have led their league in innings pitched. There are old timers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, and there are youngster like Chad Billingsley and Matt Cain. In between them are perennial Cy candidates in their prime, Webb and Jake Peavy. So who has the biggest arms? Or in a division of strong pitching, does it really come down to who has the biggest bats? There’s really only one thing to do, so lets break ‘em down:

Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86 Last Year)


Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Stephen Drew – The younger brother of star crossed Red Sox outfielder, J.D. Drew, Stephen is a slick fielding, big bat wielding shortstop who enters his second season ready to lead the D-Backs from the field and the top of the order.
Best Pitcher: Brandon Webb – When Randy Johnson left Arizona for the Yankees, Webb was the future of the D-Backs pitching staff, a young sinkerballer who showed considerable promise, but had just lost 16 games. Two years later he returns to find that the 27 year old is all grown up, and the leader of what was once Randy’s rotation.
Best Kid: Chris Young – The Diamondbacks have done an excellent job of clearing out the decrepit wood from their lineup to free the way for the precocious talent in their farm system. Young offers gold glove caliber coverage in center, while showing 30-30 promise at the plate. He’ll start the season at the back end of the lineup, but don’t be surprised to see him batting second by season’s end.
Impact Offseason Move: Bringing back the Big Unit for Luis Vizcaino and three prospects, will help solidify the D-Backs rotation. For all the histrionics from the NY media about Johnson, he still lead the Yanks in both wins and innings pitched over his two year stint. A return to the friendlier NL West, will help his homers and make his ERA prettier.
Questionable Offseason Move: None, I have nothing to quibble about…
Bottom Line: After two years of stripping away the payroll bloating dead wood of their championship years, the Diamondbacks made only two moves of note in an otherwise quiet offseason. By adding the mercurial Johnson and sending former all star catcher, Johnny Estrada to Milwaukee for right handed starter Doug Davis, the D-Backs added a pair of inning eating hurlers, to solidify a rotation that now boasts four players who started opening day for their respective teams last year. While the pitching staff is now loaded with grizzled veterans, the lineup will contain only three regulars 26 or older (left fielder Eric Byrnes, 31, second baseman Orlando Hudson, 29, and third baseman Chad Tracy, 26). Youngsters Drew (24), Young (22), right fielder Carlos Quentin (23), first baseman Connor Jackson (24), and catcher Miguel Montero (22) will have to show incredible maturity for this team to fulfill its promise. They might still be a year away, but I think management’s faith in the youth --- and avoidance of overpriced, production declining veterans --- will show benefits with a division title in 2007.

Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74)


Projected Win Range: 88-92
Best Player: Rafael Furcal – The all star shortstop might not be worth the 13 million a year salary he commanded on the open market last year, but his first season with the Dodgers was a success. A smooth fielder, Furcal showed the requisite patience at the plate (73 walks) to be a top leadoff hitter.
Best Pitcher: Derek Lowe – Being underappreciated in two of baseball’s largest (and most ferocious) markets is fairly impressive. In the five years since the Red Sox turned Lowe from closer to starter, he has gone 80-50, with only one season below 200 innings pitched. His two season’s in LA have seen nearly identical 3.61 and 3.63 ERAs, with solid 1.25 and 1.26 Walk, Hits, per Inning Pitched (WHIP).
Best Kid: Andy LaRoche – If the 23 year old third baseman doesn’t win the job in Spring training, expect him to knock the leather off the ball in triple A, earning himself a mid summer call up to the big club. LaRoche isn’t the top third base prospect in the minors (that would be Kansas City’s Alex Gordon), but he could stake a claim to being the second. A claim fully supported by 19 home runs in slightly more than 400 minor league at bats last year, and an impressive .950 OPS in AAA.
Impact Offseason Move: Signing Jason Schmidt for a very reasonable 47 million over three years.
Questionable Offseason Move: Effectively blocking the path of centerfielder Matt Kemp to the majors, by giving the immensely overrated Juan Pierre 44 million over 5 years.
Bottom Line: In a division where that seems to be split between incredibly youthful teams (Arizona and Colorado) and lumbering old timers (San Francisco and San Diego), the Dodger seem to straddle the fence, maintaining a perennially top rated farm system (five straight years among the top five), while committing money to veterans on the wrong side of their career slope (Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Nomar Garciapara). Still, adding Schmidt means the Dodgers have the best rotation in the National League, with two lights out left handers making a rapid climb of the organizations farm team. The rotation figures to help keep the team in games while they figure out whether the team is better off with the kids (LaRoche, Kemp, James Loney) or the vets (see above) hitting. One thing’s for sure, if 38 year Jeff Kent remains the team’s most consistent power source, then the pitchers will have to be too lights out, too often.

Colorado Rockies (76-86)


Projected Win Range: 79-83
Best Player: Garret Atkins – Underrated amongst the game’s top young third basemen, Atkins had a .965 OPS last year while driving in 120 runs.
Best Pitcher: Jeff Francis – I don’t put Francis here simply because he was born on the right side of the border (although it obviously doesn’t hurt), but because as he enters his third season, Francis is the leader of the Rockies young rotation.
Best Kid: Troy Tulowitzki – Last September Tulowitzki claimed the starting shortstop role from the dear moving Clint Barmes, eventually he’ll be a middle of the order run producer and club house leader.
Impact Offseason Move: Trading number three starter, and impending free agent, Jason Jennings to Houston for centerfielder Willy Taveras, and right handed pitchers Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh.
Questionable Offseason Move: Not finalizing a deal with the Red Sox for ageing, over priced first baseman Todd Helton, while it would have been hard to severe ties with the face of the franchise, getting Helton’s contract off the books would have been massively beneficial for the fiscally tight franchise.
Bottom Line: The Rockies were rotten for so long that nobody really noticed them last season, but their run differential was that of a .500 team. Gone are the days of the albatross contract, particularly amongst the pitching staff. High priced veteran pitchers have been replaced by youngsters bred in the thin air of Coors. The difference is an appreciable improvement amongst the hurlers, their 4.66 team ERA was the lowest in franchise history and the first time since 1995 that Rockies pitchers kept their collective ERA below five. They still aren’t lights out, but Rockies’ pitchers are now conditioned to keep the ball low, thus limiting fly balls, and the damage of the thin air. The hurlers don’t need to be lights out, because once again the Rockies can mash. With Taveras now creating havoc at the top of lineup, the Rockies should score a lot of runs. Atkins and left fielder Matt Holiday form a formidable middle of the lineup, and while Helton is declining, he still gets on base with the best of them. Winning 80 games for the first time since 2000 is a reasonable goal for the Rockies, an achievement that should only be a stepping stone to greater success in the next few years.

San Diego Padres (88-74)


Projected Win Range: 78-82
Best Player: Adrian Gonzalez – While Gonzalez will never develop into a top flight Alex Rodriguez type hitter, he has done enough to justify his place as the first pick in the 2001 draft. A gold glove first baseman, who should provide a Bernie Williams type presence in the middle of the Padres lineup.
Best Pitcher: Jake Peavy – Peavy’s numbers last year don’t look good, an 11-14 record and 4.09 ERA certainly aren’t what you’d expect from a Cy Young candidate, but as lame as it sounds, the right handed flame thrower was actually extremely unlucky, expect his numbers to return to normal this year.
Best Kid: Kevin Kouzmanoff – The Padres desperately needed a third baseman and thought enough about the bat of the young Kouzmanoff to give up on talented young second baseman, Josh Barfield.
Impact Offseason Move: I questioned the move at the time, but if Kouzmanoff can deliver at the plate, then this deal could be one of those proverbial “worked for both teams.”
Questionable Offseason Move: I’m not wild about giving the fifth rotation spot to David “Boomer” Wells, but probably the Padres worst move was not finding another hitter for their lineup.
Bottom Line: After a second straight division title, the Padres said goodbye to manager Bruce Bochy and one year catcher Mike Piazza. While Piazza was far from his prime, the Padres found nobody to take his place in the middle of the lineup. Their offence finished fourteenth last year, and there is little chance of it improving by itself. The Padres farm system is largely vacant, so they aren’t likely to get a big bat from the minors. That’s why ace set-up man Scott Linebrink woke every morning to see his name in the trade rumor portion of the paper. What the Padres still have is great pitching. Peavy leads a staff that added all time great Greg Maddux, who wont pitch more than six innings an outing, but is still a model of consistency. Maddux’s presence should pay positive dividends with Peavy and youngsters Chris Young and Clay Hensley. For a third straight title, the Padres pitching will have to carry an even larger load than last year, when their 3.87 team ERA was the best in the league. That’s a lot to ask for a second straight season and I don’t see it playing out well.

San Francisco Giants (76-85)


Projected Win Range: 74-78
Best Player: Barry Bonds – Once again, the Elephant is the single most important player for the Giants. For them to have any chance of making the playoffs, Bonds’ bat will have to be in the Giants’ lineup in 130 games.
Best Pitcher: Barry Zito – Zito had better be the Giants best pitcher for this season at least, because, giant contract or not, he probably wont be for much longer.
Best Kid: Tim Linecum – The young right hander has made a meteoric rise up the Giants system, he’ll probably start the year in AAA, but if something should happen to Armando Benitez, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Linecum have a Jonathon Papelbon type impact for the Giants.
Impact Offseason Move: Oh, it’s hard to have a bigger impact than dropping 125 million in the lap of somebody, but…
Questionable Offseason Move: Why give Zito 125 million, when you could have retained the more effective Schmidt for a third the price, and four fewer years?
Bottom Line: Just as the D-Backs are incredibly young, the Giants are likewise old. They gave Zito a big chunk of change, in hopes of creating a positive post-Bonds identity, but in this --- presumably the final year of Barry --- their lineup averages 35 years old. That’s a lot of mileage on the legs of hitters one through eight. Unlike the Dodgers, the Giants don’t have any young options to bring up should shortstop Omar Vizquel succumb to being 40. Despite the presence of Zito, the pitching staff looks shaky, with a lot depending on the production of Noah Lowry and Matt Cain. Can the Giants make a summer run? Well, I’d never say never, but I think we’re two years removed from Bonds being able to carry this team on his artificially inflated head, and general manager Brian Sabean has been unable, or unwilling, to surround the ageing Barry with fresh legs. I’d be more surprised to see the Giants finish .500, than to see them fail to win 70. Their projected win total comes somewhere in the middle of that, on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

I'm feeling a bit crazy... It's like some sort of... MADNESS!

Can you feel it boiling inside of you? The emergence of the crazy beast that consumes you each and every March? Are you ready for the madness? Have you filled out your brackets, scratched out some names and re-filled them out again? Do you religiously watch college hoops throughout the year, or do you casually follow teams, watch the conference tourneys and base your picks on Holmes-ian type detective (or guess) work? There’s nothing wrong with the latter, certainly I involve myself in a lot of that, after all unless you are being paid to exclusively do so, it’s hard to follow each of the three hundred or so teams that play division one hoops. Even if you can discount all but 80 of them by February, that still leaves a bunch of Albany’s, Long Beach State’s, and Eastern Kentucky’s which you will be hard pressed to watch, without a good satellite system. I mean, how much time have you really spent watching Robert’s Oral this year? What’s that honey? It’s Oral Roberts? Oh yeah, that seems less, uhmm… sordid. Still, the question remains, how many Oral Roberts’ games have you seen? Or Old Dominion? Heck, even among the power conferences, have you seen Villanova ball, or are you giving them a little extra love because of last year’s team? There’s just so much information that goes into picking a great bracket; if you work at the right place (in a corner cubicle, where your boss rarely strolls by) then you could spend eight hours a day on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday reading scouting reports, experts opinions, and game matchups before filling your bracket out tonight, but of course who has that sort of time. And lets be honest, as impressive as it is when somebody fills out a perfect bracket, there is no disputing that careful planning and smart preparation account for at most fifty percent of that. The rest? Pure, unadulterated luck. The tournament is filled with crazy last second finishes, it’s part of what makes the whole thing so amazing, we love the buzzer beaters, but any serious analytical discussion of tight games shows that the outcomes are completely random. There is no such thing as a team that’s good in tight games. There’s luck, a team which looks particularly good in tight games one season, will usually even out the next (or even within a particular season). The most important part in a good bracket is picking the winners. The crazy upsets, well they’re fun, and sometimes we legitimately believed in our choice, but more often than not it’s luck.

What’s you favorite part of the NCAA tournament? Is it selection Sunday and the lottery like process of determining who’s in, who’s playing whom, and who got shafted (either by being left out, or by a potentially rough opponent, or hostile arena)? Or is it the madness of this first weekend? Do you like the better matchups that follow in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight? Or do you just hold out for the breathtaking excitement of the Final Four? Personally, it’s the first weekend that gets me jazzed. Twelve hours of basketball for four straight days, it’s enough to make a good woman leave you, unless of course your good woman’s like mine and loves the tournament… Now, I’d feel a little better about the whole thing if the endless rain that’s suppressed smiles around Vancouver for the past month hadn’t decided to, well, end this morning. Conceivably, that could make it hard to stay inside all day and ignore our first vestiges of spring, but, fear not Hoops fans, there is that lovely little break from two until four, so unless you’re an insane, die hard, Bob Barker fan (and I couldn’t really judge you if you were), then that’s the time to get outside, refresh you batteries, soak up a little vitamin D, and get ready for the featured evening matchups. And in the end, it doesn’t really matter who you pick, or who I pick, the games just take on a life of their own. It’s not the brackets we remember in ten years’ time, it’s the magic, the glorious victories, the gut wrenching losses. The desperate expressions of teenagers, kids not yet able to buy beer experiencing something we can only dream of. Forty minutes of intense play, some of it terrible, much of it breathtaking, makes us want more. It’s why when the new year arrives, most hoops fans first thought is, only two and a half months until the madness. Now, well, now we have only 21 hours to wait? Can you survive, can you suppress the Beast that long?

Monday, March 05, 2007

If Garnett Opts Out, Where Does He Go...

He’s been a loyal soldier since they drafted him, but Kevin Garnett’s cryptic comments about his contract last week opens up a Pandora’s box of possibilities. They are his first public comments that imply that he might consider leaving Minnesota, although not through the trade demand everyone keeps anticipating, but through an opt-put clause in his contract for next season. In other words, while nobody expects him to hit the open market, Garnett could be a free agent this summer. Now, lets start by tempering our excitement: Garnett’s contract calls for him to earn 46 million in the next two years. If he opts out, there’s no possibility of Garnett recouping that money. Even if he signs a maximum contract with another team, the salary will start out in the 16 million a year range. Far shy of the 22 Minnesota will pay him next year. However, by season’s end, Garnett will already have earned 186 million in his career, in salary alone. That doesn’t include any shoe money, soft drink money, Gatorade money, or any other endorsements that the Kid has had. Last year he made an easy seven million shooting commercials. That might be a high water mark, but I think we can assume that he’s earned at least 14 million in his career in endorsements. Enough to push his career earnings over 200 million. Now there are a couple of truths here, first is that the more money you make, the more money you need, but the second is that incredibly gifted athletes, men who consider themselves to be the very best, not just of today, but of all time, need to win. It’s the ultimate validation of a great career, the difference between Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio, Dan Marino and John Elway, Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing. Snide NBA columnists could have told you two years ago, that the Timberwolves were no longer a team that could reasonably challenge for a title, this we thought would mean Garnett would ask for, and receive, a trade that would allow the Wolves to move on and Garnett to pursue a championship. That hasn’t happened. Perhaps until this deadline passed, Garnett really did believe that the Wolves were one player away. They aren’t, but there are a lot of other teams in the league who are one player away, especially if that one player were Kevin Garnett.

If Garnett puts himself on the open market, leaving behind the money Minnesota’s already promised him, then, perhaps, he’s deciding that 200 million is enough for one man. That 200 million can buy you anything, except of course the pure, unadulterated joy of winning a professional championship. And, if Garnett makes that decision, then it’s plausible that he could sign not just with the small handful of teams that have money to spend this offseason, but that he could sign with anyone. This isn’t such a crazy leap of faith. Teams with cap room are generally not contending teams, so if KG decides to opt out, he’s likely deciding to go for the gold, over earning the gold. The midlevel exception allows any team over the salary cap to sign a player for up to five million. So, conceivably, Garnett could decide that he really wants to win a championship and Dallas is the most likely place for him to accomplish that goal. Then for a mere five million, Mark Cuban could add Garnett to a team that right now is on pace for 70 wins. Now, there are all kinds of parameters around which Garnett might make his decision. He could decide that he wants to go for the sure bet (Dallas), or he could decide that he wants to be part of something uniquely special (Phoenix), or he could decide that he wants to be a bigger piece of the puzzle (LA Lakers), even if he isn’t the sole big fish. I’d bet that whatever he decides, it will involve not piggy-backing on whomever claims this year’s championship, so for now I’m going to ignore the two most likely NBA champions, Dallas and Phoenix, and give the ten most interesting destinations for Garnett:

New Jersey Nets – With Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson Garnett and the Nets would rule the East. So why don’t the Nets rank higher? Oh I don’t know, perhaps it’s because they’ve been pursuing Garnett for two years now, so them acquiring him just seems prosaic, or perhaps it’s just that Vince is a weenie and the Nets kind of bore me. Stupid and spiteful, I know, but I’d be kind of disappointed to see KG end up in the Garden State.

Washington Wizards – KG has never played with a prodigious scorer, and while there are better players out there, nobody quite lights it up like the Hibachi. KG’s arrival would probably mean that Antwaan Jamison would need relocating, but he’d still make a formidable threesome with Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Plus, unlike Jamison, KG would shore up the Wizards defense, while adding that front court, low post presence they lack. If they weren’t championship favorites, the Wizards would at worst be Eastern conference favorites.

Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets are such a hodgepodge right now that it’s hard to know what Garnett’s presence would mean. Would his defense and workman-like attitude rub off on Carmelo Anthony, or would his presence make Marcus Camby feel even more alienated at the offensive end, and, like Camby, would he ever see the ball other than rebounding Iverson’s miss? So many questions, so many exciting possibilities.

Boston Celtics – Basically, I’m assuming that Garnett would choose a winning team and ignore anyone who dabbled in the lottery this year, but… If the Celtics end up with one of the top two picks, then that would give them either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Combined with Garnett and current Celtic Paul Pierce, you’d have a formidable threesome, that could withstand the rookie’s first year growing pains. Either kid would be interesting, but the prospect of Garnett in the front court with Durant is particularly drool inducing. Garnett would also allow the Celtics to pair promising young forward Al Jefferson in a package with Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract for some serious backcourt help (like Jason Kidd). The Celtics could go from the worst team in basketball to champions, just like that. Tantalizing for those shamrock toting, Guinness drinking, hoops watching, ahhh… Bostonians.

Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron meet Kevin, Kevin meet LeBron… need I say more?

Los Angeles Lakers – Kobe meet Kevin, Kevin meet Kobe… need I say more? Yes? Hmmph, fine. Big Chief Triangle, meet an unselfish big man, who rebounds like crazy, defends everyone, and scores in a myriad of different ways; Garnett might be the best possible partner for your surly, yet incredibly gifted star, and certainly should help you pass Red atop the Championship heap.

Chicago Bulls – Like New Jersey, Chicago has been trying to acquire Garnett for a couple of years now. So, it would be pretty ironic for them to sign him to a free agent deal, without having to give up any of their vaunted youngsters. The length of a Luol Deng – Garnett – Ben Wallace front court is frightening, at least for opposing teams. The Bulls will also have a small amount of cap room, not enough to offer Garnett anything near his value, but enough to offer more than the midlevel, which makes them something of a front runner. Ben Gordan, who dropped 48 last night, is looking pretty good right now, but with Garnett opening up the floor, he’ll look even better.

Miami Heat – The reality is that Shaquille O’Neal is now a shell of his former self, which given that he’s a really large shell wouldn’t be such a bad thing, if he weren’t grossly overpaid. Nothing would help account for that better than drastically underpaying Garnett. Twenty-five million seems about right for both of them, never mind that it should be 17-8 for Garnett. Pairing those two up front, with Dwayne Wade in the backcourt, might just be enough to keep Pat Riley on the bench another couple of years.

Houston Rockets – Is any player in all of basketball more of a Jeff Van Gundy guy than Kevin Garnett? Can you imagine how quickly Van Gundy would say yes to the idea of adding Garnett to play alongside Yao. Houston already sports basketball’s best defense, with Juwan Howard at the four, can you imagine how they’d be with KG? Offensively, Tracy McGrady has already shown that at this point in his career, he’s content to be the creator, pumping the ball into Yao, the behemoth center who remains a selfless superstar himself. Like Miami, KG would make a power troika that would have teams all over basketball wetting themselves. I have them ahead of Miami, because Houston’s role players are better, which I think makes them a more interesting destination. Garnett could not put himself in any better of a position unless his agent placed a call to…

San Antonio Spurs – Lets be honest here, Duncan has been a center for three years now, so officially changing his position in the guide book to accommodate Garnett wouldn’t be a problem. Garnett is the selfless, defensive-oriented player that Greg Popovich has built the Spurs around. He alone would help shore up the Spurs defense, which hasn’t exactly become vulnerable, but certainly lacks the terrifying invincibility it’s had in the past. And Garnett paired up front with Duncan, while Parker, and Ginobili dominate the perimeter, well that would certainly mean his greatest chance at a championship.

In reality, it’s more likely that KG uses the threat that he could leave for nothing to force a trade, thus getting out of Minnesota, but still earning the big bucks. Because of the ridiculous size of his contract, any deal for the Kid would be complicated and probably require three teams (Chicago for instance can no longer use their expiring deals to acquire him). Whatever the end result, his comments give hope to this observer, who wants to see KG somewhere in which his ridiculous talents can have meaning. Somewhere he can shed the dogged championship burden and join truly, unabashedly join the pantheon of greats.

Friday, March 02, 2007

Bleeding Green Part Two: Expelling the Truth...

(Editors Note: This was written to follow the last post from Achanceyougottatake Sports, but life, as it sometimes does, got in the way, and the last paragrpah took a while to finish. We appologise and promise better output in March)

What do we know about trading superstars? Going as far back as Wilt Chamberlain or as recently as Shaq, Vince Carter, and Allen Iverson, what do we know? That when you trade a great player you maybe, maybe, get forty cents on the dollar. So why would the Celtics entertain trading Paul Pierce? Well, because in Pierce’s eight year career, the Celtics are 297 – 327, with no 50 win seasons and only one division crown. Is any of this Pierce’s fault? Of course not, he’s been a great player, but even if it’s not his fault, he’s not the solution either. At some point you have to realize that if you cannot build the right pieces around your star, then you need to remove your star from the equation and start over. It’s what Philadelphia realized this year and what we all hope Minnesota will realize before Kevin Garnett’s as old as Greg Oden looks. In Boston’s case, Pierce has valiantly held the ship afloat while the roster turned over from the Antoine Walker era to the Al Jefferson era, but this year marks a serious set back, and if the Celtics are ever to return to their championship glory, perhaps they have to do it without The Truth.

So reasonably, what can the Celtics acquire for Pierce? And, almost as important, what do they need? Well, if they trade Pierce, then the Celtics need a future star. Someone with serious star potential, somebody like one of the top picks in this draft. They also need depth and a point guard. As I mention with any potential trade for a superstar, the first call I make is to Chicago, where the Bulls have expiring contracts, young future all stars, and the Knicks’ lottery pick. There are two different, yet enticing offers that the Bulls could make for Pierce. First, Luol Deng, Thabo Sefolosha, the Knicks’ pick, and the expiring contracts of P.J. Brown and Mike Sweetney, or they could package the pick and Brown with Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas. Both offers give the Celtics three young pieces with which to rebuild, but would the Bulls pull the trigger for Pierce, or are they saving their pieces for a low post presence?

Obviously, either deal with the Bulls holds tremendous appeal, but if they aren’t biting then the Celtics should call Michael Jordan. Not the Bobcats, but Michael in particular. The NBA’s greatest player surely didn’t sign on to be the public face of the Bobcats, only to reside over a starless franchise that cannot win more than 30 games. While the Cats have good young pieces, what they need is a star to push them to that next level. Pierce combined with Emeka Okafor and Adam Morrison probably puts the Bobcats in the playoffs next year. So, as GM of the Celtics, I’d call the Bobcats and ask for a package involving Raymond Felton, Sean May, the Bobcats first round pick, and a lottery protected 2008 pick. If the Cats wanted to “Oden-protect” their pick, then I’d want some clause which saw Okafor substituted for him.

This trade exemplifies the style of play and type of team I’d try rebuilding with. The NBA’s going fast, with the Phoenix Suns leading the charge. The tempo’s increasing, guys are running, teams are trying to maximize scores. This doesn’t mean forgetting about defense, for all their scoring prowess, the Suns are eleventh in the league in defensive efficiency (and they were seventh before Kurt Thomas and Steve Nash went down), but it does mean pushing the pace and attacking the opposing team. Running on misses, working the ball around, making the extra pass, and scoring. Lots and lots of scoring. Pundits wonder whether this style of play can win a championship, but I’m pretty sure that if you asked Celtic great Larry Bird, he’d remember a certain um-tempo Laker attack winning two against his Celtics (who weren’t exactly walking the ball up court themselves) and three more in that decade. Sure, defense has evolved, but great young players can win playing fast, open basketball. That’s why Felton is essential to this deal. He’s not in the class of Chris Paul, or Deron Williams, but he’s certainly in the next tier of great young points. With his incredible speed, he’s tailor made to run a wide open attack. Obviously he’s not the shooter that Nash is (who is?), but in the right offence, he probably opens up the way T.J. Ford opened up for the Raptors this year.

Still, the key to the Charlotte trade is the draft choice. Even if the Celtics don’t receive a top two pick from Charlotte, they position themselves to take two top flight talents from this deep draft. As the Celtics losing streak just hit 18, Boston passed Memphis for the league’s worst record. They now have a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery and can fall no lower than fourth. Charlotte currently sits fourth in the lottery standings, which means they have an 11.9 percent chance of winning the lottery (and thus sending the Celtics Okafor) and a slightly better chance of finishing in the top five. I ran RealGM.com’s lottery simulator ten times, the best result was a one-two finish and the worst a four, six finish. The average finishing spot had the Celtics’ pick in the two hole and the Bobcats’ selection fourth.

It should go without saying that anything can happen on draft day and that the lottery process could see the Celtics screwed and picking fourth and seventh, but for the sake of this exercise, we’re going to assume that the Celtics choose second and fourth and that the first pick is Greg Oden. That makes the second choice easy for the Celtics: Kevin Durant, the eighteen year old who’s averaging 24.9 points and 11.4 rebounds in his first season with Texas. Durant is the key to any up-tempo team. His versatility, basketball IQ, range, and rebounding make him the perfect center piece. Like what Shawn Marion provides the Suns, but with a Kevin Garnett ceiling. The fourth pick is trickier, but involves one of three players: Joakim Noah is known to everyone because of his March heroics from last year, but he doesn’t have the upside of either Wright (not brothers). Freshman Brandan of North Carolina and sophomore Julian of Kansas, would both be first overall picks in drafts without Durant and Oden. All three fit perfectly with the up-tempo, versatile lineup I’m trying to build, so the choice is dependant on who goes third and who fits best. Right now, most people think of Noah as the third pick, but that’s just the result of his name being the most prominent, Brandan’s the most talented and on draft day, I think that pulls more weight with Philadelphia, Memphis, Seattle, or whomever selects third. So, the Celtics, under my esteemed direction, would take Noah. I think Julian could be the better pro, but Noah’s shot blocking and low post passing vision are just too important for this team.

Part of rebuilding with youngsters means finding veterans who can teach the kids how to win. You can ask Jerry Krause what happens if you don’t surround the kids with some balancing experience; call it the Charles Oakley corollary. So, it’s time to wheedle out some youth for some veterans. Not too many. You want to toss the kids against the wall and see who sticks, but you also need the Oakley factor. A veteran who know what’s required of a winning club. The Spurs are an exemplary organization and they have two players who might be available, whom I’d want to bring in for the Oak-factor. Bruce Bowen and Brent Barry are both on the far side of their career, but both have contributed to winning teams and both are professionals. Either would work, but given this team’s need for defense, I’d try to pry Bowen from San Antonio. While he’s no longer the shutdown defender who makes up for his stunted offence by pestering Kobe Bryant into 5-21 nights, Bowen’s still capable of playing eighteen minutes of hard basketball. He’s a good locker room guy, and he’ll work well with the kids. Obviously he’s been an integral piece of what Greg Popovich has built in Texas, but I think this offseason, the Spurs will take a serious look at how they can get younger, to keep pace with the Suns and Mavericks in the West.

There’s no way for the Celtics to make a straight up trade with the Spurs for Bowen, but if he’s included in their previous deal with Charlotte, then a three way trade that sends a re-signed Gerald Wallace to San Antonio, gives them a younger replacement for Bowen. To facilitate, the Celtics include Ryan Gomes with Pierce in their offer to Charlotte. It’s a small token, but the Bobcats have no place for Wallace once Pierce is onboard and Gomes is a useful, energy player off the bench.

I’d still like this team to acquire another two, or three veterans, because right now, as the roster is constructed, it would be too young, but young teams benefit from running, and this team would run, on every possession, all game long. Felton, Rondo and Telfair are each perfect for an up-tmepo attack, Gerald Green, Durant, and Noah would each out pace their respective counterparts, and the positional depth would allow for frequent fresh legs. The team’s power forwards, Al Jefferson and Sean May might not be thoroughbreds in the Amare Stoudemire mold, but they are integral the process. Jefferson and May would not beat their defenders down court, but they’d add an extra dimension to the attack. When the Showtime Lakers were known for sprinting on every possession, the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was not leading the charge, instead he ran down the floor and set himself up in the low block. When the break failed, Magic Johnson merely pulled the ball up and Kareem’s ability made for an easy transition to the half court offence. Jefferson and May are obviously no Kareem’s, but they are both adept at scoring in the low block.

Jefferson also serves as the teams most important trade chip. In the middle of next season, after watching the team develop, Celtics brass could decide that they need more savvy up front, perhaps that would coincide with when the Wolves decide to finally part with Kevin Garnett. A package of Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract, and Charlotte’s 2008 pick would have to make the Wolves listen. Maybe it isn’t enough, but with the Celtics roster depth, they’d have other options to sweeten the deal.

PG – Raymond Felton, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair
SG – Gerald Green, Delonte West, Tony Allen
SF – Kevin Durant, Bruce Bowen, Wally Szczerbiak
PF – Al Jefferson, Sean May, Brian Scalabrine
C – Joakim Noah, Kendrick Perkins, Theo Ratliff

They’re young, just precociously young, but they’re also deep and talented. This team would lose some early battles, but by season’s end they’d be showing the kind of improvement to give hope for 2008 and beyond.