Who'll End Up in Cooperstown.

Today the Hall of Fame will induct eighteen new members into the Cooperstown ranks. This is an abnormally large number, which headlines reliever Bruce Sutter and seventeen deserving players from the Negro Leagues. While most of the Negro Leaguers wont be alive to bask in the recognition they so richly deserve, the ceremonies do offer an appropriate time to glance into the Major Leagues and question the candidacies of those currently playing.

The Locks:

Nine major leaguers could retire tomorrow and be automatic, punch the first ballot Hall of Famers: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, and Ivan Rodriguez. The three names here that people will dispute are Glavine, Bonds, and ARod. So those are the only ones I’ll comment on.

Those who question Glavine haven’t taken the time to look at the numbers. When Maddux passed 300 wins, people claimed it was the last time we’d see that number breached, but after a resurgent season with the Mets Glavine is now within 14 wins of three hundred. He will get there, but even if he doesn’t with two Cy Youngs, a World Series MVP, five 20 win seasons, a .600 winning percentage, and a Hall of Fame monitor (compiled by Baseball Reference, with 100 equaling a likely HoF) of 157, Glavine is a lock. Go to Baseball Reference and look at what he accomplished for the Braves, he was --- and seemingly still is --- very, very good.

Bonds and Rodriguez are both obvious Hall of Famers whose candidacies are being questioned, Bonds for steroids and ARod because he signed the largest contract in sporting history and isn’t Derek Jeter (although he’s better). Ok, Bonds is really very easy. Over the last five he was, steroids or no, the best hitter ever. A better five year run than Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, or even Babe Ruth ever produced. So most voters will justify his inclusion upon that alone. Those who are bothered by the steroids --- and you’d have to be incredibly naïve at this point to believe he didn’t knowingly use them --- will justify Bonds’ inclusion, by the reality that he would have been a HoF if he’d retired after the 2000 season, or before his head started dwarfing sun light in nearby communities. ARod is frustrating, because I never used to be one of his supporters. For whatever reason, I just wasn’t a fan, but I respected him. These days I feel as though I am defending him in every other column; ten days ago, in one swing, ARod hit his 2000th hit and 450th home run. He’s the youngest ever to 450, has two MVPs, a batting title, a Gold Glove, a career .307 batting average and .962 OPS. He’s played enough seasons to qualify --- with a ridiculous HoF monitor of 250. Yes, 40,000 New Yorkers booing him with every non beer swallowed breath, seems to be enticing him to throw worse than guys on my beer league softball team. And yes, right now I don’t see his time in New York ending well, but this wont stop his plaque being enshrined in Cooperstown. New Yorkers, you are watching one of the greatest players of all time, accept it, put your hands slowly together palm to palm and your team will actually benefit.

These next five are Hall of Famers and will get in, possibly not on the first ballot, but eventually: Ken Griffey Jr (with Bonds, the best player of the 1990s; will retire with over 600 home runs; shame injuries drained his iconic status), Manny Ramirez (flakey, but just an awesome, awesome hitter for over eleven years --- probably will retire with more RBIs than anyone except Hank Aaron and Ruth), Craig Biggio (despite what Cub fans think, better than Ryne Sandberg, possibly an all time top five second baseman, probably passes 3000 hits to cement the issue), and Frank Thomas (hard to remember after his past few injury plagued seasons, but he dominated the early nineties, with five straight years of an OPS over 1.000 and two MVPs), Mariano Rivera (simply put, the best reliever of all time, dominating, most relievers it’s an uphill battle, but he’s a lock, quite possibly on the first try).

In Their Prime and Getting Close:

Four guys are carving out the path and are within five seasons of punching their ballots:

Vladimir Guerrero – Probably needs five more good years, but likely retires with more than 2500 hits and 500 home runs. He was completely unknown in Montreal, he destroyed pitchers, swinging at anything even near the strike zone and hitting it hard. Finally was recognized upon arriving in Anaheim and still making pitchers pay for bad pitches on or off the plate.

Andrew Jones – will be a unique player in the Hall; never developed the plate discipline which is expected of great players, but his combination of power and phenomenal defense will see him enshrined. Only 29, some projections have him topping 600 home runs.

Jim Thome – Ok, big Jim doesn’t really count as in his prime, but he is closing in on the Hall, but isn’t quite there yet. He will pass five hundred home runs sometime early next year, and while the steroid era has eroded the importance of that benchmark, when looked at in combination of his career .975 OPS and 1500 RBIs he will be enshrined.

Derek Jeter – I almost put Jeter in the lock category. If some beauty came along and persuaded Jeter to leave baseball and join her in populating a desert island with Amazonian children, would the voters select him to the hall? Honestly, I think given the whole Yankee captain, four World Series, 8 division titles persona they actually would, but another five or six years will mean that his career numbers match his team accomplishments. He just passed 2,000 hits and 3,000 seems well within reach. Some --- myself included --- have wondered whether he’ll make a run at 4,000. That would require playing well into his 40s, but either way, he’ll eventually be enshrined in the Hall.

Ichiro Suzuki – A very interesting case study. When his time comes, will voters count his impressive body of work from Japan? His total numbers in America will never match most of Canton, he just came too late. But he has produced at an unparalleled rate and another five years will give him the requisite number of years in MLB and I think that the voters give him the benefit of the doubt that he’d have reached 3,000 hits.

Nearing the End, Sitting On the Fence:

These seven guys are within shouting distance of the end and can best be described as fence sitters.

Chipper Jones – For every analyst I hear who says that Chipper is a lock, I hear another two who say it’ll be a dog fight. He’s 33 years old, has an MVP award and solid career numbers across the board (.303, .401, .538); however, there’s nothing in his numbers which stand out. In the era of the Home Run, Chipper wont hit 500, nor will he top 3000 hits. His supporters argue that he played the majority of his career at third, where his numbers compare to George Brett. Brett played more games at third than Chipper, but Chipper has been the more productive offensive player. Of course, Chipper played in the power era, while Brett played in the hit and run era. I think he sits on the sideline for a long time, but eventually gets nomination.

Todd Helton – Entering the season, his career batting average was .337, 22nd all time. That would suggest a hall of famer. Of course, he’ll be judged for playing all those years in Colorado where the ball flew a little too far. Also, with the Colorado factor and the fact that he played first base in the late nineties, early millennium his home run numbers aren’t very impressive. He has two seasons with 40+, but has suddenly become a 20 HR hitter. The next five years will show all, if he regains some of his power while maintaining his average, then his career will be comparable to future Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, but if he continues to knock only 20 a year (he’s on pace for 19 this year) then his career will be comparable to close but no cigar Don Mattingly. At which point, it will depend on how high his average remains. If I were hedging my bets, something tells me that Helton is on the decline and that his numbers (with the Coors Field Factor) fall short of the Hall.

Jeff Kent – I always like former Jays, especially ones who were in some way involved in their championship years (even if it was only to be traded away at the deadline for a Cone-headed pitcher). Kent presents a unique case, in that he wasn’t truly great until his 30s. It was only in his thirties that he started consistently mashing the ball. This includes his MVP in 2000, which helps his case; as does being the all time HR leader at second. He certainly has been a very productive second baseman in his thirties, but for his era remains third behind Biggio and Roberto Alomar, who both were far superior with the glove and better (for longer) with the bat. He’s 38 and sitting on the fence. This season he’s been injured and only knocked 9 home runs, so it’s hard to say how long he can hold on, but it seems like he’ll struggle to top 375 HRs. It helps to hold the record at second, but with Biggio and Alomar being better, I think Kent’s fight is uphill and I doubt he reaches the numbers he needs.

John Smoltz – Another Brave, in Smoltz’s case the player against whom he’ll be compared is obviously Dennis Eckersley. Eck retired just shy of 200 wins (197), which Smoltz is now within shouting distance of (184). Of course, Eck is widely regarded as the second best closer of all time and has 234 more saves than Smoltz. Smoltz however has a giant post season reputation, so I’d wager that 200 is going to be the big number for him. If he passes 200 wins, then the voters give Smoltz credit for his three very good years as a closer and for his sterling 15-4, 2.66 career postseason record.

Curt Schilling – Another player with a great postseason record. The big rightie has no Cy Youngs, he only just topped 200 wins, and he has a career ERA of 3.40. But he also has a World Series Co-MVP and he accomplished something that no star Boston pitcher has accomplished since Babe Ruth, he won the World Series with the Red Sox. His overall numbers are a little shy, but enough people (I didn’t say everyone and I didn’t even say me, but enough people) feel that if you needed one victory and could choose from anyone who pitched in the nineties or new millennium, you’d take Schilling. Over Randy, Clemens, Maddux, and Pedro. In games that really matter, that’s how good he’s been over his career. He was the ace of a Phillies team that went to the World Series in 1993, the ace of a Diamondbacks team that won in 2001 and the ace of that prodigal Red Sox team in 2004. I think that all of that adds up to trump the numbers and Schilling joins his bloody sock in Cooperstown.

Mike Mussina – The knocks against Mussina are twofold: No 20 win season, no Cy Young. Lets be clear, both of these are absurd. Mussina finished in the top 5 of Cy voting six times (with two other 6th place finishes). Wins? Seventeen – twice, eighteen – three times, nineteen – twice; in 1994 he won 16 games in 24 starts before the season was swallowed by the bloated throat of greed. So, holding not winning 20 against him is arbitrary and ridiculous. His career win totals are 236 going into tonight’s start. In this day and age, he will pitch until he’s over 40, so I foresee another 35 wins in his future. 300 and an automatic spot are too far away, but 270 is possible. Yes he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, but for two decades he’s been one of the best and that combination of being very good for so long will see him enshrined, not the first time his name comes up, but the second or third.

Trevor Hoffman – Hoffman will retire as the all time saves leader, but Lee Smith will tell you that “that and a paid admission will get you entrance into the Hall of Fame.” Two things hurt Hoffman, first he’s played his entire career in San Diego, which has provided him precious little time in the limelight. Second, while he will hold the all time save record when he retires, he’ll almost certainly be passed by Rivera before his time for election into the Hall of Fame comes up. Then I believe Hoffman will join Goose Gossage and Smith as relievers fighting an uphill battle to get recognition.

Great Career, but Not Quite:

Gary Sheffield has been a very good player. Actually, he’s been a great player, but I think he becomes this generation’s Jim Rice. Sheffield will almost certainly pass 2500 hits and 500 home runs, which a decade ago would have guaranteed enshrinement, but the steroid era will alter the requirements and Sheffield who admitted (“unknowingly”) using steroids and who has been (at best) cantankerous to the public will be left on the outside looking in. Carlos Delgado has put up great numbers, but in this era they aren’t great enough. Jim Edmonds combined gold glove defense with 30 HR power, but he just didn’t do it long enough. Johnny Damon has been idolized and reviled, but unless he adds another 1200 hits then the man who “looks like Jesus, acts like Judas, and throws like Mary” will be left coiffing hair ointment outside the Hall. Given the idolization of the Yankees, it would never really surprise me to see Bernie Williams elected. Of course, while Williams was great and perhaps the second most important player on those four Yankee championship teams, his career numbers don’t add up to Cooperstown. The same can be said for David Wells, Andy Pettitte, and Jamie Moyer. Very good, occasionally great, but like Mussina, their great years weren’t frequent enough and unlike Mussina, their longevity isn’t enough to push them through.

Great Start, talk to me in a Decade (Min. Five Years):

Obviously the top of this list is Albert Pujols, no explanation necessary. Johan Santana and Roy Halladay are Cy Young winners who are early in what might be Hall of Fame pitching careers. Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano don’t have that hardware, but they could win it in any given year. It might surprise most casual observers who only see his strikeouts, but Adam Dunn is projected to hit 600 home runs, with a .400 OBP. His case will be extremely unique, but interesting nonetheless. Michael Young and Miguel Tejada are some of the best hitters ever at shortstop, of course they also are some of the worst fielders at a position in which defense is most important, like Paul Molitor it might depend how much they pad their stats as DHs.

Finally, I want to mention Nomar Garciaparra who at this point will not come close to the Hall, but would have been a surefire candidate had injuries not shafted him. Look at what he accomplished in 1999 (.357, .418, .603) and 2000 (.372, .434, .599). Those were at ages 25 and 26, the next year he injured his wrist, and since, even when he’s been healthy he hasn’t been the same. Shame, because I always liked Nomar.

The rich get richer, while the poor get… nothing.

When the season started I wrote that on paper the Jays were as good as the Yankees or Sox entering the year, but that the Sox and Yanks have the advantage in season, as they have more resources to bring in necessary midseason help. Throughout the season, the Sox have exercised their deep farm system, by getting in season pitching help in the form of Manny Delcarmen, Jon Lester and Craig Hansen. Neither the Jays nor the Yankees have quality arms that they can bring up from the minors to help their cause, but resources aren’t just about your minor leagues; today, in an attempt to fill the outfield hole created by Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield’s injuries, the Yankees flexed their financial might by acquiring Phillie outfielder Bobby Abreu. On the block for weeks, Abreu has been rumored to be headed everywhere, but his expensive price tag and depreciating home run rates meant most teams wanted the Phillies to pick up part of his contract. The money isn’t a concern for the Yankees, who also agreed to take on the contract of Cory Lidle. Having watched Lidle as a Jay, I cannot expect he’ll provide the Yanks with much in the American League East, but taking his contract along with all of Abreu’s meant that the Yankees didn’t have to give up top pitching prospect Phillip Hughes. Abreu takes nothing away from their Major League roster and nothing serious from the minors. Depite his depreciating HRs, his high on base percentage will make him an extremely useful player for NY and the Yanks will slot him in behind ARod and in front of Posada. Anything they get from Lidle just counts as gravy. It’s the kind of deal that J.P. Ricciardi couldn’t have made for the Jays and it’s the reason that despite being 10 games over .500 the Jays will be on the outside looking in come October.

The Human Drama of Athletic Competition

Is there anything more amusing than listening to an announcer say, ‘it’s one of those times you wish the camera would give them a little space.” Ahhh… really? Did they not realize the irony of their words as their networks cameras zoomed in closer and closer on Tiger Woods’ emotional hug with his wife Elin. Of course, they were right, it was a moment which would best have been shared by the pair alone, but there it was live on television for us all to watch. And make no mistake, there was something special about watching Woods’ victory in the 2006 British Open.

Like most casual golf fans, I tend only to cheer for Tiger Woods and Phil Mickleson. If for no other reason than because those are the most recognizable names. Yet it is easier to cheer for Phil, because he’s so human. His faults are glorious, his meltdown at the US Open confirming that even in this matured stage of his career there remains a stubborn, defiant maverick. He wears his emotions on his sleeve and corrals fans with his easy, friendly manner. Tiger corrals fans in a different way, through greatness. From his emergence as a teenager in the Mid-90s, Tiger has done nothing to dissuade the prediction that he will retire as the greatest player in history. The emotions which come along with Tiger only seem to emphasize that prediction. The fiery, arrogant swagger which has seen countless fist pumps after countless breathtaking shots only intensifies the image of Woods as the most driven athlete of his time. The emotion after victory, the sign of his lust to be the greatest. There was no drama, no surprises, no Phil-like meltdowns or humanity. Yet, as the great Jim McKay famously said, “it is the human drama of athletic competition which drives us.” It is easier to cheer for Phil, because he is so accessible, but Tiger has never given us that human drama. He has seemed so perfect, so driven, so destined to eclipse the great names of golf. Along the way, his father, Earl Woods, has been there with the victorious hug at every Major victory; that is, until this one.

After the senior Woods’ death from cancer on May 3, Woods disappeared from the lime light. He grieved, as we all would in the privacy of those that loved him. He did not play golf until the middle of June and the US Open, which of course was the perfect time to return. Given Woods’ sense of history, his unparalleled drive, and his devotion to his father returning to a tournament which concluded on Fathers Day was the Hollywood answer to a grieving son. Unfortunately, the human drama of athletic competition is far more interesting than that and Tiger Woods missed his first cut at Major. His first Major without his father, his first missed cut. Woods, who had been so metronomic throughout his career, was now so blessedly human.

Which made his march up 18 at Royal Liverpool so special. After jumping out to a one stroke lead on Friday, Woods had everyone questioning whether his historic closing abilities would be affected by his father’s passing, but despite the best efforts of a valiant Chris DiMarco --- himself mourning the recent loss of a beloved parent, his mother --- Woods showed us that this was his moment, his and Earl’s time. On the final hole, victory three shots and a short putt away, Woods left his birdie putt a hair short. This allowed him to tap the ball in for victory, which he did even as tears were exploding from his eyes. It was that human drama which made it compelling television. Woods seemed incapable of letting go of his caddie Steve Williams; as if Williams has suddenly become Woods’ father and if he let go, Woods would collapse to the ground, like the child of Earl Woods he will eternally remain. Finally Woods let go, but his face still contorted in equal parts agony and jubilation, he quickly found the loving embrace of his wife. It was such a simple life moment: the transition from the loving, supportive embrace of a parent, to the loving, supportive embrace of a spouse. It was a personal moment and as Jim Nantz so ironically observed, it was one of those moments where you wish the cameras would give them space, but there on television for all to see, it was the thrill of victory… and the agony of defeat… the human drama of athletic competition… it was a moment we shouldn’t have watched and it was a moment which exemplified why we watch. Congratulations Tiger, it was your moment and we are all fortunate to have shared it with you.

A Balk and a Walk...

On a day when that pair of Sox the Jays are chasing both lost, the Blue Jays blew a tangible chance to gain ground. In the fifth inning Ted Lilly (whom I'd prefer not to criticize, because he pitched a beauty) balked in the Yankees third run, and in the seventh inning Justin Speier walked in the winning run. A balk and a walk, that's what a good day of baseball from the Jays comes down to. Once again the Jays' starter left the field with the lead and once again the Jays lost, but it would be unfair to drop the blame solely on Brandon League, Scott Downs, and Speier. The offence did nobody any favours by going 2-12 with runners in scoring position. Against a team like the Yankees you cannot have enough people cross the plate and each of those missed opportunities left extra stress upon their pitchers. Given how their week has gone, this loss had to sting, missing a golden opportunity to pick up a game on both the White Sox in the Wild Card race and the Red Sox in the AL East. Still, victory tomorrow would make it three of four from the Big Bad Empire, which is a good end to their homestand.

Hillenbrand Update

It seems that J.P. Ricciardi had no trouble moving Shea Hillenbrand, as he sent the outcast (along with reliever Vinnie Chulk) to San Francisco for reliever Jeremy Accardo. The reliever swap is an upgrade, as Accardo has two good pitches and solid plate control, but the real deal for the Jays is saving almost two million for Hillenbrand. Is it the most Ricciardi could have gotten for Hillenbrand on Monday, probably not, but it remains a solid deal for the Blue Jays.

5 Misconceptions About Shea Hillenbrand...

We know two things for sure: 1) Shea Hillenbrand is finished as a Blue Jay and 2) we will never really know why. For two days now, the brew-ha in the Blue Jays clubhouse involving Hillenbrand and Jays skipper John Gibbons has been sports talk show fodder. Theories have abounded, leaks have been made, but as the important maxim says, there are three sides to every story, in this case, there’s Hillenbrand’s side, the Blue Jays’ side, and the truth. The reality of course, is that we will never know the truth, but we can at least break the story down and eliminate some of the misconceptions which are shading our understanding of the story.

1) That the Jays should have traded Shea Hillenbrand two months ago… there’s nothing I love more than when players like Hillenbrand go public to the media with claims like, “I don’t want to be here, they should trade me.” (for the record, Hillenbrand said they should have traded him two months ago when, reportedly, his relationship with manager John Gibbons fractured). Without fail, these players are already on the market. The Jays would have traded Hillenbrand two months ago, if there had been a trade that made them better, but there wasn’t; and that’s because…

2) That Hillenbrand is an impact bat… without becoming all statistical on you (I’d hate for you to think I can back up any of my opinions with intelligence), lets look at a few numbers about Shea Hillenbrand. In 2002, Hillenbrand’s OPS before the all star break was .821, after the all star game it was .752; in 2003 .868 in the first half, before dropping all the way to .689 in the second half. In 2004 those numbers normalized, as Shea hit .823 before the break and .800 after, but in 2005 there was more of the same .815 down to .761. This year Shea was good in April (.861) and smoldering in May (.946), but unfortunately the season actually runs six months. In June and July his OPS dropped to .739 and then .652. He is a good hitter in the early months of the season, but for whatever reason, Shea Hillenbrand is not a very productive hitter late in the season; and it is late in the season that the Blue Jays need productive bats.

3) That it matters what happened in the club house… Breaking the debate down to the bare essential, the dispute is over playing time. Hillenbrand felt he deserved more and Gibbons felt otherwise. I have no problem with Hillenbrand wanting to be in the lineup every day, if you don’t want to be in lineup every day and your name isn’t Manny Ramierez, then you shouldn’t be in baseball, but at the end of the day, the manager’s job is to fill out the lineup card with the players who will give the team the best chance to win. Apparently Hillenbrand didn’t like John Gibbons and that’s fine. I’ve had plenty of bosses I didn’t like, you know what I did? Sucked it up and went to work. If Hillenbrand wanted more time in the field, then he should have worked at becoming a better fielder, because he isn’t as good a third baseman as Troy Glaus and he isn’t as good a first baseman as Lyle Overbay. So, why would he start over them?

4) That cutting him will adversely affect his value… The truth is that Hillenbrand is a hot head. When Theo Epstein traded him from the Red Sox, Shea famously used a derogatory word for homosexuals about his former GM. Shea also overvalues his own worth, after the same trade, Shea insinuated that the Red Sox would regret trading him just as the club famously regrets trading Jeff Bagwell. Well, Jeff Bagwell has 449 home runs and a stamped ticket to the Hall of Fame. Bagwell, Hillenbrand is not. Baseball is a small business, other GM’s know about Hillenbrand, they know he’s an aggressive player with a temper. They also know that he hits better in the first half than the second. This spat isn’t going to change anybodies opinion of Shea. Yes, they know that the Jays have to trade Shea and in ten days, but the trade deadline is little more than ten days away anyhow. This means they only would have had three extra days if they’d kept things quiet, it also means that teams who desperately need a bat in their hopes of making the playoffs, will inevitably deal for Shea. The return wont be great, but as noted above, it never would have been.

5) That cutting him will adversely affect the Jays… It has been confirmed by players that Hillenbrand wrote on the clubhouse white board, “Play for yourselves. Play for your paycheck. The ship is sinking." High expectations have distracted people from the reality that this is the best Jays team since the strike, but even so they have occasionally looked listless and given away games they should be winning. In a race with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, you just cannot do that. It might be harsh to term Hillenbrand a cancer, but it’s clear that his attitude wasn’t what the Jays wanted. Gibbons and Ricciardi coming down hard on him is an example to the rest of the team. Intensity is a good thing and trauma and turmoil often bring teams together for a stretch run. With two big wins over the Yankees, the Jays seem to be better off without Shea Hillenbrand in the lineup and the controversy surrounding his departure seems to have brought new intensity into the club. We may not know any more about what actually transpired in the Jays’ locker room Wednesday night, but if the Jays make a run to the playoffs, we will be able to look back at this week as the injection of adrenaline that their season needed.

Can a Season Be Lost With Two Bad Innings?

Two bad innings was all it took to produce two bad losses, two bad innings. And lets be clear about things, two losses to the Texas Rangers, at home no less, in late July just cannot be acceptable to a team attempting to catch (and more importantly pass) the New York Yankees and either the Chicago White Sox or Boston Red Sox. While four upcoming games against the Yanks will present the opportunity to gain some ground on them, catching the pair of Sox is seeming less and less likely by the day. Before the two losses, the Jays were 3.5 back of Boston and 5.5 back of the White Sox. Two wins leave them status quo with Boston and 4.5 back of the Sox, instead they’re 5.5 and 6.5 back respectively. Insurmountable, well no, but certainly daunting. When looking at a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs, it isn’t just enough to look at how many games they’re back, you must also consider how many teams they must leapfrog to land in the promised land. It isn’t enough at this point for the Jays to string together a bunch of wins, they need one of those striped Sox to start losing AND they need that perennial playoff team from New York to start losing (and, because of those two bad innings, if they want to win the Wild Card, they also need the Minnesota Twins to start losing). All three teams going on a losing streak… possible? Sure, probable? No.

So, where did things go wrong? Going into this series against Texas, the last two games looked ominous, as the Jays were sending Casey Jansen (he of the 6.46 ERA since June 1st) and Shawn Marcum (in his first major league start) to the mound. Yet both pitched remarkably well and both kept the Jays in the game (Marcum actually left with the lead and had Jansen been lifted after the 6th he too would have), but the Jays laid two eggs allowing the Rangers to post a 5 run 8th on Tuesday and a four run 7th on Wednesday. The blame can be laid at the feet of so many, John Gibbons for questionable managerial choices, Justin Speier for his two run debacle on Tuesday and for allowing the game winning two run double (both of which were tagged to the departed Jansen) on Wednesday, the infield defense for what has become routine botches of simple plays, and lastly the listless hitters who, with the exception of a nine run outpouring on Monday, scored 7 runs in 3 games. Seven runs in 26 innings isn’t exactly what one would expect from their supposedly high powered offence, is it? You could argue that the Jays were without Troy Glaus, Alex Rios, and Shea Hillenbrand, but that still leaves Reed Johnson, Frank Cattalanotto, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina, and the smoldering Aaron Hill. And of course, after his curse laden tirade Wednesday, Hillenbrand wont be returning to the Jays.

GM J.P. Ricciardi will likely find a trading partner in the next ten days for the right handed hitter, but if in May ---- when he was hitting .340 --- the best Hillenbrand could wield was the washed up Adam Kennedy, then I’m not entirely sure what hope there is that J.P. can get anything to help the ball club over the final two months. Whoever you believe in this sordid affair, and thus far I am content to sit on the fence, it is bad for the team; bad for morale, bad for their lineup, bad for their prospects. Given the Jays’ trouble this season at shortstop, I’d be asking the Angels about Erick Aybar. Aybar is one of the top rated shortstops in the minors (most expect him to be ready to start next season), but his path to the majors in Anaheim is blocked by current shortstop Orlando Cabrera and super prospect Brandon Wood. Hillenbrand likely isn’t enough to tempt Anaheim to part with Aybar, but it’d be worth a call.

Other than Shea, the Jays don’t have much to work with when seeking upgrades for this season. There are no major league ready prospects in their system, nobody to tempt someone into to trading them relief help. August should see the return of Alex Rios and Gustavo Chacin, but neither can be considered locks to perform. While Chacin’s record was inflated by the Jays early season power exploits, his pitching was actually quite poor, and Rios --- seen taking cuts yesterday --- looks fifteen pounds lighter than before that errant foul ball led to a staph infection. So, should the Jays forget about this season, trade Ted Lilly, Frank Cattalanotto, and Bengie Molina? Difficult question really. The one thing the Jays have working for them is the schedule. Over the next two months, the Jays play each of the teams they are chasing (most notably the Yanks, against whom the have 13 remaining games), so the possibility remains to earn meaningful results against their competitors. Of course, therein also lies the rub, the Jays have four series against the Yanks, two each with the Red Sox and Oakland, one with Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, and Anaheim. That might be the hardest remaining schedule in baseball. Sure there are still games against lemmings (Baltimore and KC), but there are also series against Seattle, Cleveland and Tampa Bay all of whom look like lemmings based upon their record, but are playing good baseball and cannot be discounted (and no, it wasn’t an error that Tampa was included there). Their next eleven games should be telling, if the Jays finish the month with anything less than an 8-3 record against New York, Seattle and Oakland, then J.P. should spend July 31st burning up the phone lines. While I’d hate to see them concede, the Jays desperately need to replenish their farm system to compete in future seasons, something which can only be accomplished by relinquishing current assets.

Should "E"Rod Leave NY

If you were New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman, would you trade Alex Rodriguez? No, of course not. Unless you are swayed by the unjustified notion of “clutch” you wouldn’t dream of trading the player with the most realistic chance of eclipsing Barry Bonds’ home run record (or Hank Aaron’s if indeed MLB manages to force Barry’s hand into retirement). After weeks of being booed by the largely gut motivated Yankee fans, ARod committed three errors last night; while the Yankees still won, the third baseman woke up this morning to tabloids claiming it was time for the Yanks to part with the beleaguered third baseman. While a trade may be in the best interest of ARod, it obviously isn’t in the best interest of the Yankees. Unless they are sending Rodriguez across town to the Mets for David Wright, there is not another third baseman who reasonably can help them over the next four years as much as the 25 million dollar man. Of course, therein lies the problem: ARod will always be held to some unreachable and absurd standard because of his contract and because he ended up in New York, where the shadow of Derek Jeter shrouds everything he does. The summer ARod arrived in New York, he almost landed in Boston where he would have been replacing the beloved Nomar Garciapara at short. Yet, despite the love bestowed by the Fenway faithful upon Nomar, ARod would have been revered. That’s how things are in Boston where despite their extreme, Sox fans love their players. Manny Ramierez botches a play in the field, claims the because of the adoration (not booing, adoration) of the fans he wants to be traded, well that’s just Manny being Manny. In New York, the fans are either rabidly loyal, or rabidly not. There’s little rhyme or reason for this, other than a perception of someone being a true “Yankee.” Paul O’Neil who played most of his career for the Cincinnati Reds was a true Yankee, Roger Clemens, who played all of his pre-Yankee life with New York’s two biggest division rivals was a true Yankee, Derek Jeter, who is from Michigan is a true Yankee, ARod who is a native New Yorker, played in Seattle and Texas isn’t a true Yankee. So, should the Yanks trade ARod? Of course not, should ARod ask to be traded? Perhaps. Leaving New York might seem like a defeat; no championship, vilified by the fans and press, he would be leaving with his tail between his legs, but with three or four great years left (potentially at shortstop), does it make sense for Rodriguez to move on, forget this experience and get a fresh start somewhere else?

Realistically any move by/for ARod would have to occur in the offseason, but just for fun lets look at three possible trades for the erstwhile shortstop:

ARod and Bubba Crosby to Toronto for Vernon Wells, A.J. Burnett, and Eric Hinske – I have no idea whether ARod would agree to cross the border (some guys are weird like that), but all things considered it would be a great fit for him. Canadian fans are far more laid back than New Yorkers, the Rogers Center is a friendly park for a right hander and in 19 games a year he can try sticking it to the Yankees. For NY the trade isn’t terrible, Vernon Wells is a MVP caliber player and he would fill the outfield hole of the departing Gary Sheffield. Burnett is a risk, but the Yanks are desperate for pitchers and can afford to take Pavano-like risks, and Hinske is a great bench player who’s 5 million salary is too much for the Jays, but fine for someone coming off the Yanks’ pine. For the Jays talent wise the trade makes sense, because Vernon is likely leaving after next year and Alex Rios seems quite capable of playing center. ARod would fill the gaping hole at short and give the Jays a spectacular infield. But, the trade leaves them short a number two pitcher, which is harder to replace than anything except a number one pitcher. While the money in the deal is pretty close on a per year basis, ARod’s remaining salary dwarfs that of the Jays’ three and replacing Burnett in the rotation would be costly. No doubt the Yanks could toss in some cash, but they don’t really have a reason to do so, which is a shame, because an infield of Overbay, Hill, ARod, and Troy Glauss would be worth a LOT of wins.

ARod to the Cubs for Mark Prior and Felix Pie (AAA) – The Cubs need to do something, but seem incapable of admitting that the Prior-Wood experiment is over. While blowing the whole thing up and starting over makes a lot of sense, letting Wood walk and trading Prior for ARod would eliminate their dependence on the injured duo, while keeping the fans believing that next year is THE year (which, like the hundred previous ones, it isn’t). Prior could be perfect for the Yanks, the ace going forward to replace Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina and Felix Pie starts in the outfield for them next year. The Cubs never have to play Neifi Perez again, ARod goes to a high profile, but forgiving market and the Yanks improve themselves long term, seems like a winner for everyone; if, of course, Prior can stay healthy…

ARod to the Angels for Garret Anderson, Darrin Erstad, Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, and Ervin Santana – Perhaps the best spot for ARod, the low key LA fans will cheer him, Vladimir Guerrero will protect him in the lineup, and the Angels will be perennial contenders. The Angels farm system is deep and there are any number of great players from whom the Yanks could ask. Wood, a shortstop who would be the Yanks starting third baseman next year and Santana who’s already a VERY good Major Leaguer would likely be the Yanks choice. To help with the cost, the Yanks also take two costly declining players off the Angels hands. Anderson is still reasonably useful, at least as the left handed bat in a platoon situation (although it should be criminal at this point to leave him in against lefties) and Erstad is (wink, wink) a great clubhouse guy, and ahhh, uhmm a good defender at first…? Whatever, Santana and Wood make it a decent deal for New York and the Yanks are the one team who can afford to have Anderson and Erstad on their roster. For the Angels, losing Santana hurts, bad, but pitching is a strength, even without Santana, and they desperately need somebody besides Vlady in that lineup. They’ll be better next year, simply because Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales will be with the team full time, but ARod would push them head and shoulders above the competition in the AL West.